Subdude Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 Yeah, but Saudi Arabia is traditionally the swing producer, and they don't want to see oil prices increase to a permanent plateau at which Americans will start conserving. They realize it will only hurt them in the long run, so historically they have stepped in and produced more when they think we are feeling the pain. Prices won't plummet, but they won't remain at record highs forever. There, now don't you feel better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 I own Exxon stock, so I already feel better. As for the House of Saud, there are real questions whether they can step up production. They do not appear to have stepped it up, even though they promised to, in order to keep oil prices at a sustainable level. In fact, this chart suggests that Saudi Arabian production has DROPPED 7% in the last 2 years. Frankly, I do not believe their stated reserves whatsoever. And, who would blame me? There, now don't YOU feel better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted October 31, 2007 Share Posted October 31, 2007 Hmm. Well, production overall is broadly flat, and I suppose there is some hope that Iraqi production will eventually go back to pre-war levels. Overall though, throughout history higher prices have led to new production. It isn't instantaneous, of course. I'm obviously unconvinced by "peak oil" arguments. It's not a popular concept, but the best way to help drive down prices in the short run is to use less oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted October 31, 2007 Author Share Posted October 31, 2007 But now there are more people using the same amount of oil. That automatically drives up the problem. It would be different if the same # of people were using the oil, but with China and India coming on in a big way, not to mention other developing nations, it's going to get pricey no matter what we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urban909 Posted October 31, 2007 Share Posted October 31, 2007 I'm obviously unconvinced by "peak oil" arguments. It's not a popular concept, but the best way to help drive down prices in the short run is to use less oil.and it depends on what analyst define as peak oil. peak oil will happen if the industry/market keeps it ,(off the top of my head) 80-90 million per day, soon; but soon in that sense can be 5 year/20 years, its all the same. and i apologize, i can usally put things more elequently, but having a 7 month old tends to kill brain cells. here is an intersting link though... http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted November 1, 2007 Share Posted November 1, 2007 Singapore trading above $96/bbl. That $100 price may be pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted November 1, 2007 Author Share Posted November 1, 2007 Yeah, my vote (and prediction) is that it will happen this month. It's inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted November 3, 2007 Share Posted November 3, 2007 "The Economist" has an article on oil prices. They do point out that producers have promised to increase output but are having difficulty doing so due to equipment and engineer shortages. Still, they feel that weakening demand and some supply increases will bring the price down. Goldman is predicting $80/bbl by April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urban909 Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 "The Economist" has an article on oil prices. They do point out that producers have promised to increase output but are having difficulty doing so due to equipment and engineer shortages.actaully, there has been an increase by about 20-30 percent even though there are shortages. i am pulling this from memory from a talk with a person high up in the field, so i might have been mistaken on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted November 4, 2007 Author Share Posted November 4, 2007 "The Economist" has an article on oil prices. They do point out that producers have promised to increase output but are having difficulty doing so due to equipment and engineer shortages. Still, they feel that weakening demand and some supply increases will bring the price down. Goldman is predicting $80/bbl by April.It's already past $80 a barrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 It's already past $80 a barrel.Yes, I know. They are predicting that oil prices will fall to that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted November 7, 2007 Author Share Posted November 7, 2007 Looks like it will happen before Friday. They are also attributing the rise to the fall in value of the dollar.Oil prices surged to more than $98 a barrel on Wednesday, ploughing deeper into record territory as the dollar plumbed new lows and traders worried about a winter fuel crunch due to thinning oil stockpiles and a North Sea storm.Investors bracing for more fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and seeking shelter from the sliding U.S. dollar have driven oil nearly $30 higher since mid-August and lifted other commodities including gold, now at a 28-year high.U.S. light, sweet crudeNYMEX CRUDE OIL FUTURES Front MonthUS%40CL.198.03 1.33 +1.38% BISQuote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist[uS@CL.1 98.03 1.33 (+1.38%)] for December rose as much as $1.47 to a new record of $98.17 a barrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urban909 Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 ...and lifted other commodities including gold, now at a 28-year high.thats why i invested in gold about a year and a half ago...always a safe bet when the economy seems "shaky"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 It may happen as soon as today. Oil stockpile numbers are expected to drop, which usually causes a spike, even if only temporarily. If prices are already above $98, then it could spike above $100, though profit taking could drive it back down. With the Yemen pipeline attack, it sounds like oil prices will stay well into the 90s for awhile.Gasoline is now rushing to catch up to oil prices. They have jumped 20 cents in the last week or two. Nationwide, they are back to $3.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saddleman Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 With the dollar falling and oil rising, are there any moves to price oil in euros instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crunchtastic Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 With the dollar falling and oil rising, are there any moves to price oil in euros instead? No....but China is threatening moving more reserves out of dollars, which could drive it down even more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aigTgE2c7qlI And perhaps the biggest threat to the dollar: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saddleman Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 I was both of those acticles. They're the reason I was wondering about possible euro-pricing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 With the dollar falling and oil rising, are there any moves to price oil in euros instead?There has been some talk about it, but oil won't likely be priced in euro. However, what is happening is that oil producers (and exporters like China) are sitting on piles of dollars, a rapidly depreciating asset, and they are trying to rapidly diverify out of dollars and into euro. As the demand for euros increases, the value of the currency is rising against the dollar. Hence oil hits a record high in USD at almost the same time the dollar hits a record low against EUR. The pressure against the dollar isn't helped by the fact that China has indicated that it will actively diversify to reduce its USD exposure. That said, for the economy as a whole, a cheap dollar isn't necessarily a bad thing. The big risk of a run on the dollar is that it increases the upwards pressure on US interest rates (to make dollar denominated assets more expensive), and that it greatly increases the risk of inflation (because imports and anything with oil in it will increase in price in dollar tems). Some of the inflationary pressure can be alleviated by reducing imports, but in many cases there won't be domestic substitutes in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 Iran is attempting (threatening?) to set up an oil exchange that trades in euros. There are many who believe this is the reason behind Bush's beligerence toward Iran, as oil trading in Euros could collapse the dollar, a threat far more dangerous to the US than the possibility that Iran may obtain a nuclear device in the next 10 years. While there are many articles on this (google "Iran oil bourse"), I linked to this one because, frankly it sounds more ominous and scary when the non-mainstream guys report it. Iran Oil Bourse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted November 8, 2007 Share Posted November 8, 2007 Way OTT that. It would be hard for one oil producer to change the way the oil market trades. And anyway, as we've been seeing, the dollar is collapsing even while oil is traded in dollars. It is insane to think that Iran would be attacked over the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crunchtastic Posted November 8, 2007 Share Posted November 8, 2007 Wow, that site is OTT on such a wide variety of subjects! Interesting that you bring up the Iran bourse. It's been a quiet topic for a while. I think the last time I remember seeing anything on The Oil Drum was early this year--reports from some source that the opening of the bourse was imminent, but then that's been the story for 2 years or more now.A while back there was a lot of chatter on it--some guy named William Clark (don't know his background) was publishing a series of essays that ultimately became a book called Petrodollar Warfare. I haven't read the book, but if it's the same content as his prior articles, the premise is peak oil + Euro replacing dollar as the power currency = US bombing the crap out of __________ (insert evil threat to freedom here). Oil Drum ran an interview with the guy who came up with the idea of the Iranian market, last year maybe. At the time he never really explicitly said the market would work off the Euro. And originally the Saudis weren't on board with it, anyway. There's a lot of tinfoil hattery on the subject, but that said, I really don't put much past this administration and its corporate backers when it comes to protecting 'our' assets in foreign, oil-producing regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted November 8, 2007 Share Posted November 8, 2007 Yes, but it is also insane to think that invading would be a cakewalk, that Iraqis would welcome us as liberators, and that Iraqi oil would pay for the invasion and reconstruction, statements that were not only made, but readily accepted by the populace. In retrospect, it is makes perfect sense that invading an oil rich nation in an oil rich region wil cause instability in the oil markets (costing US residents FAR more than the $800 Billion war itself), but at the time, many accepted the rosy predictions. Considering the advice and the belief system of the current administration, this is not a far-fetched idea. The dollar is not currently collapsing. It is not even in free-fall. It is declining somewhat rapidly however, and a calamitous event could trigger free fall. It is not hard to imagine that a country that sees the US and its intrusive economy as a worldwide bully might like to help cause that calamitous event, if not for defense, then certainly for retribution. More likely, in my opinion, is that the US realizes it created the monster (Iran) by taking out Iraq, and now must manufature an excuse to cut Iran down to size.Regardless of the real reasons, all of these political stalemates and instabilities, combined with rebel attacks in oil producing countries, weather related interruptions, increasing consumption, and 80% of the world's oil being controlled by nationalized oil companies, points to continued high prices. The true cost of our bullying tactics shows up here, much more so than in our $200 Billion war budgets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crunchtastic Posted November 8, 2007 Share Posted November 8, 2007 More likely, in my opinion, is that the US realizes it created the monster (Iran) by taking out Iraq, and now must manufature an excuse to cut Iraq down to size.Precisely. The longer the mess in Iraq persists, the more plausible a Gulf of Tonkin-esque action in Iran becomes.IMO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedScare Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...refer=worldwide$99.29 in after hours trading. Shouldn't be long now...like maybe tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crunchtastic Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 Ooh! $100 dollar oil for Black Friday? It's going to be a fun long weekend in the financial press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 And moving in lockstep, the dollar hit a record low against euro yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted November 21, 2007 Author Share Posted November 21, 2007 35% of us are saying November so you're probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subdude Posted November 27, 2007 Share Posted November 27, 2007 NYMEX oil dropped more than $3 today to $94.32, attributed to higher Saudi production and the weak US economic outlook. Perhaps the peak is behind us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary Posted November 27, 2007 Share Posted November 27, 2007 NYMEX oil dropped more than $3 today to $94.32, attributed to higher Saudi production and the weak US economic outlook. Perhaps the peak is behind us?I hope your right. I'm paying almost $3.40 a gallon for diesel right now. Looks like I'm going to have to start collecting vegetable oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houstonmacbro Posted November 27, 2007 Author Share Posted November 27, 2007 NYMEX oil dropped more than $3 today to $94.32, attributed to higher Saudi production and the weak US economic outlook. Perhaps the peak is behind us?Yeah, looks like it might keep dropping. But I think the overall march on oil is towards and beyong $100/barrel. Could be wrong on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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