A Lost Decade?

[TheNiche]

But it's not an issue of credit being readily avaialable, rather jobs and job creation.

I would call the outlook bleak:

http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm#occupation_d

Look at the table for occupations with the largest numerical growth, and how the majority of those jobs are low-skilled, low wage.

For those able to get a higher skill/wage job, the increased cost of higher education creates a signifiant debt burden--which is also a significant impediment to re-training that I rarely hear people discuss. For a former union manufacturing worker to get a new skilled job at a middle class wage, he or she has to go back to school at significant cost, not only the cost of school but possilble opportunity cost of lost wages (albeit low) that could be had. A country full of home health care aides and cafeteria workers cannot sustain the consumer driven economy of the past 20 years, regardless of whether banks make easy credit available again to the higher income brackets. The middle class is not just getting squeezed, it's getting squeeezed out of existence.

And for the young'ns reading this thread contemplating a career in health care, bear in mind that the baby boomers will die off within the next 30 years and health care will go bust just as you're making the final push toward your own retirement. Save wisely.

[crunchtastic]

And for the young'ns reading this thread contemplating a career in health care, bear in mind that the baby boomers will die off within the next 30 years and health care will go bust just as you're making the final push toward your own retirement. Save wisely.

Referencing a much earlier post.... we paid full pop for the Remington 870 instead of a knockoff. I wanted the pistol grip. Plus it came with a cool breach tool on the end. As the old timers say....you could put an out with that, to say the least.

[ricco67]

I'm just thrilled back I cashed out in 2000 and my procrastination worked in my favor...for once.

Quite frankly, I think the unions NEED to go. They have pushed the unit prices for various products to the point where it wasn't that profitable to sell it to the local consumers. I've been harping on that since the early 2000's.

[TheNiche]

Referencing a much earlier post.... we paid full pop for the Remington 870 instead of a knockoff. I wanted the pistol grip. Plus it came with a cool breach tool on the end. As the old timers say....you could put an out with that, to say the least.

The patent on this particular shotgun is long expired, so the clones of the 870 will accept the same aftermarket parts and accessories. For myself, I plan on eventually installing a +1 tube extension, the pistol grip like you've got, and a bayonet lug. I'm a big fan of wielding some cutlery at the end of something so cumbersome to reload.

[N Judah]

But it's not an issue of credit being readily avaialable, rather jobs and job creation.

I would call the outlook bleak:

http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm#occupation_d

Look at the table for occupations with the largest numerical growth, and how the majority of those jobs are low-skilled, low wage.

For those able to get a higher skill/wage job, the increased cost of higher education creates a signifiant debt burden--which is also a significant impediment to re-training that I rarely hear people discuss. For a former union manufacturing worker to get a new skilled job at a middle class wage, he or she has to go back to school at significant cost, not only the cost of school but possilble opportunity cost of lost wages (albeit low) that could be had. A country full of home health care aides and cafeteria workers cannot sustain the consumer driven economy of the past 20 years, regardless of whether banks make easy credit available again to the higher income brackets. The middle class is not just getting squeezed, it's getting squeeezed out of existence.

I think that once credit gets flowing we will see more jobs. And not only that, once the currency undergoes massive devaluation, there will be a resurgence in manufacturing.

[TheNiche]

I think that once credit gets flowing we will see more jobs. And not only that, once the currency undergoes massive devaluation, there will be a resurgence in manufacturing.

Most of the other major currencies are also under stress, so exchange rates between the U.S. and its major trading partners may not follow that pattern.

[N Judah]

Well, I hope we follow that pattern, because I think otherwise crunchtastic's bleak forecast will come to pass.

[BryanS]

While the lesson in comparative advantage is nice, I am wondering why we have to tear down perfectly usable 1800 sf homes and replace them with grass huts. Wouldn't the more intelligent victim of an imploded economy simply live in the house until it crumbled to the ground 40, 60 or even 100 years later?

There will be no need to tear down any homes. But when your salary is reduced to $5/day... You'll be thrown out of your house. Because you can't make the mortgage payments anymore. Suddenly, sleeping just one or two nights in this:

...seems like an OK idea. For the interim. "It's only temporary" ... "I'll get back on my feet, soon" you tell yourself. And then finally, you begin collecting little bits of cardboard and other dumpster refuse, park the Gran Fury in a field... begin "adding on" to it... and just kinda live there... In the field next to your old neighborhood.

[TheNiche]

There will be no need to tear down any homes. But when your salary is reduced to $5/day... You'll be thrown out of your house. Because you can't make the mortgage payments anymore. Suddenly, sleeping just one or two nights in this:

...seems like an OK idea. For the interim. "It's only temporary" ... "I'll get back on my feet, soon" you tell yourself. And then finally, you begin collecting little bits of cardboard and other dumpster refuse, park the Gran Fury in a field... begin "adding on" to it... and just kinda live there... In the field next to your old neighborhood.

So, I guess you must be one of those landlords that refuses to drop the rent under any circumstances, even if it means enduring long periods of vacancy. Because that's the only way that your scenario makes sense is if most landlords are so irrational.

[RedScare]

He's also ignoring the fact that once so many homes become vacant...especially if they are bank repo's who do not check on them...people will simply start squatting in them. This is already happening in this recession. Of course it would happen on a much larger scale if Judah's prediction came true.

Of course, there is also the large number of people who owe no mortgage who would stay in their homes, as well. The fact is, the only reason people live in grass huts is when that is all there is. That is not the case here. There are more homes now than families to live in them.

[TheNiche]

The fact is, the only reason people live in grass huts is when that is all there is. That is not the case here. There are more homes now than families to live in them.

Well put.

[BryanS]

So, I guess you must be one of those landlords that refuses to drop the rent under any circumstances, even if it means enduring long periods of vacancy. Because that's the only way that your scenario makes sense is if most landlords are so irrational.

What landlords? Most landlords I know have mortgages, or other leverage, against their properties. You can only lower rents so much before even most landlords go bankrupt... out of business.

Everybody moves down a notch.

The poor, remain poor.

The middle class move into tent/tepee/grass hut/gran fury housing accommodations.

The rich move into once middle-class 3-2-2 homes.

And then abandoned River Oaks homes become infested with animals and fall into disrepair as no one can afford them.

[TheNiche]

What landlords? Most landlords I know have mortgages, or other leverage, against their properties. You can only lower rents so much before even most landlords go bankrupt... out of business.

Everybody moves down a notch.

The poor, remain poor.

The middle class move into tent/tepee/grass hut/gran fury housing accommodations.

The rich move into once middle-class 3-2-2 homes.

And then abandoned River Oaks homes become infested with animals and fall into disrepair as no one can afford them.

Oh, of course. Because when a landlord goes bankrupt or gets foreclosed on and the appropriate documents are filed at the courthouse, the properties that they formerly owned go *poof* and all that's left are smoking craters. How silly of me to forget something so obvious, the evidence of which can be witnessed in so many decimated neighborhoods. Perhaps you could refresh my memory as to how natural law is so dramatically affected by such particular transfers of title. Was that a subset of string theory?

[RedScare]

Detroit has been experiencing a less dramatic and less widespread version of this collapse for decades. Despite the exodus of 1 million residents and the collapse of its housing financing, the homes remain in various levels of disrepair. While many remain vacant, due to the loss of half of its population, others have been taken over by squatters. It is human nature. When shelter is needed, humans look for the easiest way to shelter themselves. Breaking a lock is far easier than building a grass hut on trespassed land. As the problem grows, the number of vacant homes exceeds the ability of absentee landlords and law enforcement to kick out the squatters.

River Oaks will be the last neighborhood to fall, as the residents have more cushion than apycheck to paycheck middle class and below.

[crunchtastic]

Detroit has been experiencing a less dramatic and less widespread version of this collapse for decades. Despite the exodus of 1 million residents and the collapse of its housing financing, the homes remain in various levels of disrepair. While many remain vacant, due to the loss of half of its population, others have been taken over by squatters. It is human nature. When shelter is needed, humans look for the easiest way to shelter themselves. Breaking a lock is far easier than building a grass hut on trespassed land. As the problem grows, the number of vacant homes exceeds the ability of absentee landlords and law enforcement to kick out the squatters.

River Oaks will be the last neighborhood to fall, as the residents have more cushion than apycheck to paycheck middle class and below.

There have already been reports in the media (I seem to recall Detroit and Florida) where sheriffs are refusing to evict.

And when things get that bad--the sheriffs will be squatting too. Of course landlords and banks could start hiring private law

enforcement. Imagine, that useless little man in the River Oaks patrol car will be replaced by Blackwater dudes in a humvee. As for the houses no one can afford to live in, at that point, you won't have a lot of demand for the assets unless you count

people tearing down wood frame structures for the firewood and other useful salvage. Plus, the now empty lot can be used as urban farmland. Talk about re-imagining the urban environment! Everything we need to know has already been covered in dystopian sci-fi.

[ricco67]

Isn't Detroit (or some other Michigan city) also thinking about shrinking their city limits in an attempt to concentrate their resources to the city core as opposed to empty subdivisions.

Now the question is, would all that land revert to the County and they would have to deal with that headache?

[barracuda]

Isn't Detroit (or some other Michigan city) also thinking about shrinking their city limits in an attempt to concentrate their resources to the city core as opposed to empty subdivisions.

Now the question is, would all that land revert to the County and they would have to deal with that headache?

One of the plans for Detroit involves large-scale for-profit farming.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/29/news/economy/farming_detroit.fortune/?section=magazines_fortune

[crunchtastic]

Isn't Detroit (or some other Michigan city) also thinking about shrinking their city limits in an attempt to concentrate their resources to the city core as opposed to empty subdivisions.

Now the question is, would all that land revert to the County and they would have to deal with that headache?

Interesting proposition. When you no longer have a tax base........

After Katrina, this same idea was briefly on the table for New Orleans East and the lower ninth ward. Naomi Klein's book Disaster Capitlaism contians interesting discussion of these scenarios (but from an obviously biased, anti-Chicago School viewpoint).

To veer back on topic, all the old industiral cities likes Detroit are, to some degree, a blank slate. It's kind of cool

to contemplate. How to retrofit the infrastructure to support new types of industrial or manufacturing jobs. If I were a young artist-type, I would love to be in Detroit now. I can imagine it becoming quite experimental.

[Subdude]

From Calculated Risk: