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Galveston Sinking?


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Up Close: Is Galveston Island disappearing?

10:00 PM CST on Thursday, December 2, 2004

By Dave Fehling / 11 News

Is Galveston Island disappearing? There have been some startling findings about the sea stealing the shoreline.

KHOU-TV

Current predictions say in 50 years the Galveston shoreline could recede past West Beach, all the way to the FM 3005.

When hurricanes hit Galveston, it seems the seawall is all that keeps the island from washing into the Gulf. Because where the wall ends, the destruction begins.

For years, people have watched the beach disappear -- the sea rising, the shoreline moving behind their beach houses.

Scientists say it has been going on for thousands of years.

"Galveston Island will be smaller, no doubt about it," said Professor John Anderson.

The big question is how much smaller, and how fast will it shrink?

That is where the professor got a surprise, "I'd say far more dramatic than certainly I expected it to be," Anderson said.

A team of scientists from Rice University found that the sea level could be rising here along the Texas Gulf Coast at a rate not seen for several thousand years. And what that could mean for Galveston Island over the next several decades got our attention.

Alex Simms and Kristy Milliken are graduate students at Rice.

"These are shorelines, they are naturally constantly changing," said Milliken.

But they wanted to find out how much they might change this century when sea levels are expected to start rising faster because of global warming.

They went along the coast in a little barge and drilled into the Gulf floor.

"So how old is this dirt?" 11 News' reporter Dave Fehling asked. "Between 8 to 9,000 years old," Milliken responded.

Analyzing the dirt told them when rising Gulf waters covered it. In essence, how fast those waters overtook the land.

They found that happened not at a steady rate over thousands of years, but rather in sudden bursts.

In just a century, bays dramatically increased in size, barrier islands disappeared.

"This is what it looked like about 8,000 years ago." Alex Simms said pointing to a computer screen. "And within 100 years it changed to this."

The students found one burst of bay expansion about 5,000 years ago was caused by a rise in sea level eerily similar to what's predicted for this century.

Their work may be an early warning that the Texas Gulf Coast could change faster than modern man has ever seen.

"We draw that line in the sand, we say we want the shoreline here. But naturally ... it's always changing and that's just something we need to understand and deal with," said Milliken.

Professor John Anderson said his students' work could cause a rethinking of how fast Galveston Island is shrinking.

Current predictions say in 50 years the shoreline could recede past West Beach, all the way to the FM 3005.

"It's hard to convince people this will continue into the future," said Anderson. And continue at a rate maybe faster than anyone thought.

The most practical use for the research may be for making public policy.

There is a long running debate over the wisdom of allowing developers to build homes on land that in a matter of decades will be gone. :(

http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/kho...ay.30f90eb.html

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