How Will 5m More Fit In Houston? Freeways?

[bruce_oneal]

from what i understand houston stands to gain another 5M people by 2010. where are these folks gonna live and what are our freeways going to look like?

i shudder to think of the gridlock that is coming!

[citykid09]

I think you're wrong its like 2 million extra in 2020.

[bruce_oneal]

I think you're wrong its like 2 million extra in 2020.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

either way, it is still a lot more people.

[MaxConcrete]

from what i understand houston stands to gain another 5M people by 2010.  where are these folks gonna live and what are our freeways going to look like?

i shudder to think of the gridlock that is coming!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Others have corrected your population increase numbers, but it is still a lot of people.

The vast majority will live in the distant suburbs. A small percentage of the growth will be inside the loop. See HGAC projections for exact numbers.

This means we need to continue to aggressively expand freeways and add new tollways. Forget about light rail - it is totally cost-ineffective for serving distant suburbs. Transit should focus on buses.

The solution is

1. Expand freeways with typically one added lane in each direction plus tolled managed lanes. (as planned for US 290, SH 288, and I-45)

2. Add new tollways where feasible

3. Build a seamless, connected system of tolled/HOV lanes (often called HOT lanes)

4. Improve and expand park-and-ride bus service

5. Light rail for the inner loop only

[bruce_oneal]

Others have corrected your population increase numbers, but it is still a lot of people.

The vast majority will live in the distant suburbs. A small percentage of the growth will be inside the loop. See HGAC projections for exact numbers.

This means we need to continue to aggressively expand freeways and add new tollways. Forget about light rail - it is totally cost-ineffective for serving distant suburbs. Transit should focus on buses.

The solution is

1. Expand freeways with typically one added lane in each direction plus tolled managed lanes. (as planned for US 290, SH 288, and I-45)

2. Add new tollways where feasible

3. Build a seamless, connected system of tolled/HOV lanes (often called HOT lanes)

4. Improve and expand park-and-ride bus service

5. Light rail for the inner loop only

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i like the light rail idea for the inner loop AND inner beltway.

[citykid09]

Houston needs something like the Long Island Rail Road. I love that thing, even though it cost alot to ride. I was up there last week and road from Ronkonkua to Penn Station. Thats like going from Bryan College Station to Houston. I wish there was one from BCS to Houston, I would be on that thing every week. But you know there would have to be local rail like light rail so that you can get around, because Houston is big. I walked around pretty much all of Manhattan and did not need a car (rode the subway, and taxis a few times). It was nice.

[bruce_oneal]

Houston needs something like the Long Island Rail Road. I love that thing, even though it cost alot to ride. I was up there last week and road from Ronkonkua to Penn Station. Thats like going from Bryan College Station to Houston. I wish there was one from BCS to Houston, I would be on that thing every week. But you know there would have to be local rail like light rail so that you can get around, because Houston is big. I walked around pretty much all of Manhattan and did not need a car (rode the subway, and taxis a few times). It was nice.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i said this before, why are we not using the MILES and MILES of rails that are already here?

[tomv]

Reading this made me think of when I was up in the NYC area several years ago. I was on Long Island and needing to get back to my friend's apartment in Queens. I didn't have a car, and mass transit seemed so simple...As it turned out, it took most of the evening and I had to use 5 different forms of transportation: private car from a friend's apartment to the train station on Long Island, train to Manhattan, subway to the tip of Manhattan, ferry to Queens, and bus to my friend's apartment. I have nothing against mass transit and think it's kind of cool actually, but you do have to be realistic and keep in mind that it's not the answer to everything.

[kjb434]

The of riding heavy rail transit is too much the Houston populace Light rail will be an inner loop thing. It will go out to the airports though. Commuter rail is planned for Sugarland to the Fannin station on the Red Line and for the US 290 corridor from out in Fairfield to the Northwest Transit Center. The Commuter rail are years away though because our freeways have plenty of capacity. Most of the longer rail options won't be built untill a final expansion of freeways and adding of managed lanes built.

For example, US 290 will dismantle its HOV once the companion toll road is built. Then US 290 will be completely rebuilt with a better ramp geometrics and 8 continous lanes. After all this is built, commuter rail may be built.

All the future regional transit plans will consider future rail, but the rail will not be built.

Houston's main issue is not freeway capacity, but the interchanges is where most of the problems light.

I think our path for rail will be similar to Los Angeles Metro. The fully built their freeway system and now are adding tollways with a few rail lines. Right now we are adding tollways and building out our freeways.

[westguy]

But realistically, we're never ever going to build our way out of traffic congestion, especially if the metro area expands as people continue to populate the far fringes. I don't know what effects gas prices and tolls will have on peoples' commute patterns. Since those things are continually on the way up, I wonder how people will change their responses when they have less in the pocketbooks.

[RedScare]

I think what will happen is what always happens...people will scream bloody murder for more transportation options.

2005 will become known as the year that the unthinkable became thinkable. Prior to this year, almost no one thought gas could go up and stay up, or even go higher. Now, the only people I ever hear saying it will drop is the occasional moron in the oil business trying to make himself sound knowledgable.

GM and Ford SUV sales are way down this year. If there is a Gulf hurricane this summer, GM sales will plummet. Tom DeLay has already dropped his no-rail stance, and Culberson will soon find that it doesn't get him a lot of votes.

As gas prices increase, the city may compress slightly, as people realize the cost of driving 30 miles to their jobs, but not drastically. However, pressure will increase dramatically on elected officials to give us another way to get around.

How quickly that happens depends on how soon we see $3.oo gasoline.

[The Voice of University Oaks]

We cannot "build our way out of congestion." As metropolitan areas constantly add more people, more houses, more jobs and more cars, there will always be congestion. It's just a fact of life.

Yes, you'll see more light rail inside the loop (and perhaps, eventually, to a few select activity areas outside the loop, like Hobby, Greenspoint/IAH and even Westchase) to serve as high capacity collector/distributor functions. Suburban commuter rail along 90A, 290, 249 and maybe even a few other corridors is also in Houston's future. But the majority of transportation expansion is going to have to come from more concrete: wider roads, more grade separations, better interchanges, wider freeways and more tollways. And it ain't going to be easy, especially since the era of easy freeway construction through heavily-populated areas has long since come to an end. See what's happening in the Heights, or Spring, or Oak Forest, or the near Northside? Residents are set off by even the mere suggestion that a widened freeway or tollway could be coming through their neighborhood.

The next 20 years in Houston are going to be real fun to watch, if you're a transportation junkie...

[bruce_oneal]

We cannot "build our way out of congestion." As metropolitan areas constantly add more people, more houses, more jobs and more cars, there will always be congestion. It's just a fact of life.

Yes, you'll see more light rail inside the loop (and perhaps, eventually, to a few select activity areas outside the loop, like Hobby, Greenspoint/IAH and even Westchase) to serve as high capacity collector/distributor functions. Suburban commuter rail along 90A, 290, 249 and maybe even a few other corridors is also in Houston's future. But the majority of transportation expansion is going to have to come from more concrete: wider roads, more grade separations, better interchanges, wider freeways and more tollways. And it ain't going to be easy, especially since the era of easy freeway construction through heavily-populated areas has long since come to an end. See what's happening in the Heights, or Spring, or Oak Forest, or the near Northside? Residents are set off by even the mere suggestion that a widened freeway or tollway could be coming through their neighborhood.

The next 20 years in Houston are going to be real fun to watch, if you're a transportation junkie...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i think the unthinkinable is going to happen too ... i mean, it's amazing what the pocketbook can accomplish what years of politics couldn't. people WILL clamor for more options than the freeway.

[HeightsGuy]

To all the rail hopefuls out there, you can't make people ride rail unless they're incented to ride rail. People ride rail in NYC and DC (and many other places) because driving a car is no longer a viable option (due to time/parking/cost issues). As long as Houston continues to build larger and larger freeways, you won't see rail used to it's potential.

[ricco67]

HG's, that's very true, it's going ot take a private company to take the initiative and you're also correct that it needs to be feasible (or necessary) for people to park their cars.

I think the P&R lots will be heavilly used as downtown gets a bit more dense. In fact, it's my belief that Houston will make extensive use of the P&R lots in the outside of the loop AND Beltway.

My thoughts are that driving in the major areas of the city (Greenway, DT, MD, Reliant) will be more trouble than what it's worth and people will park and hop onto transit if it's more feasible.

Currently it's getting to be that way for the medical center and downtown. Look at the P&R on the South Fannin Rail site. It won't be long until it reaches capacity on a daily basis.

From my observation, people are parking all along the MSC (Main street Corridor) to go to downtown or make quick trips to the MC. I regularly use the Sears parking lot and hop onto Wheeler when going to make quick trips to MC or to DT.

My name is Ricco, and yes I'm an Infrastructure Junkie.

[bruce_oneal]

HG's, that's very true, it's going ot take a private company to take the initiative and you're also correct that it needs to be feasible (or necessary) for people to park their cars.

I think the P&R lots will be heavilly used as downtown gets a bit more dense.  In fact, it's my belief that Houston will make extensive use of the P&R lots in the outside of the loop AND Beltway. 

My thoughts are that driving in the major areas of the city (Greenway, DT, MD, Reliant) will be more trouble than what it's worth and people will park and hop onto transit if it's more feasible. 

Currently it's getting to be that way for the medical center and downtown.  Look at the P&R on the South Fannin Rail site. It won't be long until it reaches capacity on a daily basis. 

From my observation, people are parking all along the MSC (Main street Corridor) to go to downtown or make quick trips to the MC.  I regularly use the Sears parking lot and hop onto Wheeler when going to make quick trips to MC or to DT.

My name is Ricco, and yes I'm an Infrastructure Junkie.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yeah, when i lived in baltimore it made much more sense to drive to the rail station and take the MARC to dc than to drive-in to work. the hassle of parking, etc. was just nightmarish and the train went directly downtown and then you could take a metro to other parts of the city.

[LTAWACS]

No need to worry. They'll all live in the exoburbs. Way out in tomball or conroe or katy or 1960 or sugarland. You know... all the generic, cookie-cutter, synthetic places.

[jghall00]

Reading this made me think of when I was up in the NYC area several years ago.  I was on Long Island and needing to get back to my friend's apartment in Queens.  I didn't have a car, and mass transit seemed so simple...As it turned out, it took most of the evening and I had to use 5 different forms of transportation: private car from a friend's apartment to the train station on Long Island, train to Manhattan, subway to the tip of Manhattan, ferry to Queens, and bus to my friend's apartment.  I have nothing against mass transit and think it's kind of cool actually, but you do have to be realistic and keep in mind that it's not the answer to everything.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The important thing to note is that the means you used to get from A to B is commonly not even an option in places like Houston. If I got stuck out here in the Woodlands, my wife would have to drive 40 miles to come get me. There's a Woodlands express, but the parking lot it services is not near my job.

I think we'll see massive freeway expansion slow and eventually end because the cost will be just too prohibitive. The Katy freeway expansion is the harbinger of that. Look at cost overruns associated with ROW acquisition. I think part of the reason we're seeing more tollways proposed is that they can 1) be built places a normal freeway wouldn't fit (Westpark) 2) Make more efficent use of existing infrastructure (Katy Freeway).

Gas prices won't have as much of an impact in the short term, as we would like. Many of us can improve our mileage just by going to a more efficient vehicle. Look at all the SUVs and Pickups people drive in Texas. They can get an Accord hybrid or Prius that'll double their gas mileage. Clean Diesels are on their way, and hybrid sales are increasing every year. I think higher fuel prices won't affect personal transportation as much as it will the transit of goods and services. Food, goods, building supplies...all that stuff will become more expensive, not to mention other goods that rely on petroleum, such as fertilizers, plastics, and cosmetics.

[N Judah]

This town needs a real visionary. We need some new ideas, not just rehashed ideas from other cities (the same cities people moved here to get away from)...

And no, I don't mean tollways. I mean some real feats of engineering on a massive scale.

[bruce_oneal]

This town needs a real visionary.  We need some new ideas, not just rehashed ideas from other cities (the same cities people moved here to get away from)...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

we didn't leave because of poor mass transit there.

[RedScare]

To all the rail hopefuls out there, you can't make people ride rail unless they're incented to ride rail. People ride rail in NYC and DC (and many other places) because driving a car is no longer a viable option (due to time/parking/cost issues). As long as Houston continues to build larger and larger freeways, you won't see rail used to it's potential.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

To a lesser extent than NYC and DC, it already happens in Houston. Some 30% or so of downtown workers already take mass transit, whether it be rail, bus, Park & Ride or van pool. These riders have already decided that the cost of maintenance, gas, parking and stress outweigh the time and inconvenience of using mass transit. As gas prices increase, the math gets a little more obvious. More options, as well as more convenience, will get more people out of their cars. It doesn't take much. 85% of workers make less than $75,000 per year. Houston has the second highest household transportation cost (behind Anchorage) of approximately $10,000 annually. It is a big chunk of one's disposable income.

As to government leaders spending the money to provide these alternatives, road costs will only increase. Katy Freeway is at $2.2 Billion and rising, for a 23 mile road. That's over $95 million per mile. Light rail at $40 million per mile is looking pretty good. Commuter rail is less. The political decisions will be a lot easier to make when the rail bashers must confront the real costs of highway construction.

[kjb434]

I just got out of meeting with Harris County Public Infrastructure head (Art Storey), Harris County Toll Road Authority Head (Mike Strech), and Houston Council Member Adrian Garcia. Our meeting was discuss the US 290 Corridor within the loop. As you may know, this corridor has a proposed companion tollway and commuter rail.

This was there consensus on the time line. The light rail will primarily be inner loop except the airports. Commuter rail will probably be about 25 to 30 years away because the need isn't there now (not enough people will ride the lines). Tollways and Managed lane corridors will be the most viable option at the current moment.

It was a very interesting meeting. People clamor that our freeways are not big enough. This claim really only flies for the Katy and US 290. And US 290 is only really bad for a 2 hour long rush hour windo each way. The Katy is being taken care of and will be finished soon. US 290 has proposals and concepts in and will occur later. US 290 probably won't be rebuilt quickly because the companion toll road will come first and will be used as the option to the freeway for several years.

Unlike many large cities in the US, Houston came later to the freeway movement than what most people think. Loss Angeles, New York and Chicago moved much quicker than we did. Houston waited. Housted now has the best inner city (inside the loop) freeway system in the country. Outside the loop (which wasn't part of Houston) the freeway systems were built at minimal conditions. Now we are at a place where radials outside the loop need to be upgraded or be assisted. The Southwest freeway now has the Westpark, Fort Bend Parkway, and US 90 mini freeway as supports to remove some traffic. The Eastex was rebuilt and now has what seems is too much capacity. The katy is under construction now. SH 288 will be receiving managed lanes in the median. US 290 will receive a companion tollway. I 45 north has the Hardy tollroad which will go into downtown soon (plans are finishing). It seems that the only free left out is the Gulf Freeway and it has a very high Park-n-Ride ridership.

Rail is great, but is won't solve out traffic problems. It will only give an option in the future. The belief that you build a rail and the freeways will be better is myth. I think Houston will get rail eventually, but the cost needs to be more competitive.

[jghall00]

I just got out of meeting with Harris County Public Infrastructure head (Art Storey), Harris County Toll Road Authority Head (Mike Strech),  and Houston Council Member Adrian Garcia.  Our meeting was discuss the US 290 Corridor within the loop.  As you may know, this corridor has a proposed companion tollway and commuter rail.

This was there consensus on the time line.  The light rail will primarily be inner loop except the airports.  Commuter rail will probably be about 25 to 30 years away because the need isn't there now (not enough people will ride the lines).  Tollways and Managed lane corridors will be the most viable option at the current moment.

It was a very interesting meeting.  People clamor that our freeways are not big enough.  This claim really only flies for the Katy and US 290.  And US 290 is only really bad for a 2 hour long rush hour windo each way.  The Katy is being taken care of and will be finished soon.  US 290 has proposals and concepts in and will occur later.  US 290 probably won't be rebuilt quickly because the companion toll road will come first and will be used as the option to the freeway for several years.

Unlike many large cities in the US, Houston came later to the freeway movement than what most people think.  Loss Angeles, New York and Chicago moved much quicker than we did.  Houston waited.  Housted now has the best inner city (inside the loop)  freeway system in the country.  Outside the loop (which wasn't part of Houston) the freeway systems were built at minimal conditions.  Now we are at a place where radials outside the loop need to be upgraded or be assisted.  The Southwest freeway now has the Westpark, Fort Bend Parkway, and US 90 mini freeway as supports to remove some traffic.  The Eastex was rebuilt and now has what seems is too much capacity.  The katy is under construction now.  SH 288 will be receiving managed lanes in the median.    US 290 will receive a companion tollway.  I 45 north has the Hardy tollroad which will go into downtown soon (plans are finishing).  It seems that the only free left out is the Gulf Freeway and it has a very high Park-n-Ride ridership.

Rail is great, but is won't solve out traffic problems.  It will only give an option in the future.  The belief that you build a rail and the freeways will be better is myth.  I think Houston will get rail eventually, but the cost needs to be more competitive.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Increased freeway expenditures push the day when rail will be cost competitive further and further out. High road building expenses and fuel prices will hasten the day of reckoning. Houston doesn't have a traffic problem. It has a land use problem. We can't all drive at the same time, no amount of road building is going to change that.

[ricco67]

Personally, I think that they are mistaken. I've talked to many people and clients in that area and they WANT an alternative and reliable transit system.

Most believe that while the bus system is handy and effecient for the most part, they believe that since they share the HOV with "civilian" drivers, there is a more likely event in which an accident will occur.

Therefore, a Rail system would be convienent and more reliable, if a network of hubs to/from bus/cars can be made to fan out.

While I agree that rail alone a transit system make, it can help by bringing those further out that would prefer not to use their vehicles.

Ricco

[Gary]

No need to worry. They'll all live in the exoburbs. Way out in tomball or conroe or katy or 1960 or sugarland. You know... all the generic, cookie-cutter, synthetic places.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not for the current state of sprawl but why do subburbs have to be condidered so evil.

[ricco67]

Personally, I don't consider them evil, if it's conducive to your lifestyle, then it's appropriate. Otherwise, I don't think they're overally practical if it actually costs you time and money for the sake of having a larger yard.

But that's just me.

Ricco

[RedScare]

I would be very surprised if the county or Metro waited 25-30 years to decide on commuter rail, even if that is the current position of the administration.

25 years is a very long time, and planning and construction would add more. Consider that 25 years ago, Houston was Boomtown. 19 years ago, Houston was bust. 15 years ago was recovery and 10 was another recession. 5 years ago was a boomlet. Predictions are that 2 million more people will reside in the SMSA in 15 years.

Predictions of PEAK Oil all predict skyrocketing gas prices starting between 2006 and 2020. The 1980s climate of "Rail Bad, Highways Good" will not exist in 2010, much less 2030 to 2035.

I don't think these guys are looking closely at future trends, or more likely, are repeating the current County mantra. One of the guys is the Toll Road Authority chief after all.

[westguy]

It seems that new freeways are going to be tough to build even far from the city center, if segment F2 of the Grand Parkway is any indication. Its become impossible not to hit sprawl wherever you want to build a road.

I agree that our county judges are very backwards-thinking. They do nothing but repeat the mistakes that other metros have made many years ago.

[jghall00]

I'm not for the current state of sprawl but why do subburbs have to be condidered so evil.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Evil is too strong a word. How about malevolent, insidious, or insipid? I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place. I've got kids, but I don't want to live in the suburbs.

[jpcampbell]

Personally, I don't consider them evil, if it's conducive to your lifestyle, then it's appropriate.  Otherwise, I don't think they're overally practical if it actually costs you time and money for the sake of having a larger yard.

But that's just me.

Ricco

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Speaking as a resident of the burbs who moved out there because my job was out there, I can say that a larger yard is worth the extra cost and time for us and our 2 kids. Homes are actually cheaper out here, but I do pay with time as I now commute to the Galleria from The Woodlands. But it's a small price to pay for what my family has out there during the day while I'm at the office. The extra commute is about 30 minutes a day tops, so it's no big deal.