Cy-Fair ISD Facing Amazing Growth

[mrfootball]

School district to face 'amazing growth'

Chamber says tax base needs business influx

By ANITRA D. BROWN

Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle

If Cy-Fair ISD keeps growing at its current rate, the district will have 100,000 students by the 2008-2009 school year and will peak at about 130,000 students by 2020, said John Fourqurean, director of planning research and evaluation.

Fourqurean said the estimates were rough, but reliable.

"Anything can happen between now and then," he said. "But we will peak somewhere around 2020."

The average increase for the district has been about 4,000 to 5,000 students a year, he said.

In 2005-2006, enrollment was 87,500, about 7,000 more students than 2004-2005.

That number, slightly inflated because of Hurricane Katrina, should begin to level off again as the district returns to its normal growth rate, Fourqurean said.

He cited residential development along Fry Road, both north and south of FM 529, as the evidence of the increase in students and residents Cy-Fair could expect.

"Everything's platted for homes, thousands and thousands of homes," he said.

The expected growth in school enrollment and the escalation of new home construction in the area has some worried about the future demand on Cy-Fair's tax base.

Cy-Fair Chamber President Darcy Mingoia said the area's tax base mix is about 65 percent residential and 30 percent business. A better ratio, she said, would be 50-50.

"Unless we get industry and commercial growth to offset it, it's going to be very tough on the tax base," she said. "The land is being taken up by residential growth instead of business growth, so that's a real struggle for the chamber."

The growth will likely outpace the district's current construction plans for new schools.

In 2004, Cy-Fair voters approved a $713.2 million bond referendum. A total of $337.9 million of that was earmarked to build 11 new schools and acquire 18 school sites and 194 new buses.

The district already has moved up the date of construction for some of the schools, planning to open five new schools in the next three years, all financed by that 2004 bond election.

"We'll be opening up new high schools in 2008," he said. "And they'll be completely full a couple of years after they are open."

"We're going to have to have another bond election in a few years," Fourqurean said. "And every year we're going to get more money for new schools."

Fourqurean spoke to the Cy-Fair Houston Chamber of Commerce transportation committee, which meets regularly to get updates on topics that affect growth and infrastructure throughout Cy-Fair.

Cy-Fair's anticipated growth doesn't come as news to chamber members, but some were surprised to learn just what it meant for the school district.

"It's amazing growth. We just have to make sure we can handle it," Mingoia said.

Mingoia told the group that the districts' anticipated numbers also help indicate the area's future population in general.

The Chamber multiplies the number of Cy-Fair ISD students by 7.5 to determine the region's population.

If Cy-Fair ISD's numbers are on target, it means there will be about 750,000 people living in Cy-Fair by the fall of 2008 and more than 900,000 by 2020.

[KAHLA FAN 101]

what a fast growth

[Trae]

Wow, that's a big school district. I meam the demographics have to be big to allow the building of two new high schools. Katy is at 50,000 (220,000 in the district) now, and the fastest growing in the district.

Isn't half of Cy-Fair lower income housing, and the other half brand spanking new cookie cutter suburban homes.

[mrfootball]

Isn't half of Cy-Fair lower income housing, and the other half brand spanking new cookie cutter suburban homes.

No.

Majority of CFISD (especially on the Hwy 290 to Champions side of the district) is Middle to Upper Middle Class. The nicest areas are around Champions, Lakewood, Longwood, Coles Crossing, Rock Creek which have significantly higher average household incomes than The Woodlands ($120,000+ avg Household income vs. $101,000 avg Household income in the Woodlands). The portion closest to Katy is more cookie cutter, and has likely shaped your impression of the district.

In general its Middle Class, with it being more Upper Middle Class in the Cy-Fair, Cy-Creek, Cy-Woods areas. There are smatterings of really nice Upper Middle Class developments all over the district (like Lakes on Eldridge located in lower Middle Class HS zones like Cy-Ridge).

In the big new growth areas off Fry Rd. and 290, New homes in Blackhorse, Cypress Creek Lakes, and Bridgelands are mostly in the $300's to $400's on up.

[Trae]

The first phase of the half of the Bridgelands that will be in Cy-Fair starts in the low 100's and go up to barely above the 400's.

No.

Majority of CFISD (especially on the Hwy 290 to Champions side of the district) is Middle to Upper Middle Class. The nicest areas are around Champions, Lakewood, Longwood, Coles Crossing, Rock Creek which have significantly higher average household incomes than The Woodlands ($130,000+ avg Household income vs. $101,000 avg Household income in the Woodlands). The portion closest to Katy is more cookie cutter, and has likely shaped your impression of the district.

In general its Middle Class, with it being more Upper Middle Class in the Cy-Fair, Cy-Creek, Cy-Woods areas. There are smatterings of Upper Upper Middle Class developments like Lakes of Eldridge located in lower Middle Class HS zones like Cy-Ridge.

In the big new growth areas off Fry Rd. and 290, New homes in Blackhorse, Cypress Creek Lakes, and Bridgelands are mostly in the $300's to $400's on up.

Oh, I see. The areas mostly south of 290 are cookie cutter (Copperfiled, along W. Little York, 529, Fry Road). So, those heavily wooded areas are a part of Cy-Fair, didn't know that.

[mrfootball]

I just did a search on 'Bridgeland' in HAR.com

Cheapest house available on market right now is $339,900, most expensive was $549,950.

http://www.har.com

Same area, Blackhorse

Cheapest house on the market $215,000, most expensive $836,000

Blackhorse

I personally prefer the wooded area of Cypress (between 290 and 249...stretching over towards Champions).

[Trae]

Then why does Bridgeland's website say 160's on up to the 320's.

[mrfootball]

I dunno. Call them.

I suspect they'll have million dollar homes there at some point. Towne Lake will too.

[Trae]

Wow, 750,000 people but only 100,000 students.

[Mom22Blessings]

The website said it but that doesn't mean the houses in that range are on the market yet.

[mrfootball]

I imagine they'll have a number of price ranges, just like other planned communities. For the most part, right now its the $200-$400 range home market that's hot. Whereas about 3 years ago, the hot thing in Houston was the $150-$200k market. This likely reflects the current trend.

I'll add that the surrounding neighborhoods around Bridgeland (Blackhorse, Cypress Creek Lakes, etc) are all fairly nice, with home prices averaging around $300k

[Houston1stWordOnTheMoon]

Hmmm all this growth. I wonder how long it will be before the people with all the extra capitol, that are interested in good schools, start to move away to other areas where the teacher to student ratio is better?

[Trae]

I imagine they'll have a number of price ranges, just like other planned communities. For the most part, right now its the $200-$400 range home market that's hot. Whereas about 3 years ago, the hot thing in Houston was the $150-$200k market. This likely reflects the current trend.

I'll add that the surrounding neighborhoods around Bridgeland (Blackhorse, Cypress Creek Lakes, etc) are all fairly nice, with home prices averaging around $300k

I think it is also because the Houston home prices are increasing more and more, making the 200k-400k home prices more acceptable than they were 3-5 years ago.

[PureAuteur]

I wouldn't worry too much about those price estimates. In about two years all of those homes way out there are going to be worth A LOT less. Cy-Fair is really building too many schools unnecessarily, because they're basing it all on forecasts based on the potential size of these neighborhoods once they are fully sold out. I guarantee you that Bridgeland will never sell out, nor will Blackhorse, or any of those new neighborhoods past Fry Rd. I drove through there a year ago and then again recently, and not much has changed. The houses simply are not selling, but this is normal, because all that growth was planned around 2002-2003, right in the middle of the housing boom. The only part of Cy-Fair that will hold its value is all the stuff directly to the east and west of 249 from 1960 past Louetta, and also the north Cypress area around N. Eldridge and Grant (Rock Creek, Longwood, etc.)

MrFootball, you forgot about Jersey Village, one of the original 3 high schools, which has the highest income range of any high school in Cy-Fair. JV has students in near poverty and students who could be living in multi-million dollar homes in the back of Jersey Village, which is considered upper class. Of course, those kids usually go to private schools.

[Trae]

You see, Cinco Ranch (7500 acres) started at a good time, because it went right through the housing boom, and the last sections are being built off. Firethorne came right at the end of the housing boom, but now homebuilders are almost struggling with selling new homes. But it is only 1400 acres.

Bridgeland (10,000 acres) got started at the end of the housing bust. This place is larger than Cinco Ranch. It is only smaller than the Woodlands. They say it will be complete by 2020, but I am thinking it would take a little longer.

How large is Blackhorse?

[mrfootball]

I wouldn't worry too much about those price estimates. In about two years all of those homes way out there are going to be worth A LOT less. Cy-Fair is really building too many schools unnecessarily, because they're basing it all on forecasts based on the potential size of these neighborhoods once they are fully sold out. I guarantee you that Bridgeland will never sell out, nor will Blackhorse, or any of those new neighborhoods past Fry Rd. I drove through there a year ago and then again recently, and not much has changed. The houses simply are not selling, but this is normal, because all that growth was planned around 2002-2003, right in the middle of the housing boom. The only part of Cy-Fair that will hold its value is all the stuff directly to the east and west of 249 from 1960 past Louetta, and also the north Cypress area around N. Eldridge and Grant (Rock Creek, Longwood, etc.)

Seriously. I don't know quite where to start.

Cy-Fair is really building too many schools unnecessarily, because they're basing it all on forecasts based on the potential size of these neighborhoods once they are fully sold out.

The District, is growing at approximately 5,000 students per year. They have yet to overestimate growth in this area. Every year actual growth has exceeded original estimates. So far they've managed growth about as well as you possibly could, avoiding massive overcrowding. It's growing so fast, they've actually had to move up their timetable a full year for the new HS (Cypress Ranch) in the area in question (Blackhorse)

I guarantee you that Bridgeland will never sell out, nor will Blackhorse, or any of those new neighborhoods past Fry Rd.

They estimate that Bridgeland (a community that will be the size of the Woodlands) will sell out in 25 years. The Woodlands has yet to sell out in its 30+ years of existance. Blackhorse sales and sales in other area developments (Cypress Creek Lakes, Lakes of Fairhaven, Leyland Shores, Fairfield) continue at a brisk pace. There are more developments (i.e. Towne Lake, etc) on the way. Simply do a zip code (77433) search and discover for yourself.

I wouldn't worry too much about those price estimates. In about two years all of those homes way out there are going to be worth A LOT less.

How could you possibly know that? Considering this development will have its own Town Center, and another Town Center is opening in Towne Lake...the much ballyhoooed "Town Center" effect would serve to increase values even further anchoring the area. Town Centers notwithstanding, home prices are rising, not falling. Most of the stuff going in right around there is $$$. The biggest threat to continued development of the area, is going to be that 290 will become unworkable for commuters.

The only part of Cy-Fair that will hold its value is all the stuff directly to the east and west of 249 from 1960 past Louetta, and also the north Cypress area around N. Eldridge and Grant (Rock Creek, Longwood, etc.)

I live in Longwood and agree that this part of the district is nicely situated, there are some really nice wooded neighborhoods in this area, custom homes, great schools and excellent retail (Vintage Park) opening up nearby.

I think if Jersey Village can fight off the encroachment of more multi-family housing, its relatively close proximity to the Beltway and the city as well as its being in CFISD will continue to keep home prices strong. There are (as you said) some very nice neighborhoods in JV. I believe it is also incorporated, so that's a major plus for that area.

When projecting suburban property values, you have to look at the District from a HS zone point of view. The areas with fewer apts and higher concentrations of nice neighborhoods are going to be more solid. The Cypress Woods zone is solid. Cy Creek is fairly solid. The new Cypress Ranch zone will be solid as well because just about all of the homes in that zone are in nice expensive neighborhoods. Cy Fair will lose a lot of its nicest neighborhoods to Cypress Woods and will probably take a little dip, but it will take some nice neighborhoods from Cy Falls which will offset some of that.

Overall, the district (which faces challenges like Katy, Klein, and Fort Bend) seems to be handling it about as well as could be expected.

[KAHLA FAN 101]

Wow, that's a big school district. I meam the demographics have to be big to allow the building of two new high schools. Katy is at 50,000 (220,000 in the district) now, and the fastest growing in the district.

Isn't half of Cy-Fair lower income housing, and the other half brand spanking new cookie cutter suburban homes.

No i mean there are some homes that are old but they are big. I house are the newer but i see more old homes than new homes sometimes. So answer to that is no

[Trae]

Mr. Football, the Bridgelands is less than half the size of the Woodlands. The Woodlands is 27,000 acres. Bridgelands is 10,000 acres (about half of it in Cy-Fair I.S.D.).

[mrfootball]

This should answer your earlier question, Trae.

Swank development

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/busine...ff/3397609.html

One of Houston's newest planned residential developments is starting to take shape. General Growth Properties, owner of Bridgeland, is laying out the streets, burying power lines and carving out lots for the initial phases of this 20-year project, comprising more than 10,000 acres straddling the proposed Grand Parkway south of U.S. 290.

A total of 580 home sites are ready for builders, which will be chosen within the next 60 days, said Joseph Necker Jr., senior vice president and general manager for the project.

Model homes in the first village, called the Shores, should be up by March.

The developers said nearby high-end subdivisions like Coles Crossing and Stonegate are almost sold out, creating an opportunity for Bridgeland's higher-end homes.

Peter Houghton, vice president for residential land sales for Bridgeland, said after a couple of years of moderately priced homes dominating the sales market, he's seeing a return to the upper

echelon.

"The lower end has been so saturated," he said.

Further evidence of that was KB Home's announcement last week that it was also moving up to this end of the market with a line of homes designed by style icon Martha Stewart.

In line with the tonier image it hopes to achieve, Bridgeland won't have overhead power lines

[Trae]

Highend Stonegate?? What...those homes in there are pretty cheap. Coles Crossing is a different story. Many high-end homes there.

Those Martha Stewart homes are being built in WoodCreek Reserve across from Firethorne in Katy. Haven't seen them, but saw the signs.

[mrfootball]

Majority of Stonegate homes range from the $400k to $160's, the same range as Firethorne.

Coles Crossing is much nicer, IMO, with homes up to the $800's.

[KatieDidIt]

In about two years all of those homes way out there are going to be worth A LOT less.

Have you not been observing building costs and the continuing rise in property values in the satellite burbs??? The trend of flight from central Houston?? The population boom that central Houston can't support, and the fact that the majority of that boom can't afford central Houston???

[Trae]

The same people who made Coles Crossing are developing Firethorne. I also like how they kept those trees. Reminds me of WoodCreek. To bad Firethorne was build on just plains of nothing, but across the street there are forests. And no, they never had to take down any trees.

[mrfootball]

Trae. For a highschooler you seem to be quite knowledgeable about developments. Are your parents Realtors or Developers?

Rock Creek is a custom home community in Cypress Woods zone $300's to $1 million plus.

[Trae]

No, but I have a neighbor who works for Keller Williams. That's about it. I am interested in the realtor/developing business. So I know a lot about it.

Cy-Woods will be a good high school. Are there any apartments zoned to it, because it looks like it is taking the fate of Seven Lakes with aboslutely no apartments zoned.

[mrfootball]

Longwood is located in the Cypress Woods zone (on Louetta b/w 249 and 290), Longwood features a 27 Hole Golf Course

Longwood Golf Club

Home prices in Longwood range from the $170s to over $1 millon.

[Trae]

You say 249 and I was wondering how far north until it stops being a freeway and is it being constructed up there by Tomball to freeway standards?

[mrfootball]

Stable Gate is located in the Cypress Woods zone

This neighborhood features horse stables and riding pens.

Prices from the high $200's to the $700's

Trae - 249 Freeway currently ends at Spring Cypress.

[brijonmang]

Longwood is located in the Cypress Woods zone (on Louetta b/w 249 and 290), Longwood features a 27 Hole Golf Course

This house is practically my backyard neighbor. It's not youuur house is it?