houston-development

No, I did in fact see that. Let me make sure I understand fully. Was that your way of saying that the 17,000 number was indeed an exaggeration? I have not in any way disregarded ADS and O'Connor; it seems to be you who is "disregarding" their numbers. Their numbers say 11,500 or now 13,000 "under construction". You have not shown us any of their numbers that say or even imply that we will have 17,000 units delivered this year.

17,000 wasnt an exaggeration nor did i ever imply it was. i was giving you the benefit of the doubt and was using YOUR 11k and change as an example. im not disregarding anything, im posting information that backs up my statements. sometimes they conflict but overall its the same message. its you who hasnt shown anything other than your opinion. last time i looked, an opinion isnt fact, so stop acting like yours is.

on a side note, this is my last post. nothing personal against anyone in particular and i dont mean to appear singling you out, houston.

i dont gain anything posting inside information (allegedly) here.

1) im helping my competitors by volunteering information they otherwise wouldnt know (be it directly or someone tells someone kinda thing)

2) regardless of my previous track record, ill still get slammed. i acknowledge that im bringing this onto myself, which plays into this decision.

its just not worth it. overall, y'all are a group of great guys and i wish each and every one of you the best in life.

since this has gone way off topic (sorry mods), i might as well give one last tid bit.

the shriners center, located on braeswood and brompton, will be bidded on by 2 - 4 groups next monday. the winning bidder will probably pay +/- $65 psf for 7.75 A. they will not close until jan of '08 and have around $2m of hard and released earnest money.

have a wonderful day

Does anybody know what will happen to the land that U of H owns on the corner of Braeswood and Wyndale? It's all fenced off now with "University of Houston" property signs. It is right across the street and down a bit from the Parkwood Apartment site where Baylor is building their new facility(ies) soon..

i met with them a couple of years ago about that site. at the time, they were planning on building some type of medical / pharmaceutical (sp?) school there.

LOL Get serious, man. You told us there would be 17,000 units delivered this year. The "numbers from the services that do this research" that you showed us came no where near that. Let's review the numbers from those services that you posted. Even if we were to (wildly) assume that ALL of those that were under contruction at the end of 2006 would be delivered this year, we only get to 11,501, only 2/3 as many as you stated. Perhaps I'm wrong in my presumption about construction times for apartment complexes. If so, I will happily stand corrected. But even if that is the case, and even if all of those 11,501 units are delivered this year, you till need to have 5,500 of the 17,000 proposed units actually START construction and deliver units in 11 months or less... in order to meet your prediction of 17,000 units delivered. Is that possible?... Likely? You tell me.

you must have missed this post that i made:

there very well could "only" be 11k units this year.

if you want to disregard ADS and o'connor, more power to you. every apartment developer i know takes their word, especially considering how much their services cost.

and by the way, a lot of the properties listed "under construction" broke ground several months ago and will begin leasing shortly. some have already started pre-leasing and waiting for their COs. their timetables are all scattered and you cannot just assume they all broke ground at the same time.

heres a clip from o'connor's apartment forecast:

A large number of new apartment projects

You know, you guys *could* pull over places and take pictures.... just a thought

-Michael

but that defeats the whole purpose of DWTP; then it would be something like POWTP (pulling over while taking pictures).

and wheres the fun in that?!?

Don't get all defensive on us. I never said anything at all about absorption, positive or negative. I just prefer to discuss these things with realistic, rational numbers. And you're still exaggerating the numbers. Even from the numbers you've given us, it appears quite unlikely that there will be as many as 11,000 units delivered this year. Seems more likely to be in the range of 6-7,000 I would guess.

im not exaggerating nor getting defensive, im backing my statements up with numbers from services that do this research as a business. they are not always right but ill take their extensive research over your "guess" (nothing personal).

i guarantee (which is the first time ive said that on these boards) that there will be more than 6,000 - 7,000 units delievered this year. i can think of 5,000 just off the top of my head that will be leasing by summer but what do i know....

Woah, now. Our 2006 absorption was negative, but that was just the net difference between the gains from job creation and household formation as subtracted from the losses that occured throughout the year (and continue to occur at a slower pace) from the bleeding off of Katrina/Rita evacuees that had shocked the market in 2005.

Barring some sort of an economic collapse, we will have positive absorption in 2007. It may still be slightly undercut by the tail end of the Katrina/Rita effect, but is certain to be positive. I'm not so sure that it will be sufficiently high to maintain the occupancy or rental rates that we've got today.

i honestly hope you are right and my gut feeling is wrong.

ive negelected this thread way too long.

If you say it I believe it.

Every development we talk about on HAIF you seem to know the truth behind them all.

not all, just the ones i talk about

Sorry, that does not add up to 17,000 units being delivered during 2007. First off, surely none of the 17,000 units that are only "proposed" will be delivered during 2007, so that brings us down to a possible delivery of 11,501.

And of the 11,501 "under construction" one would presume that they are at various stages of construction and almost certainly not all of them will be delivered during 2007.

Furthermore, as has been pointed out earlier, several of those under construction are replacing old apartment complexes, so the net addition to the market is less than the number of units being constructed. Yes, we know they are replacing Class C apartment with Class A apartments, but at the same time, some other, older, Class A apartments are slipping into Class B category and older Class B apartments slip into the Class C category. It's all one apartment market.

there very well could "only" be 11k units this year. rather than taking 3 years to absorb, it will only take a two and a half. regardless, its a crap load and we will be a renters market. if you honestly believe there will be a positive absorbtion, more power to you. i mean, we had negative absorbtion last year, so why would this year be better?

theres a few you can take with a grain of salt (camdens superblock) but i see a majority of these deals going forward.

if we dont pick up north of 50k jobs, its going to be a renters market for some time to come.

if the lender lends, the builder will build

Many of the proposed and under construction properties are tax credit properties- O'Connor shows 15 affordable housing projects under construction versus 37 market rate. So its not as if these are all targeting the same renters. This is obviously a tremendous amount of construction, but job growth remains strong and Class A absorption solid.

These guys have been working on this redevelopment plan for several years. Its a fantastic site. And at a project like this, you are knocking down several hundred units, so Allen House (or Westcreek) is not adding as many units as seems at first blush.

on paper, your theory is correct. however, you are demolishing affordable housing for $1.50+ rents, so its not off-setting each other.

additionally, per ADS, there were 11,000 units (a majority market rate, NOT tax credit) under construction at the end of last year with 17,000 proposed. therefore, we most likely will see about 17,000 market rate units available this year, as i stated earlier

edited to add (and hopefully this works):

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Central:

Camden City Centre I / Camden 379 493P Montrose/Museum

City Plaza / Koontz McCombs 404 493J Montrose/Museum

Metropole / Cambridge 290 492X Inner Loop W/Greenway

Camden Plaza / Camden 271 492W Inner Loop W/Greenway

Alexan Kirby / Trammell Crow 230 492Y Inner Loop W/Greenway

Alexan Main Street / Trammell Crow 286 532L Med Center/Bellaire

Mosaic / Wood Partners 393 533B Med Center/Bellaire

Taylor Heights / Martin Fein 326 493F Heights

Southwest:

Gables 6464 / Gables 163 490R Galleria

Alexan Post Oak / Trammell Crow 394 491R Galleria

Woodlake Site / Sueba 265 490S Woodlake/Westheimer

Broadstone Memorial / Alliance Comm 400 488C West Memorial/Briar Fst

Portico at West Eight/Richfield 510 489V Westchase

Lakemont / Verde 312 526E Fort Bend

Sienna Plantation Site / Martin Fein 270 609Z Fort Bend

Wynhaven at Fort Bend / Trammell Crow 300 571S Fort Bend

Brazos Ranch / Judwin 308 605R Richmond/Rosenberg

Villas at River Park/Internacional 300 607J Richmond/Rosenberg

Northwest:

Broadstone Lofts W 18th/Alliance Com 304 452S Brookhollow

Alexan Bunker Hill / Trammell Crow 398 450X Spring Branch

Torrey Chase Site I/ Bohannon 232 331W FM 1960 W/Champions

Conservatory Champions Fst** 190 330T FM 1960 W/Champions

Cypress Pointe / Woodmark 228 329P FM 1960 W/Champions

Stoneleigh Spring Cypress II/Woodmark 242 330B FM 1960 W/Champions

290 & Skinner Site / New Quest 252 367F FM 1960 W/Steeplechase

Boardwalk @ Town Center/ Cambridge 450 251G Woodlands/Far North

Abbey Woodlands / Abbey Res 360 251U Woodlands/Far North

Conservatory Alden Bridge** 190 216K Woodlands/Far North

Alexan Woods / Trammell Crow 280 252W Woodlands/Far North

River Pointe III / Martin Fein 224 Conr Conroe

Northeast:

Villas @ Foxbrick II 70 334U FM 1960 E/IAH Airport

Wynhaven @ Deerbrook / Trammell Crow 360 335T FM 1960 E/IAH Airport

Lafayette Village* / Dwayne Henson 250 457Y Far East

Stone Park II / Greystar 276 457U Far East

Fall Creek III / Martin Fein 246 375Z Far East

Magnolia Cove Site / DMC 192 337G Lake Houston/Kingwood

Southeast:

Anna Dupree* 176 573D Hwy 288/South

Carrington Park @ Sabo / Davis 258 576Y Gulfgate/Almeda Mall

Tuscan Lakes II / Martin Fein 204 659B Clear Lake

Bayview**/ CIS 240 461Y Baytown

Village @ Morningstar**/DMA Dev 78 TEXC Texas City

======

Total (41 properties) 11,501

PROPOSED:

Central:

Mid Town Site I&II / Camden 600 Montrose/Museum

Post Mid Town III / Post 136 Montrose/Museum

Camden City Centre II / Camden 263 Montrose/Museum

4310 Dunlavy I&II / Marom 486 Montrose/Museum

City Place / Farb 183 Montrose/Museum

Alexan Westheimer Sq / TCR 244 Montrose/Museum

Museum Site / Grayco 219 Montrose/Museum

Gables River Oaks I / Gables 378 Inner Loop W/Greenway

Gables River Oaks II / Gables 350 Inner Loop W/Greenway

HISD Site / Morgan & TCR Commercial 600 Inner Loop W/Greenway

Comfort Inn Site / DMC 309 Inner Loop W/Greenway

The Belle Meade / Grayco 119 Inner Loop W/Greenway

Verandah @ Meyerland II / Verandah 174 Med Center/Bellaire

Genesis Park II / Archstone 400 Med Center/Bellaire

OST & Almeda Site /Simmons Vedder 304 Med Center/Bellaire

OST & Kirby Site / Simmons Vedder 293 Med Center/Bellaire

N Braeswood Site / Grayco 344 Med Center/Bellaire

Washington & Waugh / Morgan 236 Heights

Park Tower / Finger 347 Inner Loop East

Southwest:

Regency Arms Site / Marom 350 Galleria

Gables 6464 Phase II / Gables 220 Galleria

Alexan Voss / Trammell Crow 400 Galleria

Eldridge/Briar Fst / Simmons Vedder 330 West Memorial/Briar Fst

Lofts on Briar Forest / Guefen 352 West Memorial/Briar Fst

Camden Oak Crest II Camden 300 Westchase

Bridgegate / Hettig 324 Fort Bend

Shadowbrooke II / Cornerbrook Dev 300 Fort Bend

West Bellfort at Hwy 6 / Funding Inc 288 Fort Bend

Northwest:

Nexus Site / Gross 300 Brookhollow

Enclave @ Tidwell*/Hettig 40 Brookhollow

Northbrooke II / Cornerbrook Dev 260 FM 1960 W/Champions

Torrey Chase Site II/ Bohannon 204 FM 1960 W/Champions

San Cierra / Sueba 362 FM 1960 W/Champions

Vintage Oaks / Sueba 350 FM 1960 W/Champions

Cypresswood & 249 / Michael Stevens 324 FM 1960 W/Champions

Stoneleigh at Ella / Woodmark 400 FM 1960 W/Champions

Paramatta & I-45 / Woodmark 250 FM 1960 W/Champions

Wynhaven @ Grant Rd / Trammell Crow 372 FM 1960 W/Steeplechase

Huffmeister Cypress N Houston / Davis 250 FM 1960 W/Steeplechase

Alexan Somerall / Trammell Crow 368 Bear Creek/Copperfield

Barker Cypress & 529 / Davis 250 Bear Creek/Copperfield

Alexan Yorktown / Trammell Crow 306 Bear Creek/Copperfield

Mason & Oak Pk Trail / Judwin 308 Katy/Far West

Foxlake Drive Site / Beeler 320 Katy/Far West

Vizcaya @ Park Harbor II / 276 Katy/Far West

Legends @ Cinco Ranch 270 Katy/Far West

Landmark at Katy / Landmark 240 Katy/Far West

Mason Park / Today Realty Advisors 312 Katy/Far West

The Mansions Woodland / Westerm Rim 250 Woodlands/Far North

Lakes @ Westview II & III / Realm 372 Conroe

Wedgewood Falls/ Allen Acq 120 Conroe

Northeast:

Green Pines II* / SPM 220 Eastex Frwy/Near NE

Waterside Court*/Hettig 118 Northline/Aldine

Fair Lake Cove* / Greater Coastal 200 Lake Houston/Kingwood

Harbor Walk II / Chancellor 100 Lake Houston/Kingwood

Southeast:

Landmark City Park / Landmark 240 Hwy 288/South

Shadow Creek Ranch II / Davis 300 Hwy 288/South

South Shore Harbor Site / Flournoy 300 Clear Lake

Nasa Road I Site / Davis 250 Clear Lake

======

Total (59 properties) 17,116

No kidding. What's with the cynicism? We aren't talking about Tracy Suttles this time around.

now thats funny!

as i said earlier in this thread (oh, i dunno, 3 or 4 pages back), this deal will move forward... its only a matter of time.

oh dear, i think we started something.

rule one of DWTP

there is no DWTP

Note: This post originally appeared in the Allen House: it was nice knowing you - thread and was moved to an on-topic thread.

Well yeah, you're right. ...but they might also be attracted to a place that offers three months of free rent and a free plasma screen TV. It happens. It will happen. Watch.

thats what happens when you build 17,000 units. yes, you read that correctly...

we are expecting seventeen thousand units to come on line this year.

*coughbloodbathcough*

I hear ya.

Look what happened to the last guy who tried to DWTP. All that's left of his car is sitting up against that cement guard wall, with a spring sticking out.

oops, thought i cleaned all of the evidence

If "there is always room at the top", then we wouldn't have so many penthouse condo units still on the market.

More importantly, what happens when the bottom drops out of the market? Lower-end properties lower their effective rents even further, stealing away market share from the higher-end properties. In response, higher-end properties lower their rents, in effect maintaining a market share equilibreum, just with less revenue across the board.

Within this class of apartment products, where the number of comparable developments is very limited, I'd expect that these larger developments will be competing amongst one another. And although you're right that households will probably sort themselves between these developments by their place of employment, that still doesn't escape the fact that there is now potentially going to be more supply chasing after about the same amount of this type of demand.

having said that, when theres a glut of class "a" properties, they start offering concessions and reduced rents. they need warm bodies in the units and will practically give it away.. 2 or 3 months free, prorated, zero deposit, and with a free flat screen tv?!? no problem.. they end up taking people that would normally rent in a "b" property. their net effect is essentially the same, so why wouldnt they move into a brand-spanking-new apartment? who cares about the income requirements when their occupancy is blood red.

so then the "b"s have to start dropping rents, raising concessions, etc. just to keep their current residents. in turn, "c" residents start upgrading to "b"s. its a domino effect.

obviously this is a worst case scenario but is realistic. heck, we saw it just 18 months ago

boris,

a suggestion from a well seasoned veteran of DWTP; roll down the window, sick your camera outside of the car, and snap like theres no tomorrow. so what if you take 20 pictures of the same scene, at least a couple should come out well centered.

disclaimer - this message does not condone hands-free driving while not looking at the road

Still, this is kind of surprising to me, given that the 740 apartment units (a whopping number for high-end developments) will only add to the glut that is in the pipeline. I know that some developers are starting to realize that we're in for tough times, but apparently these folks are just oblivious.

when i read the article this morning, that was the first thought that crossed my mind. there is a HUGE glut of newly constructed apartments within a mile radius of this site. if you are a renter, i bet you will find some great deals in that area within the next 12 months

DWTP

i love it

ps - heaven forbid if anything bad happens to those who take part in this euphoric experience, dont blame me

Although it applies most accurately to suburban contexts, I think you can see where I'm going with this.

: standing ovation :

Does anyone have an update on this project? I know, I know....this will be retreading the same old ground. BUT nothing seems to be happening. Can we just throw dirt on this one?

last i heard, atlas signed up the required reservations and fremont made the loan.

The last thing Houston needs is another Big Box store with pod sites, especially on such highly visible land.

i agree with you

Although I'd rather not get off topic on a long-winded debate over this, do you know whether the tenants were more inclined not to commit because 1) rail might threaten vehicular access or 2) because the lack of rail might threaten transit access? I'm pretty sure that I know the answer, but I'd prefer to verify from someone in the know.

I'll start up another thread on this matter so that the debate doesn't overshadow this very important topic.

i know this will appear to be talking out of both sides of my mouth, but it is what it is.

1) with an unknown timeline and if rail was or was not going down richmond, prospective retailers were hesitant to commit. if the rail line was to stop in front of the site, there was concern of how long construction would take and the damage it hypothetically could create for opening businesses. there are retail guys here that know more than i but from what ive heard in the past, the first year makes or breaks a business. its a rock and a hard place scenario.

2) without rail, the site became less appealing.

with the clock ticking down to zero, crow had to make a decision. from a responsible development perspective, they screwed the pooch in my humble opinion. however, on the other hand, from a business perspective, they did the right thing.

houston... gotta love it

dont know if i mentioned this earlier but FWIW, no retailers were going to commit to the site without knowing about the rail situation. time was of the essence, since crow and morgan had a sizeable deposit up, and had to make a decision. costco came in at a great number, so they had to take it.

dont blame morgan because their input on the commercial side was minimal. lets just say i seriously doubt they will ever partner up with crow commercial again.

i love this pic. sorta looks like the light is pointing straight up ala lexor in vegas

as always, thanks for sharing.