mpbro

I'm curious if anyone has statistics on property tax receipts along the current MetroRail corridor before and after the current line went in.

I'm guessing that land values along dodgier parts of Main Street have doubled in the last few years. From the city's perspective, it seems like putting this rail line through distressed populated areas is a no-brainer investment, with maybe a 5-year payout. Freeways don't increase property values, at least not as directly as the rail.

I agree with your basic analysis, but I think the lack of data points hurts your argument. According to your charts, from July 2004 to July 2005, the level of increase in the "average sales price per foot" for both townhomes and single-family homes appears to be very close.

Furthermore, assuming the price per square foot represents the price for the entire square footage of the lot, and not the square footage of the house, one could make the argument that townhomes are actually more desireable; hence the higher price-per-square foot number.

Yeah, it's impossible to know exactly what happened. FWIW, here is a similar graph from a nearby subdivision of new (2002ish) townhomes, which shows a clear decline (notwithstanding the blue trend curve). I have no doubt that townhomes are not all created equal. I'd be interested to know what separates the men from the boys, so to speak.

I think Downtown sales are in for some hard times. The lease market might be really good for landlords over the next few years, though.

I also think townhouse-heavy neighborhoods like The West End, Midtown and Rice Military are due for a big correction pretty soon. I don't think current owners are going to like it, either. there are, of course some exceptions, like the area south of 59, near the Museum District.

Places with bungalows and smaller houses, like The Heights, Montrose, Timbergrove and such will probably continue to grow at a huge rate. I'm not sure we've even come close to testing the top of that market. Sunset Heights, on one end and Shady Acres on the other seem bitten by the delusion that they can pull values like their nextdoor neighbors. I think they will find out soon that they can't. Then, maybe in the next 10 years or so, they will and people who gambled here will look like geniuses.

Transitional neghborhoods like the East End and points south from there will need to keep an eye on retail infrastructure. If they get good quality grocery, restaurant and store options opening in their neighborhoods, the prices will go boom! If not, they'll see a spike as new town houses come in and then a correction in a few years. How you play that could make a real difference in how you view this situation.

Large home neighborhoods like Southside Place, River Oaks, West U, Southampton, etc. will probably continue modestly appreciating in built-out areas and be going crazy in tear-down ones. These regions have proven virtually recession-proof and determined to make sure you can't afford them.

Throughout the Southeast side, there will be pockets of speculation, but values should remain largely flat after having enjoyed a few years of good growth. These seem to be solid, conservative investments.

Northeast and and around the Harrisburg area are mostly absentee landlord neighborhoods, where the property is worth more than the houses can bring in rent. This keeps new buyers out, because when financed, the houses won't cash-flow. If you own some outright, it's fine. Otherwise, it's a money-loser. Thus, values stay pretty flat.

A real bright spot is the Southwest area around Stella Link and Braeswood, west of Main. There's lots of new mixed with re-hab and old, well-kept homes. Values are climbing and neighborhoods are growing.

In general, the highrise market is pretty flat. Previously untouchable buildings like Randall Davis' stuff or Bayou Bend Towers, or the few fairly exclusive buildings around the park are beginning to dip into Joe Anyman's price range. the problem is that their maintenance fees are still high, so it keeps them out of reach. It's a resale problem for current owners who end up seeing a larger percentage of their payment not translate into equity, too.

Great post.

Have you heard anything about the decision on where to put metrorail? Richmond or Westpark? If Richmond, then that corridor between Montrose and Shepherd seems ripe for an explosion. You're within spitting distance of old money (North/South Blvd.). Some of that area is even zoned to Poe Elementary.

I was absent from Houston from 1997 to 2004, but when I left in '97, the Montrose bungalows were very hot, but they seem a bit depressed now. Is that true? If so, is it due to consumer distaste with 1000 sqft homes?

I'm surprised that Braeswood is doing so well. How much of it flooded in 2001? The fantastic new construction seems to have 5 ft+ of crawl space!

Southgate and Morningside Place have seen significant tear-down activity in the last couple years. Spec builds on small interior lots, with at least 3 very large customs in progress on larger corner lots in Southgate proper. All the customs were on Southgate Blvd.

It has to be the 36" wide, 1952 glass pocket door between the foyer and the den!

Townhouses may be convenient, but your appreciation potential is compromised. A house consists of two assets: the structure and the land. The structure depreciates like a car, boat, etc. Some homes have "antique" value and can, after a time, retain some value. The land, however, tends to appreciate in the long term at the rate of inflation, plus or minus. So with a townhome, you have less land (the appreciating asset). Moreover, in most cases, you're limited on what you can actually do with the land with a townhome (i.e., you can't tear down if you're attached to someone else!).

Here is some sales data for a couple subdivisions. The first is for a subdivision of townhomes with small (<2000 sqft) lots on W. Dallas. You see minor appreciation, probably less than inflation. The second one is from a nearby subdivision of single family homes with larger (>6000 sqft) lots and shows at least a doubling of property value over the same time period. Unfortunately the second one doesn't have that many data values, but you see my point. FWIW...

I can't speak for the complexes, but I live close to the Med Center and there are a lot of duplexes just west of the med center (Southgate subdivision). From signs, rents tend to be in the $1200 range for a 2-bedroom, probably below $1000 for a one-bedroom. Since Hurricane Katrina, vacancy rates dropped all over the city (supposedly 100K of them here at one point).

Yeah. It has some issues. It appears that it is missing Shepherd Forest Section 1.

Its also kinda funny to advertise RE values as real time. The RE market moves pretty slow (compared to say equities trading), information once a day should be more than plenty.

For tax protest, current market value isn't so important. Sure, HCAD will try to inflate everyone's assessed value as market values move up. You basically have to justify that your assessed value, relative to those in your subdivision, are overvalued. Actually, I've seen that voxproperty site before and it's got some nice features (but a bit hard to find).

They have a funny property tax "primer" which seems to make sense. They also have a decent comparison tool, which is probably exactly what you'd want for an HCAD protest (Example).

Glad to see some interesting discussion of tax protest. I meant to do it this year but missed the deadline.