Hurricane Ike

[westguy]

It's late in the game for evacuations. They've waited way too long to start evacuations in Galveston, probably because that would frighten people further out, who would again block the routes of the people who need it most. People brought their pets with them, and many died on the highway from heat exhaustion. It's probably best just to stay in Katy. Ike was not taken seriously enough because a lot of people were counting on that Louisiana or Corpus or Matagorda landfall. At this time during Rita, preparations were well on their way. Now there's a real threat of a hit on Galveston from a larger, yet also powerful storm.

[RedScare]

It's late in the game for evacuations. They've waited way too long to start evacuations in Galveston, probably because that would frighten people further out, who would again block the routes of the people who need it most. People brought their pets with them, and many died on the highway from heat exhaustion. It's probably best just to stay in Katy. Ike was not taken seriously enough because a lot of people were counting on that Louisiana or Corpus or Matagorda landfall. At this time during Rita, preparations were well on their way. Now there's a real threat of a hit on Galveston from a larger, yet also powerful storm.

I disagree. It is still 60 hours out. Conditions will not degrade appreciably for at least 24-36 hours. Residents who have paid attention still have all of tonight plus all of tomorrow to get out without trouble.

[houstonmacbro]

I disagree. It is still 60 hours out. Conditions will not degrade appreciably for at least 24-36 hours. Residents who have paid attention still have all of tonight plus all of tomorrow to get out without trouble.

So ... given your best knowledge, do you really think the storm is coming into the Houston area? Anyone interested in a poll on this can look at and vote in one running at http://lsc-nhstars.blogspot.com

So far it's kinda split between No (it's not coming this way) and Still Too Early to Tell.

[PapillionWyngs]

I disagree. It is still 60 hours out. Conditions will not degrade appreciably for at least 24-36 hours. Residents who have paid attention still have all of tonight plus all of tomorrow to get out without trouble.

I am just not sure who should go!

[RedScare]

So ... given your best knowledge, do you really think the storm is coming into the Houston area? Anyone interested in a poll on this can look at and vote in one running at http://lsc-nhstars.blogspot.com

So far it's kinda split between No (it's not coming this way) and Still Too Early to Tell.

My best guess, admittedly as an amatuer hurricane freak, is landfall at Freeport, or a little west, bringing strong winds up the west side of Houston metro. I also think it will be a stronger storm than Alicia.

[RedScare]

Word is, the hurricane hunters found pressure has dropped to 942 mb. NHC reported 947 in its 7 pm forecast.

[tmariar]

Jeff Masters fans - he's just started talking on this live feed.

Here are some excerpts from his 8:15PM blog post:

Hurricane Ike is intensifying dramatically. The central pressure has dropped 11 mb in just four hours, and stood at 947 mb at 7 pm EDT. The latest Hurricane Hunter data show that the pressure is continuing to fall at a rapid pace. The winds have not caught up yet to the pressure fall, and remain at Catgeroy 2 strength. The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved markedly, as Ike has walled off the dry air that was bothering it, and has built a solid eyewall of 9 miles diameter of very intense thunderstorms. The appearance of Ike on infrared satellite loops is similar to Hurricane Wilma during its rapid intensification phase, when Wilma became the strongest hurricane on record. Like Wilma, Ike has a very tiny "pinhole" eye, but the storm is huge in size. Ike has a long way to go to match Wilma, but I expect Ike will be at least a Category 3 hurricane by morning, and probably a Category 4.

Ike is almost as large as Katrina was, and this large wind field is already beginning to pile up a formidable storm surge. Tides are running 2-4 feet above normal along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida. Tides have risen one foot above normal in Galveston already, too. The water level will continue to rise as Ike approaches Texas, and NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast (Figure 1) is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 10-12 feet at Galveston, and 18-21 feet on the south and east sides of Houston.

Ike is likely to be a extremely dangerous major hurricane at landfall, and will likely do $10-$30 billion in damage. The chances of hundreds of people being killed in this storm is high if people do not heed evacuation orders. It is possible that Ike will make a direct hit on Galveston as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. The potential storm surge from such a hit could be in the 15-25 foot range (Figure 2), which is capable of overwhelming the 17 foot sea wall in Galveston. I put the odds of such an event at about 5%.

Track forecast for Ike

The latest 18Z (2pm EDT) computer models are still in poor agreement. The GFDL still has Ike making landfall at Galveston as a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane, and the rest of the models have landfall farther south, near Port O'Connor. With a trough of low pressure expected to turn Ike northwestward close to landfall time, slight variations in the timing of this trough among the models is causing a large spread in landfall locations. The cone of uncertainty still covers the entire Texas coast, and residents of southwestern Louisiana are also at risk.

I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds. At 5 pm EDT, NHC called for these odds of getting hurricane force winds at various Texas cities:

Corpus Christi: 15%

Port O'Connor: 26%

Freeport: 30%

Galveston: 25%

Houston: 20%

Port Arthur: 13%

As you can see, Freeport is considered the most likely city in Texas to receive hurricane force winds. I believe the percentages for the cities above are too low, and should be bumped up by 5-10%.

Intensity forecast for Ike

The intensity forecast remains the same. Water temperatures are a warm 29.5

[musicman]

they had an afternoon meeting at the space center and mgmt there was told (by weather personnel) that JSC will experience hurricane force winds and the storm surge in galveston will be 8-12 ft. the guard is setting up along 45N in the huntsville area according to coworker evacuating to dallas. said it looked as if they were preparing for contraflow lanes.

[houstonmacbro]

they had an afternoon meeting at the space center and mgmt there was told (by weather personnel) that JSC will experience hurricane force winds and the storm surge in galveston will be 8-12 ft. the guard is setting up along 45N in the huntsville area according to coworker evacuating to dallas. said it looked as if they were preparing for contraflow lanes.

Did anyone see the video pictures from Cuba. Man, they had waves crashing into the city that looked like the tsunami that hit Indonesia. Scary.

Also, I think police and rescue workers get MUCH better data than they release to the general public. In my 4 hour meeting this afternoon, one of my colleagues got a text message from a friend that lives in Humble. Apparently her husband is a police officer (not sure what division) and they (that particular family) were evacuating from Humble... Not sure what that is telling us, but...

[RedScare]

they had an afternoon meeting at the space center and mgmt there was told (by weather personnel) that JSC will experience hurricane force winds and the storm surge in galveston will be 8-12 ft. the guard is setting up along 45N in the huntsville area according to coworker evacuating to dallas. said it looked as if they were preparing for contraflow lanes.

I think contraflow is scheduled for sometime tomorrow. I'm heading into work in Conroe, and will be able to check on the status (it begins just north of the Woodlands). I'll report back later.

[Samsoner]

First-time hurricane evacuee!

I live in Pearland, Brazoria County and they're kicking us out at 8 am tommorrow. My route says to go up the Beltway towards College Station.

BUT, here's the thing.

NO ONE'S MOVING ON MY BLOCK!!! I asked a neighbor, and he said he's staying.

?????????????

Anyways, can anyone recommend any motels/hotels along the west Beltway? How's north west Houston in terms of flooding? Thanks.

- And I'm not familiar with the towns outside of Houston, so if I were to find a closer alternative to College Station, where should I go?

[westguy]

There're tons of hotels in Westchase if you're looking along the west Beltway. There's definitely no surge threat, and I don't remember the area flooding during Allison.

[TheNiche]

Apparently her husband is a police officer (not sure what division) and they (that particular family) were evacuating from Humble... Not sure what that is telling us, but...

Probably one of two things: either someone is getting too much negative information and is panicking as a result, or more likely, the husband will have to work and neither he or his department wants to be worrying about the well-being of family members. Either way, for someone like that, making absolutely certain that their family is safe is probably a good idea.

[marmer]

First-time hurricane evacuee!

I live in Pearland, Brazoria County and they're kicking us out at 8 am tommorrow. My route says to go up the Beltway towards College Station.

BUT, here's the thing.

NO ONE'S MOVING ON MY BLOCK!!! I asked a neighbor, and he said he's staying.

My take on it, as a Pearland resident at 9:20 PM, is that the Brazoria County Emergency Management Office probably jumped the gun about the mandatory evac order at least where northern Brazoria County is concerned. Pearland Schools, at least as I write this, are open tomorrow and the City of Pearland web site says the Mayor is NOT ordering mandatory evac for Pearland. It may come to that in the next 24 hours but it looks to me like anything north of Angleton will probably be OK-ish in terms of storm surge because we're pretty far from Galveston Bay and the Ship Channel.

If I were going, I would find someplace to stay with friends because hotels will be hard to find. I tend to agree that the northwest side of Houston will probably be OK even if Pearland is evacuated.

[TheNiche]

First-time hurricane evacuee!

I live in Pearland, Brazoria County and they're kicking us out at 8 am tommorrow. My route says to go up the Beltway towards College Station.

BUT, here's the thing.

NO ONE'S MOVING ON MY BLOCK!!! I asked a neighbor, and he said he's staying.

?????????????

Anyways, can anyone recommend any motels/hotels along the west Beltway? How's north west Houston in terms of flooding? Thanks.

- And I'm not familiar with the towns outside of Houston, so if I were to find a closer alternative to College Station, where should I go?

Pearland is pretty safe. Most of it is new construction, you don't have a lot of mature trees that can fall on your house, you have tremendous flood control projects, and you've got adequate city services. Also, there is no danger of storm surge in Pearland. The worst case scenario is that a tornado strikes your neighborhood...but they could strike west Houston just as easily.

[sheeats]

An informal poll that's going around about Hurricane Ike and the workplace:

http://www.micropoll.com/akira/mpview/474940-105547

[20thStDad]

Our office at 521 and 2234 is closed tomorrow. I know people in SCR who are staying put.

[westguy]

My parents have decided to stay put in Galveston. Not in a shelter, though. I think they're crazy.

Personally, I'm tempted to take any days off of work that I can and go camping in West Texas like I did during Rita. Never mind the storm, I need a vacation!

BTW, your parents should leave immediately. Landfall is too uncertain for them to remain comfortable there. After every hour it looks worse for the Houston-Galveston area. Ike is a bigger threat than Rita because of its size.

[houstonmacbro]

BTW, your parents should leave immediately. Landfall is too uncertain for them to remain comfortable there. After every hour it looks worse for the Houston-Galveston area. Ike is a bigger threat than Rita because of its size.

I guess I need to tune back in to TWC. From everything I was seeing Houston area was a lone track and not on-track with the rest of the models...?

[OkieEric]

I don't dare to try and predict where Ike will make landfall, but I can guarantee this - I will get absolutely nothing done tomorrow at work

But seriously, has anyone else not heard a thing from work? We were off Thursday and Friday for Rita, but haven't gotten a single email as of yet

[Rammer]

It's one thing to roll the dice by purchasing a crappy little beach house on the west end of Galveston Island and accepting the consequences. It's something else to spend huge dollars on a vulnerable $$$ eyecatching McBeachmansion. Checkout the homes on De Vaca Ln on Google Earth...while they still exist. (Their other home is probably hanging over the ledge of a California cliff).

[TheNiche]

BTW, your parents should leave immediately. Landfall is too uncertain for them to remain comfortable there. After every hour it looks worse for the Houston-Galveston area. Ike is a bigger threat than Rita because of its size.

Yeah, I know. They're crazy. I've already made that abundantly clear to each of them. Granted, they're in a building that has survived every hurricane that's come along since before the 1900 storm, and granted that they're right down the block from the only wood frame structure in downtown Galveston to survive 1900, but they aren't even putting up plywood or moving furniture away from windows...and I offered to help with that tonight.

Meanwhile I'm feasting upon frozen pizza, hot pockets, and beer, trying to clear out my refrigerated/frozen perishibles.

[sheeats]

I don't dare to try and predict where Ike will make landfall, but I can guarantee this - I will get absolutely nothing done tomorrow at work

But seriously, has anyone else not heard a thing from work? We were off Thursday and Friday for Rita, but haven't gotten a single email as of yet

Not an email or anything from my company, too. I think a lot of Houston-area businesses were burned by Rita (and employees just taking off) and don't want to make the same mistake again, so they're reluctant to say anything that employees might construe as "PANIC! LEAVE NOW!" The head of HR at my company put it a more technical way: "We don't want to give any employees a motive or reason to not come in to work." Translation: "Business as usual is far more important than our employees' welfare."

I've got some coworkers who live in coastal areas that are simply taking vacation days tomorrow and Friday to prepare, board up, etc. Shame that some companies are so cold when it comes to situations like this.

[TheNiche]

But seriously, has anyone else not heard a thing from work? We were off Thursday and Friday for Rita, but haven't gotten a single email as of yet

Nor have I. In fact, they just loaded me down with assignments that are due Monday.

[houstonmacbro]

I don't dare to try and predict where Ike will make landfall, but I can guarantee this - I will get absolutely nothing done tomorrow at work

But seriously, has anyone else not heard a thing from work? We were off Thursday and Friday for Rita, but haven't gotten a single email as of yet

We're getting constant e-mails from our security chief, but no indication as to whether offices will close. I am glad for the information. I think we were overly cautious on Gustav (just rain and a little bit of wind), so they are being even more cautious this time around.

We probably won't hear anything definitive until tomorrow evening at the earliest.

[TheNiche]

Not an email or anything from my company, too. I think a lot of Houston-area businesses were burned by Rita (and employees just taking off) and don't want to make the same mistake again, so they're reluctant to say anything that employees might construe as "PANIC! LEAVE NOW!" The head of HR at my company put it a more technical way: "We don't want to give any employees a motive or reason to not come in to work." Translation: "Business as usual is far more important than our employees' welfare."

I've got some coworkers who live in coastal areas that are simply taking vacation days tomorrow and Friday to prepare, board up, etc. Shame that some companies are so cold when it comes to situations like this.

They got "burned" by employees last time so they're being "cold" to employees this time. Maybe by being cold, the actions of their employees will leave them "temperate" when all is said and done.

[musicman]

we were told noon tomorrow would be it however the storm continues to move nw vs wnw which isn't a good thing.

latest track now says freeport according ot 39news

[OkieEric]

Not an email or anything from my company, too. I think a lot of Houston-area businesses were burned by Rita (and employees just taking off) and don't want to make the same mistake again, so they're reluctant to say anything that employees might construe as "PANIC! LEAVE NOW!" The head of HR at my company put it a more technical way: "We don't want to give any employees a motive or reason to not come in to work." Translation: "Business as usual is far more important than our employees' welfare."

I've got some coworkers who live in coastal areas that are simply taking vacation days tomorrow and Friday to prepare, board up, etc. Shame that some companies are so cold when it comes to situations like this.

This is not a good situation. Landfall just a little over 2 days out and the track just shifted north again

[houstonmacbro]

I've got some coworkers who live in coastal areas that are simply taking vacation days tomorrow and Friday to prepare, board up, etc.

I have never boarded up windows before. Do I really need to be concerned and thinking about this (FM 1960 @ I45 area)?

[cottonmather0]

The track this evening seems to have shifted east again. This is starting to feel like Rita all over again - Beaumont and Lake Charles had better get ready.

BTW - I just filled up both our cars and the gas stations are starting to get crowded. If you are reading this right now, you might want to go ahead and get out tonight and do it yourself if you need gas - tomorrow it might be too late (or maybe not based on my first paragraph ).