houston-development

UH OH! unfortunately, i cannot and will not elaborate. because of events that have unfolded in the past week, it doesn't look too good. in theory, it can/will move forward. having said that, there is a heartbeat but it's fading. i know im talking out of the both sides of my mouth but it is what it is. and now i return to my self-imposed sabbatical.

17,000 wasnt an exaggeration nor did i ever imply it was. i was giving you the benefit of the doubt and was using YOUR 11k and change as an example. im not disregarding anything, im posting information that backs up my statements. sometimes they conflict but overall its the same message. its you who hasnt shown anything other than your opinion. last time i looked, an opinion isnt fact, so stop acting like yours is. on a side note, this is my last post. nothing personal against anyone in particular and i dont mean to appear singling you out, houston. i dont gain anything posting inside information (allegedly) here. 1) im helping my competitors by volunteering information they otherwise wouldnt know (be it directly or someone tells someone kinda thing) 2) regardless of my previous track record, ill still get slammed. i acknowledge that im bringing this onto myself, which plays into this decision. its just not worth it. overall, y'all are a group of great guys and i wish each and every one of you the best in life. since this has gone way off topic (sorry mods), i might as well give one last tid bit. the shriners center, located on braeswood and brompton, will be bidded on by 2 - 4 groups next monday. the winning bidder will probably pay +/- $65 psf for 7.75 A. they will not close until jan of '08 and have around $2m of hard and released earnest money. have a wonderful day

i met with them a couple of years ago about that site. at the time, they were planning on building some type of medical / pharmaceutical (sp?) school there.

you must have missed this post that i made: its a couple of posts above and not hard to find.if you want to disregard ADS and o'connor, more power to you. every apartment developer i know takes their word, especially considering how much their services cost. and by the way, a lot of the properties listed "under construction" broke ground several months ago and will begin leasing shortly. some have already started pre-leasing and waiting for their COs. their timetables are all scattered and you cannot just assume they all broke ground at the same time. heres a clip from o'connor's apartment forecast:

but that defeats the whole purpose of DWTP; then it would be something like POWTP (pulling over while taking pictures). and wheres the fun in that?!?

im not exaggerating nor getting defensive, im backing my statements up with numbers from services that do this research as a business. they are not always right but ill take their extensive research over your "guess" (nothing personal). i guarantee (which is the first time ive said that on these boards) that there will be more than 6,000 - 7,000 units delievered this year. i can think of 5,000 just off the top of my head that will be leasing by summer but what do i know....

i honestly hope you are right and my gut feeling is wrong.

ive negelected this thread way too long.

not all, just the ones i talk about

there very well could "only" be 11k units this year. rather than taking 3 years to absorb, it will only take a two and a half. regardless, its a crap load and we will be a renters market. if you honestly believe there will be a positive absorbtion, more power to you. i mean, we had negative absorbtion last year, so why would this year be better?

theres a few you can take with a grain of salt (camdens superblock) but i see a majority of these deals going forward. if we dont pick up north of 50k jobs, its going to be a renters market for some time to come. if the lender lends, the builder will build

on paper, your theory is correct. however, you are demolishing affordable housing for $1.50+ rents, so its not off-setting each other. additionally, per ADS, there were 11,000 units (a majority market rate, NOT tax credit) under construction at the end of last year with 17,000 proposed. therefore, we most likely will see about 17,000 market rate units available this year, as i stated earlier edited to add (and hopefully this works): UNDER CONSTRUCTION Central: Camden City Centre I / Camden 379 493P Montrose/Museum City Plaza / Koontz McCombs 404 493J Montrose/Museum Metropole / Cambridge 290 492X Inner Loop W/Greenway Camden Plaza / Camden 271 492W Inner Loop W/Greenway Alexan Kirby / Trammell Crow 230 492Y Inner Loop W/Greenway Alexan Main Street / Trammell Crow 286 532L Med Center/Bellaire Mosaic / Wood Partners 393 533B Med Center/Bellaire Taylor Heights / Martin Fein 326 493F Heights Southwest: Gables 6464 / Gables 163 490R Galleria Alexan Post Oak / Trammell Crow 394 491R Galleria Woodlake Site / Sueba 265 490S Woodlake/Westheimer Broadstone Memorial / Alliance Comm 400 488C West Memorial/Briar Fst Portico at West Eight/Richfield 510 489V Westchase Lakemont / Verde 312 526E Fort Bend Sienna Plantation Site / Martin Fein 270 609Z Fort Bend Wynhaven at Fort Bend / Trammell Crow 300 571S Fort Bend Brazos Ranch / Judwin 308 605R Richmond/Rosenberg Villas at River Park/Internacional 300 607J Richmond/Rosenberg Northwest: Broadstone Lofts W 18th/Alliance Com 304 452S Brookhollow Alexan Bunker Hill / Trammell Crow 398 450X Spring Branch Torrey Chase Site I/ Bohannon 232 331W FM 1960 W/Champions Conservatory Champions Fst** 190 330T FM 1960 W/Champions Cypress Pointe / Woodmark 228 329P FM 1960 W/Champions Stoneleigh Spring Cypress II/Woodmark 242 330B FM 1960 W/Champions 290 & Skinner Site / New Quest 252 367F FM 1960 W/Steeplechase Boardwalk @ Town Center/ Cambridge 450 251G Woodlands/Far North Abbey Woodlands / Abbey Res 360 251U Woodlands/Far North Conservatory Alden Bridge** 190 216K Woodlands/Far North Alexan Woods / Trammell Crow 280 252W Woodlands/Far North River Pointe III / Martin Fein 224 Conr Conroe Northeast: Villas @ Foxbrick II 70 334U FM 1960 E/IAH Airport Wynhaven @ Deerbrook / Trammell Crow 360 335T FM 1960 E/IAH Airport Lafayette Village* / Dwayne Henson 250 457Y Far East Stone Park II / Greystar 276 457U Far East Fall Creek III / Martin Fein 246 375Z Far East Magnolia Cove Site / DMC 192 337G Lake Houston/Kingwood Southeast: Anna Dupree* 176 573D Hwy 288/South Carrington Park @ Sabo / Davis 258 576Y Gulfgate/Almeda Mall Tuscan Lakes II / Martin Fein 204 659B Clear Lake Bayview**/ CIS 240 461Y Baytown Village @ Morningstar**/DMA Dev 78 TEXC Texas City ====== Total (41 properties) 11,501 PROPOSED: Central: Mid Town Site I&II / Camden 600 Montrose/Museum Post Mid Town III / Post 136 Montrose/Museum Camden City Centre II / Camden 263 Montrose/Museum 4310 Dunlavy I&II / Marom 486 Montrose/Museum City Place / Farb 183 Montrose/Museum Alexan Westheimer Sq / TCR 244 Montrose/Museum Museum Site / Grayco 219 Montrose/Museum Gables River Oaks I / Gables 378 Inner Loop W/Greenway Gables River Oaks II / Gables 350 Inner Loop W/Greenway HISD Site / Morgan & TCR Commercial 600 Inner Loop W/Greenway Comfort Inn Site / DMC 309 Inner Loop W/Greenway The Belle Meade / Grayco 119 Inner Loop W/Greenway Verandah @ Meyerland II / Verandah 174 Med Center/Bellaire Genesis Park II / Archstone 400 Med Center/Bellaire OST & Almeda Site /Simmons Vedder 304 Med Center/Bellaire OST & Kirby Site / Simmons Vedder 293 Med Center/Bellaire N Braeswood Site / Grayco 344 Med Center/Bellaire Washington & Waugh / Morgan 236 Heights Park Tower / Finger 347 Inner Loop East Southwest: Regency Arms Site / Marom 350 Galleria Gables 6464 Phase II / Gables 220 Galleria Alexan Voss / Trammell Crow 400 Galleria Eldridge/Briar Fst / Simmons Vedder 330 West Memorial/Briar Fst Lofts on Briar Forest / Guefen 352 West Memorial/Briar Fst Camden Oak Crest II Camden 300 Westchase Bridgegate / Hettig 324 Fort Bend Shadowbrooke II / Cornerbrook Dev 300 Fort Bend West Bellfort at Hwy 6 / Funding Inc 288 Fort Bend Northwest: Nexus Site / Gross 300 Brookhollow Enclave @ Tidwell*/Hettig 40 Brookhollow Northbrooke II / Cornerbrook Dev 260 FM 1960 W/Champions Torrey Chase Site II/ Bohannon 204 FM 1960 W/Champions San Cierra / Sueba 362 FM 1960 W/Champions Vintage Oaks / Sueba 350 FM 1960 W/Champions Cypresswood & 249 / Michael Stevens 324 FM 1960 W/Champions Stoneleigh at Ella / Woodmark 400 FM 1960 W/Champions Paramatta & I-45 / Woodmark 250 FM 1960 W/Champions Wynhaven @ Grant Rd / Trammell Crow 372 FM 1960 W/Steeplechase Huffmeister Cypress N Houston / Davis 250 FM 1960 W/Steeplechase Alexan Somerall / Trammell Crow 368 Bear Creek/Copperfield Barker Cypress & 529 / Davis 250 Bear Creek/Copperfield Alexan Yorktown / Trammell Crow 306 Bear Creek/Copperfield Mason & Oak Pk Trail / Judwin 308 Katy/Far West Foxlake Drive Site / Beeler 320 Katy/Far West Vizcaya @ Park Harbor II / 276 Katy/Far West Legends @ Cinco Ranch 270 Katy/Far West Landmark at Katy / Landmark 240 Katy/Far West Mason Park / Today Realty Advisors 312 Katy/Far West The Mansions Woodland / Westerm Rim 250 Woodlands/Far North Lakes @ Westview II & III / Realm 372 Conroe Wedgewood Falls/ Allen Acq 120 Conroe Northeast: Green Pines II* / SPM 220 Eastex Frwy/Near NE Waterside Court*/Hettig 118 Northline/Aldine Fair Lake Cove* / Greater Coastal 200 Lake Houston/Kingwood Harbor Walk II / Chancellor 100 Lake Houston/Kingwood Southeast: Landmark City Park / Landmark 240 Hwy 288/South Shadow Creek Ranch II / Davis 300 Hwy 288/South South Shore Harbor Site / Flournoy 300 Clear Lake Nasa Road I Site / Davis 250 Clear Lake ====== Total (59 properties) 17,116

now thats funny! as i said earlier in this thread (oh, i dunno, 3 or 4 pages back), this deal will move forward... its only a matter of time.

oh dear, i think we started something. rule one of DWTP there is no DWTP

Note: This post originally appeared in the Allen House: it was nice knowing you - thread and was moved to an on-topic thread. thats what happens when you build 17,000 units. yes, you read that correctly... we are expecting seventeen thousand units to come on line this year. *coughbloodbathcough*

oops, thought i cleaned all of the evidence

having said that, when theres a glut of class "a" properties, they start offering concessions and reduced rents. they need warm bodies in the units and will practically give it away.. 2 or 3 months free, prorated, zero deposit, and with a free flat screen tv?!? no problem.. they end up taking people that would normally rent in a "b" property. their net effect is essentially the same, so why wouldnt they move into a brand-spanking-new apartment? who cares about the income requirements when their occupancy is blood red. so then the "b"s have to start dropping rents, raising concessions, etc. just to keep their current residents. in turn, "c" residents start upgrading to "b"s. its a domino effect. obviously this is a worst case scenario but is realistic. heck, we saw it just 18 months ago

boris, a suggestion from a well seasoned veteran of DWTP; roll down the window, sick your camera outside of the car, and snap like theres no tomorrow. so what if you take 20 pictures of the same scene, at least a couple should come out well centered. disclaimer - this message does not condone hands-free driving while not looking at the road

when i read the article this morning, that was the first thought that crossed my mind. there is a HUGE glut of newly constructed apartments within a mile radius of this site. if you are a renter, i bet you will find some great deals in that area within the next 12 months

DWTP i love it ps - heaven forbid if anything bad happens to those who take part in this euphoric experience, dont blame me

: standing ovation :

last i heard, atlas signed up the required reservations and fremont made the loan.

i agree with you

i know this will appear to be talking out of both sides of my mouth, but it is what it is. 1) with an unknown timeline and if rail was or was not going down richmond, prospective retailers were hesitant to commit. if the rail line was to stop in front of the site, there was concern of how long construction would take and the damage it hypothetically could create for opening businesses. there are retail guys here that know more than i but from what ive heard in the past, the first year makes or breaks a business. its a rock and a hard place scenario. 2) without rail, the site became less appealing. with the clock ticking down to zero, crow had to make a decision. from a responsible development perspective, they screwed the pooch in my humble opinion. however, on the other hand, from a business perspective, they did the right thing. houston... gotta love it

dont know if i mentioned this earlier but FWIW, no retailers were going to commit to the site without knowing about the rail situation. time was of the essence, since crow and morgan had a sizeable deposit up, and had to make a decision. costco came in at a great number, so they had to take it. dont blame morgan because their input on the commercial side was minimal. lets just say i seriously doubt they will ever partner up with crow commercial again.