Inside the Loop Housing Stats?

[RedScare]

Ah, but what if you happen to die when the housing market is in a slump? If you'd cashed out at the peak and done nothing more than to keep your money in short-term T-bills, then there'll be more for those that you leave behind. Of course, that's assuming that you care about their financial well-being.

You're kidding, right? I told you I was single. If the market's in a slump, my 6 brothers and sisters get a couple of grand less. Since they all work, they'll probably get along alright. And, where do you think I came up with this idea? My parents and 2 of my siblings have paid for homes. Another is 10 months away. One sister has a pretty large mortgage, but since her husband is vice president of a fairly well known computer company, I'm guessing they do OK.

I can't figure out if you are really that ate up with acquiring money, or if it is an insatiable desire to always have the last word, but your financial advice sucks. Keep in mind that their are two models of retirement planning. One (the one the financial planners push) is how much money you have to have to continue as a materialistic over-consumer. The other is how little you really need if you pay off your mortgage and don't buy things you don't need. I chose the second one, and what I found out is that I didn't have to wait until my 60s to cut back on working. All it takes is a belief that there is more to life than how much stuff I own.

[Gary]

You're kidding, right? I told you I was single. If the market's in a slump, my 6 brothers and sisters get a couple of grand less. Since they all work, they'll probably get along alright. And, where do you think I came up with this idea? My parents and 2 of my siblings have paid for homes. Another is 10 months away. One sister has a pretty large mortgage, but since her husband is vice president of a fairly well known computer company, I'm guessing they do OK.

I can't figure out if you are really that ate up with acquiring money, or if it is an insatiable desire to always have the last word, but your financial advice sucks. Keep in mind that their are two models of retirement planning. One (the one the financial planners push) is how much money you have to have to continue as a materialistic over-consumer. The other is how little you really need if you pay off your mortgage and don't buy things you don't need. I chose the second one, and what I found out is that I didn't have to wait until my 60s to cut back on working. All it takes is a belief that there is more to life than how much stuff I own.

Good post.

[TheNiche]

You're kidding, right? I told you I was single. If the market's in a slump, my 6 brothers and sisters get a couple of grand less. Since they all work, they'll probably get along alright. And, where do you think I came up with this idea? My parents and 2 of my siblings have paid for homes. Another is 10 months away. One sister has a pretty large mortgage, but since her husband is vice president of a fairly well known computer company, I'm guessing they do OK.

I can't figure out if you are really that ate up with acquiring money, or if it is an insatiable desire to always have the last word, but your financial advice sucks. Keep in mind that their are two models of retirement planning. One (the one the financial planners push) is how much money you have to have to continue as a materialistic over-consumer. The other is how little you really need if you pay off your mortgage and don't buy things you don't need. I chose the second one, and what I found out is that I didn't have to wait until my 60s to cut back on working. All it takes is a belief that there is more to life than how much stuff I own.

Well, like I said, that's assuming that you care about their financial well-being. I didn't say that not caring was a bad thing. I for one would ideally like nothing more than to die with not a dollar to my name, having practiced sound financial management so as to have maximized my potential consumption right up until the day that I die. Of course, realistically, I'll have to build in enough savings to act as a financial cushion in order to compensate for various potential risks.

I'm less "ate up" about money than I am about basically playing a game. Money-making and financial optimization is entertainment. And at the end of the day, I'll be able to intentionally do some really petty and foolish things, like build myself a really really nice architecturally-compelling home. You know...phallic symbols and the like.

[dalparadise]

I dig Red's take. There's a certain satisfaction in going "off the grid" as you get up in years. Younger people still like to see how much wealth they can build...or at least how many things they can get without putting themselves in a bad financial situation.

I'd expect the best way to go for those under 40 is somewhere in the middle -- moderating both sides of the equation to balance your financial wants with your future plans. After 40, it's a good idea to start simplifying and reducing financial obligations.

Good post.

You really should get a room...and you should pay for it.

[mpbro]

I think Downtown sales are in for some hard times. The lease market might be really good for landlords over the next few years, though.

I also think townhouse-heavy neighborhoods like The West End, Midtown and Rice Military are due for a big correction pretty soon. I don't think current owners are going to like it, either. there are, of course some exceptions, like the area south of 59, near the Museum District.

Places with bungalows and smaller houses, like The Heights, Montrose, Timbergrove and such will probably continue to grow at a huge rate. I'm not sure we've even come close to testing the top of that market. Sunset Heights, on one end and Shady Acres on the other seem bitten by the delusion that they can pull values like their nextdoor neighbors. I think they will find out soon that they can't. Then, maybe in the next 10 years or so, they will and people who gambled here will look like geniuses.

Transitional neghborhoods like the East End and points south from there will need to keep an eye on retail infrastructure. If they get good quality grocery, restaurant and store options opening in their neighborhoods, the prices will go boom! If not, they'll see a spike as new town houses come in and then a correction in a few years. How you play that could make a real difference in how you view this situation.

Large home neighborhoods like Southside Place, River Oaks, West U, Southampton, etc. will probably continue modestly appreciating in built-out areas and be going crazy in tear-down ones. These regions have proven virtually recession-proof and determined to make sure you can't afford them.

Throughout the Southeast side, there will be pockets of speculation, but values should remain largely flat after having enjoyed a few years of good growth. These seem to be solid, conservative investments.

Northeast and and around the Harrisburg area are mostly absentee landlord neighborhoods, where the property is worth more than the houses can bring in rent. This keeps new buyers out, because when financed, the houses won't cash-flow. If you own some outright, it's fine. Otherwise, it's a money-loser. Thus, values stay pretty flat.

A real bright spot is the Southwest area around Stella Link and Braeswood, west of Main. There's lots of new mixed with re-hab and old, well-kept homes. Values are climbing and neighborhoods are growing.

In general, the highrise market is pretty flat. Previously untouchable buildings like Randall Davis' stuff or Bayou Bend Towers, or the few fairly exclusive buildings around the park are beginning to dip into Joe Anyman's price range. the problem is that their maintenance fees are still high, so it keeps them out of reach. It's a resale problem for current owners who end up seeing a larger percentage of their payment not translate into equity, too.

Great post.

Have you heard anything about the decision on where to put metrorail? Richmond or Westpark? If Richmond, then that corridor between Montrose and Shepherd seems ripe for an explosion. You're within spitting distance of old money (North/South Blvd.). Some of that area is even zoned to Poe Elementary.

I was absent from Houston from 1997 to 2004, but when I left in '97, the Montrose bungalows were very hot, but they seem a bit depressed now. Is that true? If so, is it due to consumer distaste with 1000 sqft homes?

I'm surprised that Braeswood is doing so well. How much of it flooded in 2001? The fantastic new construction seems to have 5 ft+ of crawl space!

Southgate and Morningside Place have seen significant tear-down activity in the last couple years. Spec builds on small interior lots, with at least 3 very large customs in progress on larger corner lots in Southgate proper. All the customs were on Southgate Blvd.

[Gary]

You really should get a room...and you should pay for it.

What's your point?

[dalparadise]

What's your point?

My point is that your man-crush with Redscare is starting to get a little weird.