Population Growth Trivia

[TheNiche]

The most recent U.S. Census estimates of population growth put the Houston MSA at the top of the list. If the year-over-year rate of population growth in Houston were maintained at the current rate of 187,380 per year and other cities also experienced straight-line growth at the same rate as in the previous year:

• Houston would surpass the present population of Philadelphia next month (Jan. 2008).
  
• Houston would surpass the future population of Philadelphia in four months (Mar. 2008).
  
• Houston would surpass the present population of Chicago in 20 years (2027).
  
• Houston would surpass the future population of Chicago in 30 years (2037).
  
• Houston would surpass the future population of Los Angeles in 43 years (2050).
  
• Houston would surpass the future population of Dallas in 71 years (2078).
  
• Houston would surpass the future population of New York City in 72 years (2079).
  
• In 2079 (possibly within my lifetime), the population would be 19.2 million, and Houston would be the largest city in the United States.
  
• The next largest cities would be Dallas and New York City (all at about 19.2 million), Atlanta (17.2 million), Phoenix (15.8 million), Los Angeles (14.1 million), and then Chicago (13.8 million).
  
• Austin and San Antonio would each be about the size of Houston at present, totalling about 11.7 million.
  

This ain't gonna happen--nothing happens in a straight line--and it'd be a gross violation of the rank-size rule, but I thought that it'd be interesting to consider.

Edited December 14, 2007 by TheNiche

[musicman]

we passed philadelphia a while back. we're already 4.

[Jax]

Yeah, how old is that data? We've been passed Philly since I moved here (a year and 6 months ago).

[TheNiche]

we passed philadelphia a while back. we're already 4.

MSA, not City.

[Jax]

So the long term predictions are definitely not right, but I the short term ones most likely are. I guess Houston is going to be the country's 5th largest metro area soon.

Edited December 14, 2007 by Jax