august948

3 hours ago, trymahjong said:

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/home/article/What-s-the-state-of-violent-crime-in-Houston-17431491.php
 

The Chronicle stated it’s a complicated issue- I agree.

That article is behind a paywall.  Any chance you can summarize what they said?

Proposed trail improvements advance along Brays Bayou

https://abc13.com/project-brays-bayou-improvement-trail-improvements-braeswood-and-meyerland-areas/12213693/

15 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

Augie, your responses I must say are becoming more tiresome and rather formulaic than normal.  Seems to be some derivative of "Nothing to see here," blah, blah, blah, always, when it comes to any negative news from a partisan perspective.  Which, as we all know, is the standard Republican approach to things these days (at least for the ones not threatening Civil War).  Journalist: "It is reported that the President stole nuclear documents?" Marco Rubio: "Hmmm, well, that's a document storage issue.  Now let's talk about Hillary and the socialists and the groomers."  (Note Rubio has no credibility in this example.)

The poll is an update to the one posted by our friend Mr Dogs earlier this summer.  It is all we have.  The same group of people conducting the same poll has shown different results.  Yes, I understand statistical analysis, MOE, etc.  Yes, the 2016 polls were bad.  The 2018 polls were not, however.  The 2020 polls weren't the best, but weren't as bad as 2016.  So I could say by simple powers of selective observation of patterns, which is the same logic you're using, I'm going to say, well in this rotation, these polls must be better.

But, I will not, as that is hogwash.  I will evaluate them in this context:

-As described above, germane from a trend perspective to the polls conducted by the same group several months prior

-They parallel state and national trends, which show people clearly running away from the radical Republican agenda 

-Mealer's announcement re the 1K new policemen indicates desperation . . . she could've announced this months ago

At the very least, a reasonable response should be "Even though I don't trust polls, that's a tad bit concerning." 

But I will acknowledge that you still believe in a 12-year period of Republican political dominance.  I agree, I think it is a real possibility, but only if they are successful at fully subverting the American democratic processes and replacing it with an authoritarian "I Know Better than You" government, which admittedly many seem intent on doing. 

I think you need to read the second sentence again.

My position on polls in general is that there is only one that means anything and that one won't happen until early November.  So, to slightly modify your "reasonable response" above I'd say "Because I don't trust polls, I don't find this particularly concerning."

That's not to say Mealer won't get shellaced in November, but I'm not going take this a definitive proof that she will either.  Like I said before, let's revisit this after the election and see how close the UH/TSU polling actually got.

But...just to play along here...I pulled a report from the same organization focused on the statewide races and that shows Abbott leading O'Rourke.  So, just for the sake of argument, let's say the UH/TSU polls are dead on.  That would leave us with Harris county blue (as you predicted, I believe) and Hidalgo as County Judge.  It would also leave us with Abbott as Governor.  That would be a continuation of the current status quo.  I can live with that, since my primary objection to Hidalgo is her overreach during covid.  Abbott stepped in and quashed that fairly quickly so we know he will act as a check on her.

It's a curious coincidence that on the right side of the spectrum there is concern that Democratic party operatives want to install an authoritarian "I Know Better than You" government, most recently using California and New York as examples.

7 hours ago, Montrose1100 said:

 

Anyways, back to the "scandal" of Hidalgo at hand.

If we're talking about hands, I'll defer to @mattyt36 as the expert on that in this particular race.

6 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

Deep breath, @Blue Dogs

Looks like my theory may be closer to the case than it was this summer 

If correct, this means Harris County will no longer be competitive

Surely Mealer, Patrick, Ed Young and the Republican machine have seen the same poll results internally, which explains why Young was so embittered and angry last week and Mealer today is calling to hire 1K new police officers out of nowhere for … er … reasons? Sounds like a totally judicious use of funds. Looks like @august948’s tongue-in-cheek posting of Mealer with colleagues in fatigues saying they’re fighting crime in Houston may not be far off from how these guys see themselves … 1K new officers walking around on top of what we already have, where will she put them and what will they do all day?! 

(Wonder how she even came up with 1K? Because it was larger than 100 and 10K sounded a bit too ridiculous, even to these professional fearmongers?)

Abbott behind similarly, I honestly would’ve expected Mealer to run ahead as she has no history and is avoiding telegraphing she is a Republican—however she’s somehow running slightly behind—this is great indication that it has little to do with Mealer and is more just anti-Republican (greatest Governor in history … I guess? … looks like your fellow Texans strongly disagree). If the voters are anti-Republican (what I believe you have referred to as a “wave” before), ain’t nothing much poor Mealer can do … maybe her campaign should’ve been something other than Mattress … Woman … Latina … Crime … War!

I say thank God it looks like the majority of Harris County residents can see the Republican Party for exactly what it is and they say NO THANK YOU

Of course I won’t put it past Abbott to just proclaim Mealer won anyway, and I can’t say I have much faith in the crooked Republican judges (Aileen Cannon anyone?)

 

Polls are fun and all, but the 2016 poll debacle showed you can't really take them very seriously.  I'd say that if the trend was just the opposite as well.  In the case of the poll above, I followed the link to the actual document and found this...

Quote

While the non-election related reports we will subsequently release focus on Harris County adults, this election-related report focuses on the subset of 195 likely 2022 Harris County voters (confidence interval of +/- 7.0%)

https://uh.edu/hobby/txtrends/countyjudge22.pdf

Someone let me know if I pulled the wrong document or if I'm reading this wrong but it sounds like they polled a whopping 195 people for this and ended up with a confidence of +/-7%.  I have my doubts as to whether that's even a statistically significant sample.

But, like I said, polling can be fun to argue about even if it's not particularly meaningful.  We should pin this one and come back to it in two months to see how it turns out.

4 hours ago, monarch said:

^^^ yes, and it looks as though he's really enjoying his meal... 😉

I heard a rumor they were going to paint the Embassy Suites blue...

22 hours ago, hindesky said:

You can park for free at the very eastern end of the causeway next to the ship channel entrance.

I got back in to riding bicycles years ago by going to Galveston and renting a bike. I would ride from one end of the Seawall to the other. I did that for a couple years then I decided to buy my own bike and then really got in to biking big time. I haven't ridden in Galveston in years though.

 

 

Thanks!  I didn't realize the seawall went that far east.  Ever tried to ride to the ferry and take it across to the Bolivar peninsula?  I'm not familiar enough with that part of Galveston to know if there's a route with a reasonable chance that you won't get run over.

52 minutes ago, mattyt36 said:

Color me confused as to why you would opine so strongly initially without reading the media coverage to begin with. There is only one newspaper of record in Houston, so it’s not even a tough Google. “I think we’d have to examine the actual speech Ed Young made,” you said.

Uh huh. It’s called Google if you are so obsessed about what was or wasn’t said.

Seriously, dude, give me a break. Yeah, “Thanks for the link,” for sure.

The rest of your response can be dismissed due to the disingenuousness with which it began.

Re-reading my initial post on this, I wouldn't characterize it as opining strongly.  In point of fact, I agreed with you that we should be particularly skeptical of election season rhetoric.  I was just pointing out that the IRS has specific rules that it applies in revoking exemptions.  And at that point, I had only seen the KHOU post and wasn't inclined to dive in head-first in an analysis to try to predict what the IRS would actually do.

It is true, though, that I'm not particularly obsessed with what Ed Young or any other pastor says from the pulpit.  I think I explained the why on that in one of the posts above.  If the IRS finds he's violating the rule and revokes his exemption, I'm fine with that.  If they examine it and determine he's coloring within the lines, I'm fine with that too.  But, I'm not going to be the one to call for torches and pitchforks just because he spoke his mind, right or wrong.

On 8/17/2022 at 9:40 AM, hindesky said:

Big bicycle ride coming to Galveston on the weekend of August 26,27,& 28.

I made a trip to Galveston for a meeting of volunteers working the Se Bikes Island Rideout that is happening on the weekend of August 26th 27th and 28th. My buddy who owns Island Bicycle Company on the seawall at 18th St. is putting it on. This will be their second version of the ride. They are expecting lots of riders and he asked me to volunteer along with lots of other people. A bunch of the SE Team of riders are showing up.

Jeff and I put on about 7 MTB races in the early 90's. The first two were what are called outlaw races since we didn't have the authorization from any Bike race organizations, they were called Thrash in the Trash I and II.  It was a 6 mile course in what was an old sand pit and hills of dirt. Those hills of dirt were used to build the southeast portion of Beltway 8 and is now a housing subdivision. The next 5 we used NORBA which was the organization which supplied authorization. Actually lawyers that if we got sued by any riders they would back us up. Those races were at Jack Brooks Park in Hitchcock. 6 mile course with very technical course. Those were called The Poison Ivy Classic I, II, III and then we changed the name to The Dragonback Classic I and II since the name Poison Ivy might turn off some riders who were allergic to it.

Left early to beat the traffic so I could drive around Galveston. I used to go once a week for years but haven't been in years.

https://www.islandrideout.com

https://www.instagram.com/sebikes_island_rideout/

https://www.galveston.com/calendarofevents/island-rideout-and-bike-expo/

https://www.islandbicyclecompany.com

https://www.sebikes.com/pages/riders

https://www.sebikes.com/blogs/news/are-you-registered-for-the-island-rideout

Total tangent here, but on my bike to-do list is to ride the seawall end to end and back again.  Any tips on where to park for that?  Would prefer not to pay for parking along the seawall if I can help it as I'd probably make stops along the way and would be gone for hours.

Also, any other bike routes in Galveston that are worth driving down there for?

30 minutes ago, mattyt36 said:

Augie, I don't think you're dense or of the dim variety, so I must question myself, how can that be "the take" of someone who I may disagree with politically, but think is sensible.  It's either you think this is all some sort of game, in which "nothing really matters" or you actually earnestly believe what you wrote.

To, as you say, "paraphrase":

Second Baptist pastor Ed Young calls for Democrats to be voted out during sermon (chron.com)

During Dr. Ed Young's sermon to Second Baptist Church in Houston Sunday, the prominent preacher called on congregants to vote out elected officials who he considers at fault for the city's crime. The pastor argued that "delayed justice," including bail bonds, is to blame for the rising rates and is what occurs when "you put left-wing progressives in office."

"If Houston and Harris County is to survive, we had better throw those bums out of office." said Young, who's served as lead pastor at Second Baptist Church since 1978. "They are not doing their job that we have called them to."

That seems, er, pretty black and white. Either it happened mostly as it was described or it didn't.  Maybe it was an innocent "slip of the tongue," so to speak.

If it didn't happen as described, Ed Young has had a week to correct the record.

He hasn't.

Ergo it more than likely happened mostly as it was described.

So, I ask again--very simple question--assuming the above happened (without even asking if you believe it), on a simple question of the rule of law as it exists (again, whether you agree with it or not is immaterial) . . . this is, as we say, "a question of principle" . . . do you think that guy should maintain the privileged tax-exempt status?  Just say yes, absolutely, this guy has it right and I don't care.  In fact, it'd be much better if the US had more religious leadership, the foundational tenet of religious freedom in the Constitution be damned.  It's much easier than going on about how "we don't have the facts . . . we only know what we have read" (Surely you never thought you would be one to say such a thing, or do I have you completely wrong?) and "actually, a quick read of the IRS code says . . . "  (If there's one thing I give the Republicans credit for, it's endurance, as I would find such pretzel logic beyond exhausting.)

Thank you for posting the chron article.  That gives a little more clarity on what he actually said. 

That said, I favor broad leeway on free speech and I find it disturbing that the typical reaction to speech someone doesn't like to be an attempt to shut it down.  Thus, I'm not inclined to call for the punishment of someone who's speaking their mind, even if I think they're dead wrong in data or interpretation.  The proper response, in my opinion, is the exercise of free speech by others to rebut or counter the speech, not to intimidate or to take legal action.

As for the IRS, there are specific rules regarding what can cause an organization to lose it's tax exempt status.  I am, however, no expert in this regulation and my experiences have taught me that the way things actually work in the legal world are frequently not the way we assume they work.

I'm quite sure SBC is regularly complained about and perhaps investigated in this regards.  I'm not going to call for that, though.  Nor would I call for it if a liberal leaning pastor were to make similar statements about a Republican administration, candidates, or policies.

3 minutes ago, editor said:

I've never thought about it.  It seems like a good idea.

I recently shut down the Chicago Architecture web sites, which contained thousands of articles and thousands of facts, blueprints, and other content available nowhere else.  An organization there approached me about archiving it somewhere, but then stopped responding to e-mails.  It's a shame, because I didn't feed it all into archive.org because I thought the org would be a better steward of it.   Now it's all sitting on a hard drive bit-rotting.

It would be a shame for the same thing to happen to HAIF.  I don't know that any local institution would be interested.  But I think I'll make an effort to ensure that all of the pages of HAIF are at least submitted to archive.org.  It's not much, but it's something.

As for the upgrade, there were two reasons it took so long.  First, I moved HAIF to a new sever, which is never fun.  And second, the move required rebuilding the message database, which is over 600,000 items.  Plus indicies of all of the uploaded files, and a million other things.

I kept popping in to look at the progress bar slowly inch along:  0.03% complete... 0.11% complete... 1.02% complete...

I feel your pain.  I can't even count the number of times I've done upgrades, server moves, full environment restores, etc. over the course of my career, some taking multiple days to complete.

There's a chance someone on this board is in a position at UH, particularly in the school of architecture, to archive this or has someone in their rolodex who might be interested.  If so, speak up.  It'd be a shame to lose this as I'm sure it's also a shame that Chicago has lost similar info.

7 hours ago, editor said:

Well that took a metric ass-load of time. 

Sorry that HAIF was offline for... lemme check... 15 hours!

I moved everything to a new server to prepare for future upgrades.  Hopefully I managed to piece everything back together again and it all works.

If you notice anything strange, e-mail me at editor@houstonarchitecture.com, so i can get on it right away.  Hopefully I don't have to restore the backup.

As a point of interest, HAIF is currently 16.9GB in size. 

With the upgrade that finished a few minutes ago, there are some new features.  But it's almost midnight, and I'm tired, and the cat is acting up, so I'll post about them tomorrow.

Your hard work is much appreciated.  I'm sure I'm not alone in this sentiment.

Even though the IT guy in me knew this was probably just some extended maintenance (based on the timing), in the back of my mind I starting thinking about the chances the site might go offline permanently at some point.

I may have brought this up before and just don't remember, but is there a plan to pass the db on to a local institution if it ever has to shut down permanently?  The reason I say this is there is quite a bit of oral history encompassed here, both contemporary to events (see the Heights Walmart thread) and from people who post their recollections on Houston of old.  This site is a unique resource for local history that doesn't exist anywhere else and would be valuable in the UH or HPL collections if it goes dark online.

Just my two cents...

7 hours ago, editor said:

Is there an actual trigger, or is it like the FCC and no action is taken until someone files a complaint?

I don't think it's an automatic thing.  I'm sure the IRS has to do an investigation, prompted either internally or externally.

3 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

Oh boy, Augie, I didn’t know it was THAT bad. I know people saying things and hundreds of other people hearing it directly and then it being confirmed independently has increasingly confused a certain political demographic for a long time for matters of convenience (admittedly now at a logarithmic scale since 2016). For whatever reason, said demographic is completely incapable of contemplating that things as written, which make complete sense on their face by simple powers of observation, are or even can be accurate. Are you holding that it is likely that Ed Young didn’t even make the comments alleged in the Chronicle and it is all an innocent misunderstanding? Has Ed Young clarified, or perhaps apologized in good faith for any potential misunderstanding to “advance the dialogue”? Just say “SO WHAT? I don’t care.”

Instead of arguing over the circumstances, let’s start with first principles. IF the article is more-or-less accurate, why not tell us your position on the tax-exempt status? Cuz, pardon me for being presumptuous, survey says your answer is probably doesn’t matter, regardless (or, probably more likely “every tax-exempt organization is corrupt, so why does it matter?”), so why waste your time on arguing simple technicalities?

Best to focus on the substance of the issue than going out of the way to employ gaslighting techniques, i.e., “Did anyone hear him say literally those things, and, if he did, did anyone ask him if he was joking? And if he wasn’t joking, did anyone ask him if he literally believed it? Because if he believed it, no matter how ridiculous it was, it’s OK.” (Same sort of logic with claiming FBI planting documents, and then saying documents were declassified, then saying the documents were in private cartons, etc, and people still thinking everything is A-OK … half the country has seem to have lost its mind trying to make excuses for the absolute obvious. OJ Simpson and Claus Von Bulow would want you on their juries … everything is all just a coincidence and so many people have it out for me, so it can’t possibly be true! It’s certainly no coincidence Trump has Dershowitz in common between those two.)

Such is how propaganda works (if you even believe it to begin with, that is). But I suspect you know this. (At least the part of you that has not completely surrendered to cynicism does.)

Ok...

What I see above is that Young said Houston may be the most dangerous city in the country right now.  Shall we go get a rope?

A quick reading of the IRS rules reveals that you have to engage in extensive political activity as a representative of the church in question.  If you make it clear that this is your personal opinion, then that doesn't count (per the IRS).  That makes sense since, for now, we still have a right to free speech. 

So, on to his actual sermon, did he couch this as his personal opinion?  Did he directly blame Turner, Hidalgo, or Biden for the crime situation?  Did he implore his congregation to vote Republican in November?  We wouldn't know since we've only heard a paraphrase from a source of a source.

I've personally heard church pastors and other church leaders inveigh against real or perceived moral issues of the day from the pulpit.  That is not something new or limited to just well off, Republican leaning churches.  Without further context, it sounds like he was literally preaching to the choir.

5 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

This is why am always skeptical of this crime rhetoric, which always rears its head in election season. 

I really wish people like Ed Young would face consequences for being so overtly political (there are of course plenty of other and worse examples across the country). Time to yank tax-exempt status and come clean that this was all part of a deliberate political operation.

 

You're right to be particularly skeptical of election season rhetoric. 

As for rescinding tax-exempt status there are specific rules for what does or does not trigger that.  I think we'd have to examine the actual speech Ed Young gave.  Right now all I've seen is what someone says that someone says that he said.

22 minutes ago, editor said:

Graphs with no sources are meaningless.  Especially ones like the above, which purports to show information for 2021 and 2022.  2021 information hasn't been fully tabulated yet.  2022 isn't even over.  So I hope you understand that to me, it seems like the chart is fake.

The Department of Homeland Security's most recent statistics show a decrease in the most recent year for which numbers are available: 2020.

2009: 889,212

2010: 796,587

2011: 678,606

2012: 671,327

2013: 662,483

2014: 679,996

2015: 462,388

2016: 530,250

2017: 461,540

2018: 572,566

2019: 1,013,539

2020: 518,597

Source  (page 91)

DHS stats show the most active period was 1995-2001, when between 1.3 and 1.8 million people were apprehended each year.

While I appreciate your enthusiasm for the subject, let's not use HAIF to spread misinformation lies.  If you got it from social media, there's a non-zero chance it was planted there by people who are gullible, greedy, or do not have America's best interests in mind. 

Statements of fact should be backed by sources.

As referenced above, I got this via CNN.  However, since CNN isn't always a reliable source of information, mea culpa.

Just now, mkultra25 said:

New marketing campaign: "TXDOT: Workin' on mysteries without any clues".

That must be why they work at night so much...

18 minutes ago, mattyt36 said:

There are no hills in Houston

They must have been running against the wind, then...

10 hours ago, dbigtex56 said:

Love those windows, and I imagine that the interior might contain some solid woodwork, fixtures, and hardwood floors.
Seems unlikely that any effort will be made to salvage anything.

The windows are beautiful.  Makes me think of all the kerfluffle that went around about old windows when the Heights historic district was established. 

2 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

Well done TxDOT

And well done Gov. Abbott?

https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-txdot-announce-record-85-billion-10-year-transportation-plan

20 minutes ago, mattyt36 said:

I don’t remember a bunch of Carter supporters storming the Capitol, threatening a Civil War, or Nixon becoming president again in 1980, but pls correct me if I’m wrong.

In my recollection, the 1980 election hinged on inflation and the appearance of weakness in the sitting president, not on Watergate or other political events that had happened four or more years earlier.

13 minutes ago, Ross said:

Times were different then. Politicians had some sense of honor, and tended to be fairly decent people who actually got along with their political opposites and could discuss things rationally with them. 

And so the expectation is that people will love how the Biden administration has done things and re-elect him?

The brilliance of that Reagan campaign slogan was that it encapsulates the tendency of voters to consider if they are doing better or worse under the current president.  That needle is decidedly in the red right now.

11 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

Only in the feverest of fever dreams.  The only way this happens is if they cancel or override the elections.  (Which, admittedly, they're pretty much openly saying they will do now, so I suppose certainly within the realm of possibility.)

I don't recall the elections of 1980, 1984, and 1988 being cancelled or overridden and I can, unfortunately, remember the Carter presidency.

12 minutes ago, mattyt36 said:

Well, actually we may not have to wait until 2024.  The Former Guy is now calling for the 2020 election to be called for him, almost 2 years after the fact, and if that doesn't work, a "do-over" election.  So, I guess Biden may actually be out before 2024, considering this will eventually become the official position of the Republican Party and its base of wannabe Confederates.

Trump Demands a New 2020 Election Right Now! (nymag.com)

Not likely the RNC would officially push this.  Too much hay to be made over the next two election cycles on deep state and media interference in our democracy at the behest of the DNC.  It's kind of like how the Dems complain about Dreamers but then don't actually do something about it.  Makes a great talking point.  Plus I'm sure they want to let the Jimmy Carter II scenario play out.  Could be 12 years of Republican white house ascendancy starting in 2024.

2 minutes ago, mattyt36 said:

A little research would show that this is entirely attributable to a change in how they counted enforcement actions--see 

CBP Enforcement Statistics Fiscal Year 2022 | U.S. Customs and Border Protection

"Beginning in March FY20,  OFO Encounters statistics include both Title 8  Inadmissibles and Title 42 Expulsions. To learn more, visit: Title-8-and-Title-42-Statistics. Inadmissibles refers to individuals encountered at ports of entry who are seeking lawful admission into the United States but are determined to be inadmissible, individuals presenting themselves to seek humanitarian protection under our laws, and individuals who withdraw an application for admission and return to their countries of origin within a short timeframe."

"Beginning in March FY20,  USBP Encounters statistics include both Title 8  Apprehensions and Title 42 Expulsions. To learn more, visit: Title-8-and-Title-42-Statistics. Apprehensions refers to the physical control or temporary detainment of a person who is not lawfully in the U.S. which may or may not result in an arrest."

This page shows counts of those, which were not in the data prior to March 2020:

Title 8 Apprehensions and Title 42 Expulsions: 1.817MM for the 10-month period ended July 2022.

Title 8 Inadmissibles and Title 42 Expulsions: 201K for the 10-month period ended July 2022.

Your data appears to be some subset of the CBP enforcement action data.

(I mean, c'mon, you could see from one look at that that something was very likely off . . . why politicize?)

So you're saying this is fake news from CNN?  I guess that's not too surprising, then...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/29/us/mexico-border-encounter-data-analysis-cec/index.html