Metro approves $1.46 Billion for 20 miles of light rail

[TheNiche]

The East End doesn't have a "scene" that anyone could look back on. I don't think there will be any nostalgia. Ship the rail through and get it over with.

Nothing against the East End but now that the housing market is down I think Gen Yers with options will be leaving town.

I don't understand any of this. Please elaborate.

[RedScare]

Nothing against the East End but now that the housing market is down I think Gen Yers with options will be leaving town.

Yeah, good luck with that. They might want to check out Detroit, Phoenix, Miami and Las Vegas. I hear it is a Gen Yer paradise with all of the jobs in those cities.

[N Judah]

I think taunting the neighborhood newcomers would make more sense if there were a happening artistic/music/eclectic "scene" to be wistful about but I am not aware of anything like that in the East End. I would be surprised if people really cared if their presence turned it into "squaresville" since it is not clear that there is/was anything worth protecting prior to their arrival.

Yeah, good luck with that. They might want to check out Detroit, Phoenix, Miami and Las Vegas. I hear it is a Gen Yer paradise with all of the jobs in those cities.

I don't think a Gen Yer with options goes anywhere near those cities, irrespective of the economic climate.

Actually, I take that back. They might, once the economy starts picking up. Who knows? But I wasn't necessarily thinking of any of those places in particular.

[TheNiche]

I think taunting the neighborhood newcomers would make more sense if there were a happening artistic/music/eclectic "scene" to be wistful about but I am not aware of anything like that in the East End. I would be surprised if people really cared if their presence turned it into "squaresville" since it is not clear that there is/was anything worth protecting prior to their arrival.

I'd typed out a lengthy description of the artistic/music/eclectic undercurrents that pervade the area (and have for a long time), but upon a second reading of this paragraph--especially the last part of it--I just don't think you're going to get anything out of it.

I don't think a Gen Yer with options goes anywhere near those cities, irrespective of the economic climate.

I still don't understand this statement. It is demonstrably false.

[N Judah]

Probably true. Frankly if you're the type of person who believes that San Francisco became *more* hip during the dot-com boom, then I don't think there's much we can agree on.

I still don't understand this statement. It is demonstrably false.

Market fundamentals

[TheNiche]

Probably true. Frankly if you're the type of person who believes that San Francisco became *more* hip during the dot-com boom, then I don't think there's much we can agree on.

I wouldn't know hip if it were attached to my leg, but I am capable of making observations and then drawing objective conclusions as they relate to the long-term spatial characteristics of subculture in an urban setting.

Market fundamentals

...or perhaps hyperbole on your part?

[N Judah]

I wouldn't know hip if it were attached to my leg, but I am capable of making observations and then drawing objective conclusions as they relate to the long-term spatial characteristics of subculture in an urban setting.

All I can say is if you think the "squaresville" types will look back on the neighborhood with any sort of nostalgia for what was, then I think you are wrong. There is no party that the "squaresville" types can rue being late to.

...or perhaps hyperbole on your part?

Not at all. With the housing bust, Gen Yers have more options than ever.

[TheNiche]

All I can say is if you think the "squaresville" types will look back on the neighborhood with any sort of nostalgia for what was, then I think you are wrong. There is no party that the "squaresville" types can rue being late to.

Let me be clear. Someone like totheskies is an early adopter. He values the neighborhood for what it is and for reasons that he described very eloquently. I find it sort of ironic that he went on that rant explaining how where he lives is the ideal urban form as a response to a post that I made which was a response to a post that he had made lamenting the lack of his ideal urban form in Houston. Nevertheless, it is clear right now that he is an uncommon sort of person in the grand scheme of things, one of a niche market of early adopters. These are the people whose presence makes a neighborhood like the East End tolerable for the Squaresville types. They turn an ethnic monoculture into a mixed area, they set up businesses that cater to the artsy youthful sort, and they visually impact the neighborhood as they become homeowners or, as renters, give reason for the owners of apartments to clean house and try to raise rents. Early adopters rue the day that Squaresville takes over. Everything about the neighborhood that the early adopters found attractive, ranging from housing prices, to the ethnic flavor, to the character of the housing stock, and to a cozy neighborhood feel where everybody knows everybody else--it all changes. McMansions, townhomes, and massive apartment complexes come to predominate. Assuming that totheskies was truthfully portraying the reasons that he likes his neighborhood, he probably won't like it when it transitions to Squaresville.

Not at all. With the housing bust, Gen Yers have more options than ever.

The housing bust was precipitated by the elimination of easy-to-obtain mortgages and a dramatic decline in demand. The factors forcing the decline in demand for housing and the fact that younger, less experienced participants in the labor force are impacted the most by recessions would seem to suggest that Gen Y in fact has fewer options today than it had only a few years ago.

[RedScare]

Not at all. With the housing bust, Gen Yers have more options than ever.

Assuming they have jobs and cash and credit ratings, all 3 things that 20-somethings are largely in short supply of. Unemployment among the 20-something age group can run 20-50% higher than older, more stable workers. Credit is accumulated over time. 20-somethings are new to the world of credit, generally having lower credit scores. Net worth is also accumulated over time. In this brave new world, Gen Yers without 20% down are known as renters.

Frankly, Gen Y options are as limited today as they were when I graduated in 1982...coincidentally, another severe recession. Your Richard Florida myths do not hold water. There are few of the people you speak of. And, there are even fewer of the "options" you speak of. A young person who quits a job today thinking he can pick up a 'hip' job in a 'hip' town is as likely to find himself on the streets as he is to find a job at all. Note, there are not a lot of 'creative class' articles around these days.

[N Judah]

If you are going to rent, and other places are just as affordable as Houston, why stick around here? If jobs are just as hard to find anywhere, and you get stuck doing retail (or attending community college) until the recession blows over, why not live in a place where you don't have to own a car and where the weather is nice?

[RedScare]

If you are going to rent, and other places are just as affordable as Houston, why stick around here? If jobs are just as hard to find anywhere, and you get stuck doing retail (or attending community college) until the recession blows over, why not live in a place where you don't have to own a car and where the weather is nice?

Boy, you sure gave up on the "more options than ever" schtick fast. The fact is, during recessions, people...including Gen Y...worry about jobs over 'hip'. Everyone has their reasons for staying or going. And, in spite of your attempt to make Houston sound like punishment, many of us like it here. In fact, I came BACK here. But, if Houston is so tragically unhip, one must ask, WHY are YOU still here?

[N Judah]

So you think that a Gen Yer without a mortgage or a wife and kids doesn't have "options"? I'd say they have more options than anybody.

What I'm saying is that the only real advantage Houston had -cost of living- is now gone.

[TheNiche]

If you are going to rent, and other places are just as affordable as Houston, why stick around here? If jobs are just as hard to find anywhere, and you get stuck doing retail (or attending community college) until the recession blows over, why not live in a place where you don't have to own a car and where the weather is nice?

The only city that comes to mind that satisfies all of your criteria is San Antonio. I will grant that San Antonio's urban living is markedly less expensive than Houston's (and also of lower quality on average), however vacancy within their downtown rental inventory is very low and a far greater percentage of its jobs are in the suburbs. It might be able to accommodate a couple hundred Gen Y households before it runs out of room, and most of those would have to commute to work (if they can find it) via car. ...somehow, though, I doubt that very many people are going to be relocating to San Antonio in order to take a retail job. And if someone is looking to further their education, San Antonio's selection of universities and community colleges is inferior to Houston's; their largest university is even located 14 miles to the northwest of downtown (the same relative distance as I-10 & Kirkwood is from downtown Houston).

Austin would probably qualify if you look solely at the averages by metropolitan area, however downtown Austin is waaay more expensive than similar offerings in Houston or San Antonio. A lot of UT students rent from crappy apartment complexes southeast of I-35, which are very well-served by bus transit--and they do use the buses--but that's not very hip. I don't know why anybody would bother to relocate speculatively from Houston to Austin if they had to live in places like that and then fend off 50,000 students for a service-sector job.

Outside of Texas, I can't think of anywhere that would meet all your criteria and have any kind of decent and affordable urban environments.

[TheNiche]

So you think that a Gen Yer without a mortgage or a wife and kids doesn't have "options"? I'd say they have more options than anybody.

Bums have options too. Any city they'd like to bum around in is only a Greyhound bus ride away. Does that mean that they're better off for it? ...or does it matter less which city they choose to be a bum in and more that the options that they would actually want to choose from are unavailable to them?

What I'm saying is that the only real advantage Houston had -cost of living- is now gone.

I want data. Show me the money.

[N Judah]

I want data. Show me the money.

Data about plummeting housing prices in other cities relative to Houston?

[TheNiche]

Data about plummeting housing prices in other cities relative to Houston?

Data that shows current average housing prices for housing of like quality (for instance comparing one-bedroom apartments) in downtown or other 'urban' submarkets. Also, we'll need employment data, especially with respect to the number of unfilled open positions in the service sector and to what the wages are.

It may also be interesting to see how these cities have been performing over the last six months as well (every bit of evidence I've seen suggests that Houston is the least worst-off major city), but all we need to establish which cities are most likely to attract this subset of Gen Y is a snapshot of current conditions.

You may proceed to show me the data.

[N Judah]

but all we need to establish which cities are most likely to attract this subset of Gen Y is a snapshot of current conditions.

LoL. If that's how you arrived at your "The East End is the Gen Y neighborhood" conclusion, then that explains a lot.

[TheNiche]

LoL. If that's how you arrived at your "The East End is the Gen Y neighborhood" conclusion, then that explains a lot.

It wasn't. Now stop deflecting the point and please show me your data.

[musicman]

LoL. If that's how you arrived at your "The East End is the Gen Y neighborhood" conclusion, then that explains a lot.

weren't you the one who brought the gen y up?

[TheNiche]

weren't you the one who brought the gen y up?

Shush. Don't distract him with reasonable criticism. He needs to focus on providing the data to substantiate his claims.

[musicman]

What I'm saying is that the only real advantage Houston had -cost of living- is now gone.

any data?

[westguy76]

And based on a report on the local news last night the second best job climate in the state.

[totheskies]

I think that any semantic-based disagreements between us can basically be chalked up to the poor definition of boundaries. When I'm talking about "Third Ward", I'm really referring to the areas in historical plat maps labeled "NEGRO SETTLEMENT". I'm pretty sure this is also the area you were referring to as a place you wouldn't want to live...pretty much as I predicted originally. Technically speaking, btw, you already live in the Third Ward and apparently didn't even realize it.

OTOH Depends on the circumstances.... if one of those shotguns comes on the market, it may be a whole lot of fun to "fix up". I'd probably need some sturdy fencing and some increased security measures, but (as I learned in my recent trip to New Orleans) those homes have a lot of potential and a lot of chracter. It would still be close to work and downtown, so time wouldn't be anymore of an issue. If I ever tire of Broadmoor, Third Ward will be kept on the table as an option. And hey ya never know... this section of Third Ward may be hip for the Millennials. I might be able to turn a huge profit on some little places in the neighborhood to them!

I know your neighborhood well. Crunch does too. It is a mix, and it is hip. It was not always a mix, nor was it always hip. Things have really changed dramatically in the last five years or so, and they won't stop changing until the demographic character and housing prices mirror that of the Houston Heights. I realize that you don't see yourself as playing any kind of role in this process and probably feel pissed off that I'd even suggest it...but it's true. As an early adopter, you're paving the way for Squaresville. The only thing that makes you special relative to those that'll inflict the death blow is that you'll have a memory of what it was.

Ya know it's funny... you'd think after nabbing 2 degrees in music and dramatic performance, I'd know a little something about "playing roles". As best as I understand it, this is the role of the 27 year old. Still paying off that last credit card and student loans, making a way for myself in the world, and not ready to settle into one opinion, one stereotype, or one kind of expectation for my surroundings. I'm not pissed at all, in fact I rather enjoy this "role". And to me, if the East End is revived over the next few years, I'll be proud of that. House prices going up (in this case) is a good thing because people are starting to take pride in their neighborhood, and they want to show that it is worth something to them. Granted, that means the "poor will be pushed out" for the most part, but that view is a 2-sided street as well. Better neighborhoods mean more income, and more income means more ways to help the city's poor. It would be awesome to have more groups like the Open Door Mission or SEARCH that are here in the East End as well. And ya, if I am headed to Squaresville, might as well sit back and enjoy the ride. If I don't, then I'll miss out on all the cool stories to tell about "what it used to be like" when I'm 57. Even now, I'm working on a compendium of stories for the next generation... "What life was like BEFORE the internet".

No. Never allow yourself to feel shame. Shame is the reverse of arbitrage. It is when you make yourself feel worse for purposes that do not benefit anybody. It is the worst kind of state of mind.

Enjoy what you have, live for it and for yourself, and accept that others will do the same. The neighborhood will change on account of the others (and upon the presence of people like you, who the others are attracted to), whose values differ from yours, yet you will have memories of living in this moment in time. They can't take that away. For a time, you will no doubt self-righteously hold your status as an early adopter over the heads of newcomers, and you can either revel in your artificially-generated sense of self-importance--or you can find a different neighborhood similar to this one and do it all over again--or you may choose to enjoy a different kind of urban experience. It is your decision, and you should revel in it.

...but, at the same time, it is ignorant to deny that your own presence in this neighborhood isn't effecting the destruction of the qualities that you claim to hold dear. People like you are using it up. That is fine. Have fun! It is but one more example of a neighborhood which shall be tamed by a generation of idealistic self-important youth. The latter part of the Baby Boomers had Montrose, Gen X had the Heights, Gen Y will have the East End.

Again... opera singer here... shame leads to Drama, and I LOVE Drama! To me, that "deconstruction" is the fabric of life. We all have to meet in the middle, grab onto the carosel, and make some memories along the way. Who knows what Houston will be in 20 years... River Oaks may become a crime-infested ghetto. We just don't know yet. But what I do know is what I love about Houston... things do not sit stagnant here. I'm overjoyed at the Rail Line and the potential that it brings for the East End. Come 2013, I may change my tune and think it SUCKS, but right now, this is my song, and I'm a-gon' ta sing it. And as for those neighborhoods that the other generations "fixed up"... hats off to them, b/c Montrose and the Heights are some of the coolest areas of the city.

[TheNiche]

Totheskies, you and I aren't really all that different. We couldn't come from more different professional backgrounds and clearly do disagree (sometimes vehemently) on the little stuff, but as far as our own individualized preferences, we're pretty much simpatico.

N Judah, where's the data to back up your unfounded assertions?

[N Judah]

weren't you the one who brought the gen y up?

no

N Judah, where's the data to back up your unfounded assertions?

who says i need any? and what makes you think my assertions are unfounded?

[TheNiche]

who says i need any? and what makes you think my assertions are unfounded?

I say you need to support your position with facts. The notion that Houston has lost its lead in terms of cost of living doesn't pass the sniff test. For further details as to why I take issue with your assertions, go back and read my earlier posts.

...or do you intend just to troll about again, making all kinds of ridiculous assertions without any intent of supporting them when challenged, instead prodding other (gullible) people to explain over and over and over why they think you're wrong, apparently reading only every other sentence of what they write before dismissing their opinion as different from yours and therefore wrong? Somehow, I suspect that this is the case.

[N Judah]

I say you need to support your position with facts. The notion that Houston has lost its lead in terms of cost of living doesn't pass the sniff test.

Well, irrespective of what you think, other cities are now relatively cheaper. This doesn't necessarily preclude the East End from becoming that "Gen Y destination" that you (and other speculators) are hoping for, so there's really no need to take any of this so personally. OK?

[TheNiche]

Well, irrespective of what you think, other cities are now relatively cheaper. This doesn't necessarily preclude the East End from becoming that "Gen Y destination" that you (and other speculators) are hoping for, so there's really no need to take any of this so personally. OK?

Which cities? What is their capacity to lure Gen Y? Is it such that Houston is at any kind of disadvantage?

[samagon]

no

who says i need any? and what makes you think my assertions are unfounded?

If you want people to take you seriously, you need to have proof to corroborate your position.

If you can produce facts to back up your assertions, people may actually agree with what you are saying. It is easy.

I disagree with The Niche in regards to light rail vs other forms of mass transit, but unless I can come up with proof of what I think, I can't expect him to see things my way. Since all I have is my casual observations, I can't do much except agree to disagree.

So, the onus is on you. Provide data to back up your claims, or continue to have people disagree with your position.

Hell, you can even give your ideas as to why you hold your position and they may provide facts to show why you are mistaken.

[TheNiche]

Hell, you can even give your ideas as to why you hold your position and they may provide facts to show why you are mistaken.

In the spirit of things, here's a resource to compare various items as part of a person's cost of living, sourced from the ACCRA Cost of Living Index. Have at it!

I don't have access to Reis apartment data anymore, but if there's someone out there that has it, it may be interesting to compare price points in Houston with the likes of Portland, Seattle, San Francisco, New York City, Washington D.C., or Boston. I don't doubt that effective rents are down in markets that are supposed to be attractive to Gen Y, but it would truly shock me if N Judah was correct that we've lost our cost of living advantage.