houston-development

Still, this is kind of surprising to me, given that the 740 apartment units (a whopping number for high-end developments) will only add to the glut that is in the pipeline. I know that some developers are starting to realize that we're in for tough times, but apparently these folks are just oblivious.

when i read the article this morning, that was the first thought that crossed my mind. there is a HUGE glut of newly constructed apartments within a mile radius of this site. if you are a renter, i bet you will find some great deals in that area within the next 12 months

Although it applies most accurately to suburban contexts, I think you can see where I'm going with this.

: standing ovation :

Does anyone have an update on this project? I know, I know....this will be retreading the same old ground. BUT nothing seems to be happening. Can we just throw dirt on this one?

last i heard, atlas signed up the required reservations and fremont made the loan.

The last thing Houston needs is another Big Box store with pod sites, especially on such highly visible land.

i agree with you

Although I'd rather not get off topic on a long-winded debate over this, do you know whether the tenants were more inclined not to commit because 1) rail might threaten vehicular access or 2) because the lack of rail might threaten transit access? I'm pretty sure that I know the answer, but I'd prefer to verify from someone in the know.

I'll start up another thread on this matter so that the debate doesn't overshadow this very important topic.

i know this will appear to be talking out of both sides of my mouth, but it is what it is.

1) with an unknown timeline and if rail was or was not going down richmond, prospective retailers were hesitant to commit. if the rail line was to stop in front of the site, there was concern of how long construction would take and the damage it hypothetically could create for opening businesses. there are retail guys here that know more than i but from what ive heard in the past, the first year makes or breaks a business. its a rock and a hard place scenario.

2) without rail, the site became less appealing.

with the clock ticking down to zero, crow had to make a decision. from a responsible development perspective, they screwed the pooch in my humble opinion. however, on the other hand, from a business perspective, they did the right thing.

houston... gotta love it

dont know if i mentioned this earlier but FWIW, no retailers were going to commit to the site without knowing about the rail situation. time was of the essence, since crow and morgan had a sizeable deposit up, and had to make a decision. costco came in at a great number, so they had to take it.

dont blame morgan because their input on the commercial side was minimal. lets just say i seriously doubt they will ever partner up with crow commercial again.

gosh darn it, now ive got to purchase a new monitor.

just blew coffee all over it after looking at their asking $30/sq ft nnn

atlas already has about $250 psf in the deal

Houston isn't gay, its happy! >

not that theres anything wrong with that

I am just curious why everyone assumes that just b/c a crane goes up that a project is actually real? It would not be uneard of for a developer who is losing the confidence of his buying public to try and regain that confidence by pushing dirt or erecting a crane. Until I see substantial foundation work being done, i.e. piers being drilled and poured, I still have serious doubts about whether this project is real.

I'm not saying it isn't a nice project. The architects did a really nice job. I just think that their prices are absurdly high for this market, and knowing a little bit about condominium development, even if they do make it out of the ground I see serious issues down the road for them. The absorption rate for units at that price in this city is ridiculously low and, if they do commence construction I'd wager that half of the building will be empty when they finish. They are also about to have serious competition in the high-end, ultra-luxury market with Turnberry coming in. That is a company who has tremendous experience in that sector of the market, really knows how to run a sales and marketing program and will be averaging less psf than 2727.

The only condo project that is getting under construction currently is Cosmopolitan, who have sold out more than 65 of 75 units and recently added three floors to the building. There is talk of another project starting sales in three months in the Highland Village area and Randall Davis is about to launch one just up the street from 2727 in Rice Village.

BTW - Comparing Houston to NY is really not the way it works. Houston sells for what Houston sells for and NYC sells for what that market can bear.

the deal is moving forward because atlas got construction financing via fremont.

in regards to velocity and if this project being sucessful or not, well, i cant dispute a word you said. honestly, i think the chances of atlas loosing his shirt are better than not but i hope for the best.

it's on the northwest corner Of the intersection, right next to those esplanade apartments.

havent seen it but that could be phase 2 of esplanade.

dont have any inside information, honest.

know they cleaned the site and its significantly more valuable than when they bought it. would think they could easily make 3x on their money.

hardy will be eventually redeveloped; probably by an out of state group.

A BIG thank you for pics. I think Houston has been ready for a 21st Century Huntingdon for a while. Never a doubt in my mind. 2727 Kirby is all that!

think everyone had doubts at some point but all that matters is the deal going forward.

let me clear up some misconceptions.

the site that hanover wanted to purchase was the only land available that was for sale (i believe it was 3 acres). anyone can confirm this with ken katz, who brokered the dickey track. since hanover does not develop on leased land, that one piece was the only one they pursued. it has nothing to do with what they wanted, it wasnt available for ANY price, period. the dickey trust is flush with cash (understatement).

i try to show respect to everyone, regardless of their number of posts. every person here started off at 0 however, if someone comes on here and spreads lies, acts like they are talking about when they dont, or calls me out, im going to call a spade a spade.

i try not to portray myself as arrogant but i can see how someone may see me that way. hence the reason i will occasionally even apologize in advance, just in case. if i have come across that way, again, i apologize. ive been wrong before and will admit to it without hesitation.

i speak with the higher ups more than i care admitting to. its my business and what i do, in addition to other "stuff", day to day. i have never lied, misrepresented, nor elaborated on any information i have passed along onto this forum. sometimes i get bad info, it happens.... if i get 2nd hand intel, i will state it (ie from a source i deem reliable) but otherwise, its 1st hand.

honest.

please dont confuse knowledge with arrogance.

stay warm, its chilly out there.

edited to add: that high-rise across san felipe from 4-leaf is hanovers (back and top right). there is a street between it and where eatzis was. notice, one tower only.

I didn't copy or paste anything. I know for a fact that a HIGHER UP approached atlas for the page parks site. In the pre-development stages of the post oak site, there where going to be 2 towers. If hanover regrets anything about the dickey site, it is that they didn't buy the front piece of the property or that they didn't buy the whole thing. Hanover has Riverway, which is by far the nicest apartment high-rise living in houston. Why are you so mean. I am not trolling. I know what I am talking about. I was simply responding to the first post I read which happened to be yours. Geez, man. Lighten up.

okay, im going to go back on what i said only to show that you dont know what you are talking about. after this, im done.

hanover does not participate in leased land. the site they were going to take down is the only piece that was available for sale of the dickey site, not for lease.

i wont be "mean" if you stop acting like you know facts when you clearly dont.

have a wonderful day and stay warm.

Hanover has no regrets about not building on that property. They were on the back side of the lot and gables had the front. Hanover backed out b/c the gables buildings would block all hanover views to downtown. Hanover has bigger and better thigs happening. They are going to build two towers at san felipe and post oak. Where the eatzis currently resides. That whole strip center will be demolished and turned in to a 78,000sqft Whole Foods and then hanover will build the towers. Hanover also tried to buy the page parks land from atlas but atlas turned them down.

im going to comment on this once and only once. if you want to flame or continue to troll, more power to you. i just wont participate in it.

first off, you essentially copy and pasted everything i said before.

secondly, if you talked to anyone that was higher up in hanover, they will all tell you they regret not moving forward on dickey site.

thirdly, they are not going to build 2 towers where eatzis is. they are going to build 1 tower and its where the palm reader currently resides.

and finally, hanover did not try to buy page parkes from atlas. tried buying the left over phase of oak lane, in which they passed and zom took it down.

note to self.

dont feed the troll.

originally, there were going to be two deals on the tennis courts. one track was under contract for sale to hanover for a rental high-rise. the other was a 99-year lease to gables for a rental mid-rise. in order for hanover to make their numbers work based upon a HUGE land price, they were going to have numerous upcharges for premium views. everything was going well until gables came back and said they too were going to build a high-rise which would block a majority of hanovers views. this killed hanovers deal and they dropped the contract about 3 or 4 months ago.

i am not aware if gables will end up leasing the entire site or if part of it will be sold. i'm assuming that it will all be leased, but i could be mistaken.

regardless, the deal going up on the tennis courts is being built by an apartment developer and intended for apartments. if a condo converter comes to them on a pre-sale or if gables decides to convert themsleves, then its a different story. but as of a couple of weeks ago (or at least last i heard) it will be apartments.

ooops, edited to add, sorry, i missed velvet's original post. while i appreciate the *coughs*, they are not needed. more than happy to enlighten others when i can.

in regards to the kirby condos, i would give it better than a 50/50 chance. atlas has dropped a pretty sum in the deal and is currently negotiating with the existing tennants. i would say kirby is more realistic than shamrock; however, that's not saying too much as i said earlier, he is moving forward on oak lane which he did as a jv (regardless of what he says to others). so he is getting more experience and a presence within the immediate vicinity.

i was just skimming through the first page and this one caught my eye.

note the date it was written.

hanover could have bought that land for $72 and passed. ask them today what site they regret most passing on, in all of their years as a company. bet you $100 they say kirby/westheimer.

Fair enough. I'm assuming that you have an interest in this development, and it was not my intention to criticize the validity of your project. I think it's a great looking building, and by all means, I wish you success. However, from a buyers perspective, I think it's more difficult to justify the cost of luxury high-rise condo ownership in Houston than in most other cities.

It will be interesting to find out whether there is a market for high-rise living at $400-$500 psf given the availability of nearby single family homes at less than $300 psf. With land prices generally under $200 psf (and more often under $100) in the most expensive parts of the city, it's going to be a while before land prices offset the cost of building up 20-30 stories. As a result, Houston buyers who choose high-rise living pay a substantial premium for their housing choice when compared to buyers of single family homes within the same neighborhood. This a big difference between Houston and Cities like NY, DC, or Boston, where building up dramatically lowers the cost psf of living space.

The other problem is that Houston's property taxing scheme amplifies the penalty imposed on those who pay a premium for housing. It's one thing to pay 1.5x to 2x more psf in terms of purchase price, as this is money the buyer could reasonably expect to recoup. I suspect this wouldn't deter most of those who have the money and the desire to live in a high-end high-rise. However, the burden of paying 3% in taxes on an assessment that is 1.5x-2.0x higher than a nearby single family home is significant, and I suspect this is where you start to significant portion of the potential market.

please note that the following post should not be seen as arrogant. if it does, i apologize in advance because its not my intention and PLEASE do not take it that way. just telling it how it is...

obviously you havent read much of this thread. go see how critical and doubtful ive been of it

let me be perfectly clear, i have absolutely, positively ZERO interest in this project. promise.

condos historically command a higher price / sq ft compared to its single-family neighbors; however, the total price is significantly less. while i completely understand your argument, that, my friend, is the whole condo concept. we can agree to disagree but it is what it is.

im guessing that the average unit will go for $800,000 (please, someone correct me if im wrong). Compared to most of the homes in river oaks, you get more for less (ie new construction). and theres a couple of VERY rich houstonians who would love to say that they live in the best unit for only about $8M. thats their ego talking...

land prices, especially in the past 3 years, have gone bonkers (wish I were eloquent enough to acurately describe how nuts its been).you cannot find land on kirby for less than $100 psf. if you know of some and its at least 30k sq ft, please let me know and ill have a contract for you tomorrow. seriously. once you have breached $75 psf (a number that has been confirmed by many), you have to go vertical. tcr is going against this rule on post oak and i wish them the best of luck. hopefully their rents will justify that development.

The $1000 psf was a typo, as you can see I corrected it later in the paragraph. $400-$800 is the correct figure according to har.com. As for the New York reference, I was being facetious. I'm well aware that comparable units in NYC would cost well in excess of $400-$800. However, I'm also aware that these prices are at least equally out of place in Houston as they would be in NY. Property is assessed at market value (i.e. purchase price) in Harris County. My understanding is that a typical homeowner is taxed at a little over 3% of the assessed value (w/o homestead exemption). So, assuming a purchase price of $800 psf at 3% yields $24 psf in yearly property taxes. Am I missing something?

oh dear..

if you look at har, a majority of the units are $400 - $500 psf. stop focusing only on the high end because it is not a representative sample.

2,000 sq ft sells for $450 / sq ft which equals $900,000. Assuming a full assessment, 3% is $27,000 which is $13.50 / sq ft.

big difference between my number and yours, eh?

from the other weekend:

And, they're asking $400-$1000 psf. As a buyer you would get slammed in three ways. First, $.65 psf in HOA fees is way, way too much for a new building. You can purchase a lot of services ala carte for that money. Second, they're asking $400-$800 psf. These prices would be very competitive, in New York. Then as a reward for setting the new $ psf record for all Houston residential real estate you'll get to pay record taxes psf. Can you imagine paying $24 psf per year in property tax?

what are you talking about $400 - $1,000 psf?

and just so everyone knows, $0.65 is not completely unreasonable going forward. assures buyers that the reserve will be flush and they dont have to worry about a reassessment any time soon.

and you cant find anything in nyc for $400 psf that would be comparable to 2727 kirby. would think easily $1,000+.

i heard this weekend that they plan on charging $0.65 psf for hoa dues

dont mean to toot my own horn but who did i say the lender was?

ps - they were moving more dirt today

Looks like yet another Alexan project going up in Houston on the site of the old Surrey House hotel near Main and Kirby. Its too early to tell how its going to look, but anything is an improvement over the hotel that was there before.

http://www.alexanmainstreet.com/

thats the old surrey house and grants palm court inn. crow closed about 6 months ago and paid $35 psf for +/- 4 acres.