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Reviving Galveston's Economy


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Galveston isn't DEAD by any means. Unfortunately, it's not exactly booming, as its tourism industry has been battered by both a hurricane and a recession. Heck, right now, I'm not even talking pre-WWII levels or pre-1900 levels, I'm talking pre-2008 levels.

 

Have you been recently?

 

Galveston hasn't been pre-1900 level of booming since 1899!  That's a fact.

I'd say we've they've caught up to pre-2008.  The big difference now is there are about 10,000 fewer people living full time on the island.

 

But it does need some additional retail growth + some additional white collar jobs.

 

I still think the issuance of a TIRZ for the Strand areas and the doubling up of convention center space coupled with bay to gulf transit (eg: trolleys) would be good.  Add in a business incubator that focuses on global shipping/freight and transoceanic issues and things might start to move faster.  The problem is MOVING forward from just concept.  Who will do those things?  The Moody's?  The Mitchells (probably not with the father passing away), the Sealy's?  They're already so heavily invested in the UTMB complex.

 

Perhaps UTBM can jump on the post-Ebola (post-USA ...so far) scare and get some additional dollars for more Biocontainment Level-4 stuff on the isle?  Why not?

 

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Have you been recently?

Disclaimer: I was last in Galveston March 2012, for a wedding, so over two and a half years ago.

So, 10,000 people are no longer living on the island? Besides the Pointe apartments, some cheap garden-style apartments demolished after Ike and a few other casualties, how many abandoned houses are there on the island?

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I wouldn't say that many abandoned homes.  Galveston lost nearly 100% of the government subsidized housing - which is being rebuilt...maybe in the near future.  Some homes were swept away on the far west end.  Other than that, I guess perhaps there are simply fewer people living in some homes?  You know Galveston - great on one street, complete dump on another - its possible that homes that previously had 2+ families living in them now have only 1 in a few areas?

 

Overall though I'd say that Downtown is doing well in terms of residential.  Galveston has a healthy proportion of mixed-use building on and near the Strand, most have residential in some capacity or scale in them.  Most of the buildings downtown are also pretty nice - high rents for the most part.

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The 2014 report Economic Impact of Tourism on Galveston Island says that "A total of 10,205 jobs were sustained by visitors to Galveston Island in 2013. This included 7,879 direct and 2,326 indirect and induced jobs.   Approximately 33.6% (1 in 3) of all jobs on the Island were sustained by tourism."

 

10,205 / .336 =

30,372 jobs, 2013.

 

Using the Census Bureau's LEHD online interface, we can find the total jobs for other years.   

30,408 primary jobs, 2011
29,531 primary jobs, 2010
26,807 primary jobs, 2009
30,889 primary jobs, 2008
30,853 primary jobs, 2007
33,413 primary jobs, 2006
32,170 primary jobs, 2005
32,250 primary jobs, 2004
33,588 primary jobs, 2003
The database extends back to 2002, when there were said to be 33,889 primary jobs.  Of those, 55% were held by people who lived onshore, and 45% by Galvestonians.  
 
In 2011, not only had employment shrunk by ten percent within the decade, but, of that smaller number, only 32% lived on the island.
 
Shrub Kempner told the Chronicle in 2012 that Galveston needed to recapture the residencies of the people who worked there already and THEN worry about econ. development.  But with increasingly obsolete housing stock, relatively high unemployment even after thousands of poor left for greener pastures, a dwindling of quality market retailers for non-tourists, high insurance premiums, relatively high costs to develop infill, and the generational track record of New Orleans-style genteel stagnation, why should homeowners, much less business owners, want to invest themselves there?
 
I believe in Galveston.  I also like old houses.  But like an old house, it's a money pit.  We keep suggesting that the Texans who live in functioning city regions keep it alive on the dole as a kind of crowdsourced plaything, but at what point must we recognize that the money and even the tax incentives would go farther in a city with a functioning, import-replacing economy?
 
Charisma is a poor guide to character.  We've learned that over and over again.  But confident charm is so deep in our natures that we go back to it again and again, like dogs to dog-vomit.  Or if you prefer, a temperature adjustment does mush more work on shifting a glacier than jackhammers will.  Thinking of economic development in terms of little well-placed jackhammers won't help Galveston adjust for the 21st century.  To actually change the climate, we'd probably have to tinker with the basis of the pricing signals that govern life on the island.  This could be the subject of significant innovation.  Happy to detail real proposals if needed.
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The housing stock is up for replacement partially because of primarily wood construction (or at least that's been my conception), and the decline of houses is accelerated because of the humidity. It doesn't have to be replaced with super-dense townhomes or chintzy cookie cutter houses, but it does need to be dealt with over time.

Nor does the city have to be "reinvented" in some dramatic way that loses its character. Take Waco, for instance--it had stagnated for years (generations, natch--at one time, it was a major competitor with places like Dallas for skyscrapers and whatnot...Dallas!) but now seems to be finally getting out of it with a relatively new hospital and restaurants around it, investment around downtown, and development up and down the Interstate, along with new subdivisions (and trust me, subdivision growth in Waco has been very slow compared to the rest of Texas). And that new stadium too. It's not going to be even like Austin anytime soon, but it's changing.

Because of the island, it is difficult to add new subdivisions like any other cities--so maybe some urban renewal is necessary!

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  • 4 weeks later...

I purchased a condo in Galveston about 3 years ago and have absolutely no regrets.  Sure, it's not Florida but it's only an hour from my full time home in Houston.  If you adventure off of the seawall and the Strand, you will find great restaurants bars that are frequented by the locals.  The locals are very friendly once they know you live there.

 

Galveston is not a rich town and it lives off of the ups and downs of the Houston economy.  One you accept it for what it is you will enjoy it. 

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