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New Houston Census Estimates: July 2007

Trae

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Trae

Trae

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Houston MSA 2000: 4,715,407 / 2006: 5,539,949 / 2007: 5,660,245

Between 2006-2007, Houston's MSA grew by 120,296 people.

And by counties:

Harris County: 59,949

Austin County: 489

Brazoria County: 9,990

Chambers County: 431

Fort Bend County: 24,340

Galveston County: 4,390

Montgomery County: 19,405

Liberty County: 661

San Jacinto County: 448

Waller County: 841

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TheNiche

TheNiche

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Census Bureau estimates can (not always but sometimes) be understated for urban areas that are experiencing significant growth. Just take their estimates for the COH the last 20 or so years, for example.

I believe that this has been the case.

One would think that the July 2006-2007 rate of population growth (2.17%) would approximate the rate of job growth (4.60%) wouldn't have quite a spread, especially when the net change in unemployed persons only accounted for a 0.75% of employed persons. What it comes down to is that we've had to import labor...and although I'd buy that a disproportionate number of that workforce are going to have a lower household size, and although I'd buy that some amount of that can be explained by people coming out of retirement, I don't buy the huge difference between employment growth and population growth. Intuitively, it just doesn't seem right.

I'm looking very much forward to the 2010 Census.

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Houston19514

Houston19514

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I believe that this has been the case.

One would think that the July 2006-2007 rate of population growth (2.17%) would approximate the rate of job growth (4.60%) wouldn't have quite a spread, especially when the net change in unemployed persons only accounted for a 0.75% of employed persons. What it comes down to is that we've had to import labor...and although I'd buy that a disproportionate number of that workforce are going to have a lower household size, and although I'd buy that some amount of that can be explained by people coming out of retirement, I don't buy the huge difference between employment growth and population growth. Intuitively, it just doesn't seem right.

I'm looking very much forward to the 2010 Census.

Part of that is perhaps due to the departure of many of the Katrina refugees. We might get a more accurate sense of the population growth by looking at 2005-2007 cumulative population growth.

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JasonDFW

JasonDFW

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That's weird, the census bureau released all this info last year and has since (in the just released data) lowered it's estimates for many (all?) of the Houston metro counties for last year. I wonder if that sort of updating is normal... as you usually hear places only fighting the census for updates only when the figures are believed to be too low. If you took last year's figures the growth would have only been in the 90k range, which seems too low of course.

Hmm, I just looked and they did the same thing for DFW. Very weird. They now say 162k growth this last year but if you take last years 2006 estimates the growth would be only 140k.

Anybody know why/how they do this? Should we expect this year's population figures to all be lowered next year?

Here's a sample of the type of change, which seems universal among all counties not just Harris:

2008 estimate of July 1st 2006 population of Harris County = 3,876,306

2007 estimate of July 1st 2006 population of Harris County = 3,886,207

Jason

Edit - Added bold for clarity

Edited by JasonDFW
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Trae

Trae

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Miami's metro lost population this year, and Atlanta's only grew by 40,000 apparently. Houston will pass up Philly though.

And JasonDFW, your Harris County numbers seem to be wrong. Census' own Excel has it had 3.9+ million.

Edited by Trae
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JasonDFW

JasonDFW

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And JasonDFW, your Harris County numbers seem to be wrong. Census' own PDF has it had 3.9+ million.

My data came from the Census. I haven't seen their PDF, but from their Excel spreadsheet I'm going to go out on a limb that you missed the fact that I was referring to the 2006 estimates. If that is true, the unfortunate part is to make that error you'd have to miss the whole point of the post which was that all the 2006 estimates seemed to have change between this year and last year (which couldn't happen to the estimate that didn't exist until this week).

Jason

Edited by JasonDFW
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JasonDFW

JasonDFW

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Posted (edited)
Miami's metro lost population this year, and Atlanta's only grew by 40,000 apparently. Houston did pass up Philly though.

Atlanta grew by 151k. Of course, they seem to have the same effect as the Texas counties had, which was that the population estimates were lowered. So, that growth was only 140k over last year if you use last years estimates.

Are you just repeating the Philly stuff off your site or did you look it up? Philly had been performing very well, for Houston to pass them up would have been insane growth in Houston or a real mess in Philly. EDIT Edit, I wasn't as mixed up as I thought. Philly is about 200k ahead of Houston but Houston is growing far faster.

Jason

Edited by JasonDFW
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Houston19514

Houston19514

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Posted
That's weird, the census bureau released all this info last year and has since (in the just released data) lowered it's estimates for many (all?) of the Houston metro counties for last year. I wonder if that sort of updating is normal... as you usually hear places only fighting the census for updates only when the figures are believed to be too low. If you took last year's figures the growth would have only been in the 90k range, which seems too low of course.

Hmm, I just looked and they did the same thing for DFW. Very weird. They now say 162k growth this last year but if you take last years 2006 estimates the growth would be only 140k.

Anybody know why/how they do this? Should we expect this year's population figures to all be lowered next year?

Here's a sample of the type of change, which seems universal among all counties not just Harris:

2008 estimate of July 1st 2006 population of Harris County = 3,876,306

2007 estimate of July 1st 2006 population of Harris County = 3,886,207

Jason

Edit - Added bold for clarity

I noticed that too. I have no explanation. I wasn't aware that they would revise estimates.

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Houston19514

Houston19514

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Philly isn't going to be its own metro for much longer anyway. They say Philly and NYCs metro is supposed to merge to one by 2010. So Houston is already reserved at the #5 spot in metro.

I am confident Philly will still be its own metro, at least under current definitions. They may be combined into NYC's Combined Area, but that's a whole other topic.

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Houston19514

Houston19514

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Houston is about 200k behind Philly, but could catch them before the 2010 census and possibly break 6million just a bit after that.

Jason

It actually looks like Houston should overtake Philly pretty easily in the 2009 estimates and will probably break 6 million in time for the 2010 census. To get an accurate picture of Houston's current growth, you have to look at 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 growth cumulatively, because of the Katrina refugees inflating the 2005-2006 growth and reducing the the 2006-2007 growth. Those estimates may even be conservative... if anything Houston's growth has probably accelerated. 94,000 new jobs last year; that should like lead to at a population growth more like 200,000.

Edited by Houston19514
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Trae

Trae

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In looking at the Census Bureau website, I find no Mercer County in either the Philadelphia or the NYC metropolitan statistical area.

It's there. I may have it confused with CSA. I'm on a roll in this thread.

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Houston19514

Houston19514

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It's there. I may have it confused with CSA. I'm on a roll in this thread.

I imagine Mercer County is in there somewhere, but it's not in either of those metro areas (Philly or NYC). Presuming you are

talking about Mercer County, NJ, it is actually its own metro area - the Trenton Ewing metro area,with a 2007 estimated population of 367,605. It is party of the NYC-Newark-Bridgeport CSA.

As far as I can tell, it was part of NYC's CMSA (as they were called then) in the 2000 census already.

Edited by Houston19514
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wxman

wxman

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I was reading in the Chronicle today that Houston ranked fourth for population growth, surpassed by the usual suspects such as Atlanta, Phoenix and...Dallas? Dallas actually ranked No. 1. I think that's sad. With the title "Energy Capital of the World," I would have thought Houston would rank above Dallas. They gained ~160,000 and we gained ~120,000 to the entire metro area from July of 06' to July of 07'.

Edited by wxman
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Trae

Trae

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DFW and Houston switch out every year in growth. Last year, it was Houston. Year before that, DFW. The two years before that, Houston, etc.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5651927.html

The Houston metropolitan area ranked fourth in the nation for overall population growth between 2006 and 2007, according to new census data — an increase demographers attributed largely to the region's economy.

The Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown area attracted slightly more than 120,500 new residents from July 2006 through July 2007, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released today for geographic regions known as metropolitan statistical areas.

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area ranked No. 1 in the nation in terms of raw population growth, and Austin-Round Rock and San Antonio also made the top 10. Karl Eschbach, director of the Texas State Data Center in San Antonio, said the job market and economy are driving the state's population growth.

"It's the combination of international and domestic migration that's pushing Texas cities to the top," Eschbach said.

New Orleans showed the first signs of recovery in the population estimates, though Eschbach warned that does not necessarily herald a "rapid recovery." After reporting record-setting population losses after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the New Orleans metropolitan area had an estimated population increase of about 39,885 from summer 2006 through 2007, making it the eighth-fastest-growing in the nation.

2007metro_numerical.png

Edited by Trae
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