Expo 2020 Houston?

[Alphafordex]

An update on Expo 2020. The official bidding process closed in November of 2011. The candidates for the 2020 Expo are Izmir, Turkey, Ayutthaya, Thailand, Yekaterinburg, Russia, Sao Paulu, Brazil, and Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates. No US city will be considered by the BIE for Expo 2020.

There are several reasons for this. First, I have spent time at the BIE in Paris, and have been told that until we rejoin the BIE, we have NO chance of being considered for an Expo.

Second, one of the major points of qualification that the BIE considers when a city is bidding is their financial assurances. No city in the World is going to get an Expo unless the parent state and nation bond the event. By that I mean the United States government would have to step in and assume final financial responsibility for making an Expo happen. So, if everything starts to come undone, and funding problems develop, which they always do, the US needs to be prepared to fit the bill. And how big is that bill? Well, Expo 2015 in Milan will cost around 6.4 billion US dollars. That's money to build the site and operate it. They expect about 1.1 billion of that to be covered by corporate sponsorship. The rest is covered by the city, state, Italy, and bank loans. The next window for a large Expo to be awarded is 2025. By the time 2025 rolls around I would expect a stunning Expo to cost a US city around 10-12 billion dollars. I looked at Houston's 2012 budget, and it seems that the budget for the City is 3.7 billion dollars in 2012. That includes a 6.2% reduction in City employees from 2011. And, the budget surplus fund is expected to end with a balance of 102 million.

When you look at these numbers you begin to see that any World's Fair effort in the United States MUST have financial backing from the Federal Government. That is unless the citizens of a major city are willing to adopt a 1% or so city tax increase for a few years. And that's a hard sale. It's difficult in part because practically no one thinks World's Fair still exist! And, if you have never been to one it is difficult to comprehend their wonderful complexity and magic.

I have been to the last three global Expos, in Zaragoza, Spain, Shanghai, China, and Yeosu, Korea. You can not replicate the experience of being at a World's Fair online. Not even close! If you believe that, and if the Country believes that, then our slide to global insignificance will be swift. There is nothing like a World's Fair. It is amazing, and I would love to have one here, in the United States. I just caution people to invest as much, if not more effort in Washington, DC, than their own town or State if they want to make this happen. We have to rejoin the BIE, and set aside 10 billion dollars or so if it is going to be real.

[editor]

Sounds like the BIE, like the IOC, is more interested in the money than the mission.

More importantly, the United States doesn't need the BIE's blessing to hold a World's Fair. It didn't for 1964 in New York. The United States is a large enough economy and tourist draw to attract what it needs to put on an event of this scale without some bureaucrat's blessing in Paris.

Remember that a "World's Fair" sounds impressive, but it's not nearly as large as an Olympics, and probably no bigger than two or three Super Bowls, and those are done without any federal support.

[Alphafordex]

The BIE was established because, in the early 20th century, Fairs were popping up all over the place. So many in fact that it was becoming very difficult for the nations of the Worlds to figure out where to attend and where to invest their resources. By becoming a member of the BIE, countries agree to basically only attend BIE sanctioned events. So true, we do not have to be members of the BIE to put on a Worlds Fair. However, and the 1964 example supports this, don't expect many BIE member nations to show up at a non-sactioned World's Fair.

I am not connected to the BIE. However, having been to their offices a few times, they are a very small organization. When the United States left the BIE in 2002, our yearly dues were $25,000. As far as I am aware, they receive no money generated by the operation of an EXPO. And their very modest office in Paris is probably smaller than for house.

I agree that the United States remains a massive economy. However, we must have the desire to have a World's Fair. THAT, is the big question mark. In this age of virtual satisfaction, will Americans put the family on a plane or in the car and GO to the World's Fair? The youth of America must be the ones crying out for mom and dad to take them there. And yet, those kids have no idea what a World's Fair is. So, you have to create an outstanding event, and have a MASSIVE marketing campaign. So, be prepared to spend a lot of money.

To that end, the Olympics are, in some ways a good comparison. They are very expensive to construct. However, part of that is offset by selling broadcast rights and merchandising rights. And this is where things get sticky. A World's Fair has almost no live broadcast appeal for a network. No one in the history of the event has figured out how to make it work. Merchandise also has a far more limited appeal. Take all network broadcasts away from the Olympics...and there will never be another Olympics. The ideal of it is great. But it is the money that makes it happen.

The Superbowl is practically free to host compared to a Worlds Fair. The single venue, a stadium, already exists. Roll in live production trucks, Sat trucks, security, and it's game on. It lasts one day. It makes tons of money in broadcast rights.

When you build a World's Fair, you build a city. A city designed to host the World. It is going to cost billions and billions of dollars. And you have to operate it for six months. I agree with you 1000% that it should be about the mission, not the money. And, if that is the case, nearly all of the money for the Fair must come from the government. Businesses will only invest if you can prove a return on their investment. To guarantee that return you start watering down the mission. Case in point, in Yeosu this year the USA Pavilion is the only one there that sold corporate naming rights for their theatre. That didn't play well with many of the people who visited the Pavilion.

My final comment, is connected to the thought that we don't need the BIE. That is basically saying that we don't need the blessing of the rest of the World. I am as patriotic of an American as you are going to find. But, travel around the World a few times and you will quickly learn that we are not alone. We are one of the greatest and most powerful nations on Earth. However, we can not stand alone. The mindset that we don't need anyone else to play a part in our success is simply wrong. Our global dominance is waining. It is a natural cycle. The time is coming when we have to play with the rest of the World, or be the lonely kid kicking rocks in the corner of the playground.

[Alphafordex]

And just a note about Olympics financing...The British are using 14.5 billion (US) dollars of public money for the 2012 Games. In 2008 the Chinese used over 25 billion (US) dollars of public money to put on their Olympic Games. And in 2004, the Greeks used 11 billion (US) dollars of public money to stage the Olympics. So public money is clearly a very big part of Olympics financing.

If the United States is going to host a World's Fair, which it should, it has to be spectacular! If we don't pull off a landmark Fair, then I fear that the last embers of an American Worlds Fair dream will be lost. And creating that spectacular Fair is going to be expensive. I believe that, in the end, it would be money well spent. But, we won't be able to penny pinch. Given all of the entertainment choices that people have today, it is going to have to be something out of this World.

[lockmat]

I have the same question many have about the olympic venues. I'm checking out this site that reviews past expos and each pavilion is huge. What in the world do they do with them afterwards?

http://www.worldsfairs.com/Worlds_Fairs/Review__2010.html

[Pleak]

They turn them into malls.

http://www.riverwalkmarketplace.com/index.php

[lockmat]

I did read that only a handful in the last one were "permanent." I saw a video on it and it seems like a giant museum with some theme park elements, like shows.

[Alphafordex]

How the Pavilions are handled after the Expo can be very different from event to event. Back in the day, much of the site was torn down after the event. Following the 1893 Expo in Chicago, arguably America's finest, everything was dumped into Lake Michigan. With the exception of the fine arts building that is now the science museum in Chicago.

Typically a few structures were designed to have lasting lives. The trend changed in 2000 in Hannover, Germany. They used existing structures at their massive existing fair grounds, known as Deutsche Messe, for many of the display spaces. Then they set aside an East and West zone for the construction of national pavilions. Most of those pavilions still stand. I was in a few of them in 2008. There are design studios, music studios, advertising agencies, and the former French pavilion is even a BMW dealership now. But the important thing is that they entered into the Fair with a plan to reuse the site and the pavilions. I believe that Hannover remains one of the best preserved sites.

The same thing happened in Zaragoza, Spain in 2008. I believe that they were even reselling the structures before the Expo began. It is also a very well preserved site. China destroyed most of the Expo 2010 site after the Fair. I believe that their national pavilion is now open as a museum.

There are a few things to keep in mind about a World's Fair. These are rather ironic, but true aspects. First, a World's Fair has to be disposable. It can last no longer than six months by the rules of the BIE. And they are not doing that to shut down the magic. The logistics, and costs of dozens of people from each of the more than a hundred countries that have pavilions, traveling to and living in the host country start to add up. So, it's unfair to tell them that you are extending the Fair. The 1939 and 1964 New York Fairs opened for a second season. Both of them lost international pavilions in the second season. And, both of them saw attendance drop in the second year. So, the magic of the Fair is that it is a six month window, a look into another World. Then, it disappears. The lasting good of the Fair may carry on. But, the Fair must go.

I think that one of the finest examples of a World's Fair displaying this lasting good is Expo 74 in Spokane, Washington. It was one of the smallest Fairs in history. However, it transformed Spokane. There is a documentary called Reflections by the River, produced by the public television station there, that highlights the process.

Another important aspect of the World's Fair is that it is not based in practicality. By that I mean that you can't build a building that is destined to be part of an office park, and call it a pavilion. The best, and most memorable pavilions are extreme. Look up Thomas Heatherwick's UK Pavilion for the 2010 Expo. I visited his studio in London when he was working on it. And, believe it or not, the version built was scaled down a bit from his original version. The Seed Cathedral, as it was known, was completely impractical. Yet, it was the most adored and iconic pavilion of the Expo, with the possible exception of the China National Pavilion. The Chinese press wrote that it reflected the UKs new age spirit of innovation and design. It changed the perception of the UK for many of the people who experienced it. But, as a person who walked through it, I can assure you that it would have been impossible to repurpose it. It was just too radical.

The World's Fair is where nations go to show off. You have to be radical and innovative in terms of pavilion design and messaging if you want to stand out. The 2010 Expo was as large as downtown Cincinnati, Ohio. There were more than a hundred very, very cool pavilions there. It takes a lot to get noticed.

[samagon]

They turn them into malls.

http://www.riverwalk...e.com/index.php

not the whole riverwalk, just a portion of it, the institute of Texan culture is also part of the 'legacy' of the 68 hemisfair.

[Pleak]

not the whole riverwalk, just a portion of it, the institute of Texan culture is also part of the 'legacy' of the 68 hemisfair.

Wrong Riverwalk. This is the one in New Orleans. It's just a big cavernous building that was left over from their world fair from the 80's that they turned into a generic mall. Then a big ship ran into in the 90's.