Neighborhood Life Cycles

[VicMan]

"I don't know how you can say neighborhoods between 610 and Beltway are slums in the making. Absurd. So I guess all of those homes in Memorial and Tanglewood will be filed with vagrants soon?? I needed a good laugh today."

Most, not all. Memorial is still middle class but by neighborhoods between 610 and the Beltway, he means places like Alief and Old Spring Branch.

[Casual Observer]

Alief is outside the beltway though.

[Guest danax]

Most, not all. Memorial is still middle class but by neighborhoods between 610 and the Beltway, he means places like Alief and Old Spring Branch.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Right. It was a bit absurd to assume he was including the obvious posh areas in the said band.

The "2nd ring" area, between the loop and the belt, are mostly middle class homes built in the 50s to 80s, which in a general way, put's them at middle age and ripe for a theoretical decline phase.

The northern 2nd ring is already in decline, parts near Eastex and 59 are being developed, but that constitutes a birth cycle from, for the most part, a combination of vacant land and previous sparse housing, which, as some of the last of our early rural housing, would represent the death phase.

The eastern 2nd ring, East Houston, 5th Ward, Channelview etc. is already old and tired and not facing immediate redevelopment so will likely remain in it's present state until traffic driven demand and lack of available vacant land begins to pull the plug on what's currently there and rebirth the area in a likely more evolved incarnation.

The 290 corridor, Inwood, Spring Branch, Jersey Village etc, while not too bad now, are aging and, as such, will become less and less desirable to a lot of people. So, those homes could be just starting to enter into declining phases which could last for decades.

South /Southwest 2nd ring, a lot of you have much more info than I on these neighborhoods but it seems like only certain 50s-60s neighborhoods are getting better, for right now anyway. I think that has more to do with the housing stock being spacious enough and with enough "cool factor" to attract more upscale outsiders. So there's another section that might escape death.

So, I agree with Jhall in that this band of neighborhoods is likely to be our "ghetto ring" for a time. Reasons being the combination of 1) the aging housing stock, 2) the immediate lack of development pressure and 3) the already declined state of a lot of these areas. Also, with a large Hispanic immigrant population predicted to be on the way, old, simple houses have been traditional starting points for lives in "El Norte".

[VicMan]

I never knew that Jersey Village was aging - I thought it was about to bustle with development and go over 10,000.

By the way, is Jersey Village High School within the city limits?

[Guest danax]

I never knew that Jersey Village was aging - I thought it was about to bustle with development and go over 10,000.

By the way, is Jersey Village High School within the city limits?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I admit to not having been up there for years. I was using it as a point of reference to that general area as I couldn't think of any of the other neighborhoods nearby, like that area up by the horse track.

Last I was up there the homes seemed mostly from the 60s-70s. Are they adding new neighborhoods? Since this topic is a generalization of factors leading to neighborhood changes, I'm leaping to an assumption that, once these homes lose their original owners that are left, they will be less desirable to middle class couples than newer homes farther out, therefore attracting lower and lower income residents.

As the 290 commute continues to thicken with time, that area could start looking more and more attractive to young couples, even if the houses are older and "only" 1500 sq ft or so. Maybe it's already happened, I don't know.

[rps324]

One factor that will influence the "rebirth" patterns are the artificial geographic barriers. These barriers create a sort of "levee" to rebirth patterns, stopping it in it's tracks(if only temporarily) and re-directing it in another direction.

For example, the northerly march of rejuvenation from the Heights/Timbergrove thru Garden Oaks/Shepherd Park Plaza hits a wall at Acres Homes.

Not to slam Acres Homes, it provides affordable housing and fills a need, but instead of being significantly influenced by the gentrification of it's southerly neighbors, I predict the pattern of gentrification will continue to flow around it through Oak Forest and probably eventually spreading up Antoine to Inwood. Replacing the stagnation of the Antoine area with rebirth & leaving Acres Homes bipassed & generally unaffected.

The area along Bellaire Blvd. between the city of Bellaire and Hillcroft is another example. The westerly march of rebirth that started in West U and went across Bellaire hits a wall about Chimney Rock and is forced south. Had that barrier area not been there, I think Sharpstown's fortunes would be very different by now. Instead I predict you will see Sharpstown really gain strength when the Westbury, Maplewood & Robindell rejuvenation buyers are priced out of those areas and are forced to go to the next closest neighborhood.

The wild card is whether or not rebirth patterns will stay in an incremental fashion, going from one popular neighborhood and then spreading to the immediate neighboring communities, or if it will "leap-frog" much like new development. Skipping areas to jump over to something more desirable. While the patterns of rebirth seem to have been pretty incremental, I think we are now seeing some "leap-frogging," especially on the east side. Lindale Park, Eastwood, Idylwood, Glenbrook, etc. are all areas that pretty much lack gentrifying neighbors to feed off of & must spark rebirth themselves based on their own combination of location, desirable architecture, good deals, etc. Once firmly established, neighboring communities will then be able to benefit from their spill over. I think we may be seeing that already with Forest Hill's proximity to Idylwood, and Broadmoor and Lawndale benefiting from Eastwood's increased popularity.

[Trophy Property]

an aside - an old neighbor of mine has lived in her house since the fifties.  she can barely afford the taxes on her fixed income, so she will have to move soon.  and she gets fliers on her door EVERY day from developers.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If the taxes are her biggest concern she could alway do a reverse mortgage and get enough to cover her taxes for the next 5-10 years. If she is over 65 (I think that is the age) she can also get her value frozen !!!

[klein]

You forgot white flight and black flight.

[Guest danax]

You forgot white flight and black flight.

I would say those would be potential causes for cycle changes, but they don't necessarily mean a change. I think we're nearing the day, if not already there, where white flight in certain nabes doesn't mean the beginning of a down cycle. Parts of middle class portions of Spring east of the 45 seem to be experiencing that now.

[KatieDidIt]

We bought outside the Beltway, I wouldn't consider our area "posh." Most of the houses were built in the 60's, about half look ratty on the outside, many look normal on the exterior and like a showcase home on the inside. They are starting to knock down many and build McMansions for over a million lately. Even though I don't like the styles, I guess that puts us in a rebirth cycle? Otherwise I guess we fit in the term decline/ghetto. Its an upper middle class to lower upper class ghetto though. But I love it here so I guess I'm ghetto fabulous.

[missmsry]

We bought outside the Beltway, I wouldn't consider our area "posh." Most of the houses were built in the 60's, about half look ratty on the outside, many look normal on the exterior and like a showcase home on the inside. They are starting to knock down many and build McMansions for over a million lately. Even though I don't like the styles, I guess that puts us in a rebirth cycle? Otherwise I guess we fit in the term decline/ghetto. Its an upper middle class to lower upper class ghetto though. But I love it here so I guess I'm ghetto fabulous.

So, you live in Gaywood?

[KatieDidIt]

So, you live in Gaywood?

No, a little west in Yorkshire. The neighborhood is on its 6th New/Restructured construction in two-three years. The first few are very nice and go with feel of the neighborhood. You really have to look at them to see that they are totally revamped. The only way you can knock down in here is if there is some huge problem with the house. Otherwise, as long as you leave the slab and a portion of the roof line, you can totally rebuild it. The Texas Hill Country style seems to be popular to plop down in a neighborhood of Southern Colonials. Just a little east of here, in Wilchester, the spec new builds are starting.

We have a majority of the 65+ set in here, which tends to lead to a little decline in the appearance of the houses. Now they're as kept up as nice as their owners can keep them, and they are from from junky. Just many have a "tired" look to them. But there is starting to be a turn over to younger families that want bigger yards and more neighborhood, which is nice for us.

I liked Gaywood, but my husband wouldn't move into a neighborhood that had open culverts and no city drainage. That totally knocked the Villages out for us too, not that we could afford it at today's prices.

Edited March 2, 2008 by KatieDidIt

[TAK]

I predict the pattern of gentrification will continue to flow around it through Oak Forest and probably eventually spreading up Antoine to Inwood. Replacing the stagnation of the Antoine area with rebirth....

Dear Real Estate Deity...

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let RPS be your prophet... and work fast.

Sincerely,

Inwood Homeowner and (soon to be) Investor.

[houstongal]

"I don't know how you can say neighborhoods between 610 and Beltway are slums in the making. Absurd. So I guess all of those homes in Memorial and Tanglewood will be filed with vagrants soon?? I needed a good laugh today."

Most, not all. Memorial is still middle class but by neighborhoods between 610 and the Beltway, he means places like Alief and Old Spring Branch.

Does Alief not start after the beltway?

[TAK]

alief is definitely outside the beltway.

having said that, there is a lot of houston (most) that is OTL (outside the loop) and ITB (inside the beltway). therefore, a lot of that area may look like slums to a lot of people. ride down any major freeway, other than katy, and hop off an exit between the loop and the belt... i wouldn't call them slums. i'd call them average or blue collar. i live in one - inwood forest... too many apartments.