UtterlyUrban

True.

Which is why Warren's and La Carafe have both been around for decades - from before Market Square was hot and fashionable in the '60s, through the valley of the '80s, and on into today.

There's going to be more staying power for more places, though, as more and more people actually live downtown. My experience is that singles and couples living in a smaller place within an easy walk will often treat the neighborhood places like an extension of their living rooms.

I fully agree with you.

The problem is oil markets turn on a dime. At least analyst at Bloomberg thinks oil will be back to $80 by Q4 of 2015. Al Naimi is an absolutely unflappable card player.

True.

I have also seen predictions of $30 oil and $70 oil by 2016. Bottom line: nobody knows. Real easte Developers need to simply make and educated guess like everyone else. We shall see who bets on $80 oil in two years and who does not based on what projects start over then next six months and which do not.

I'm glad someone else has raised this point, because I didn't want to be one of the first. What do falling oil prices have to do with hospitality, residential, and non-energy-related office construction? This question is partly rhetorical, but partly honest because I know a lot of knowledgeable people visit this forum. A "sky is falling" attitude seems to be pervasive in a lot of these threads and I'm curious to know why.

For Heavan's sake! Hospitality has much to do with energy prices in sectors of this town. While it is true that downtown has a bit of a cushion from conventions, I would suggest that much of the "core" hotel bookings downtown are related to "business" people..., lawyers, sales, PR, consultants, and company employees from other offices, I would further suggest that many of those folks are related to energy companies (downtown). If those same companies need to cutback due to the price of oil, descetionary travel if one of the first things cut.

With the decline in oil pricing, if it stays at this level for a protracted time, I would expect that hotel bookings downtown from "core" business people, will fall. How much they will fall is open for debate but if oil stays in the 50's or lower for a year or two, the folks traveling in on business with all the entertainment money for dinners and booze, will shrink.

IMO downtown Houston is not yet a tourist or convention market, it is a business market and is subject to the whim of the local economy. Perhaps one day, conventions and tourism will dominate downtown. But, for Now, I think that the business cycle is what drives core profits at downtown hotels.

I was told March

hotel demand will still be high since conventions don't depend on the cost of petroleum

Good point.

But, I can say from personal experience that finding a hotel room in downtown Houston has been easy for the last 20 years. BUT, over the last 5 years, it has been more challenging. There are weeks that Houston is simply out of rooms anywhere near downtown. I know that houston has done a terrific job of attracting convention business and that business does provide a steady flow of room bookings. But, let's face it, energy-related business bookings provides the core, no?

A good mayor. A good citizen.

RIP, Sir.

Thank you.

I heard from a higher-up at Gensler that there's a possibility this wouldn't be built. He wouldn't give me any details, so I don't know how strong that possibility is. I hope not very strong.

With $54 oil, I would assume that every developer in town is looking much harder at every planned project that they have and is trying to cypher what the demand for the project will be in two years.

I would like this hotel to be built but, what does hotel demand in downtown look like in two years (after the two weeks of the Super Bowl)? The answer to that will be significantly dictated by where one thinks energy prices are going.

The party may be continuing. Houston added 16,000 jobs in November and 125,000 since November of last year. Of course all numbers are subject to revision in March of next year, but so far it's been a good year in 2014.

Yes, it has been a good year.

Fortunately, oils only started its fall in the last few months.

It's too early for the slide to really impact jobs. It could take a year or more before that happens. If oil falls further and stays there for a protracted time, that is when there will be big problems locally.

I expect that I'm possibly the only person here who will miss having a retail post office and distribution center at the current site. So it goes.

Actually, you are not. Current site or not, having a big central retail post office location is something I will miss too.

That said, some of the local oil barons must be kicking themselves and saying, "We only needed to cut production 3% to balance supply with demand. Now, prices have dropped 40%, so whatever share we would have gained has caused us to lose 35% in revenues. What were we thinking?"

But the airlines should benefit.

If supply was only out of demand balance by 3%, why would the price fall by 40%?

The issue here seems to be Nigerian oil and Asia markets. A very insightful article appeared in the WSJ last Saturday. There was a big surplus in oil (low demand globally). It also spoke of Nigerian oil and how it's "natural market" in the US was closed due to fracking and US domestic production --- no need for us to buy it. So, Nigeria went to Asia and the Saudis freaked out. They did not wish to lose market share in Asia. Then, add the fact that the U.S. producers received permission to export crude from the administration (something prohibited since the 1970's apparently) and the Saudis would take no more.....

Good article.

I am skeptical that a tweet and other news are linked but, I guess it could be.

Here is what I believe:

An upscale dry goods retail chain is coming to downtown again. I have no idea who, what, or when. But, with affluent population growth in DT, mid-town, and EaDo, coupled with 100,000 office commuters, a "smaller scale, urban concept" store by one or several retail chains could make a splash and be profitable.

I've been working in downstream engineering since about 1993. So far every time crude prices have gotten low since then it has decimated our industry. I still hold out some hope that things may be different this time. I don't foresee any layoffs in the department I manage anytime soon but that cold change with just one project cancellation.

I wish you well.

But, the boom/bust cycle has been going on in the oil patch since it was founded. Nothing new here.

Hopefully, oil will not fall further and there will be only a limited number of projects cancelled. That would certainly be a good (and quite possible) outcome.

I don't work in the oil industry but I'm interested in the dynamics nonetheless. Here's my question: how can we have a boom when the price is high and not have a bust when the price is low, as some of these articles are suggesting?

A recent article in the WSJ referenced the "collapse" of oil and suggests that at least one source is predicting $50 oil. It is an insightful article about the global demand for oil and market share. It was in Saturday's WSJ.

A sustained period of profitable oil development in North America has created this boom in Houston. If it happens, A sustained period of $50-ish dollar oil will, indeed, cause a big problem the local economy here in Houston.

Nah, window units, its a very old building that was never updated. The units even have those old Murphy beds in the walls.

Sounds fairly priced at $500.

It would be kinda cool if the new owners, moments before the wrecking ball swings, would curate the mosaic and incorporate it into the new building they probably intend to build at some point in the future.

There were people walking around outside and inside the ground floor a few days ago - project is still going forward, albeit slowly.

That is good to hear.

Pretty amazing rent price for such a prime downtown location huh? Only drawback was no parking, I considered living here at one time.

There is no central air either, right?

That was an El Tiempo hybrid restaurant in the early 2000's. Didn't last very long. Its interesting how we go through these cycles. Back in the late 90's and early 2000's this part of town was going crazy. There were restaurants and bars opening all of the time. It was pretty incredible to see so many people downtown most nights of the week and especially weekends. I was running Cabo's at night just across the street at the other end of Prairie and Travis. The Mercury room was going great and the dancing Marlin,Soleros, State Bar, along with several others in the Rice, Tryst, Deans, the Black Cat, along with all of the bars on the square and several on the north end of downtown that I can't even remember all of their names. And then everyone moved to Washington Avenue. Now they're back but more solid bars and restaurants seem to be hanging on. It will be interesting who has staying power, and how long before the next cycle and where the new scene will take place. Trust me its always moving from Richmond to Shepherd plaza to Downtown to Washington to Midtown,and back to downtown. Wouldn't be surprised to see it jump over to Eado with all of the old warehouses. They already have several bars, and many more residents now. with the proximity to the super bowl parties at the Convention center it would be a natural.

Agreed.

"Bar scenes" tend to move in trends. What is needed downtown is not "trendy" bars but rather some establishments that have more staying power like, say, hearsay or maybe honeymoon cafe. Bars open and close..... "Neighborhood pubs" have more staying power.

The corner mart is what attracts them

Not really.

It's the super-sized single beers and smokes available for purchase in the store that attracts them.

Here is my prediction:

If oil drops below $55 for 6 months or more residential real estate will drop by 20%.

There is no Montrose TIRZ. That's the point of this annexation.

THAT is the only thing that makes sense to me.

So would Montrose be called Midtown?

Montown

Here's the scoop, received directly from Houston First Corporation in a newsletter email this morning:

110-year-old William L. Foley House off the premises at the corner of Avenida de las Americas and Capitol Street and to a parking lot across the street. The two-story blue residence will be moved the week of December 8-12 but the exact date is still be determined.

Built in 1904, this is the former residence of the founder of Foley Dry Goods Company, the precursor of the now defunct Foley Department Store chain. The home is one of the final residences of the Quality Hill neighborhood in downtown. (The other is the Arthur B. Cohen House, which will be incorporated into the Nau Center complex.)

Houston First is donating the Foley House to Incarnate Word Academy and Annunciation Church. The stately home will eventually be restored and relocated behind the church, which is the oldest in Houston dating back to 1871.

Oh, for heavens sake! What on earth will the church do with it an, exactly how will they restore it and maintain it?

"Hey, we got all this money to build a cultural center! But the historic foley house won't fit! Whadda we gonna do?"

"I know! give it to the church's to stick behind their building.... Ya.... That's it! Great place for it..... Great place...."

They used it as a construction office during the 806 Main refurb. Hopefully they are working to fix it up for future use, but they might just be dismantling their offices.

It may be the dismantling.

It would be pretty ironic if they built this cultural center then ended up bulldozing the foley house.

As has been pointed out, a new "plywood, painted black, construction wall" was erected in front of this building a few weeks ago.

As I walked by today, the Plywood door was open as was the actual building door. There was some kind of construction (or destruction) activity going on inside. Could not see anything except miscellaneous tools and carts and shop lights, but could hear the work going on.

Just saying..... Something is up.....

THANK YOU! Fascinating!

The needle is millimeters away from the balloon that is Houston.