TheNiche Posted October 25, 2006 Share Posted October 25, 2006 I don't have any stats on total Houston-area households involved in oil or oil services, I'd guess it is between 500K and 1M.According to my latest DATABook, energy-dependent base employment numbers 311,600, which comprises 47.9% of base employment and 13.0% of total employment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scharpe St Guy Posted March 8, 2007 Share Posted March 8, 2007 Hello Everyone,I was browsing quite a few MLS listings last night and noticed either the large BTSA's, > 3% Buyer Agent Commission, agents comments stating bring all offers, buyer will throw in X and Y for sale, etc.... While at the same time a website that I loathe and love zillow.com has shown quite a few areas of town that I track home prices going down. Homes in my subdivision of Broadmoor are staying on the market a long time unless they are very much under priced. On the flip of that my wifes real estate office is bursting at the seams with business and yet my company which builds homes is seeing very little traffic. Anyone noticing anything out there or have data we can all digest???Thanks,Scharpe St Guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danax Posted March 8, 2007 Share Posted March 8, 2007 Anyone noticing anything out there or have data we can all digest???In the past few weeks, there has been a HUGE shakedown in the "subprime" lender arena, with several major lenders going under due to high default rates. As a result, the guidelines have stiffened tremendously for anyone with a low credit score and the trend is moving away from doing 100% financing unless your score is decent.This tidal wave of defaults is just starting to swell and it'll be many years before it peaks. So, a lot of the lower-end borrowers credit-wise are suddenly out of the game completely and a lot of foreclosures will be coming onto the market, both of which should have a cooling effect on price appreciation, in some areas anyway.Texas might not feel it too badly. I think there's a positive correlation between lower income buyers and low credit scores so companies who cater to that market, like KB etc, might really find themselves with too much inventory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scharpe St Guy Posted March 8, 2007 Share Posted March 8, 2007 In the past few weeks, there has been a HUGE shakedown in the "subprime" lender arena, with several major lenders going under due to high default rates. As a result, the guidelines have stiffened tremendously for anyone with a low credit score and the trend is moving away from doing 100% financing unless your score is decent.This tidal wave of defaults is just starting to swell and it'll be many years before it peaks. So, a lot of the lower-end borrowers credit-wise are suddenly out of the game completely and a lot of foreclosures will be coming onto the market, both of which should have a cooling effect on price appreciation, in some areas anyway.Texas might not feel it too badly. I think there's a positive correlation between lower income buyers and low credit scores so companies who cater to that market, like KB etc, might really find themselves with too much inventory.Danax,Thank you for your post, my wife was talking to her mortgage person at the office and she was mentioning something about the 100% mortgages too. If everything you just said is true it presents some interesting opportunities to pick up some property however the buyers may not be there to resell to immediately. Thanks once again,Scharpe St Guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpbro Posted March 8, 2007 Share Posted March 8, 2007 I'm noticing continued very strong demand in the high-end (> $700K) market, at least inside the loop. Million dollar houses are moving fairly fast, i.e., in a month or two. I live in a modest house on a prominent corner lot, and I've had a lot of unsolicited interest, which I've never gotten in the last few years. For those of you interested in (sort of) mod houses, we are putting it on the market in a few weeks (2134 Macarthur).I'd be somewhat surpised to see a subprime squeeze in Houston, given the anomalously strong employment market here, unless there are exotic ARM conversions or something. The "fat cats" don't seem to be getting squeezed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltron Posted March 19, 2007 Share Posted March 19, 2007 I'd be somewhat surpised to see a subprime squeeze in Houston, given the anomalously strong employment market here, unless there are exotic ARM conversions or something. The "fat cats" don't seem to be getting squeezed!Fat cats never get squeezed...you know who does? First time home buyers.With the influx of entry-level townhouses and condos set to deliver in 2007 coupled with the seeping of the subprime crisis into the prime mortage market, I think you are going to see a big downturn for the condo/townhouse market for properties in the 200-350k range. These places are usually targeted to first-time homebuyers who rely on creative financing to afford their first digs.I'd be worried if you have a condo/townhouse inside the loop in the 200-350k range and are looking to unload in the next 2 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdbaker Posted March 19, 2007 Share Posted March 19, 2007 Fat cats never get squeezed...you know who does? First time home buyers.With the influx of entry-level townhouses and condos set to deliver in 2007 coupled with the seeping of the subprime crisis into the prime mortage market, I think you are going to see a big downturn for the condo/townhouse market for properties in the 200-350k range. These places are usually targeted to first-time homebuyers who rely on creative financing to afford their first digs.I'd be worried if you have a condo/townhouse inside the loop in the 200-350k range and are looking to unload in the next 2 years.I completely disagree. The inner loop townhouse/condo market is largely targeted at young professionals who are doing rather well in this economy. I suspect that subprime lending is much prevelant in the financing of all the tract housing being built outside the loop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted March 19, 2007 Share Posted March 19, 2007 I completely disagree. The inner loop townhouse/condo market is largely targeted at young professionals who are doing rather well in this economy. I suspect that subprime lending is much prevelant in the financing of all the tract housing being built outside the loop.Agreed. The other big market for townhomes in that price range is empty-nested boomers, but they very frequently have a pool of equity to draw from the sale of their previous home.In my estimation, the worst effects are going to be felt in the market up to about $200k. Its getting harder to find many townhomes inside the loop at that price anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TAK Posted March 20, 2007 Share Posted March 20, 2007 i think we're all overlooking a few things:1. Mean regression - Housing in Houston is WELL below the national average. Either the national average has to plummet or Houston (and Texas, for that matter) have to sky rocket. There will probably be a bit of both.2. Sub-prime lending is not *just* people with credit getting loans, yet that is a component. I'm guessing there are several "sub-prime" loans for houses ITL at $500k+. Someone who has A credit but doesn't have the income to buy the house that they just *know* is going to appreciate and they just know they will have no problem selling, can't go stated income and viola! "sub-prime" goodness... i could qualify for a house at $500k, but i would be an idiot to do so...Having said that, if the oil industry stays afloat, and more jobs come to Houston (where housing is cheap and the state is an employment at will state with very little union labor, therefore labor is cheap) we should see a little more appreciation. I think there is far too much land and too few barriers to building for there to be a 'bubble' in the Houston area. Maybe if gas hits $5.00/gallon... because all of the people that will get rich on that price will be living in River Oaks or Galveston or Dubai, and those who currently have a two hour commute will move into the city and get a motorcycle or scooter... until then, there is plenty of space between Houston and San Antonio to develop in search of "good schools".I'll say this, there has not been an uptick in my area... we have "bad schools". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banking214 Posted March 22, 2007 Share Posted March 22, 2007 I completely disagree. The inner loop townhouse/condo market is largely targeted at young professionals who are doing rather well in this economy. I suspect that subprime lending is much prevelant in the financing of all the tract housing being built outside the loop.Some of those young professionals had spotty credit and only could find financing on 2/28 ARMS at the time. If their credit has not improved, they are in for a hurt when the ARMS start adjusting. I have had a few prospective borrowers contact me that reside in Rice Military. After consulting with them, they have no options due to credit issues. Now their ARMS are set to mature and rates jumping from 6.25 to over 11% in one case. Either sell or foreclose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PapillionWyngs Posted March 22, 2007 Share Posted March 22, 2007 Papillion, Would you mind ellaborating?flipperI am so sorry - didn't see this until just now. Things in Clear Lake are moving slowly, still. Prices are really high. That's about all I had to elaborate with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mumbles Posted April 5, 2007 Share Posted April 5, 2007 Houses are moving more slowly outside the loop so I expect prices will start dropping. We should know for sure in a month or two as that is the biggest buying season. With the subprime lending crisis many people won't be able to get a loan anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1fd Posted April 5, 2007 Share Posted April 5, 2007 Houses are moving more slowly outside the loop so I expect prices will start dropping. We should know for sure in a month or two as that is the biggest buying season. With the subprime lending crisis many people won't be able to get a loan anymore.It seems to me, from watching the MLS listings every day or two, that things have slowed down inside the loop as well. There's almost nothing goin' on in Lindale Park. 77023 properties keep coming on the market, but hardly anything is selling. I've also seen a good many price reductions on properties in 77023. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
musicman Posted June 15, 2007 Share Posted June 15, 2007 With her youngest child in his last year of high school, Barbara Thompson put her four-bedroom home near Pearland on the market last November, anticipating she would no longer need all the space.But even though she upgraded the house about a year ago with hardwood floors, crown molding and a larger patio, it still hasn't sold. She just dropped her asking price by almost $5,000."I didn't think it would take six months to sell," said Thompson, a 45-year-old medical claims analyst. "Nobody has looked at it within the last three weeks."While some parts of the city are still strong, Houston's overall housing market is cooling. Area home sales fell 2.2 percent last month from the previous May, according to the Houston Association of Realtors. Realtors sold 7,052 single-family homes through the Multiple Listing Service.Most of the transactions were resales but some were new.Still, last month was the second highest May on record for sales. But it marked the second time in three months that home sales fell compared to the previous year. In March, sales fell 8.4 percent, which was followed by a 4.1 percent gain in April.The slowdown is being felt primarily in the lower-priced market, which is being affected by stricter lending standards.Sales of homes in the $80,000 to $140,000 price range, which made up 32 percent of the May transactions, were down 8.3 percent compared to the same period last year, according to the association.full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crunchtastic Posted June 15, 2007 Share Posted June 15, 2007 My folks live in the Katy area (mason rd south, slightly lower end than Cinco) and there have been 2 properties on their street for sale since Feb. On the other hand, it looks like 2 of the most recent sales in my 'hood (77023) are above and at ask. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1fd Posted June 15, 2007 Share Posted June 15, 2007 On the other hand, it looks like 2 of the most recent sales in my 'hood (77023) are above and at ask.Two sales does not a trend make. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted June 15, 2007 Share Posted June 15, 2007 Two sales does not a trend make.In the 77023 zip code, half of all sales in 2007 YTD (n=69) were at a price that was at least 98% of ask. About 38% of all sales were at or above ask; precisely half of those were sold at the ask price and the other half were above ask. There have been an average of 12 sales per month.In comparison, of all sales in 2006 in the 77023 zip code (n=117), half of all sales were at least 97% of ask. About 32% of all sales were at or above ask; about 57% of those were at ask and 43% were above ask. There had been an average of 9.75 sales per month.Trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porchman Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 From today's HBJ:http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/stories...5163200^1494014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longcat Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 From today's HBJ:http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/stories...5163200^1494014Interesting article. I wonder if converting single family homes/lots to multiple townhomes and condos is having the opposite (positive) effect on single family housing inside the loop by reducing supply. Also, is the montrose/midtown townhome market suffering from the tighter lending limits on mortgages as these properties are in effect the 'entry level' for inner loop? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1fd Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 From today's HBJ:http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/stories...5163200^1494014Fascinating! Thanks for posting that.Maybe it will get so bad that things will get cheap enough to where it gets into the range of what I want to spend on a house. I could afford it as things are now, but I don't want to spend that much. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJones Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 I am noticing a change in my area for sure, property values went up and average of $3500 around me. Good News ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
musicman Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 (edited) Montrose housing in state of shockIndeed, in July 2006, there were six foreclosures in the Montrose area, compared to 25 foreclosures during the July 2007 auction, which took place earlier this month, according to data and analysis provided by Houston RealNews and foreclosure listing service Real Data Inc. The median loan age of a foreclosed home in July 2006 was 531 days, compared to 337 days in July 2007, according to the same report. While the Montrose area -- loosely bounded by Montrose, Shepherd Drive, Richmond Avenue and West Gray -- saw foreclosures quadruple in the July period, Houston as a whole stayed relatively unchanged with 2,090 foreclosures in July 2006 and 2,085 foreclosures in July 2007. with all the same crap they are building, the new construction is already non-attractive. then the investors are trying to sell for too much of a profit which has over inflated the market in the area. maybe building will slow down as a result because currently builders prices will have to be lowered to compete with the foreclosures. Edited July 24, 2007 by musicman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
musicman Posted July 25, 2007 Share Posted July 25, 2007 Houston-area new home sales and construction fell in the second quarter, as the subprime mortgage meltdown lessened demand for properties.Compared to the same quarter last year, home starts and closings fell 18 percent and 17 percent, respectively, according to Metrostudy, a Houston-based consulting firm.Single-family starts totaled 11,271 during the quarter, down from 13,793 units during the same period last year.full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danax Posted July 25, 2007 Share Posted July 25, 2007 Houston-area new home sales and construction fell in the second quarter, as the subprime mortgage meltdown lessened demand for properties.Compared to the same quarter last year, home starts and closings fell 18 percent and 17 percent, respectively, according to Metrostudy, a Houston-based consulting firm.Single-family starts totaled 11,271 during the quarter, down from 13,793 units during the same period last year.full articleI think there are a lot of foreclosures out there the might be pulling some buyers from new construction. I heard from the 2nd mortgage industry person recently that the #1 zip code for foreclosures in the entire nation was 77441, which is Katy. I don't know what time frame they're talking about and haven't verified that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
musicman Posted July 25, 2007 Share Posted July 25, 2007 I think there are a lot of foreclosures out there the might be pulling some buyers from new construction. I heard from the 2nd mortgage industry person recently that the #1 zip code for foreclosures in the entire nation was 77441, which is Katy. I don't know what time frame they're talking about and haven't verified that.i don't think it was #1 in the nation.....but it was around the houston area. there was a story on 13 news a month or so ago and i started a thread on it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danax Posted July 25, 2007 Share Posted July 25, 2007 i don't think it was #1 in the nation.....but it was around the houston area. there was a story on 13 news a month or so ago and i started a thread on it Yeah, I remember that thread now. My friend had the zip wrong anyway. Those foreclosures out there could be the first step towards a neighborhood decline, as investors buy, then rent........then the laundry starts being hung from the 2nd story windows..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiche Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Someone just forwarded me a set of data for the 200 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. showing single-family and multifamily permitting trends. Guess who topped the list? I'll give you all a hint: it isn't Flint, MI. 2007 YTD SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING PERMITS Top 25 Metro Areas in U.S. 2007 YTD MULTIFAMILY HOUSING PERMITS Top 25 Metro Areas in U.S. 2007 YTD TOTAL HOUSING PERMITS Top 25 Metro Areas in U.S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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