Houston Edges D-FW in GDP Race

[nucklehead]

If we want to get technical, agriculture has been building wealth and has been the foundation of empires for thousands of years, and it will continue to do so long after the last drop of oil is gone. So, in a way, nucklehead has a point, though I am not sure what it has to do with the Houston vs. DFW economies. As for the GDP numbers, they are statistics, so they are most likely wrong; I wouldn't take them too seriously.

Okay. The DFW area does better than Houston in the long run because it is more volatile. This is my argument. Dallas does not have the assurances of a seaport, Nasa and the world's largest Medical Center. DFW is out there in the middle of nowhere without such guarantees. But it is no different than Atlanta which is just as volatile for the same reason. When Dallas loses an industry, it invents new industries to replace them. Like Chicago, Dallas isn't number one in anything; but, it is number 2 or 3 in almost everything that has to do with it being the cultural, distribution and financial (once again) center of the southwest.

[nucklehead]

Hmmm. Note the top and bottom lines on this graph. Also note the diverging slopes of the two lines...

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/swe/2007/swe0702g.cfm

It is interesting that both the high tech areas of the Dallas Metro and the Austin one almost match each other. Houston is oil. If you think of Houston like a vehicle, it is just gone up in value the last 5 years. Still, I think Dallas has both the superior position, which is volatile, and diverse foundation.

[Dallascaper]

Hmmm. Note the top and bottom lines on this graph. Also note the diverging slopes of the two lines...

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/swe/2007/swe0702g.cfm

For you statistics junkies, here are the latest numbers. Enjoy.

From The Fed:

Dallas's economic growth moderated somewhat in August. The metro's business-cycle index rose 2.6 percent after increasing 3.4 percent in July, and employment growth decelerated from its 2.9 percent pace in July to 1.4 percent in August. On net, Dallas employers added 2,500 jobs during the month. Job growth in the goods-producing sector was boosted by gains in manufacturing and construction, which added 600 and 300 jobs, respectively, following July losses that business contacts said were partly due to unfavorable weather. While service-sector growth was positive overall, weakness in the housing sector was reflected in job declines in finance and real estate industries.

Fort Worth's economy strengthened in August. Its business-cycle index rose 3.4 percent after a 2.7 percent increase last month, and employment growth improved from 1.5 to 1.8 percent. Although demand for new homes has weakened, construction and mining employment increased, thanks in part to continued drilling in the Barnett Shale and elevated levels of commercial building activity. Education and health services jobs rose at a strong pace, reflecting the ongoing expansion of medical facilities in the metro. Leisure and hospitality employment picked up in August, after sluggish growth in July.

The Houston economy decelerated in August, as the metro's business-cycle index rose at an annualized rate of 1.8 percent and job gains slowed to 300 from previous monthly gains of 4,600 in both June and July. In August, housing inventories increased and home sales fell. Nevertheless, home prices continued to hold up relative to other areas of the country. The energy sector remained strong, adding 900 new jobs to the construction, mining and natural resources sector.

Why stop there?

Best real estate market for 2008: Dallas-Fort Worth - CNN/Money

DFW leads nation in job growth July 2006 - July 2007 (Houston comes close) - Dallas Morning News

The point is that the economies of DFW and Houston seem to be doing well, considering the situation in other parts of the US. If you want to split hairs, I an sure one could find statistics to back up almost any claim.

[ToryGattis]

I would agree DFW has a more diverse economy, but that actually makes them *less* volatile, and it doesn't necessarily mean they grow faster. It's like owning the S&P500 index instead of a few hot stocks. Energy will definitely be the driver in Houston, although the port, med center, and NASA help balance it out. As long as energy is hotter than the broad economy (and it definitely is right now, and seems like it will be for the foreseeable future), Houston will be hotter than Dallas.

If you look at the top tier US cities, many were built on one or two major industry clusters that drove them to that level: finance and NYC, tech and SF/SV, entertainment and LA, govt and DC, universities and Boston, autos and Detroit (which is falling hard now), mfg/trade and Chicago. Relatively fewer cities reach that level that are broadly diversified, like Dallas and Atlanta. Why would that be the case? Generally, as cities grow, the problems of growth get more and more overwhelming, like traffic, schools, infrastructure, taxes, and expensive housing. In cluster cities, employees and companies put up with it because they "have to be" where the action is in their industry. But if that cluster reason doesn't exist that "forces" them to be there (i.e. outweighs the problems), then growth will level off or potentially even reverse. Almost no companies "have" to be in Dallas or Atlanta. Those cities will continue to grow only as long as they are attractive places - their benefits (esp. the airports and affordable housing) outweigh their problems. I think the Metroplex is definitely still very attractive and doing well and will do so for a long time to come. I believe Atlanta is just starting to falter slightly (mainly from inadequate road infrastructure), and starting to lose growth to places like Charlotte in North Carolina.

[nucklehead]

I would agree DFW has a more diverse economy, but that actually makes them *less* volatile, and it doesn't necessarily mean they grow faster. It's like owning the S&P500 index instead of a few hot stocks. Energy will definitely be the driver in Houston, although the port, med center, and NASA help balance it out. As long as energy is hotter than the broad economy (and it definitely is right now, and seems like it will be for the foreseeable future), Houston will be hotter than Dallas.

If you look at the top tier US cities, many were built on one or two major industry clusters that drove them to that level: finance and NYC, tech and SF/SV, entertainment and LA, govt and DC, universities and Boston, autos and Detroit (which is falling hard now), mfg/trade and Chicago. Relatively fewer cities reach that level that are broadly diversified, like Dallas and Atlanta. Why would that be the case? Generally, as cities grow, the problems of growth get more and more overwhelming, like traffic, schools, infrastructure, taxes, and expensive housing. In cluster cities, employees and companies put up with it because they "have to be" where the action is in their industry. But if that cluster reason doesn't exist that "forces" them to be there (i.e. outweighs the problems), then growth will level off or potentially even reverse. Almost no companies "have" to be in Dallas or Atlanta. Those cities will continue to grow only as long as they are attractive places - their benefits (esp. the airports and affordable housing) outweigh their problems. I think the Metroplex is definitely still very attractive and doing well and will do so for a long time to come. I believe Atlanta is just starting to falter slightly (mainly from inadequate road infrastructure), and starting to lose growth to places like Charlotte in North Carolina.

Mainly because of the Lockheed plant in Fort Worth, more aircraft has been built in the DFW area over the years than any other place on earth. There is still a healthy aerospace industry present in the area with a good backlog of work. It has the healthiest airline industry amongst the big three which include Chicago and Atlanta. Finance has returned to the area big with Comerica relocating. Insurance is still based there. Retail stores such as Seven Eleven, Radio Shack, Blockbuster, Neiman Marcus, JC Pennys, Gamestop etc., lots of restarant chains got their start in the area, fashion. Don't forget that there are still oil and gas companies in the area. Fort Worth has become the headquarters site for the largest gas field in the continental United States. There are significant manufacturing. It just goes on and on. Lots of large private corporations and affiliated public corporations. Lots of billionaires and millionaires.

All this is the end product of a healthy diverse economy.

I don't agree with you about Atlanta either. Both the Atlanta metropolitan area and its economy is close to surpassing Houston's in size.

[Trae]

The big three in air traffic isn't DFW, Atlanta, and Chicago. More like Atlanta, Chicago, and New York (LAX coming up, too). DFW is a just a domestic region. Houston is domestic AND international (the Port of Houston helps with that).

And that's not true about Atlanta. I run an Atlanta site (click the link) and Houston's economy is almost $100 billion larger than Atlanta's. Also, Houston has been growing faster than Atlanta over the past three years.

[VicMan]

The big three in air traffic isn't DFW, Atlanta, and Chicago. More like Atlanta, Chicago, and New York (LAX coming up, too). DFW is a just a domestic region. Houston is domestic AND international (the Port of Houston helps with that).

And that's not true about Atlanta. I run an Atlanta site (click the link) and Houston's economy is almost $100 billion larger than Atlanta's. Also, Houston has been growing faster than Atlanta over the past three years.

Trae, New York is split by three major airports. That is why DFW is third busiest (Love Field, the other major airport, is small and has the Wright Amendment).

The New York airports are:

* Newark (Newark/Elizabeth, NJ) - Connecting passengers and international demand

* LaGuardia (New York City) - Almost all domestic and New York City demand

* John F. Kennedy (New York City) - New York City demand with mostly international services

[713 To 214]

Relatively fewer cities reach that level that are broadly diversified, like Dallas and Atlanta. Why would that be the case? Generally, as cities grow, the problems of growth get more and more overwhelming, like traffic, schools, infrastructure, taxes, and expensive housing. In cluster cities, employees and companies put up with it because they "have to be" where the action is in their industry.

That's an interesting point you've made. So, do you think that most people who live in Houston do so because they truly want to, or out of necessity because "they have to be where the action is" in Houston's highly specialized industries?

[Houston19514]

Trae, New York is split by three major airports. That is why DFW is third busiest (Love Field, the other major airport, is small and has the Wright Amendment).

DFW is third only if you're talking about aircraft movements. In number of passengers, DFW is no. 4. The top 3, in order, are, Atlanta, O'Hare, LAX.

[ToryGattis]

That's an interesting point you've made. So, do you think that most people who live in Houston do so because they truly want to, or out of necessity because "they have to be where the action is" in Houston's highly specialized industries?

As with every city, some of both, although if you look at Dr. Klineberg's Houston Area Survey polling data, 78% say Houston is a better place to live than most metros, and only 2.5% think poorly of it - so we're doing pretty well.

[713 To 214]

As with every city, some of both, although if you look at Dr. Klineberg's Houston Area Survey polling data, 78% say Houston is a better place to live than most metros, and only 2.5% think poorly of it - so we're doing pretty well.

Is this the same study?

http://houstonareasurvey.org/

I just want to be sure as look at it in more detail.

[ToryGattis]

Is this the same study?

http://houstonareasurvey.org/

I just want to be sure as look at it in more detail.

Yes, although I was looking at presentations I had saved on my hard drive - possibly slightly dated vs. what's on the web site now. The chart I looked at had data from asking the question in 2005.

[nucklehead]

The big three in air traffic isn't DFW, Atlanta, and Chicago. More like Atlanta, Chicago, and New York (LAX coming up, too). DFW is a just a domestic region. Houston is domestic AND international (the Port of Houston helps with that).And that's not true about Atlanta. I run an Atlanta site (click the link) and Houston's economy is almost $100 billion larger than Atlanta's. Also, Houston has been growing faster than Atlanta over the past three years.

Over the last couple of decades Atlanta has been the fastest growing metropolitan area in the United States. Although Houston's economy is doing better now, it is clear that Atlanta is going to eat Houston's lunch in the near future.

DFW is third only if you're talking about aircraft movements. In number of passengers, DFW is no. 4. The top 3, in order, are, Atlanta, O'Hare, LAX.

Okay, but LAX does not have two airlines based there like American and Southwest. While Chicago has United based there and Atlanta has Delta, both of those airlines filed for bankruptcy. I think Houston is sitting pretty with Continental. LAX should be busier than DFW. It sits in a metropolitan area that is 3 times as large for cripes sake.

[nucklehead]

As with every city, some of both, although if you look at Dr. Klineberg's Houston Area Survey polling data, 78% say Houston is a better place to live than most metros, and only 2.5% think poorly of it - so we're doing pretty well.

If you want to know about the Baptist Church, you don't ask a Baptist. If you want to know about science, you don't submit the question to the Academy of Sciences. Likewise, if you want to know about Houston, you don't ask Houstonians.

[ToryGattis]

Over the last couple of decades Atlanta has been the fastest growing metropolitan area in the United States. Although Houston's economy is doing better now, it is clear that Atlanta is going to eat Houston's lunch in the near future.

Atlanta metro 2030 population forecast is 7 million

(if that link has trouble loading, Google cache here)

Houston metro 2030 population forecast is 8 million

That's actually a widening of the current population difference.

[VicMan]

LAX should be busier than DFW. It sits in a metropolitan area that is 3 times as large for cripes sake.

Nucklehead, there are five airports in the Los Angeles area, compared to two in the DFW area...

* Los Angeles International Airport (Los Angeles)

* LA/Ontario International Airport (Ontario)

* Long Beach Airport (Long Beach)

* Bob Hope Airport (Burbank)

* John Wayne Airport (Santa Ana, Orange County)

By the way, regarding New York, there are some smaller passenger airports in the NYC area.

* Stewart International Airport (Hudson Valley, near Newburgh) (No scheduled international passenger service)

* Westchester County Airport (Harrison, near White Plains)

* Long Island MacArthur Airport (Ronkonkoma, in the Islip area)

These three take some passengers from NYC suburbs.

[Mister X]

If you want to know about the Baptist Church, you don't ask a Baptist. If you want to know about science, you don't submit the question to the Academy of Sciences. Likewise, if you want to know about Houston, you don't ask Houstonians.

So, I guess it must be true that if you wan't to know anything about Dallas you don't ask Dallasites. And if you want to know anything about anything you DON'T ask someone named nucklehead.

[Trae]

Over the last couple of decades Atlanta has been the fastest growing metropolitan area in the United States. Although Houston's economy is doing better now, it is clear that Atlanta is going to eat Houston's lunch in the near future.

Really?

15 Largest Metropolitan Economies of The United States

New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA (CSA) $1,208.1 Billion

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA (CSA) $733.9 Billion

Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI (CSA) (89176) $467.2 Billion

Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV (CSA) $465.6 Billion

San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA (CSA) $437.2 Billion

Boston-Worcester-Manchester, MA-RI-NH (CSA) $339.1 Billion

Dallas-Ft Worth, TX (CSA) $318.3 Billion

Houston-Baytown-Huntsville, TX (CSA) $316.3 Billion

Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD (CSA) $312.6 Billion

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville, GA-AL (CSA) $242.3 Billion

Detroit-Warren-Flint, MI (CSA) $233.4 BIllion

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL (MSA) $231.8 Billion

Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia, WA (CSA) $201.3 Billion

Minneapolis-St. Paul-St. Cloud, MN-WI (CSA) $186.1 Billion

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ (MSA) $160.0 Billion

Released September 27, 2007 by The Bureau of Economic Analysis

You don't even know what Atlanta's economy is made up of. Atlanta is just a regional transportation hub. Companies like Coca-Cola, Cartoon Network, TBS, Delta, and Home Depot is not going to eat up the companies that are located in Houston.

[Dallasboi]

Really?

15 Largest Metropolitan Economies of The United States

New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA (CSA) $1,208.1 Billion

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA (CSA) $733.9 Billion

Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI (CSA) (89176) $467.2 Billion

Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV (CSA) $465.6 Billion

San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA (CSA) $437.2 Billion

Boston-Worcester-Manchester, MA-RI-NH (CSA) $339.1 Billion

Dallas-Ft Worth, TX (CSA) $318.3 Billion

Houston-Baytown-Huntsville, TX (CSA) $316.3 Billion

Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD (CSA) $312.6 Billion

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville, GA-AL (CSA) $242.3 Billion

Detroit-Warren-Flint, MI (CSA) $233.4 BIllion

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL (MSA) $231.8 Billion

Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia, WA (CSA) $201.3 Billion

Minneapolis-St. Paul-St. Cloud, MN-WI (CSA) $186.1 Billion

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ (MSA) $160.0 Billion

Released September 27, 2007 by The Bureau of Economic Analysis

You don't even know what Atlanta's economy is made up of. Atlanta is just a regional transportation hub. Companies like Coca-Cola, Cartoon Network, TBS, Delta, and Home Depot is not going to eat up the companies that are located in Houston.

....Uhhhhhh...we all know houston is the best...

[nucklehead]

Atlanta metro 2030 population forecast is 7 million

(if that link has trouble loading, Google cache here)

Houston metro 2030 population forecast is 8 million

That's actually a widening of the current population difference.

Thank you for posting those figures. I did not realize that Atlanta's metro area would be so puny in the year 2030. It is also interesting to note that if Houston wants to know what its metropolitan area will look like in the year 2015, it can take a look at the DFW area -- 6 month ago. At that time DFW had 6,406,500 people whereas Houston is projected to 6,375,900 in the year 2015.

These figures just go to prove that neither Atlanta nor Houston are legitimate megapolitan areas when compared to the big four of New York City, Los Angelos, Chicago and DFW. Now I do think that Houston is in the same class with Philidelphia.

[Mister X]

What a liar you are nucklehead. You certainly have been paying a lot of attention to our puny little 'megapolitan' area for the last few days - to the point of obsession. I never made 71 post on HAIF in 4 days. You need some help buddy. Don't your kids need a little attention now? Have you eaten lately? Why would someone spend all this energy ripping this city apart if they didn't feel threatend by it. You act as if Houston is the most important metro area in the world. So maybe we should be flattered. Even I don't spend this much energy writing about it. People from NY, LA, and Chi never give us this much of their time. But you Dallas guys don't go a day without thinking about our wonderful city. Thanx, I guess.

BTW please don't ever grow to like Houston, I would HATE having someone like you representing MY city on other cities' forums.

But here is some more fuel to keep you going:

Houston is ahead of or only a few inches behind DFW in any important catagory. Just look at the headline on the top post on this thread. On the other hand, as far a cities go Dallas isn't on the national radar screen. As Texas' 3 largest city, Dallas probably won't even be in the top ten largest cities in 2015. No sources are necessary, this is common knowledge.

There, that should keep you up all night typing until you pass out.

[Subdude]

See the Reminder at the top of the page? Is it not clear enough? There's obviously trolling going on here.

Closed.