Is Real Estate In The Heights Really This Hot

[DianeTX]

THANK YOU for the deletes! 

[SilverJK]

two pages of foundation related topic don't really fit in to the thread either... 

 

 

I definitely think the market has cooled off a little... there are a few houses near me for sale that are asking about what I would have suspected  them to get early in the summer that haven't sold yet.  I have also seen a few houses reduce their prices lately (this wasn't happening at all earlier). 

[Marksmu]

I concur the market has stabilized.  It reached its peak in May, those houses closed in June/July and by mid June, early July it was cooling off. 

[s3mh]

http://www.greenwoodking.com/images/pdf/marketreport7.pdf

 

Not enough detail to tell anything about the demand side, but you can clearly see all throughout GK's market area a major decline in inventory and a major price hike as a result over the past year.  With an average price pushing through the mid 400s, the Heights will naturally see a smaller pool of buyers because there are way more people who can afford to pay under 400k than over.  So, a plateau would be expected at some point.  But if inventory continues to tighten, prices will continue to move up.  The new development in and around 19th street will help take away some sticker shock for people looking at the neighborhood. 

[OkieEric]

http://www.greenwoodking.com/images/pdf/marketreport7.pdf

 

Not enough detail to tell anything about the demand side, but you can clearly see all throughout GK's market area a major decline in inventory and a major price hike as a result over the past year.  With an average price pushing through the mid 400s, the Heights will naturally see a smaller pool of buyers because there are way more people who can afford to pay under 400k than over.  So, a plateau would be expected at some point.  But if inventory continues to tighten, prices will continue to move up.  The new development in and around 19th street will help take away some sticker shock for people looking at the neighborhood. 

 

I've also used Judy Thompson's website over the years to track market conditions:

 

http://westurealestate.com/marketWatchAllAreasSummary.htm

 

Anyway, in general I've noticed a bit of cooling off as well in checking har listings, but as others have pointed out it certainly makes sense for this time of year

[SilverJK]

So people who can't afford it... will flock to places like Morrison Heights...

[s3mh]

So people who can't afford it... will flock to places like Morrison Heights...

 

I know you are being sarcastic, but I did wonder on that thread whether Houston will ever see a trend of condo conversions.  I think there is still a lot of land where you can build town homes in the high 200/low 300 range (east side, 3rd ward, etc.).  But once that land starts to get scarce, you may just see a real condo market emerge inside the loop. 

[laiall]

I agree, I think the market has peaked and will start to level off. The prices are approaching West U, but the Heights doesn't have the school system yet like West U does to deserve pricing on the same level.

[OkieEric]

I agree, I think the market has peaked and will start to level off. The prices are approaching West U, but the Heights doesn't have the school system yet like West U does to deserve pricing on the same level.

 

I haven't seen anything suggesting the prices are anywhere close to approaching West U.  Actually, I think I've seen several times that housing in Montrose is actually pricier than the Heights, but of course both areas are fairly large so things can vary quite a bit within each

[laiall]

OkieEric, on 04 Sept 2013 - 7:11 PM, said:

 

I haven't seen anything suggesting the prices are anywhere close to approaching West U...

 

Heights:

 

$300/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/702-Omar-Houston-77009-6645_HAR47490461.htm

 

$353/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/910-Redan-St-Houston-77009-6040_HAR28988478.htm

 

$369/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/1015-Fugate-St-Houston-77009-5013_HAR33583074.htm

 

 

 

West U:

 

$265/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/3935-Marlowe-St-West-University-77005-2045_HAR28400842.htm

 

$322/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/3921-University-Blvd-Houston-77005-2803_HAR52279754.htm

 

$344/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/4015-Villanova-West-University-77005_HAR28457840.htm

 

 

Made sure to choose properties in both West U and Heights Proper. No cherry-picking, I also made sure lot sizes were relatively close.

 

I rest my case.

[crunchtastic]

Very instructive; thanks for doing this. Not that I can afford Heights or West U,  but as a resident of The Perpetual  Next Cool Neighborhood, it def provides some perspective.

[laiall]

Very instructive; thanks for doing this. Not that I can afford Heights or West U,  but as a resident of The Perpetual  Next Cool Neighborhood, it def provides some perspective.

 

Crunch, I see you are in Eastwood. That is a great neighborhood from an investment standpoint and gentrification is well under way. I suspect when the Metrorail line opens up, there will be an increased influx of working professionals into the area and that area will blow up. 

[OkieEric]

Heights:

 

$300/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/702-Omar-Houston-77009-6645_HAR47490461.htm

 

$353/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/910-Redan-St-Houston-77009-6040_HAR28988478.htm

 

$369/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/1015-Fugate-St-Houston-77009-5013_HAR33583074.htm

 

 

 

West U:

 

$265/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/3935-Marlowe-St-West-University-77005-2045_HAR28400842.htm

 

$322/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/3921-University-Blvd-Houston-77005-2803_HAR52279754.htm

 

$344/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/4015-Villanova-West-University-77005_HAR28457840.htm

 

 

Made sure to choose properties in both West U and Heights Proper. No cherry-picking, I also made sure lot sizes were relatively close.

 

I rest my case.

 

Price / sq ft is one metric that has some definite flaws to it, plus you are showing us a small sample of asking prices (and note that all 3 West U ones are pending).  One of the houses you listed for the Height was shown as < 1K sq ft.  Seriously?  Do you think if that house was twice as big they would get anywhere close to twice the price?  If someone is paying $500Kish for a house in West U it's a teardown, that's certainly not the case in the Heights.  Lot value alone in West U is probably $500K+ nowdays.  Seriously, go filter on West U and see what is available for < $600K.  Now try $700K, $800K

 

Edit:  It's not like I'm a real estate expert, but it's pretty logical that when your land value is a high % of value of the house (as is the case in all 6 of your examples except maybe the first) I think $/sq ft is extremely misleading

[brian0123]

Those examples prove what I was saying earlier, the Heights is a joke for prices. $400k for a 2/1 shack that needs work with worse schools and a worse location?

[OkieEric]

Those examples prove what I was saying earlier, the Heights is a joke for prices. $400k for a 2/1 shack that needs work with worse schools and a worse location?

 

I'd still argue Montrose is generally priced higher.  The only thing you will find under $400K in Montrose anymore are teardowns or townhomes and maybe a couple of worn out duplexes

[s3mh]

Heights:

 

$300/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/702-Omar-Houston-77009-6645_HAR47490461.htm

 

$353/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/910-Redan-St-Houston-77009-6040_HAR28988478.htm

 

$369/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/1015-Fugate-St-Houston-77009-5013_HAR33583074.htm

 

 

 

West U:

 

$265/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/3935-Marlowe-St-West-University-77005-2045_HAR28400842.htm

 

$322/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/3921-University-Blvd-Houston-77005-2803_HAR52279754.htm

 

$344/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/4015-Villanova-West-University-77005_HAR28457840.htm

 

 

Made sure to choose properties in both West U and Heights Proper. No cherry-picking, I also made sure lot sizes were relatively close.

 

I rest my case.

You have cherry picked the snot out of that list from West U.  Those properties are the exception in West U.  Currently on the market in West U, there are 9 houses over 2 mil, 25 over 1 mil, 9 over 900k, 3 over 800k and 8 from 0-799k.  Sure, it may be possible to pluck a tear down away from a builder in West U, but the vast majority of the housing in West U is 1 mil+. 

[laiall]

You have cherry picked the snot out of that list from West U.  Those properties are the exception in West U.  Currently on the market in West U, there are 9 houses over 2 mil, 25 over 1 mil, 9 over 900k, 3 over 800k and 8 from 0-799k.  Sure, it may be possible to pluck a tear down away from a builder in West U, but the vast majority of the housing in West U is 1 mil+. 

 

s3mh, reading comprehension, please read my post a little more carefully.

 

Houses over 2 mil, 1 mil, etc are on larger plots of land and/or are larger in sq ft. To get a good comparison I chose properties with comparable plots of land and building sq ft and made sure to choose properties within the best sections of each neighborhood.

[laiall]

I'd still argue Montrose is generally priced higher.  The only thing you will find under $400K in Montrose anymore are teardowns or townhomes and maybe a couple of worn out duplexes

 

You don't get to make up your own facts.

 

Montrose:

 

$300/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/1223-Jackson-Bl-Houston-77006-1101_HAR84444417.htm

 

$296/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/1623-Marshall-St-Houston-77006-4121_HAR20477874.htm

 

$273/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/1108-Bomar-St-Houston-77006-1224_HAR5282944.htm

[laiall]

Price / sq ft is one metric that has some definite flaws to it, plus you are showing us a small sample of asking prices (and note that all 3 West U ones are pending).  One of the houses you listed for the Height was shown as < 1K sq ft.  Seriously?  Do you think if that house was twice as big they would get anywhere close to twice the price?  If someone is paying $500Kish for a house in West U it's a teardown, that's certainly not the case in the Heights.  Lot value alone in West U is probably $500K+ nowdays.  Seriously, go filter on West U and see what is available for < $600K.  Now try $700K, $800K

 

Edit:  It's not like I'm a real estate expert, but it's pretty logical that when your land value is a high % of value of the house (as is the case in all 6 of your examples except maybe the first) I think $/sq ft is extremely misleading

 

First of all, I never said Heights was the same price as West U. If you go back and read my post again you'll see I said the prices are "approaching" West U and used it as a justification for why I think the prices in the Heights are going to level off:

 

"The prices are approaching West U, but the Heights doesn't have the school system yet like West U does to deserve pricing on the same level."

 

 

Here are some larger homes in the Heights:

 

$304/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/520-Omar-St-Houston-77009-6641_HAR37201506.htm

 

$271/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/423-Bayland-Av-Houston-77009-6603_HAR25958364.htm

 

$270/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/1032-Highland-St-Houston-77009-6515_HAR81010554.htm

[OkieEric]

You don't get to make up your own facts.

 

Montrose:

 

$300/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/1223-Jackson-Bl-Houston-77006-1101_HAR84444417.htm

 

$296/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/1623-Marshall-St-Houston-77006-4121_HAR20477874.htm

 

$273/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/1108-Bomar-St-Houston-77006-1224_HAR5282944.htm

 

Yes, your 3 house sample of the bottom of the market in Montrose completely refutes what I said

 

1623 Marshall is touted as a tear down (build later!) and 1108 Bomar is 1300 sq ft with no garage.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's a goner, too, at least at some point in the near future.  $/sq ft doesn't mean anything on these

 

There are townhouses going in Montrose in $600K range, I recently sold my 80's remodeled 2 bed/2.5 bath townhouse for not much less than the price ranges you are showing.  Of course, it always depends on the area you are looking at.  Here's some of the pricier new construction (with your favorite $/sq ft metric included):

 

$323/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/dispSearch.cfm?mlnum=98123400&v=s

$322/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/dispSearch.cfm?mlnum=20440247&v=s

$300/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/dispSearch.cfm?mlnum=70446739&v=s

[s3mh]

s3mh, reading comprehension, please read my post a little more carefully.

 

Houses over 2 mil, 1 mil, etc are on larger plots of land and/or are larger in sq ft. To get a good comparison I chose properties with comparable plots of land and building sq ft and made sure to choose properties within the best sections of each neighborhood.

 

But you are choosing properties in West U that are very rare and are just a broken AC unit away from being a teardown and comparing them to properties in the Heights that are abundant.  Thus, even if you are right that there is better value in West U, the fact is that those properties are so scarce that it is practically a moot point. 

[laiall]

But you are choosing properties in West U that are very rare and are just a broken AC unit away from being a teardown and comparing them to properties in the Heights that are abundant.  Thus, even if you are right that there is better value in West U, the fact is that those properties are so scarce that it is practically a moot point. 

 

Not going to argue with you about West U being a better value at a similar price/sq ft. Heights middle and high schools need to vastly improve before I would change my mind.

 

"...broken AC unit away from being a teardown.." is completely inaccurate btw, 2 of those 3 properties are fully renovated and the $322/sq ft one is half way there.

 

I'm glad you read my post in more detail and came to the same conclusion that the Heights prices are getting a little too close to West U prices and thus are overpriced for what you are getting.

[laiall]

Yes, your 3 house sample of the bottom of the market in Montrose completely refutes what I said

 

1623 Marshall is touted as a tear down (build later!) and 1108 Bomar is 1300 sq ft with no garage.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's a goner, too, at least at some point in the near future.  $/sq ft doesn't mean anything on these

 

There are townhouses going in Montrose in $600K range, I recently sold my 80's remodeled 2 bed/2.5 bath townhouse for not much less than the price ranges you are showing.  Of course, it always depends on the area you are looking at.  Here's some of the pricier new construction (with your favorite $/sq ft metric included):

 

$323/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/dispSearch.cfm?mlnum=98123400&v=s

$322/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/dispSearch.cfm?mlnum=20440247&v=s

$300/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/dispSearch.cfm?mlnum=70446739&v=s

 

Fair enough, even though I disagree with you that those homes are the "bottom" of the market and I hope you realize the price/sq ft of your examples are maybe a $20/sq ft on avg difference from the ones I cited, I'll drive my point home by using your own examples coupled with some similarly sized (building and lot) homes in the Heights to show you that you are 100% wrong. 

 

$300/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/726-E-7th-1/2-St-Houston-77007-1708_HAR19889954.htm

 

$388/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/515-Ridge-St-Houston-77009-7517_HAR31762194.htm

 

$418/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/601-E-16th-Houston-77008-4401_HAR63199432.htm

[OkieEric]

Fair enough, even though I disagree with you that those homes are the "bottom" of the market and I hope you realize the price/sq ft of your examples are maybe a $20/sq ft on avg difference from the ones I cited, I'll drive my point home by using your own examples coupled with some similarly sized (building and lot) homes in the Heights to show you that you are 100% wrong. 

 

$300/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/726-E-7th-1/2-St-Houston-77007-1708_HAR19889954.htm

 

$388/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/515-Ridge-St-Houston-77009-7517_HAR31762194.htm

 

$418/sq ft - http://search.har.com/engine/601-E-16th-Houston-77008-4401_HAR63199432.htm

 

OK, enough of this contest.  Yes, maybe they are within range of what you quoted but that doesn't make your examples any less valid.  Your method of comparing home prices between parts of town is flawed - but if doing it that way helps you sleep at night, then so be it.  Those earlier examples were driven by land value, not $/sq ft.  I'm not sure how else this can be explained  

 

I can nit pick your examples (that last listing is insanely high) and try to find higher $/sq ft offerings in Montrose but what's the point, a $400/sq ft example probably doesn't exist.  My comment was that Montrose pricing is generally higher.  That's not to say you aren't going to find some very high priced homes in certain areas of each.  There are a total of 10 single family homes/multi-family in Montrose under $400K, so in terms of what we are comparing here I would say that yes, the examples you gave are the bottom of the market.  I don't even live there anymore so I don't really don't care either way.  But I'd say this document posted the other day may offer some guidance and is probably a little more conclusive than this random house picking

 

http://www.greenwoodking.com/images/pdf/marketreport7.pdf

 

It's not perfect, but I think it substantiates my views.  Or at least proves I'm not 100% wrong

[laiall]

OK, enough of this contest.  Yes, maybe they are within range of what you quoted but that doesn't make your examples any less valid.  Your method of comparing home prices between parts of town is flawed - but if doing it that way helps you sleep at night, then so be it.  Those earlier examples were driven by land value, not $/sq ft.  I'm not sure how else this can be explained  

 

I can nit pick your examples (that last listing is insanely high) and try to find higher $/sq ft offerings in Montrose but what's the point, a $400/sq ft example probably doesn't exist.  My comment was that Montrose pricing is generally higher.  That's not to say you aren't going to find some very high priced homes in certain areas of each.  There are a total of 10 single family homes/multi-family in Montrose under $400K, so in terms of what we are comparing here I would say that yes, the examples you gave are the bottom of the market.  I don't even live there anymore so I don't really don't care either way.  But I'd say this document posted the other day may offer some guidance and is probably a little more conclusive than this random house picking

 

http://www.greenwoodking.com/images/pdf/marketreport7.pdf

 

It's not perfect, but I think it substantiates my views.  Or at least proves I'm not 100% wrong

 

Eric, give me a break man. Your link differentiates single family homes from townhomes for Montrose but lumps them all together for the Heights. Unlike your link, I've made a direct apples to apples comparison between the two areas today; I have made sure there are similar sizes of land and similar sizes of home. 

 

It's not a contest. The facts have been presented and you have nothing solid to substantiate your claims while I have provided ample examples to refute them. I even used the links you yourself posted to demonstrate to you.

 

There is nothing left to debate here.

[OkieEric]

Eric, give me a break man. Your link differentiates single family homes from townhomes for Montrose but lumps them all together for the Heights. Unlike your link, I've made a direct apples to apples comparison between the two areas today; I have made sure there are similar sizes of land and similar sizes of home. 

 

It's not a contest. The facts have been presented and you have nothing solid to substantiate your claims while I have provided ample examples to refute them. I even used the links you yourself posted to demonstrate to you.

 

It's broken out for Montrose because obviously there the ratio of townhouses to single family homes is much higher and thus gives a clearer basis for comparison.  You can lump them together if you want by taking a weighted average and it shows they are essentially the same (albeit Montrose still slightly higher).  But of course nearly half of the Montrose properties are townhouses

 

There are probably other sources to use for comparison out there, I dunno.  Either way it's a much more objective analysis with a larger sample (all sold houses) and more importantly, it's based on actual sales prices rather than picking a very small subset of house list prices from har

[laiall]

It's broken out for Montrose because obviously there the ratio of townhouses to single family homes is much higher and thus gives a clearer basis for comparison.  You can lump them together if you want by taking a weighted average and it shows they are essentially the same (albeit Montrose still slightly higher).  But of course nearly half of the Montrose properties are townhouses

 

There are probably other sources to use for comparison out there, I dunno.  Either way it's a much more objective analysis with a larger sample (all sold houses) and more importantly, it's based on actual sales prices rather than picking a very small subset of house list prices from har

 

So, what you meant to say in your original posts were:

 

"Actually, I think I've seen several times that housing in Montrose is actually pricier than virtually the same as the Heights, but of course both areas are fairly large so things can vary quite a bit within each."

 

"I'd still argue agree Montrose is generally priced higher the same."

 

 

Unless what you meant by your original statements was the 0.4% difference between the two neighborhoods per your link. I think we can agree that they are both awesome neighborhoods and comparably priced.

[OkieEric]

Unless what you meant by your original statements was the 0.4% difference between the two neighborhoods. I think we can agree that they are both awesome neighborhoods and comparably priced

 

Agreed.  FWIW even though I loved living in Montrose for the same price I'd go for a house in the Heights over a townhome in Montrose any day.  There are really only a handful of neighborhoods I'd consider living in Montrose with a family whereas in general the Heights seems to be more family friendly.  There is just a location factor to Montrose that is hard to beat

 

I agree with Brian that there are better values on the south side, at least for now.  I guess "value" is kind of the opposite of what we are discussing here, though

[laiall]

Agreed.  FWIW even though I loved living in Montrose for the same price I'd go for a house in the Heights over a townhome in Montrose any day.  There are really only a handful of neighborhoods I'd consider living in Montrose with a family whereas in general the Heights seems to be more family friendly.  There is just a location factor to Montrose that is hard to beat

 

I agree with Brian that there are better values on the south side, at least for now.  I guess "value" is kind of the opposite of what we are discussing here, though

 

Finally, I agree w/ everything you said!

 

I love Montrose as well and would be just as happy if I had ended up there.

[s3mh]

Not going to argue with you about West U being a better value at a similar price/sq ft. Heights middle and high schools need to vastly improve before I would change my mind.

 

"...broken AC unit away from being a teardown.." is completely inaccurate btw, 2 of those 3 properties are fully renovated and the $322/sq ft one is half way there.

 

I'm glad you read my post in more detail and came to the same conclusion that the Heights prices are getting a little too close to West U prices and thus are overpriced for what you are getting.

 

In markets like West U and Tanglewood, fully renovated means nothing when it comes to whether the original housing stock will bought to demo or to live in.  Someone looking to build a 2-3 mil house in the neighborhood will not blink at paying 500-600k for a lot.

 

There are currently over thirty properties in West U on the market for over 1 mil.  There is nothing under $400k that is a single family home.  You are making broad statements about West U v. the Heights based on a very, very narrow segment of the market that is still expensive (all of your examples are over 600k) and very hard to find. 

 

All you have done is bought into the realtor's view of the world that price per square foot is all that matters.  Someone who is looking at spending 300-500k on a house has a lot of options in the Heights but has no options in West U.  Thus, your argument is really nothing more than an exercise in false real estate market logic that has no foundation in reality.  In short, if you cannot afford to pay over 600k, price per square foot is completely meaningless.