livincinco Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Interesting analysis of 30 years of data on light rail systems built in the 1980's. http://www.theatlanticcities.com/commute/2014/04/have-us-light-rail-systems-been-worth-investment/8838/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ricco67 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 What it doesn't take into account is the population. If your population doesn't increase, then the number of riders doesn't either. In one case, Buffalo, they had a population decrease as well as availability of jobs.If the researcher included population and job numbers, this would be more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Vik Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Each region also built free highways during the period (I-990 in Buffalo, I-205 in Portland, US 50 in Sacramento, CA 54 in San Diego, and CA 237 in San Jose), and each continued to sprawl (including Portland, despite its urban growth boundary). These conflicting policies had as much to do with light rail's mediocre outcomes as the trains themselves — if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
livincinco Posted April 10, 2014 Author Share Posted April 10, 2014 What it doesn't take into account is the population.If your population doesn't increase, then the number of riders doesn't either.In one case, Buffalo, they had a population decrease as well as availability of jobs.If the researcher included population and job numbers, this would be more accurate. Agreed on Buffalo, but population increased significantly in the other four cities referenced. Each region also built free highways during the period (I-990 in Buffalo, I-205 in Portland, US 50 in Sacramento, CA 54 in San Diego, and CA 237 in San Jose), and each continued to sprawl (including Portland, despite its urban growth boundary). These conflicting policies had as much to do with light rail's mediocre outcomes as the trains themselves — if not more. Agreed. When given the choice, consumers opted to drive instead of ride mass transit. That has been clear and consistent across the US except in cases where driving becomes so onerous that mass transit becomes attractive by comparison. It's also clear that light rail didn't actively influence urbanization. All cities continued to sprawl since there wasn't active government intervention to drive urbanization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houston19514 Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 What it doesn't take into account is the population. If your population doesn't increase, then the number of riders doesn't either. In one case, Buffalo, they had a population decrease as well as availability of jobs.If the researcher included population and job numbers, this would be more accurate.The article speaks of percentage of commuters using transit, so the population increase/decrease or increase/decrease in number of jobs is not very important information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
totheskies Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Interesting article, and I sincerely hope that these same studies are revisited in 2020. Just now, as millennials start claiming a larger share of the workforce and baby boomers begin to retire, I believe we're seeing a true paradigm shift in how we conceptualize mobility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
livincinco Posted April 10, 2014 Author Share Posted April 10, 2014 Interesting article, and I sincerely hope that these same studies are revisited in 2020. Just now, as millennials start claiming a larger share of the workforce and baby boomers begin to retire, I believe we're seeing a true paradigm shift in how we conceptualize mobility. There is a definite possibility, but I'm not convinced that we're truly seeing a paradigm shift. There's no question that demographically there is a larger percentage of the US population in the 18-37 age bracket than there has been historically.and that birth rates and marriages are happening later. In my opinion, a lot of the "paradigm" shift is a direct result of those demographics. There's a lot more young, single, childless people around and they are following the same patterns that young, single, childless people have followed historically. I also tend to think that longer projected lifespans for this generation have a lot to do with the deferring children/marriage. The biological constraints of child birth/raising have changed considerably in the last 50 years. The big question is whether this generation will follow historical patterns in terms of "settling down" in the future or whether there will be a significantly higher percentage that continues to stay in an urban lifestyle and, in my opinion, that is very much an open question. In short, I agree with you that mobility is changing, but I'm not so sure that we agree on how it is changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Vik Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Agreed on Buffalo, but population increased significantly in the other four cities referenced.Agreed. When given the choice, consumers opted to drive instead of ride mass transit. That has been clear and consistent across the US except in cases where driving becomes so onerous that mass transit becomes attractive by comparison. It's also clear that light rail didn't actively influence urbanization. All cities continued to sprawl since there wasn't active government intervention to drive urbanization.Building freeways is government intervention to drive suburbanization. There is a definite possibility, but I'm not convinced that we're truly seeing a paradigm shift. There's no question that demographically there is a larger percentage of the US population in the 18-37 age bracket than there has been historically.and that birth rates and marriages are happening later. In my opinion, a lot of the "paradigm" shift is a direct result of those demographics. There's a lot more young, single, childless people around and they are following the same patterns that young, single, childless people have followed historically. I also tend to think that longer projected lifespans for this generation have a lot to do with the deferring children/marriage. The biological constraints of child birth/raising have changed considerably in the last 50 years.The big question is whether this generation will follow historical patterns in terms of "settling down" in the future or whether there will be a significantly higher percentage that continues to stay in an urban lifestyle and, in my opinion, that is very much an open question.In short, I agree with you that mobility is changing, but I'm not so sure that we agree on how it is changing.Not really an open question. It's a definite shift and driver license statistics is one blatant example of evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
livincinco Posted April 10, 2014 Author Share Posted April 10, 2014 Building freeways is government intervention to drive suburbanization.Not really an open question. It's a definite shift and driver license statistics is one blatant example of evidence. The building freeways conversation is so tiresome and has been rehashed so many times that I really have no interest in going there again. Your point is completely irrelevant to mine but I'm glad to hear that the future is pre-determined because you said so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Light rail is great for a short length with many destinations along the line. It has diminishing returns though when you try to make an entire system out of it over larger distances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Vik Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 The building freeways conversation is so tiresome and has been rehashed so many times that I really have no interest in going there again.Your point is completely irrelevant to mine but I'm glad to hear that the future is pre-determined because you said so.Good way to deflect the argument.Light rail is great for a short length with many destinations along the line. It has diminishing returns though when you try to make an entire system out of it over larger distances.Depends if it has right of way and is grade separated it can go as fast as heavy rail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Depends if it has right of way and is grade separated it can go as fast as heavy rail Not only does it have to be grade separated, but the tracks also have to be configured in a way which allows for high speeds. If you're going to do all of that, might as well go for heavy rail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTiger Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Good way to deflect the argument. mfastx, on 10 Apr 2014 - 1:11 PM, said: Light rail is great for a short length with many destinations along the line. It has diminishing returns though when you try to make an entire system out of it over larger distances. Depends if it has right of way and is grade separated it can go as fast as heavy rail Well, if a light rail has a long, flat stretch of track where it only stops for stations (say, built on an old railroad ROW) then it could go fairly fast. It's slower if it stops for intersections (common in Houston) and makes hard, sharp turns (Main and Boundary, for instance). Going up inclines (exiting tunnels or climbing viaducts) will slow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nativehoustonion Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Went to Earth Day at Discovery Green and METRO has a tent there. I was told they have a plan to build the University Line. She also said the other two lines should be operational in August. She said the rails cars are delayed. They making them in in Albany, NY and flew up there to get a update on the rail cars. I think they have Earth Day tomorrow also. I would stop by there a lot of information there. Lost of frebbies and they have food trucks there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nativehoustonion Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Sorry only today till 5. They should have Earth Days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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