mpbro

Well, I've been doing this commute for over a month, so here is my daily routine.

Leave home before 6:30. 59 south to 610W north to 10 west. I can get to Barker-Cypress in 25 minutes most days.

The afternoon commute is considerably more irritating. On most days, I just suffer 10 east to BW-8 and take the WPTW to 59 N. The "shortcut" to Clay is fine if there isn't a jam at Eldridge and Clay, but I use it only when 10 looks miserable.

I've tried Eldridge and Dairy Ashford to the WPTW. I find Dairy Ashford far superior! The lights seem to be synchronizedat 4:30 pm. I was able to get home in 35 minutes. Also, the right turn off the feeder is no problem. Eldridge is a pain by comparison. Bad right turn off the feeder, more traffic, asynchronous stoplights.

Is that house smaller than the typical house in the neighborhood? If so, that would explain the "unheard of" cost per square foot, and it would also result in an overall price lower than most, making it an attractive property for those without huge buckets of money to spend on larger houses. Alternatively, maybe there wasn't much of anything on the market in the area, and so when a new listing popped up, a bidding frenzy ensued.

The home is a bungalow-style, but there are many of those in the neighborhood. Even among its peers (land value and structure attributes), it was pricy.

You are right about the tight market--there was hardly anything good for sale at that time. The listing agent held it off the market through the April-May rush, then had an open house the first DOM. There were lots of lookers, and that had to drive buyer psychology.

How do you plan on generating some buzz?

Generally, Houston is not a place where you get multiple bidders unless it is a truly exceptional property.

I had an interesting experience when I was looking for a place in June, 2004. The property was at 2203 Swift (click for a photo). Great curb appeal, nice location, great oak trees. The house has a great floorplan and was "clean". You couldn't find anything wrong with it. However, it was listed an a then-unheard of $270/sqft. Still, they received 4 offers first DOM and it sold for 2% over list.

Looking back with a critical eye, though, the place was nothing special. Kitchen about 10 years out of date, bathrooms average. Not enough bedrooms or bathrooms. School traffic twice a day. Whatever those people did, they generatedsome serious BUZZ! If I use an agent, I want that type of experience.

I would think that it would be possible to sell it for above market if you incentiveize the agents properly, but you're going to have to make it very much worth the agent's while to move it...so much so that they'd be willing to give bad advice to buyers, and pressure them into paying above market. I don't think you'd be able to do a whole lot better than the 6% you'd save selling it yourself, however.

I wonder if 2203 Swift did not have a BTSA!

We may need to sell our house in the coming months. Optimal scenario would be: generate some buzz, sell it quick, perhaps with multiple bidders. I've thought about using a BTSA (bonus to selling agent), as well as a sliding commission for my seller's agent. Can any of you comment on the effectiveness of either strategy?

The house is near the Med Center. On a large corner lot in a neighborhood with a lot of teardown activity. House it 1952, 2000 sqft--not quite a teardown.

I feel that if I list it myself at teardown price, I can sell it quickly, and forget about paying a big commission. I guess the question is: could good marketing and buzz get me a premium that would net me more than teardown price?

It's actually very easy to determine the value of the land when there is also a house on the property (that isn't a teardown).

You need to get a list of recent sales in the neighborhood for houses in similar condition but of the full range of home sizes (and lot sizes, if they differ in the area). If you have a wide range of home conditions in your data set, you are going to need to either separate them into different groups, or add a condition factor - both methods will potentially lower the accuracy of your calculations. For most neighborhoods in Inner Loop Houston you can usually divide the data into 1) teardown, 2) livable but original, 3) restored/new construction and still be fairly accurate.

Next use Excel to run a two-variable regression analysis against that data set, with the two independent variables as home sq ft and lot size sq ft. If you have a good data set, and can establish a good "curve fit", you will be able to generate a formula that gives the contribution of both the lot size and home size to the overall value of the home.

This is the method used to establish home/lot values by the real pros (not pinhead local realtors or small-time flippers...I'm talking about the "Ug buys Ugly houses" people and the like). Google "two variable regression analysis Excel home value" or something similar to get some examples. It's really not that difficult to do.

HCAD values, for the most part, shouldn't be trusted from a valuation perspective.

My experience doesn't agree with your "very easy" assessment! I definitely agree that some type of clustering approach could pay dividends for structure valuation in older neighborhoods. Here was my interpretation of various clusters for an ITL neighborhood with high land values. Many of the 30's-40's bungalows have been gutted and lovingly restored. But the scatter is huge. Just from a tax record, I'd not be able to pin down the structure PSF to within $20-40/sqft. That's simply not accurate enough to tease out a reliable land valuation.

However, I don't doubt that other neighborhoods have more simple structure trends.

A few random thoughts:

• How do you know that structure PSF is linear with sqft?
  
• Or, back to my original question, that land PSF is linear with parcel size?
  
• I've found that fixtures often matter more than sqft. Bathrooms, in particular, add considerable value for a fixed sqft/beds/age.
  

Anyway, interesting discussion, appreciate it.

Zillow.com estimates the house is worth $193,xxx dollars. I think this is HIGH but would be very happy if someone wanted to purchase it close to that.

Sounds like you'll have fun, which is all that matters. I've got a 3-month old baby, so I doubt my wife would encourage me to undertake such a project!

Just looking at the sales data for that subdivision, I'd guess $60-80/sqft as a reasonable range. That's $108-144K. If you paid list or under, there seems to be a lot of room for upside.

Well, the Southwood name came from HCAD. I have no idea which one is "right". ;-) But limiting the comps to a small nearby distance should get you something interesting, at least. In that area, I bet a neighborhood (and thus property values) can change radically just by crossing a street.

You planning on renting out, or just a pure flip?

Generally speaking, tract size alone will not significantly affect psf market value. The primary exception to this occurs when a parcel is very, very big and nearly all potential buyers are priced out of the marketplace. However, it take more than a few 6200sf lots before this might occur. Conversely, in areas where larger parcels sizes are scarce or difficult to assemble, an unusually large parcel will often command a substantial premium in terms of $/psf.

But if you can't find good sales comps for vacant lots, then seperating out land and improvment prices can get horrendously complicated

Tell me about it!

Well, if I get ambitious, I'll try to ferret out recent tear down sales and divine some trends. Easier said than done if you're not a realtor. In TX (non-disclosure state), all you get is a trailing indicator of land value.

Congrats, and good luck. First, I do not believe that your target property is in Vogel 10 Acs subdivision, but rather in "Southwood/South Oaks". I find 58 reasonable comps within 1/2 mile of that property. My criteria were: structure area within 500 sqft, land area within 20%, built +/- 10 years of target, 3 bedrooms, 1.5-2.5 baths. Only 3 of the 58 have sold (per HCAD) within the past several years.

Interesting question. I posted a similar question to another topic.

If you overpaid for your house, I doubt you'd fully be exposed to the full tax burden. Since HCAD land values are computed by a formula (land square feet within individual subdivisions), your land assessment cannot rise unless the entire subdivision rises. Since you overpaid, it wouldn't be fair to increase land assessment for the entire subdivision. The rest of the slack would have to be taken up by the structure assessment. And frankly, HCAD won't increase the assessed value of a structure by, say, 30%.

All this IMO.

Here's something I've been trying to do for a while, to no avail: Estimate land value from sale price (for non-teardowns).

Many of you are familiar with HCAD's land assessment formula. Each subdivision has a cutoff square footage (6300 sqft for mine). Land up to 6300 sqft is a linearly declining function of sqft. Land past 6300 sqft is assessed at half the rate. So you get value curves that look like this: linear up to 6300 sqft, quasi-exponential for > 6300.

My question is this: is there any reason to believe that *true* land values follow a curve like this?

I suspect that they do not. When a property sells for more than the HCAD assessment, presumably HCAD tries to increase the assessed value. Most of the appreciation is in the land, but since HCAD has a rigid land valuation formula, any "slop" will have to go into the structure assessment, unless HCAD changes the parameters of the land formula. For instance, while my assessed land value rose by 17% (2005 to 2006), my assessed structure value rose by a healthy 7%! And my house is a butt-ugly 1952 ranch style. Not exactly an appreciating asset.

Probably the more important question for the board: what does the true land value versus land sqft curve look like?

What do you mean by "deals"?

What about homeowners contacted by xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx who don't use the computer?

flipper

It's interesting--xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx physically sends postcards to homeowners, using tax records. It's simple, and I wonder if it works. Unfortunately, you have to know which properties you want to offer on. Would be cool if they had the ability to find leads through the website.

Hey Folks,

One of the main ways we find houses to remodel is by contacting the owners of run down/ vacant houses.

So do you have any of those houses on your street? In your neighborhood?

If there's something you think I might be interested in, let me know.

If it turns out to be something worth pursuing, I can show you how I can pay you alot of money for helping me.

flipper

One interesting home I can think of is at 2202 McClendon. I don't know if you shy away from the $40+/sqft land areas or not.

It is a fairly large 2 story on a prime corner lot (Montclair & McClendon). 2 custom houses ($1M+) on corner of Montclair & Southgate (one street N) built in 2006. So you would be fighting against the tide of teardown. However, the house is interesting to me. Sort of New Orleans style, with balconies and wrought iron. Aesthetically looks terrible, but I think would clean up well and could sell for $600K+.

Mysteriously, an FSBO sign went up a few weeks ago and came down a few days later. Don't know what that means, but he is in a mood to sell, if it hasn't already sold.

Ahh, Village Plumbing...

The previous owner of my house was..."creative". He wanted to run a NG grill, so he spliced a needle valve directly at the gas meter, buried(!) copper tubing, and popped a quick connect up onto the back patio. This arrangement worked well until the copper tubing started leaking underground. So I called Village Plumbing...

He quoted $200 to replace the needle valve, a few hundred to run the line to the patio (above ground), another $400 to pressure test the system. But OH, he can't do any gas work until he sees if my water heater is up to code. Of course, it is not. Not only does it need to be replaced, but it needs a raised platform and all the venting needs to be redone. $1300 for the water heater (installed), plus another few hundred for the vent work. Quote total: $3200.

Needless to say, I bought some tubing, re-ran it above ground, and was in business for $50. Not up to code, perhaps, but a lot safer than the previous arrangement.

Ugh...Village Plumbing.

One of the main ways we find houses to remodel is by contacting the owners of run down/ vacant houses.

So do you have any of those houses on your street? In your neighborhood?

You might check out xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx for something similar. Pretty cool site.

I like some of the neighborhoods just *north* of 59, west of Montrose. Some are zoned to Poe elementary. The more easterly part looks sharp after the new Montrose bridge over 59 went in. Assuming (???) the next MetroRail expansion goes down Richmond...the whole area is nicely positioned.

Well, thanks for the further replies. I've commuted the past 2 days on various routes.

Westpark westbound in the mornings is a snap

Westpark eastbound in the evenings is a snap

I-10 west in the mornings is a snap

I-10 east sucks ass from 6 to 8

I-10 east sucks MAJOR ass from 8 to 610!

Trying to backtrack to 99 is a drag. Had to wait 4 light cycles to get to light!

I've heard that 6 is a decent option, except for the right turn off the EB I-10 feeder. I think I will try going east on Park Row (just N of I-10), and right on 6.

I will try the Eldridge option.

I tried SH-6 NB from Westpark to I-10 this morning...it basically sucks, but could be worse. I'm just going to take I-10 in the mornings.

I found an interesting evening "short cut" that lets me avoid I-10 altogether and moves fast the whole time!

Park Row to SH-6.

Right on Patterson

Left on Eldridge

Right on Clay

South on BW-8

Westpark Tollway and home

I think it's actually about 8 miles longer than just going I-10 to BW-8, but I think it is slightly faster, and way less irritating, if bumper-to-bumper traffic irritates you. There are only about 5 stoplights, and all are right turns.

Well, thanks for the further replies. I've commuted the past 2 days on various routes.

Westpark westbound in the mornings is a snap

Westpark eastbound in the evenings is a snap

I-10 west in the mornings is a snap

I-10 east sucks ass from 6 to 8

I-10 east sucks MAJOR ass from 8 to 610!

Trying to backtrack to 99 is a drag. Had to wait 4 light cycles to get to light!

I've heard that 6 is a decent option, except for the right turn off the EB I-10 feeder. I think I will try going east on Park Row (just N of I-10), and right on 6.

I will try the Eldridge option.

I think it's a general unpredictability of the drivers that's the problem. People change lanes without signaling (much less looking), pass on the right (or shoulder), pull out in front of fast traffic, etc. When you can't trust what the others around you are doing, you have to slow down.

LA is the prime counterexample. They tailgate and drive really fast, but they are at least fairly predictable. I imagine their freeway system, slow as it is, probably accomodates far more cars per day per mile of freeway...

VicMan seems to be pretty protective of Lovett - I wonder why - HMMMMMM

Maybe a Lovett employee disguised as an impartial observer . . . ?

I don't know...he's made over 800 posts since he joined! :closedeyes:

How did you manage to spend $2000 replacing toilets? We replaced an old toilet with a decent Kohler for like $200 at HD.

My limited knowledge of Lovett is as a high-end spec builder around Rice. I'm not sure they're different than any other successful spec builder. The margins are so low in that business that only the shrewd survive.

I think the big problem is probably poor-quality subs. With the hot construction market, labor is expensive and in short supply. As an example, we hired a company to sand our hardwoods. When the owner looked at the original floor, he said, "see those 'waves' in the floor? After we're done, it will be smooth as silk". Well, the guy's crew must have been practicing on our floor, because there are more waves now than before!

Debowski has been very nice to us. Fair prices, prompt and honest service, always looking for the simple solution. Can't comment on HVAC; this was just for a single-home unit.

In the morning, assuming you're making the typical commute, 59 to Westpark Tollway exit Hwy 6 should work fine. You are lucky as there is a direct exit from the westbound tollway to Hwy 6 north. That is a blessing, as regular users of this quirky toll road know. Hwy 6 north to I10 and then west to Barker Cypress should be painless.

In the evening, it's a liitle trickier getting back on Westpark Tollway heading East from Hwy 6. You have to drive a mile or so through several lights down Alief Clodine Road and enter at Eldridge. Also, traffic can back up on the I10 service road waiting to turn at Hwy 6. You can try cutting behind on the road that runs behind all those motels.

If I10 was moving (it sometimes is), I'd consider staying on 10 all the way to Sam Houston Tollway, 610, or even Studemont just to save toll money.

Heh-heh, spoken like a true Houstonian! Thanks much for the crafty advice.

Just looking at the traffic flow maps, it looks like the morning commute will be a snap. Everything seems backed up in the afternoon, though. What about backtracking to Grand Parkway in the afternoon?

I just switched jobs and am facing a daunting (for me) commute: Rice U. area to I-10 and Barker Cypress. I'll use the Westpark Tollway. What's the best way to get to and from work? Grand Parkway? 6? 8?

I am currently seeing a lot of townhouses/condos for sale around Holly Hall st area, east of Alameda. In particular I have been looking at Holly Hall Townhouses. Has condos in there appreciated or remain steady recently?

Here is a link to some value information for Holly Hall TH (Click on "Recent Sales" graph for appreciation info). I'm not a big fan of condos as an "investment", but TMC may be the best condo location in all of Houston, with the high concentration of busy medical professionals.

If you want to up your price point and buy a single-family home in a hot neighborhood, try Braes Terrace/Knollwood Village (and another). Also close to the TMC, but gentrifying in a hurry with spillover from Braeswood (which is spillover from West U). Lots of new build activity. You should be able to get in for < $250K.

Good luck!

I read something in the Economist or WSJ some time back. I think this was in Singapore. Anyway, all freeways are tollways, and all use "EZ Tag" equivalents. The interesting thing is: the toll changes continuously throughout the day. More expensive at peak hours, cheaper at other times. The idea is to get people to drive at less popular times, effectively smoothing out traffic "peaks" at rush hour.