Has Houston's growth slowed down?

[C2H]

I just read on another forum that Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex population is estimated currently to be 6.25 million while Houston's is 5.2 million. It seems that cities like DFW, Phoenix, Las Vegas are all experiencing high amounts of growth. And my question is, aside from the influx of population by Katrina/Rita evacuees, is the city really growing on its own?

I keep hearing from many people that Houston's low cost of living compared to Dallas and Austin is due to its poor location. And that people and jobs view Houston as undesireable. Is this true? Are there alot of jobs and people still choosing Houston as a prime location to set up shop?

[The Great Hizzy!]

I just read on another forum that Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex population is estimated currently to be 6.25 million while Houston's is 5.2 million

LOL!!!

[dbigtex56]

I just read on another forum that Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex population is estimated currently to be 6.25 million while Houston's is 5.2 million

LOL!!!

Gee, wonder who's spreading that "info"?

[Houston1stWordOnTheMoon]

I just read on another forum that Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex population is estimated currently to be 6.25 million while Houston's is 5.2 million

LOL!!!

Jim Jones has returned from the dead and is once again handing out kool-aid......RUN!!

LOL

[Original Timmy Chan's]

I keep hearing from many people that Houston's low cost of living compared to Dallas and Austin is due to its poor location. And that people and jobs view Houston as undesireable. Is this true? Are there alot of jobs and people still choosing Houston as a prime location to set up shop?

Houston's poor location? Would it be better if we picked up and moved a few miles to the east or west? Too bad Dallas got the "good spot" in Texas, right under the buttcrack of Oklahoma. But seriously folks...

I don't think Houston's doing too bad...we've only been breaking records for new housing starts here for what, 6 years in a row? We've been building 40,000+ new SF homes a year for how many years in a row now? Obviously there's some kind of growth going on to stimulate all the new home starts.

[C2H]

I know, the population number is funny to me to. Go to skyscraperpage.com and you'll see a forumer by the name of LEAF posting the stats for 2006.

But my question is, is Houston considered one of the faster growing cities in the U.S.?

[TheNiche]

I know, the population number is funny to me to. Go to skyscraperpage.com and you'll see a forumer by the name of LEAF posting the stats for 2006.

But my question is, is Houston considered one of the faster growing cities in the U.S.?

We're not a boom town, if that's what you mean. The only large boom towns that I can think of are Las Vegas and the general south Florida area. There are also a lot of small boomtowns that are growing at ridiculously fast rates (i.e. Laredo and McAllen/Edinburg/Pharr). But such places boom because they only have one real economic driver, and conditions happen to be good for the moment.

Houston used to be overly-dependent upon the Energy industry, and boomed when conditions were favorable, but is much more diversified now. Granted, we still have a disproportionate number of Energy-related jobs, but there is a whole lot more out there now...and when a local economy diversifies, its growth becomes slower and steadier.

I don't know how we compare to Dallas, quantitatively, but we're in Dallas' league.

[Double L]

It seems to me that we're ready for a down trend after all the growth we've had, so I wanna keep updated. At the most I can see us going into a recession. Either way I could care less.

[JasonDFW]

I just read on another forum that Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex population is estimated currently to be 6.25 million while Houston's is 5.2 million. It seems that cities like DFW, Phoenix, Las Vegas are all experiencing high amounts of growth. And my question is, aside from the influx of population by Katrina/Rita evacuees, is the city really growing on its own?

I keep hearing from many people that Houston's low cost of living compared to Dallas and Austin is due to its poor location. And that people and jobs view Houston as undesireable. Is this true? Are there alot of jobs and people still choosing Houston as a prime location to set up shop?

Before we hang anyone in the DFW forum, can you tell us which post you're referring to? Either you, or the person you are quoting is comparing apples to oranges.

The 5.2 million number is the 2004 census estimate of Houston. The equivalent number for DFW would be only 5.7 million.

The 2005 county populations were just released a few weeks ago from which the 2005 metro popuations are calculated from. Those official totals were:

Houston 5.28 million, an increase of 103k over 2004, which is a 2.0% increase

DFW 5.82 million, an increase of 123k over 2004, which is a 2.2% increase

Where did the 6.25million come from? That is the North Texas Council of Governments number for a different date, January 1 2006. The only fair comparison would be a number from the Houston council, which I don't have. Generally, the local governments tend to do a better job estimating populations than the feds do.

How is the Houston metro growing? By absolute numbers, its usually about the 4th fastest in the entire nation. Generally only behind Atlanta, DFW, and LA although Phoenix is coming up fast. I haven't run the new numbers. By percentage its very good for large metros, but if you wanted to compare it to small metros like say McAllen it wouldn't compare, which can't be expected of any major metro.

The cost of living is nearly identical between DFW and Houston. The city of Dallas housing costs are shooting up and are about to shoot up more because of infill but there are still plenty of cheap places around. There are plenty of brand new 3,000 square foot places just outside the city limits for $150-175k.

As far as I can tell Houston is not slowing down in growth, its staying about the same.

Jason

[Double L]

Atlanta, Dallas and Los Angeles grow faster than us? Didn't know that, interesting.

[JasonDFW]

The only large boom towns that I can think of are Las Vegas and the general south Florida area.

When you say "boom town" are you talking just the city or a metro area as a whole? If you're talking about metros, then Phoenix is another right up there with Las Vegas. If you're talking cities, by many measures lately Fort Worth is not only bigger than Las Vegas, but is growing faster.

Jason

[The Great Hizzy!]

Jason has pretty much summed it up. Although, I think it's more Orange County that is growing faster than us. I think the LA area overall is actually below us.

I believe DC is just below us while Phoenix is ahead of just about everyone.

[editor]

Go to skyscraperpage.com and you'll see a forumer by the name of LEAF posting the stats for 2006.

Consider the source. Skyscraperpage.com doesn't hold a lot of water around here; especially its forum. A lot of HAIFers are people who left Skyscraperpage in disgust looking for a forum where they could engage in more civilized conversation without being marginalized.

[JasonDFW]

Jason has pretty much summed it up. Although, I think it's more Orange County that is growing faster than us. I think the LA area overall is actually below us.

I believe DC is just below us while Phoenix is ahead of just about everyone.

Yeah that whole LA situation is a bit fuzzy. If you count it as two metros then LA itself is growing at a slower % than Houston, although more people/year because it is so big. And Phoenix is definitely moving. Growing at a faster pace and amount than Atlanta, DFW, and Houston for sure. I'm not sure about their water supply as someone else mentioned, it is a scary thought. Surely they must be a bit better about not wasting water than we are in Texas though, or at least I hope.

Jason

[Montrose1100]

Houston was sprouting Neighborhoods like mushrooms over night before, and after Katrina...

[Original Timmy Chan's]

And Phoenix is definitely moving. Growing at a faster pace and amount than Atlanta, DFW, and Houston for sure. I'm not sure about their water supply as someone else mentioned, it is a scary thought. Surely they must be a bit better about not wasting water than we are in Texas though, or at least I hope.

Jason

I recently read about Las Vegas that all potential water rights from the Colorado River basin have been allocated. Developers are now going 50-100 miles outside of Las Vegas to purchase groundwater rights.

I think Las Vegas is soon to be in a world of hurt, water-wise (or water-un-wise, as the case appears to be). Look at the number of water fountains in Vegas...I'm curious how many thousands of gallons of water evaporate into thin air every hour in that town.

And as for Phoenix, how do they keep their golf courses and lawns so green?

[rantanamo]

The 6.25 million comes from the NCTCOG

http://www.nctcog.dst.tx.us/ris/demographics/population.asp

I think the most interesting trend, is that the fast growth is really beginning to go on the eastern side of the metroplex. There is nothin but land to the east and south metroplex. Many of these places are much closer to downtown than some of the populous northern suburbs. At the same time, you have some serious job growth potential sites. Places like Royse City, Forney, Rockwall, Waxahachie and Red Oak, could be the next boomburbs over the next ten years.

[mrfootball]

Cost of living in Houston and Dallas is the same as are just about every place in Texas (including Austin/Round Rock which isn't that much more than Houston). Just more pretentious postering from our friends in the Metroplex.

And from personal experience, the Tom Thumb in Highland Park Village is less expensive than the Randall's in Cypress. A LOT LESS. We pay out the ASS for groceries here in Houston.

A side note: Palo Pinto County (listed on the map of N. Central Texas Counties linked above) is beautiful country. I'd swear I was in the Texas Hill Country (minus the development).

[TheNiche]

Claritas population estimates/projections as of 2005 are shown below. IMPORTANT: They have not factored in the Katrina/Rita impacts and have not made any effort to correct for the real estate boom of the last few years. That's why southern Florida looks like its growing at a slower pace than we are...but I can assure you that Claritas is wrong on that one--their econometric models don't easily account for interegional retiree migration.

Houston MSA

1990: 3,767,335

2000: 4,715,407 (25.17%)

2005: 5,239,517 (11.11%)

2010: 5,790,478 (10.52%)

Dallas-Fort Worth MSA

1990: 3,989,294

2000: 5,161,544 (29.38%)

2005: 5,786,913 (12.12%)

2010: 6,444,381 (11.36%)

New York City MSA

1990: 16,845,992

2000: 18,323,002 (8.77%)

2005: 18,768,242 (2.43%)

2010: 19,225,814 (2.44%)

Los Angeles MSA

1990: 11,273,720

2000: 12,365,627 (9.69%)

2005: 13,103,981 (5.97%)

2010: 13,870,928 (5.85%)

Chicago MSA

1990: 8,182,076

2000: 9,098,316 (11.20%)

2005: 9,433,601 (3.69%)

2010: 9,781,886 (3.69%)

Las Vegas MSA

1990: 741,459

2000: 1,375,765 (85.55%)

2005: 1,667,216 (21.18%)

2010: 1,971,977 (18.28%)

Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA

1990: 4,053,100

2000: 5,007,564 (23.46%)

2005: 5,379,473 (7.43%)

2010: 5,778,467 (7.42%)

[C2H]

Claritas population estimates/projections as of 2005 are shown below. IMPORTANT: They have not factored in the Katrina/Rita impacts and have not made any effort to correct for the real estate boom of the last few years. That's why southern Florida looks like its growing at a slower pace than we are...but I can assure you that Claritas is wrong on that one--their econometric models don't easily account for interegional retiree migration.

Houston MSA

1990: 3,767,335

2000: 4,715,407 (25.17%)

2005: 5,239,517 (11.11%)

2010: 5,790,478 (10.52%)

Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA

1990: 4,053,100

2000: 5,007,564 (23.46%)

2005: 5,379,473 (7.43%)

2010: 5,778,467 (7.42%)

No info on Atlanta? But based on this, it looks like Houston will surpass Miami-Ft.Lauderdale before Atlanta passes Houston.

[TheNiche]

No info on Atlanta? But based on this, it looks like Houston will surpass Miami-Ft.Lauderdale before Atlanta passes Houston.

Atlanta MSA

1990: 3,069,411

2000: 4,247,981 (38.40%)

2005: 4,765,845 (12.19%)

2010: 5,301,930 (11.25%)

Btw, as I said in my post, Claritas didn't do a very good job with Miami's forecast.

[Houston19514]

Cost of living in Houston and Dallas is the same as are just about every place in Texas (including Austin/Round Rock which isn't that much more than Houston). Just more pretentious postering from our friends in the Metroplex.

And from personal experience, the Tom Thumb in Highland Park Village is less expensive than the Randall's in Cypress. A LOT LESS. We pay out the ASS for groceries here in Houston.

A side note: Palo Pinto County (listed on the map of N. Central Texas Counties linked above) is beautiful country. I'd swear I was in the Texas Hill Country (minus the development).

I'm not buying it on the cost of groceries. Houston is generally considered to be one of the most competitive grocery markets in the country. Every study I've ever seen shows Houston with relatively low grocery prices. For example: Cost of Living Comparison

[JasonDFW]

I'm not buying it on the cost of groceries. Houston is generally considered to be one of the most competitive grocery markets in the country. Every study I've ever seen shows Houston with relatively low grocery prices. For example: Cost of Living Comparison

Your study shows Dallas (although highest in Texas) lower than the average. It may be just a weighting of high cost cities, but that's the first study I've ever seen Dallas grocery prices come out well at all. In my personal experience, Dallas citizens get raped at the checkout counter of the local grocery stores compared to everywhere in the midwest I have lived and traveled to. I noticed there are no midwest cities on that list, even Chicago. The issue seems to be there are nearly no discount chains except for Walmart. I haven't tried Festival Foods or whatever it is though, and we have no HEBs up here to try.

Of course, many places in California have it far worse than we do anywhere here in Texas. I was out there a few weeks ago and a 12 pack of coke was on sale for over $5.00, which is outrageous even considering their surcharge per can for recycling.

Jason

[Houston19514]

Your study shows Dallas (although highest in Texas) lower than the average. It may be just a weighting of high cost cities, but that's the first study I've ever seen Dallas grocery prices come out well at all. In my personal experience, Dallas citizens get raped at the checkout counter of the local grocery stores compared to everywhere in the midwest I have lived and traveled to. I noticed there are no midwest cities on that list, even Chicago. The issue seems to be there are nearly no discount chains except for Walmart. I haven't tried Festival Foods or whatever it is though, and we have no HEBs up here to try.

Of course, many places in California have it far worse than we do anywhere here in Texas. I was out there a few weeks ago and a 12 pack of coke was on sale for over $5.00, which is outrageous even considering their surcharge per can for recycling.

Jason

Jason, the linked chart just shows a sampling of the cities covered by the study. It was a comprehensive nationwide study. I had no idea there were still no HEB stores in D-FW. That's a shame for you guys. If you are looking for low prices, maybe you should try the Tom Thumb in Highland Park Village ;-)

[Orikal]

Of course, many places in California have it far worse than we do anywhere here in Texas. I was out there a few weeks ago and a 12 pack of coke was on sale for over $5.00, which is outrageous even considering their surcharge per can for recycling.

Jason

I can remember paying $12.00 for a pack of two chicken breasts in San Diego. Produce was inexpensive and top quality, though.

[The Great Hizzy!]

HEBs throughout Houston have really challenged the old guard of Houston-area grocery stores. They've helped to put a few out of business and Randall's is cutting the number of stores down because it would rather keep their premium pricing with fewer stores than the inverse.

Some HEBs, unfortunately, are starting to become a little rag tag and unruly.