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bpe3

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  1. bpe3
    That certainly is a concern. I thought about ripping off the entire front and making a third floor balcony as well. I think that will increase the cost by more than a factor of two because the roof line ties into the curve at the the top. I'm hoping that a curved front on the balcony with the railing following the same curve will tie it the look with the remaining windows at the top. I'm no designer though. I'm interested in all constructive critisim. bpe3
  2. bpe3
    I live in the middle unit of a fairly typical 3-unit, side-by-side, 3-story, inner loop townhouse complex built in 1993. My neighbor on one side enjoys a nice outdoor deck accessed from her second floor living room. The nieghbor on the other side (the corner lot) has a nice little walled-in yard area on the ground level. I have a only tiny little deck in the back of my unit. It's basically useless as it gets no sunlight and has six AC units close by making lots of racket. I have an idea, though. I'd like to remove an existing bank of four floor-to-ceiling windows and add Frech doors and a balcony so my second floor living area can open up to the outside. I'd like the balcony to extend far enough to accomodate at least two chairs that can be moved outside when the weather allows. I imagine the outer edge of the balcony having a curve similar to that of the third floor window bank which will remain unchanged. I'm very interested in anyone's thoughts about the feasibilty of this project. Is it even possible structurally? I don't want any support posts reaching down to the ground. It must tie in with the exisiting frame of the house. I am also curious about the cost. I really have no idea what something like this would cost. If it cost $10k or less, it sounds like a slam dunk. If we're talking $20k or more, I'm not so sure. I've attached some photos of the exterior and interior to give everyone a better idea of what I'm talking about. I look forward to any feedback HAIF'ers can provide. bpe3 Photos.pdf
  3. bpe3
    It's always good to know your neighbors. A quick seach of HCAD lists the following condo owners: Note: If the HCDA listed owner looked like a possible owner-occupacnt (i.e. John Smith), I changed their name to "Individual". The rest look to be investors, lenders who foreclosed, or even the condo association itself. Individual
  4. bpe3
    At some price, I'm sure there's some value there. It's a risky proposition thought. How do you determine the fair value? The have been construction problems since the get go. Leaks in the building envelope cuased physical damage to some unit interiors. There have rumors of mold infestation. I assume some of the leak issues have addressed. But what caused them in the first place. If the design was flawed, perhaps there are more problems waiting to happen down the line. If the design was OK and the GC just messed up in a few spots, maybe the problems have been fixed for good. I have know way of knowing. Neither do most others. There have been a lot of foreclosures in the building. Some of the units were likely purchased by prospective occupants or landlords using high leverage loans. The value of the units has clearly decreased due to all the bad press about the shoddy construction. It makes sense that some of these owners may have walked away from their unit knowing that they were underwater on their investment. Why throw good money after bad? Sacrifice your credit score and hand the lender the keys. There have also been accusations of mortgage fruad on the part of the developer and the condo sales reps. Some claim they bought in bogus buyers, lied about the buyer's income, and sold them units with other people's money. Perhaps the buyers were in on the scam and received kickbacks. Perhaps the buyers were scammed too. Who knows? Not me. Beware of low HOA fees. They can change at any time. If problems persist, more money may be needed. Where will that money come from? You, the condo owner. But what if your fellow condo owners cannot or will not fork over the cash. The HOA can go broke. Maintenance issues can go unaddressed. The building can fail into disrepair. Lawsuits are very expensive. Fractured owenrship can be dangerous thing. I've only seen photos of the unit interiors. They look pretty nice though. I don't think much of the exterior, but it's certainly not the only ugly building in town. bpe3
  5. bpe3
    Whether the tenants want or need nearby retail matters little. The question is, can they support it? I'm sure everyone at Post Midtown is happy to have Farrago, The Fish, Christian's Tailgate, Cyclone Anaya's, etc. right outside their front door, but the bottom line is that ALL of these businesses rely on MUCH MORE than the residents of Post Midtown, AMLI Midtown (old name), and that other place next door (Oakwood?) to stay in business. These businesses draw from a much larger trade area than just Midtown. Equinox is was it is. It's workforce housing for the Texas Medical Center and to a lesser extent, downtown. This is not a strong retail location. The demographics to the east are weak. The bayou and the Med Center are huge access barriers to anyone trying to travel to the site from the west. HAIF is like a broken record sometimes. Every time a project is announced, about 10 posters want to know it there will be street level retail and then lament the fact that it doesn't materialize. I'm not here to stifle anyone's enthusiasm. We all want Houston's core to be as great as it possibly can be. At the end of the day though, each new project needs to stand on its own two feet economically. Retail just isn't feasible everywhere. bpe3
  6. bpe3
    THAT is the key. It's just like the suburbs. You have to build the homes first. The retail will follow the rooftops. A 300-unit apartment complex cannot support ground level retail on it own, but if you build 7-8 complexes in close proximity, the 9th and 10th complexes can have a healthy retail component. bpe3
  7. bpe3
    I doubt you'll actually find a building that has been abandoned "because" of asbestos. You will find vacant buildings that have asbestos, but they were vacated for other reasons. There are countless occupied buildings in Houston that have asbestos. As long as it's non-friable, it's not going to hinder occupancy. Even if it is friable, the asbestos is often encapsulated on-site and occupancy continues. Vacancy occurs for other reasons including the functional obsolescence of the improvements, or the unwillingness of an owner to spend money maintaining or improving a building that he believes will eventually be torn down. bpe3
  8. bpe3
    No. I don't think we are in agreement. Houston-development said... I think there are buyers out there for $100 million dirt, even in these uncertain times. I'm not sayinging Archstone's tract is worth $100 million. I am saying that a $100 million price tag won't scare everyone away. Getting back to OP's topic though, at least we all seem to agree that Archstone's plan for this redevelopment is not the best option for this site. We are witnessing a possibly once in a lifetime opportunity to build something really special for the Washington corridor and make money at the same time. A generic gated apartment complex on this site is a waste. Assembling a similar tract anywhere in this submarket is next to impossible. bpe3
  9. bpe3
    On the subject of $100 million land plays, all I can say for sure is that I'm working on a $90+ million land deal right now (not in Houston) and there is a LOT of interest from a variety of developers. I can't quantify how many potential buyers may have passed on the deal becasue it was just too big for them to swallow. I can say that there are enough players at the table to make for a very competitive process. Off the top of my head: Angel/McIver scratched a check for $77 million to buy the Astroworld site without a development plan in place. The Rouse Company paid $82 million for the land that is now becoming Bridgelands. Maybe this dirt is worth $80 PSF, maybe not. We'll have to agree to disagree however, that a $100 million land deal is too big to make sense. bpe3
  10. bpe3
    It doesn't matter what Archstone's (or anyone else's) basis is this property. If they develop this dirt, their investment inlcudes the value of the dirt, not what they paid for it. If they develop the property, they are foregoing the opportunity to sell the property and collect the value. Example: Let's say you have a rich uncle. He dies and leaves you a beautiful 2-acre lot in River Oaks. Your cost basis in the lot is zero, although the market value of the lot is $1.5 million. You decide you'd love to live in River Oaks so you go out hire a builder and he builds you a 3,000 SF house on the lot. The cost to construct the house is $400k. If you short sightedly ignore the opportunity cost of selling the land, you may kick back in your house and think, "This is awesome, I have a brand new 3,000 SF house in River Oaks in River Oaks that only cost me $400k. This is a homebuyer's wet dream!" The fact of the matter is that that house actually cost you $1,900,000. If you hadn't built on that lot, you could have sold the lot for $1.5 million, chipped in $400k in cash and bought a different house for $1.9 million. At the end of the day, you've invested $1.9 million in either house. We can debate the value of the land all we want. The fact is that if Archstone redevelops this site, they are foregoing the opportunity to sell the land to someone else. By forgoing the sale, they are actually investing that forgone profit into their new development. bpe3
  11. bpe3
    Archstone is not blind to opportunity cost. Although their cost basis in the land is far less, they know damn well that if they redevelop this land, they are, in fact, paying the market price for the dirt. The Bayou Park site and the Deyaar site have both sold in the last 60 days for $50+ million at land value. There were 29 bidders for Bayou Park. I don't think it's that big a jump to $100 million. There are a lot of deep pocketed investors out there who see Houston as a very attractive place to invest. bpe3
  12. bpe3
    Just to clarify, the latest townhouse trend has been going on for 15 years. It started in earnest in the early 90's and hasn't stopped. As stated above, the trend is largely unique to Houston due to non-existent or expired deed restrictions in many older, well located, neighborhoods combined with our lack of zoning. In Austin, Dallas, or just about anywhere else, you just falt out can't bulldoze a 1,200 SF cottage on a 5,000 SF lot and build two new 3-story townhouses with a combined 6,000 SF of living space and two 2-car garages. Houston is WAY ahead of the curve in allowing this type of development. You can't do it all with mid-rise and high-rise condos like they are trying to do in Austin. Most of the close-in housing stock in Austin is woefully obsolete. The powers that be in Austin prefer to just let it sit and rot in place. A perfect example of this is Austin's West Campus neighborhood. This is some of the most valuable real estate in the city. There were some condos build there in the 80's, but nothing else for 20 years. The city's zoning limited the height of buildings to 3-4 stories. Developers couldn't build high. Land cost were effectively capped. Landlord's enjoyed receiving top dollar for decrepit 50-year old buildings. They had no incentive to sell to a developer at artifically low land prices. FINALLY, some one in City Hall looked at the neighborhood and agreed it was time to redevelop. They raised the height limitations and wa-la, the developers swam in, tear everything down and start building taller buildings. It's too bad West Campus is the only residential neighborhood in Austin where you can do this. The rest of the city's neighborhoods will have to sit and wait, maybe another 50-years, until City Hall thinks their neighborhood is worthy of redevelopment. I'll take Houston's imprefect development strategy over city's "plan" any day of the week. I have visitors from around the country come to my 1993 vintage, fee-simple, no maintenance fee, 3-bedroom, 3.5 bath, 2-car garage, 2,400 SF, 3-story townhouse in 77019. They are BLOWN AWAY that I bought it in 2004 for $275k. In MANY other big city real estate markets, the EXACT same thing would cost $1 to $1.5 million, maybe more. People in Houston have no idea how good we have it. bpe3
  13. bpe3
    Didn't the Bayou Park Apartments just sell for around $80 PSF on the dirt? The Archstone tract seems superior given the tremendous amount of street frontage on three main thouroghfares. A $160,000/unit price tag for Memorial Heights equals $81 PSF for the dirt. If someone will pay $80 PSF for Bayou Park dirt, then $80 PSF for Memorial Heights dirt should be a no-brainer. Whoever redevelops this dirt has a chance to do something really special. This property could be a trophy asset that anchors Washington Ave as it transforms into one the finest corridors in Houston. Instead, we get the same generic stuff that Archstone and everyone else is building all over town. It will certainly be an improvement over what there now, but an incredible missed opportunity none the less. bpe3
  14. bpe3
    If you want to go straight, stay in the right lane. Seems pretty simple.
  15. bpe3
    The website is still up: http://www.sanfelipecourt.com/ but the apartments have been gone for a few months. Yesterday I noticed a variance request sign placed on the chain link fence surrounding the dirt. What's going up in its place? Taller, denser, nicer apartments or condos seem like a natural fit. The nearby Roll-N Saloon is a unique amenity. Unfortuantely, it doesn't appear that the redevelopment plan inlcudes the mid-rise mini-storage building that claims much of the frontage on and visibilty from San Felipe. bpe3
  16. bpe3
    It makes me feel better. Fred McCord lives on Chevy Chase in River Oaks. He should know the boundaries of his own nieghborhood. bpe3
  17. bpe3
    Seprately, here is yet another development trying to steal some cache from River Oaks when they clearly ARE NOT located in River Oaks. What kind of name is "Willowick at River Oaks"???? If you lived here you'd never be able to tell people, "I have a house at Willowick at River Oaks". Half the people would think you lived on Willowick street, some of which runs through River Oaks. They'd get lost driving up and down Willowick looking for your house or an an intersection with Las Palmas. The other half might initially think you live in River Oaks, but would later conclude you were a Dallas-esque poser when they find out you actually live in Weslayan Plaza. There's nothing wrong with saying you live in Weslayan Plaza, ESPECIALLY if you actually live in Weslayan Plaza. If you're not happy with Welsayan Plaza, tell people you live in Highland Village, or Afton Oaks. You'd be much closer to the truth. bpe3
  18. bpe3
    On a separate note, the "de-densification" described by the OP only describes the number of households. The improvements constructed on the site will be considerably larger, denser and taller than the existing improvements. Fewer people living in more expensive homes. Little by little, those with limited incomes are being pushed out of the inner loop to make room for those with more resources. I'm a staunch supporter of Houston's "out with the old, in with the new" mentality, but this one hits a little close to home. I used to have a girlfriend that lived here. I spent a lot of time at this complex. The units were very large. The prices were quite affordable. There was no big gate limiting access. There was a nice "street like" driveway so guests could drive right up to your front door. Resident parking at the rear of every unit. This place was quite unique for a rental complex. The existing residents will have a hard time finding anything similar. This place has been owned for a very long time by a Saudi investor who lived overseas. I always thought his deep pockets would afford him the opportunity to ignore high dollar offers from would be developers. Business is business though. You can't go broke making a profit. More power to him. It hurts to see places like this disappear, but if that's the cost of Houston's ongoing inner loop renaissance, so be it. bpe3
  19. bpe3
    Right around the corner on Drexel Drive in Lynn Park, Lovett Homes is building a new 5,037 SF luxury home on a 8,890 SF lot. This is a top quality house with an asking price of $1,250,000. There is no way they'll get $900k to $1.5 million for empty lots in this location just because they are behind a gate. Sloppy reporting. HAR listing: link bpe3
  20. bpe3
    Did anyone here see the radar gun? I've received many, many speeding tickets over the years. The vast majority of tickets were written for a speed slower the speed I was actually travelling. I've been pulled over going 90 in an 70 and got a ticket for 80 MPH. I've been pulled over for going 50 in a 35 and gotten a ticket for 45 MPH. It happens all the time. It sounds to me like Sonny Boy is just trying to pull one over on Ol' Dad. Just pay the ticket and move on. It's just a tax on driving. If you add up all the costs associated with having a car (gas, insurance, parking, depreciation, repairs, maintenance, etc.), the cost of a ticket here and there is a drop in the bucket. bpe3
  21. bpe3
    The parcel on the north side of Dallas Street has been heavily seeded with winter rye grass. I'm sure that's the site you saw. The parcel on the south side of Dallas Street has not been seeded at all. It's mostly dirt with a few scattered weeds. bpe3
  22. bpe3
    Separately, since we may in fact have the developer's eyes on his thread, is there anything we can do to change the silly name before it's too late. Who came up with "Regent Square"? Did someone just pull that out of a fish bowl filled with generic real estate development names? Is there a college nearby? Who are these Regents? How about we come up with a name that has at least some connection to the neighborhood or the city of Houston? The Allen Bros founded Houston. Allen's Landing, where it all started, is only a mile or so away. Allen Parkway follows the path of Buffalo Bayou straight upstream from Allen's Landing to the former site of Allen House Apartments. The Allen House name is familiar to many Houstonians. Why not call it Allen Square? Allen Center can be on one end of the street and Allen Square can be on the other end. Allen Parkway is one of the better known streets in the city. The name Allen Square would convey much more sense of place. Maybe call it Allen Square Park. Who was the genius at GID that came up with the name "Windsor at Siena" for the former Siena Apartments on Studemont? The original name never had any meaning to begin with. Now you just want to put your Windsor brand in front of a meaningless name? If you're going to change it, why not change it to Windsor at Memorial Heights? At least that would give SOME indication where the property is located. How about Windsor on Studemont? Someone has to stop these people. Who's idea was it to rename Westcreek Apartments to "Westcreek at River Oaks"? Does anyone know where these apartments are located? Hint: It's not in River Oaks. Same goes for the currently under construction Fairmont at the Museum District. Could they possibly be located in the Museum District? Unfortunately, No. If you really intend to to build this excellent project (or even something else), please put some more thought into the name. I know you guys are from Boston, but calling it Regent Square makes about as much sense as calling it Yankees Suck Square. bpe3
  23. bpe3
    I REALLY want this thing to happen. I hope to be proven wrong. I guess we'll wait and see what happens when the 3rd quarter rolls around. Statements like this don't make a lot of sense to me though. If you can build it faster, build it faster. Start now and finish sooner. If the plans are set, and the financing is set, pull the trigger. What benefit comes from waiting??? .....unless you're not really ready. It's great to know the design firms are still involved, but that really means very little at this point. Have they selected a GC? Is the contact signed? Who's making the contruction loan? Is the loan commitment signed? Are all the loan contingencies met? I assume GID is thowing in the land as their equity? Is that enough? Are there other equity partners? Who are they? How committed are they? For the record, I have no direct connection to this project at all. But I think my information (and speculation) is pretty good. We'll see. bpe3
  24. bpe3
    This isn't a rumor. I live near this project. I want it to work more than anyone. The numbers don't work though. The original assumptions were way off. They bid it to their GC's and the costs were too high to justify the project based on the rents or sales prices they think they can get. End of story. There wasn't much risk tearing down the existing buildings. They are going to build something here. It's just going to be different than what we've seen in the renderings to date. Note to readers: This is where the facts end and my personal speculation begins ---------------------- My guess is that they will shrink the size of the residential structures to the same four-story, podium-style construction we're seeing elsewhere. The cost difference between stick-built vs. mid-rise is substantial. It's very hard to justify mid-rise construction with rents where they currently stand. Yes, there are some condo deals getting done, but it's much harder to finance a condo deal than a rental deal. A deal this big would need a huge amount of pre-sales (time consuming and speculative) or a huge equity investment (expensive) to get financed. The project, as origianlly concived, doesn't work as a rental. The retail componenet will shrink. There was a lot more retail in this deal than the development itself could support. Retailers here would have to draw from a large area to be successful here. Yes, the surrounding area is fairly dense, affluent and growing. Yes, these are strong retail site characteristics. Accessability is a problem here though. Buffalo Bayou is a barrier to the north and northeast. River Oaks doesn't have enough rooftops. Memorial Park has no residents. The area to the south is fine. Without a doubt, this a fantastic neighborhood. You have to admit though, it's not exactly easy to get to, unless you're already in the neighborhood. There are also visibility issues. This isn't the Rice Village. This isn't Highland Village. This isn't the Galleria. There is clearly some retail demand, but it's much less than they drew into the original plans. The hotel portion will be axed. This isn't a hotel site. High end hotels in Houston need to be in the Galleria, Downtown or the Med Center. IF the rest of the project had penciled out as designed, the incredible development itself MAYBE could have made a hotel deal work. Maybe. Still a stretch though. A hotel will never happen here now. Forget about it. I think when it's all said and done, we'll get a very nice project here that will be welcome addition to the neighborhood. It's just going to look a lot more like Post Midtown and less like the drawings they've put forth to date.
  25. bpe3
    Bad news, folks. Forget everything you've seen, heard or read about this project. The developer has gone back to the drawing board. The numbers didn't work. We'll have to wait and see what they come up with next.
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