Which area has the chance at the best price appreciation?

[Bacchus]

I'm considering buying a townhome in the following four areas:

1) Rice Military

2) Midtown near Brazos Street

3) Midtown near LaBranch (near Baldwin Park)

4) Museum District just south of 59

I believe each of these areas has the potential to really develop as a neighborhood over the next 5 years (my estimated time in the place). Here is what I like about them:

1) Rice Military --> Can appeal to potential home owners who work in either downtown or uptown. The neighborhood is improving rapidly and as more commerce fills in on Washington, it has the chance to have quite a few entertainment/food/retail options nearby.

2) Midtown near Brazos Street --> Very very close to downtown, walking distance of restaurants, bars, easy access to 59

3) Midtown near LaBranch --> Again, close to downtown, the Collective at Baldwin Park could spur a string of retail/food alternatives in the immediate area

4) Museum District --> Stately neighborhood with character and access to med center/Rice

I believe the macro trends of congestion on the highways and higher fuel costs will continue to provide positive momentum for inner loop land values. Given that a house is likely the largest investment I'll ever make, I want to do this right.

Which of the four regions listed do you feel has the most potential? I'd love to hear your thoughts. My ranking would likely be Rice Military, Museum District, Midtown near LaBranch, and Midtown near Brazos.

[TheNiche]

Which of the four regions listed do you feel has the most potential? I'd love to hear your thoughts. My ranking would likely be Rice Military, Museum District, Midtown near LaBranch, and Midtown near Brazos.

Top of the list is without a doubt the Museum District. It is a very popular area with many amenities within walking distance, and is well-positioned to take advantage of rapid employment growth in the Texas Medical Center.

[cooper]

Of your choices I like the Museum District and Rice Military. But I would put the Museum District at the top also, based on location and proximity to TMC, museums and DT.

But prices in the area are rising quickly, and they weren't that cheap to begin with.

[Houston1stWordOnTheMoon]

I would say the Museum District because it isnt "over done" yet.

[mpbro]

I like some of the neighborhoods just *north* of 59, west of Montrose. Some are zoned to Poe elementary. The more easterly part looks sharp after the new Montrose bridge over 59 went in. Assuming (???) the next MetroRail expansion goes down Richmond...the whole area is nicely positioned.

[musicman]

museum district, midtown brazos, i think rice military and midtown labranch area are running neck and neck as they both have their cons

[Bacchus]

I spent a fair amount of time in the Wichita/Palm/Southmore/Austin area of the Museum District this weekend, and am really having a hard time getting excited about it. While I do like the width of the streets, the grassy medians, the proximity to Hermann Park, museums, and Rice, I do not like the pockets of bad apartment complexes, shady strip centers, and inaccessibility to respectable dining/shopping alternatives. The closest grocery store is the ratty Fiesta at San Jacinto and 59 -- a place I would not feel comfortable leaving my car for 20 minutes. I suppose the dining/retail options would include heading over to the Rice village or up to West Gray, but these are both decent drives, made worse by the need to cross heavily trafficked streets (with poorly timed lights). Almeda is a long ways from being developed, even with the Mosaic going verticle (looked like about 5-6 stories high thus far).

My biggest fear is that you are really betting on the come by investing in that area. Yes, property tax hikes could flush the run down apt complexes out over time, but guess what -- you've got to live next to them until that happens. I recognize that it's hard to find a community where you don't have a few landmines that you have to avoid, but if I'm going to live in and among some of these problems, at least give me better access to shopping and retail. I suppose I just have to get more comfortable in an urban setting -- finding the security and safety of the suburbs inside the loop is perhaps an unrealistic expectation.

[cooper]

I recognize that it's hard to find a community where you don't have a few landmines that you have to avoid, but if I'm going to live in and among some of these problems, at least give me better access to shopping and retail.

I would agree that there are a few. However, all of the choices you mention have some or all of the same problems, to a greater or lesser degree. Houston is still developing/defining its core, so its still a work in progress, and retail/dining/shopping could be improved and is evolving in all of the areas you mention.

I suppose I just have to get more comfortable in an urban setting -- finding the security and safety of the suburbs inside the loop is perhaps an unrealistic expectation.

Yes, I think this may be key. Living in an urban setting vs living in the burbs usually require different mindsets/lifestyle choices.

The present snapshot of any of the listed areas is an incomplete one at best. All things considered, I would still say that the Museum District area is the area with the "chance at the best price appreciation", to answer the original question.

[sevfiv]

I spent a fair amount of time in the Wichita/Palm/Southmore/Austin area of the Museum District this weekend, and am really having a hard time getting excited about it. While I do like the width of the streets, the grassy medians, the proximity to Hermann Park, museums, and Rice, I do not like the pockets of bad apartment complexes, shady strip centers, and inaccessibility to respectable dining/shopping alternatives. The closest grocery store is the ratty Fiesta at San Jacinto and 59 -- a place I would not feel comfortable leaving my car for 20 minutes. I suppose the dining/retail options would include heading over to the Rice village or up to West Gray, but these are both decent drives, made worse by the need to cross heavily trafficked streets (with poorly timed lights). Almeda is a long ways from being developed, even with the Mosaic going verticle (looked like about 5-6 stories high thus far).

My biggest fear is that you are really betting on the come by investing in that area. Yes, property tax hikes could flush the run down apt complexes out over time, but guess what -- you've got to live next to them until that happens. I recognize that it's hard to find a community where you don't have a few landmines that you have to avoid, but if I'm going to live in and among some of these problems, at least give me better access to shopping and retail. I suppose I just have to get more comfortable in an urban setting -- finding the security and safety of the suburbs inside the loop is perhaps an unrealistic expectation.

i live in the area you spoke of - and very close to one of those complexes you are talking about. while the cost is already a little on the high side, it is just increasing, and little by little, the less fortunate ($) folks are getting run out.

i wouldn't say it's the safest neck of the woods, but it is generally a nice community.

unfortunately, the biggest problem on my street is with drugs, which happens to not only come from the requisite apartment drug dealers, but also the yuppie condo people next door

that said, the character of the neighborhood is devolving due to new development. anyone get to go on the latest GHPA walking tour of the Binz district? i bet is was fascinating.

Edited November 13, 2006 by sevfiv

[jdbaker]

I spent a fair amount of time in the Wichita/Palm/Southmore/Austin area of the Museum District this weekend, and am really having a hard time getting excited about it. While I do like the width of the streets, the grassy medians, the proximity to Hermann Park, museums, and Rice, I do not like the pockets of bad apartment complexes, shady strip centers, and inaccessibility to respectable dining/shopping alternatives. The closest grocery store is the ratty Fiesta at San Jacinto and 59 -- a place I would not feel comfortable leaving my car for 20 minutes. I suppose the dining/retail options would include heading over to the Rice village or up to West Gray, but these are both decent drives, made worse by the need to cross heavily trafficked streets (with poorly timed lights). Almeda is a long ways from being developed, even with the Mosaic going verticle (looked like about 5-6 stories high thus far).

It sounds like the neighborhood that you're looking for is right across the street. It's called West University. It's surrounded by respectable dining and safe places to park you car. If you look hard you might be able to find something priced under $700k.

As for me, I'm glad the Museum District still has it's far share of eyesores. They represent opportunity. Almeda is primed to explode now. Think Washington Ave. only better architecture and better location. And, when the University rail line opens, the Museum district will become the first Houston Neighborhood with viable public transportation. I think people underestimate the value this will create.

Without the eyesores, the Museum District would already be filled with the kind of people who are afraid to park their cars at Fiesta. It would also be among the most expensive places to live in the entire city, and given a few years it probably will be, but for now there is still a window of opportunity.

[musicman]

And, when the University rail line opens, the Museum district will become the first Houston Neighborhood with viable public transportation.

What do you mean by viable?

[Pumapayam]

Not mentioned, but the doldrum between uptown and westchase along Westhiemer and Richmond.

[jdbaker]

What do you mean by viable?

I meant viable as in practicable or workable. Currently, the light rail doesn't really work as car alternative for two reasons. First, it's located too far from the places people live. Second, it doesn't provide easy access to basic life necessities such as grocery stores, retail, etc. It's more a parking garage alternative for those who work or play in areas where parking is expensive (e.g. Downtown, TMC, Reliant).

The reason I believe the University Line will make light rail particularly useful for Museum District residents is that it will offer access to Downtown and the Medical Center via the current line, as well as the West Loop via the new University Line. This would allow anyone living within walking distance of Main and Blodgett to access Downtown, TMC, Montrose, the Galleria, and the Universities, all without transferring trains. At this point you could make it without a car, or at a minimum, a couple could easily survive with just one car.

Edited November 13, 2006 by jdbaker

[musicman]

I meant viable as in practicable or workable. Currently, the light rail doesn't really work as car alternative for two reasons. First, it's located too far from the places people live. Second, it doesn't provide easy access to basic life necessities such as grocery stores, retail, etc. It's more a parking garage alternative for those who work or play in areas where parking is expensive (e.g. Downtown, TMC, Reliant).

The reason I believe the University Line will make light rail particularly useful for Museum District residents is that it will offer access to Downtown and the Medical Center via the current line, as well as the West Loop via the new University Line. This would allow anyone living within walking distance of Main and Blodgett to access Downtown, TMC, Montrose, the Galleria, and the Universities, all without transferring trains. At this point you could make it without a car, or at a minimum, a couple could easily survive with just one car.

just like ANY public transportation, the riders have to live near it. i think public transportation now is viable with just the buses if you live in the right locations. where i live there are 3 nearby grocery stores all served by the same line and also retail nearby plus it goes to the downtown macy's.

your main/blodgett example just enforces what i said about riders living near it. how many actually live there now? vs take the bus there? what percentage of houston's population lives there? VERY small no doubt.

according to metro's own data, the museum district stations aren't being ulitized that much currently. seems the ones that are being utilized, are the ones involving taking people to work during the weekday and or involve bus transfers. i will venture to say that museum area ridership won't really increase that much as the area is wealthy and they own vehicles. METRO's museum numbers are on the same order as reliant's during the week (less traffic). IMO that is horrible based on our excellent museums.

[jdbaker]

just like ANY public transportation, the riders have to live near it. i think public transportation now is viable with just the buses if you live in the right locations. where i live there are 3 nearby grocery stores all served by the same line and also retail nearby plus it goes to the downtown macy's.

your main/blodgett example just enforces what i said about riders living near it. how many actually live there now? vs take the bus there? what percentage of houston's population lives there? VERY small no doubt.

according to metro's own data, the museum district stations aren't being ulitized that much currently. seems the ones that are being utilized, are the ones involving taking people to work during the weekday and or involve bus transfers. i will venture to say that museum area ridership won't really increase that much as the area is wealthy and they own vehicles. METRO's museum numbers are on the same order as reliant's during the week (less traffic). IMO that is horrible based on our excellent museums.

I agree with much of what you've said, however, I wouldn't equate a bus line with light rail. I think there are psychological barriers that prevent people from using buses that do not apply to light rail. Bus lines do not seem inviting to the infrequent rider. Maybe it's because the routes are not physically visible like the rail line, and as a result they seem difficult to navigate. Or, maybe it's a social class/stigma issue that effects buses but not trains/subways. Regardless, I think the rail appeals to the urban professional crowd in a way that the bus does not.

As for the Museum district, I think you've confused my argument. My assertion is that the University line will be good for the Museum District, not that the Museum district will be good for Metro. The Museum District population will continue to grow, but whether or not those who live in the Museum District actually use the light rail has little impact on the perceived value that light rail creates for the neighborhood.

Edited November 13, 2006 by jdbaker

[musicman]

I agree with much of what you've said, however, I wouldn't equate a bus line with light rail. I think there are psychological barriers that prevent people from using buses that do not apply to light rail. Bus lines do not seem inviting to the infrequent rider. Maybe it's because the routes are not physically visible like the rail line, and as a result they seem difficult to navigate. Or, maybe it's a social class/stigma issue that effects buses but not trains/subways. Regardless, I think the rail appeals to the urban professional crowd in a way that the bus does not.

As for the Museum district, I think you've confused my argument. My assertion is that the University line will be good for the Museum District, not that the Museum district will be good for Metro. The Museum District population will continue to grow, but whether or not those who live in the Museum District actually use the light rail has little impact on the perceived value that light rail creates for the neighborhood.

you said "The reason I believe the University Line will make light rail particularly useful for Museum District residents is that it will offer access to Downtown and the Medical Center via the current line, as well as the West Loop via the new University Line. This would allow anyone living within walking distance of Main and Blodgett to access Downtown, TMC, Montrose, the Galleria, and the Universities, all without transferring trains. At this point you could make it without a car, or at a minimum, a couple could easily survive with just one car."intially now you're saying the perceived value is why it's important. So is spending 350million on perceived value worth it?

i do understand your psychological barrier on the bus vs. train issue. we rode the bus/train downtown on friday afternoon/evening to avoid the parking situation. Well on our way back about 10 pm, a homeless person started begging my friend (who was dressed VERY nicely) for money. She kept telling him no. Finally as we were about to board the train, the guy tried to grab her purse. i kicked him and he hit me but luckily nothing happened as he got scared. since they rarely check train passes, the trains are easily accessible to them.

[jdbaker]

you said "The reason I believe the University Line will make light rail particularly useful for Museum District residents is that it will offer access to Downtown and the Medical Center via the current line, as well as the West Loop via the new University Line. This would allow anyone living within walking distance of Main and Blodgett to access Downtown, TMC, Montrose, the Galleria, and the Universities, all without transferring trains. At this point you could make it without a car, or at a minimum, a couple could easily survive with just one car."intially now you're saying the perceived value is why it's important. So is spending 350million on perceived value worth it?

i do understand your psychological barrier on the bus vs. train issue. we rode the bus/train downtown on friday afternoon/evening to avoid the parking situation. Well on our way back about 10 pm, a homeless person started begging my friend (who was dressed VERY nicely) for money. She kept telling him no. Finally as we were about to board the train, the guy tried to grab her purse. i kicked him and he hit me but luckily nothing happened as he got scared. since they rarely check train passes, the trains are easily accessible to them.

Well, that's not the barrier I had in mind, but that is an interesting point as to the ticketing system. I'm glad you escaped unscathed. What stop were you at? I live downtown, but I'm on the north side where things are pretty tame. However, last night while driving down Milam near McKinney I spotted two fairly well dressed, older Hispanic men, one of whom had a knife drawn, fighting a homeless guy. Very strange.

[musicman]

Well, that's not the barrier I had in mind, but that is an interesting point as to the ticketing system. I'm glad you escaped unscathed. What stop were you at? I live downtown, but I'm on the north side where things are pretty tame. However, last night while driving down Milam near McKinney I spotted two fairly well dressed, older Hispanic men, one of whom had a knife drawn, fighting a homeless guy. Very strange.

It happened at the Preston stop friday night about 10. The northside of downtown has soo many homeless now it is ridiculous. I just sent an email to city council on this subject. I know i went last tuesday about 830 or so to drop off some cd's to a friend. i walked about 1.5 blocks and got asked 3 times for money. now they are aggressively pursuing you when you park. All i can say is that they have definitely become more aggressive this yr.

Mayor White's supposed homeless ordinance is a JOKE!

[jdbaker]

It happened at the Preston stop friday night about 10. The northside of downtown has soo many homeless now it is ridiculous. I just sent an email to city council on this subject. I know i went last tuesday about 830 or so to drop off some cd's to a friend. i walked about 1.5 blocks and got asked 3 times for money. now they are aggressively pursuing you when you park. All i can say is that they have definitely become more aggressive this yr.

Mayor White's supposed homeless ordinance is a JOKE!

I lived in DC for three years in a "transitional neighborhood" while going to law school across the street from the largest homeless shelter in the country. As a result I'm not really phased by guys asking for change, but when I hear stories about purse snatching on the train and see Sunday night knife fights it does give me cause for concern. Maybe it's time to get myself fully acclimated with being a Texan and get a concealed weapons permit.

[musicman]

I lived in DC for three years in a "transitional neighborhood" while going to law school across the street from the largest homeless shelter in the country. As a result I'm not really phased by guys asking for change, but when I hear stories about purse snatching on the train and see Sunday night knife fights it does give me cause for concern. Maybe it's time to get myself fully acclimated with being a Texan and get a concealed weapons permit.

what made me mad is that the police are around, many times parked on corners waiting for DWI people, and see the panhandling going on and do nothing. I know two middle aged men who have been assaulted downtown in the last 2 yrs. one on the train and another just walking.

[jdbaker]

what made me mad is that the police are around, many times parked on corners waiting for DWI people, and see the panhandling going on and do nothing. I know two middle aged men who have been assaulted downtown in the last 2 yrs. one on the train and another just walking.

Last summer, my car stalled out due to flooding at Main and Drew. Not exactly an ideal location to leave a vehicle. By the time the tow truck showed up my license plate had been stolen. For whatever reason the tow truck driver wouldn't take my car until a police report had been filed for the stolen plate. I called the police to file a report and they said they would be there soon. Two hours later, and still no police, so this time my wife calls. She tells the dispatcher that her car broke down at Main and Drew, she is alone, and she is terrified, hoping they might actually show up. Another two hours pass and still no police. Eventually the tow truck driver decides to try to hunt down the police. He pulls into the gas station next the greyhound station, and sure enough two of HPD's finest are sitting at a bar stool eating doughnuts. I relatively certain they had been there for the majority of the prior four hours.

[wheels]

do not like the pockets of bad apartment complexes, shady strip centers, and inaccessibility to respectable dining/shopping alternatives.

You asked where the better appreciation would be. Part of getting good appreciation is betting on the come. If you had seen the Rice Military or Midtown areas 10 years ago, you would have run. I remember when you didn't buy in the Heights North of 11th Street. While I was at UH 14 years ago, I lived in a remodeled bungalow in the Camp Logan section of Memorial Park. We rented it for $900 a month because the seller couldn't sell it for $135,000. There are two high $600's townhomes on the same lot now. If you knew what was coming and "bet on the come", you would have done very well. Those three areas had much more downside than the Museum District does today. I remember taking an investor to see a small apartment complex near Baldwin Park nine years ago. He could have purchased two fourplexes for less than $100K a piece and he couldn't see the future. Oh well...

Bet on the Museum District.

[jscarbor]

I find that the museum district is already very high priced.

[jdbaker]

I find that the museum district is already very high priced.

I agree. The good blocks located closer to Hermann Park seem to be pushing $60psf. Getting back to the original topic, I'm not so sure this area really has the best potential for appreciation. It's too close to topping out. With that said, I do think this area has the best chance of developing into a really cool place to live, even if this potential is already heavily factored into asking prices.

For the best change of rapid appreciation in and around downtown, I like the northern portion of the third ward, located just south of the burgeoning warehouse district. It's a little bit scary for my tastes, and I wouldn't want to live there anytime in the next few years, but investment wise it seems like a can't miss at the current $15psf. The area just east of the Sawyer St. Target also has a lot of upside with land still selling for close to $20psf.

[TheNiche]

For the best change of rapid appreciation in and around downtown, I like the northern portion of the third ward, located just south of the burgeoning warehouse district. It's a little bit scary for my tastes, and I wouldn't want to live there anytime in the next few years, but investment wise it seems like a can't miss at the current $15psf. The area just east of the Sawyer St. Target also has a lot of upside with land still selling for close to $20psf.

For the purposes of Bacchus, I doubt that the Third Ward will do the trick. He'd have to live there. But I'd have to agree that it is starting to change rapidly and that there's a lot of upside. There are spots near and along Dowling and between Gray and McGowen that provide spectacular downtown views for three- and four-story townhomes. I got cheated out of buying a lot there a couple years ago...somebody from the estate of the deceased owner forged a signature for a relative and sold it out from under me to someone else.

Anyways, I'm still a proponent of the Museum District. I doubt that Bacchus would necessarily want to live a couple blocks off of Hermann Park...I know that I'd rather be about a few blocks north of Binz, myself. An additional positive aspect to the neighborhood is that if land prices are already that high, it is harder for developers to do anything other than high-density development. That reduces the amount of demolition of existing homes for townhomes and protects much of the character of the neighborhood for a longer period of time.

Edited November 15, 2006 by TheNiche

[Original Timmy Chan's]

Anyways, I'm still a proponent of the Museum District.

I'm a proponent of calling the Museum District what it really is, and that is "THIRD WARD"!

I like to do that just to pi$$ off the folks who are sensitive to that name.

"Third Ward? Oh NO!...I live over in the Museum District!"

[TheNiche]

I'm a proponent of calling the Museum District what it really is, and that is "THIRD WARD"!

I like to do that just to pi$$ off the folks who are sensitive to that name.

"Third Ward? Oh NO!...I live over in the Museum District!"

Though technically and historically accurate, you may as well let it go. State Highway 288 is way too massive of a barrier for it not to be a neighborhood delineation.

Besides, one could just as easily argue that the name 3rd Ward is meaningless and should no longer be used on the grounds that wards don't exist as political entities anymore.

[cooper]

"Third Ward? Oh NO!...I live over in the Museum District!"

I understand and find it somewhat amusing myself, seeing how the naming game has played out.

When I first mentioned to friends that I was looking to sell my still new Pearland home - this is when 518 was still a farm road - and maybe move to a fixer upper in the Third Ward area they thought I was either on the verge of a nervous breakdown or bankruptcy.

For the most part, most never considered that someone would choose to move to what was then still considered the Third Ward.

But the Museum District, well that's different.

The power of a label.