China's economy

[livincinco]

If China ever did want to take out Taiwan... we'd sell Taiwan up the river so fast it wouldn't be funny.

Isn't it amazing how much of our American way of life... is built upon the Communist Chinese? Their country, their legal system, their human rights and environmentalist values. We just keep buying more, more, more...

They will take over, ahead of western economies, because they are making the "cheap stuff" - for all those economies. A lot of cheap stuff, adds up.

I doubt that we'll have to. Most Taiwanese still think of themselves as Chinese. I wouldn't be surprised if a Hong Kong type solution isn't worked out sometime in the next couple of decades.

I've spent a lot of time in China and I agree with you completely. Your average twenty something person who lives in a major city in China is not communist at all. It's been 19 years since Tiananmen Square and there is a whole generation of people there that have grown up in modern China. The gap between them and us is not that big.

[ricco67]

The question is how much will the economy grow given the current political system that is there?

People have a tendency to forget that it IS a communist country and that you have to jump through some hoops to open a good sized business there.

Sure, the Government has been a bit lax on thing as of late, but if they see their power being threatened, it should make for some exciting times there.

Another thing that bears mentioning, with the increase in fuel, one of the positive things about it is that jobs are coming back home. An example of this is a cargo container from China to the East coast USED to be about $1k and it was (as of 3 weeks ago) $6k.

As fuel costs increase, I think china might be losing more business.

Of course, I go out of my way to buy non-Chinese made things anyway.

[houstonmacbro]

The question is how much will the economy grow given the current political system that is there?

People have a tendency to forget that it IS a communist country and that you have to jump through some hoops to open a good sized business there.

Sure, the Government has been a bit lax on thing as of late, but if they see their power being threatened, it should make for some exciting times there.

Another thing that bears mentioning, with the increase in fuel, one of the positive things about it is that jobs are coming back home. An example of this is a cargo container from China to the East coast USED to be about $1k and it was (as of 3 weeks ago) $6k.

As fuel costs increase, I think china might be losing more business.

Of course, I go out of my way to buy non-Chinese made things anyway.

But isn't the government really just people? Won't it eventually change to reflect the wants and desires of the people?

[ricco67]

But isn't the government really just people? Won't it eventually change to reflect the wants and desires of the people?

"Tiananmen Square" Remember that? People were crying that they wanted democracy and from what I can recall, that didn't work out too well.

The Olympics are a good example.

Do you think you can get away with shutting down 300 factories to clear up smog for a few weeks here in the states??

Edit: oops

[TexasVines]

"Tiananmen Square" Remember that? People were crying that they wanted democracy and from what I can recall, that didn't work out too well.

The Olympics are a good example.

Do you think you can get away with shutting down 300 factories to clear up smog for a few weeks here in the states??

Edit: oops

that or just sending thousands of people into the sea to clean up the green slime that is moving in

[livincinco]

The question is how much will the economy grow given the current political system that is there?

People have a tendency to forget that it IS a communist country and that you have to jump through some hoops to open a good sized business there.

Sure, the Government has been a bit lax on thing as of late, but if they see their power being threatened, it should make for some exciting times there.

Another thing that bears mentioning, with the increase in fuel, one of the positive things about it is that jobs are coming back home. An example of this is a cargo container from China to the East coast USED to be about $1k and it was (as of 3 weeks ago) $6k.

As fuel costs increase, I think china might be losing more business.

Of course, I go out of my way to buy non-Chinese made things anyway.

China is really a capitalistic oligarchy. Besides communism is an economic system, not a political system.

The reason that some manufacturing is coming back to the US has more to do with currency than fuel. The value of the RMB against the dollar has dropped by 10% in the last year. The Chinese government also eliminated some export incentives that it provided to manufacturers.

BTW, there's a four night program on Discovery Channel starting tonight called "The People's Republic of Capitalism" with Ted Koppel.

http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/koppe...highlights.html

[BryanS]

I doubt that we'll have to. Most Taiwanese still think of themselves as Chinese. I wouldn't be surprised if a Hong Kong type solution isn't worked out sometime in the next couple of decades.

I've spent a lot of time in China and I agree with you completely. Your average twenty something person who lives in a major city in China is not communist at all. It's been 19 years since Tiananmen Square and there is a whole generation of people there that have grown up in modern China. The gap between them and us is not that big.

Is huge. What do you think would happen... if all those average twenty somethings decided to mark the 20th anniversary of Tiananmen next year, in an effort "change the government," on the same scale and level of protest as the original protest almost two decades ago? Do you honestly think the Chinese govt would say "Hey, let's try the Hong Kong approach this time." They'd probably be shot, killed, and run over with tanks. We haven't done that in this country, in a long, long time.

[TheNiche]

The question is how much will the economy grow given the current political system that is there?

For the time being (i.e. as long as economic growth is sustained), the regime is stable. If there is a coup of some sort, it definitely won't be regressive; it may even be pretty bloodless, negotiated. More likely is that it would lead to greater economic liberalization and transparency, and property rights wouldn't likely be violated in any aggregious way because they'd know that it would only cause foreign stakeholders to become skittish. Besides that, even if the Chinese people don't much like us on a personal level, they do admire us in a lot of ways and are very willing to emulate our best practices.

People have a tendency to forget that it IS a communist country and that you have to jump through some hoops to open a good sized business there.

Or just bribe the officials. That's what Chinese entrepreneurs do all the time. Foreign firms engage in some bribery (it is usually built into business pro formas) but are much more on the radar.

Another thing that bears mentioning, with the increase in fuel, one of the positive things about it is that jobs are coming back home. An example of this is a cargo container from China to the East coast USED to be about $1k and it was (as of 3 weeks ago) $6k.

As fuel costs increase, I think china might be losing more business.

Of course, I go out of my way to buy non-Chinese made things anyway.

Transportation costs are part of the equation, but the much larger part is the value of the dollar. American goods, services, and labor appear less expensive to foreigners right now.

EDIT: livinceo beat me to it.

[BryanS]

China is really a capitalistic oligarchy. Besides communism is an economic system, not a political system.

The reason that some manufacturing is coming back to the US has more to do with currency than fuel. The value of the RMB against the dollar has dropped by 10% in the last year. The Chinese government also eliminated some export incentives that it provided to manufacturers.

BTW, there's a four night program on Discovery Channel starting tonight called "The People's Republic of Capitalism" with Ted Koppel.

http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/koppe...highlights.html

So the govt-controlled censorship of free speech, and web browsing, is an economic priority? Running over people with tanks... part of an economic system?

Depending on the item, I would pay 10 to 50% more for those items if I knew they were made ANYWHERE else, other than by the Communist Chinese.

[TheNiche]

So the govt-controlled censorship of free speech, and web browsing, is an economic priority? Running over people with tanks... part of an economic system?

If you want to learn what communism is about, read Marx. If you want to learn what government (of any form) is about, read Machiavelli.

[BryanS]

If you want to learn what communism is about, read Marx. If you want to learn what government (of any form) is about, read Machiavelli.

Yea, yea... "Read a book"...

The PRC is governed by the Communist Party of China (CPC), a government that has no meaningful or significant opposition in that country, that views Taiwan as a rouge state, and is viewed, by many, to have one of the least free presses in the world. Their constitution "guarantees" the freedom of speech, press, right to fair trail, and freedom of religion... but also guarantees power to the CPC. For some reason... the CPC seems to always come out on top. Whether they are censoring free speech or maintaining order, by way of violent oppressive means. Not a place I would want to live.

The youth of the country, are probably "like us," but I would say they may be more like those protesters 20 years ago, who wanted a democratic form of government. The party that put down that resistance 20 years ago is the same party that is power today.

And we just sell out to them, year after year, after year...

[RedScare]

I'm with livincinco and Niche on this one. The name of the party does not dictate the economic or political system in place. The US does not revert between a democracy and a republic depending on which party is in power.

[BryanS]

I'm with livincinco and Niche on this one. The name of the party does not dictate the economic or political system in place. The US does not revert between a democracy and a republic depending on which party is in power.

The political system that is in place in China, whatever its name, is one of an authoritarian, dictatorial regime that has a very bad track record on human rights, among other things. Despite progress, at the end of the day that system of government is firmly in charge, the same government that brought a violent end to "free speech" protests in 1989, that was supposed to have been guaranteed under their Constitution.

Whenever I think I am having a bad day... I just think of this:

...and then there is this and this. (fair warning, these links may be considered graphic by some).

The same party/government that brought an end to demonstrations in 1989 is the same government, today, that is cracking down on "activists," just ahead of the Olympics:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...ml?hpid=topnews

Huang, who had already served a five-year prison term for political material posted on his Web site, had just published an article about China's latest forbidden topic: shoddy construction of school buildings in Sichuan province, where more than 9,000 children were killed when their classrooms collapsed in the May 12 earthquake.

As Huang predicted, when he and two friends walked out of that restaurant in Chengdu on June 10, the police closed in. He is being held in a detention house in the city, the capital of Sichuan province, charged with illegal possession of state secrets, a catchall term often used to stifle dissent

I would say that the name of the party, the Communist Party of China, is pretty much living up to its name, based on what we're seeing, even recently - in terms of human rights, human liberties. I do not see the government of China as "communist in name only" by any means.

[RedScare]

Bryan, I do not disagree with a word you wrote. However, those are not products of communism. They are products of "an authoritarian, dictatorial regime that has a very bad track record on human rights, among other things."

That is all Niche, cinco and I are saying. Communism, like Capitalism, is an economic system. The political system that imposes communism, or capitalism, is responsible for the authoritarian, or dictatorial acts.

[TheNiche]

The political system that is in place in China, whatever its name, is one of an authoritarian, dictatorial regime that has a very bad track record on human rights, among other things. Despite progress, at the end of the day that system of government is firmly in charge, the same government that brought a violent end to "free speech" protests in 1989, that was supposed to have been guaranteed under their Constitution.

Yep, although imprecise, you've fairly summarized the situation...

I would say that the name of the party, the Communist Party of China, is pretty much living up to its name, based on what we're seeing, even recently - in terms of human rights, human liberties. I do not see the government of China as "communist in name only" by any means.

...but your fair summary defeats your own thesis.

Communists set up the very government with the very constitution that they don't actually adhere to or believe in. They said that they stood for one thing, but later demonstrated that they didn't really mean it.

Even the name of their country, the People's Republic of China (PRC), is misleading. There is not really a republic to which the people could take ownership. It is an oligarchy.

And the country is led by the Communist Party of China, which doesn't practice communism. Do you see a pattern?

-------------------

And does reading Bryan's posts sound suspiciously like a Bush administration press release making thinly-veiled diplomatic or military threats to the least favorite government of the month? If I didn't know better, I'd think that it were an ingenious and elaborate joke designed to poke fun at Bush's rhetoric.

[BryanS]

I see where you all are coming from...

Based on recent history over the past many decades (the Soviet Union/Stalin, China, etc)... it sure does seem the communist economic model is vulnerable to the emergence of authoritarian, dictatorial regimes (political systems) that have especially negative consequences pertaining to human rights.

So yes, you can split the two (economic vs. political systems). The underlying economic model of China today, may be more capitalist, in nature, however its politician system exhibits behavior I would traditionally associate with other communist political systems, communist countries, of the authoritarian variety. And until that gets rectified... they always be dirty communists in my mind. That is, human rights, and the political system that protects such rights, trump any economic system.

[BryanS]

And does reading Bryan's posts sound suspiciously like a Bush administration press release making thinly-veiled diplomatic or military threats to the least favorite government of the month? If I didn't know better, I'd think that it were an ingenious and elaborate joke designed to poke fun at Bush's rhetoric.

Nice try. The US government talks tough on China... then turns right around and grants them MFN status. Even Bill Clinton did that. SHAME.

That's one of my points... We say one thing "bad China!" ... but when the heat gets turned up, just a little, we cave. That's why if China ever wanted to take out Taiwan, we'd probably send mainland China weapons to tap down the resistance. We can't really rock the boat too much - our own US economy could crater.

[Deut28Thirteen]

I found an interesting read on American relations with China written in 2007.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/world/2007-11...ch-threat_N.htm

[livincinco]

Nice try. The US government talks tough on China... then turns right around and grants them MFN status. Even Bill Clinton did that. SHAME.

That's one of my points... We say one thing "bad China!" ... but when the heat gets turned up, just a little, we cave. That's why if China ever wanted to take out Taiwan, we'd probably send mainland China weapons to tap down the resistance. We can't really rock the boat too much - our own US economy could crater.

That's exactly the point. The good news is that they are really in the same situation as well which is why they are highly unlikely to ever take out Taiwan militarily.

But back on topic, this thread is (supposedly) about China's economy, not China's government. I think that most of us would agree that China has a market based economy and a totalitarian government. I would argue that the market based economy is going to gradually force increasing openness in their government and that continued engagement and interdependence is good.

[mojeaux131]

One can listen to an interesting debate on this subject here:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.p...toryId=10312271

The Intelligence Squared debates are awesome. You can download edited versions free of charge, or listen to the full debates on the site.