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How did your 2009 predictions turn out?


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A year ago I asked HAIFers to make five predictions about 2009 in this thread: http://www.houstonarchitecture.com/haif/index.php?showtopic=18664

Here were my predictions:

  1. There will be signs of an economic recovery by October, 2009.
  2. There will be no new skyscrapers announced for Houston in 2009.
  3. Barack Obama's first year in office will bring very little of the Change™ expected. It will be much like any other administration.
  4. There will be no terrorist attack in the continental United States.
  5. There will be a terrorist attack in Europe.

My results:

  1. Marginal win
  2. Win (unless I missed something -- quite likely since I've been out of action for a couple of months)
  3. Win
  4. Win
  5. Fail

Do not make 2010 predictions in this thread. Do that in this new thread: Your predictions for 2010

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Check out 20thStreetDad's predictions:

1. There will be an assassination attempt on our president, by an american.

2. Chrysler will bomb completely and be bought out by a foreign company.

3. The Yankees will win the world series.

4. The DJIA will be back above 10000 by September

5. Comcast will raise prices

  1. Fail
  2. Win
  3. Win
  4. Win
  5. Win

That's pretty good!

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Wasn't there a skinhead plot to kill the president? Also, #5 was a gimme...Comcast can always be relied on to raise prices and lower service.

You know, that does sound familiar. But I don't think a plot counts an an attempt. I think someone has to actually lunge, or fire, or be within harming distance. I don't think collecting guns and talking smack on the internet quite counts.

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There were my 2009 predictions:

1.) The United States will officially enter into its lost decade, just like Japan.

WIN.

2.) Come hell or high water, GM, Ford, and Chrysler will all remain in business, with substantial government backing.

WIN. They're all still in business. They went into Chapter 11, not 7.

3.) The DOW will make another dip down, below 8000, before June. It will not close above 10,000 at any point during the year.

Almost WIN. 8000 check. We've been closing just a hair over 10K this year.

4.) Gay marriage will be legal, in New Jersey, by legislative action.

Probably not. Damn the spineless to hell. BUT ... it became legal in all kinds of states I wasn't expecting - including Wash, DC.

5.) At some point, oil will touch $25/barrel. Gas will flirt with $1.00/gallon.

I wish.

6.) The dollar will crash.

FAIL. For some reason, the dollar is strengthening - for no reason. Interest rates are near 0 and the Fed can't print money fast enough. Clearly, lemmings are flocking to the dollar.

7.) People will die in a major airline accident.

"WIN?" AF 447. Don't fly on Airbus aircraft.

8.) Obama will not catch Osama, despite extra attention to Afghanistan.

WIN. What a fool Obama is.

9.) Select, inflated inner loop property values will plummet.

Not yet. But its coming.

10.) Interest in the Green Party will surge to historic levels.

WIN.

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