JasonDFW

I got here: http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/datapop.html

Where do I go now? Is this the right page? If you don't mine could you show me how to get there?

If you google tamu demographics I think it takes you to this page:

http://recenter.tamu.edu/mreports/

If you click on Houston on the map from there, you'll get the PDF. The direct link is:

http://recenter.tamu.edu/mreports/HoustonSLBay.pdf

Page 11 says that for instance Harris county gets the most poeple from:

1) LA

2) Phoenix

3) San Deigo

4) Chicago

5) OC

The numbers are in the PDF.

Jason

I wonder how many people are moving to Houston from other cities, minus the people moving out? How can I find this information?

You can get this info from the TAMU site for any metro in Texas. It is broken down by county I believe so you can see who went to which county from which county. Google "tamu demographics" without the quotes.

jason

Which route is that? I was speaking of the walk from a currently non-existent building (One Victory Park) to the south side of the Woodall Rogers. I measured it on Mapmyrun.com. Measuring all the way to On The Border makes for a 4/10 mile walk. If you did that in 5 minutes, you might be in the wrong line of work (maybe Olympic sprinter, messenger service...)

I walked today from On The Border to One Victory Park in 5 minutes. I was walking at my normal pace which means I get passed occasional by a lady in heals during the business day. That put the walk time from One Victory Park to the south side of Woodall Rogers at right about 3 minutes. It took about 3 minutes and 15 or 30 seconds to go from On The Border to the House (in Victory), where a crew seemed to be working pretty hard today. The time from the downtown to The House was very short.

My seconds are a bit fuzzy, because I was using my phone but I did wait until the phone flipped to 2:28pm to start my walk. A beautiful fall day in Texas to take the train downtown... mid 70s, sunny, and low humidity. Didn't take too many photos on my walk but I took a few. They were really going to town on the House of Blues building.

Jason

dallas may court them, but houston incorporates them into the fabric of the city.

Well, we got 5 words into the thread before a Houston is better than Dallas post. Things are looking up.

Jason

There is a new article from Steve Brown, the guy who's articles spurred this debate I believe. In there he said that two law firms are moving to these buildings in victory and that it was a good thing for the CBD. He (or someone he interviewed) then said these spaces would be filled by other tenants. Sorry I don't have a link but someone will find it... I have to run.

Jason

Houston is moving very much to the West/Northwest/Southwest. It started with Greenway Plaza and then on to Uptown. Then came the Sharpstown area and the "new" Chinatown. Then the Westchase District formed. Then came the Energy Corridor and Westlake Park. Then Sugarland came in with it's Town Center. Now there's the whole Memorial City/Town and Country makeover. The economic force in Houston is indeed very much west of the CBD but it hasn't killed downtown Houston.

I think you're going to want to acquaint yourself with a force on the opposite side of the Houston CBD. This small petrochemical complex. You know, all those pretty lights at night? I don't know, perhaps billions and billions of $ over there. Some nice paying jobs as well. Once again, it is not just the size (and I have checked my figures again) it is the imbalance.

Jason

The just had a news report where copper thieves are now going into backyards to steal copper out of a/c units. they are also stealing copper phone lines off of telephone poles. The interviewed a lady who said that in the past two weeks her phone has been out twice because of copper thefts. the first time 3 days and the last time for a week.

In Dallas they've stolen a good portion of the copper wires to the highway lights around town. These are on very busy roads, like I35.

Jason

From what I have seen (and I could very easily be wrong on this), it appears that the bulk of tenants moving into Victory are moving from downtown.

This is not the feeling I have from what I've seen. In the articles posted before, even they mention that with one exception no highly sought after space (decent views) are being opened up downtown by Victory.

By the same token, if a downtown tenant wants a suburban location,there is nothing at Victory to keep them in the central city (except that it does appear in photos at least to have a pretty car-centric, suburban-office-park ambience going. ;-)

In the Metroplex at least, there are no 375' residental buildings going up down the street from suburban office parks.

Jason

BUT, I think your theory is based on a bad premise. I see Victory/Uptown as shifting the balance of the economy north out of downtown, not south from the suburbs. How many tenants are moving from the suburbs into Victory/Uptown? How many tenants are moving from downtown into Victory/Uptown?

The center of the economy isn't in downtown, that has been my point. The center of the economy (and population) is in Las Colinas. The Dallas CDB isn't too far from the economic edge of the metroplex. A built up Victory means a shift in that, or at least a slowing of the northern shift.

Also, the areas north of Victory are nearly built out for residential so they're building south of the CBD which I believe helps the CBD.

I guess your sub-premise, if you will, is that downtown Dallas is so unattractive (economically or whatever) that, but for Victory/Uptown, those tenants would be moving to the northern suburbs.

It's become so unattractive geographically, not economically. I'm not saying it is a fabulous downtown, there are many flaws. A lot of them are being worked on aggressively though. But yes, some of them would move to the suburbs, and even more perhaps that'd move to say the Galleria area, which is nearly as bad to the CBD. In general these types of boards are anti-suburbs, but say what you want about (for instance) Frisco. They are a very tough competitor no matter how good the Dallas CBD may become. When you save that 1% transit tax and can throw it at corporations to move there, that is a powerful tool. Of course, nearly everyone has this problem but what most cities also have is another "Southlake" on the south side to counter the pull of Frisco. And there are efforts trying to address that too, but it will be a slow process.

Perhaps SOME of the relocations to Uptown/Victory would have gone to Plano etc instead, but I really doubt if very many would have. If you are currently officed downtown and are shopping your tenancy... in a world without Victory, are many of those tenants really going to choose to move 20-25 miles?

Most of them already live 20-25 miles away, so they wouldn't need to move.

Remember the mantra of real estate: location, location, location. One would presume they were located in downtown to begin with because they wanted/needed to be in or near downtown. If they are willing to relocate north to Victory/Uptown, there must be some reason they prefer inner city Dallas. That tells me that, but for Victory/Uptown, they would more than likely stay downtown. And keep in mind that in a world without Uptown and Victory developments, there might be enough demand in downtown Dallas to allow for moves into newer, fancier buildings downtown.

I understand and agree with your points, but we're already getting newer, fancier buildings downtown (I don't remember ANY before Victory started) and I think they're in part due to the excitement of Victory. Now, I think that holds much more so for Hunt than One Arts for sure, as the arts district buildup is a big player in that.

I may regret saying this, but If I had the choice between these offices moving to a new building in the southwest end of downtown or them going to Victory, I think I'd choose victory because that is slowly connecting two neighborhoods (partially responsible momentum toward a W.R. park) and ultimately I think that will be better for the whole area down there. It's a close call.

Jason

That was not really necessary, now was it, Jason? How about instead of snarky comments, you try explaining the relevance of Dallas' one-sided growth pattern to the question of whether Victory is good or bad for downtown Dallas? Because as far as I can tell, the relevance is zero. If Dallas had perfectly concentric growth and development in all directions, I would still believe (and the evidence strongly suggests) that Victory is bad for downtown Dallas.

Be sure to send me an e-mail in a year. I'm not putting this on Outlook reminder. (I'll have to trust you to be a big man about it and be willing to remind me even though downtown Dallas office occupancy is down. FWIW, one year is really not sufficient. Most of the new office space will not be completed yet and the current space will not yet have been vacated.)

I'm sorry that came off as snarky, honestly it wasn't meant to be so. Just the weakness of the medium. What I'm saying is I'm not surprised my discussion wasn't able to convince you, because you start off with such a diametrically opposite viewpoint on the situation to begin with.

There must be a communication problem though because if you don't understand how the one-sided growth pattern is relevant to the discussion, and makes victory a boost for downtown (shifting the balance of economy southerly in the Metroplex) there is no way I'm going to get my point across.

Jason

Not sure what your point is, Jason. Or its possible relevance to the question of whether Victory hurts or helps downtown Dallas. FWIW I already acknowledged that Dallas (and downtown Dallas in particular) suffers from the poor planning that allowed/encouraged all of the development to go to the north. What more can I say?

I'm not surprised you don't understand the relevance to this topic. That has seemed to be a problem from the beginning. I'm not saying it's the best we can do, I'm saying it is a very positive thing for downtown Dallas. Time will tell. How about we meet here in 1 year and analyze real estate and housing data to see who is right? I'll make an Outlook reminder now.

Jason

Greenway Plaza hurts downtown Houston. Could it have hurt more had it been 20 miles away? Yes, I would say so. Could it have hurt marginally less had it been built adjacent to downtown? Yes, probably so. But it still would have hurt.

This is a very different situation in Houston and I don't believe it is a great comparison. Just to put some scale on the difference, I believe (please correct me I'm not an expert on this) that if you draw a line between the south end of Downtown Dallas and Fort Worth, that there would be ~25 Fortune 500 companies north of that line and zero south of that line. If my numbers are off I doubt they're far off. It's not so much the distance as the northern bias.

jason

Well, I don't think it's particularly good for downtown Dallas to have those two building under construction either. On the contrary. The result of that construction will be significantly higher vacancy rates for downtown Dallas. That, seemingly, is one difference between Dallas and Houston. In Dallas, you just keep building new buildings, the hell with the consequences for the market. Doesn't seem to work quite the same way in Houston. Not sure why.

I believe you're wrong on this as well. We will see in the end whether the vacancy rates rise.

(And the fact that you are hoping that "spillover" from a new, neighboring development will save your downtown sort of proves my point that the initial impact will be damaging to downtown.)

No, not at all. Downtown needed "saving" far before any of this. For the reasons I mentioned above.

With respect, I suspect you know very little about office location decisions by major law firms. They are almost exclusively downtown or very near downtown.

Sorry, I was talking about the HofB not the H&B. Back on the topic of law firms I've found the knowledge of Dallas law firms by others on this board lacking given some earlier comments on this particular topic. To be expected of course.

Jason

The city of Dallas:

This is tough. After all, the Dallas Morning News named Houston as its "Texan of the year" for the city's response to Hurricane Katrina. But within months, Kenny Shaw, director of Dallas' office of emergency management, announced the city would be unable to help shelter evacuees if a major storm hit Houston. Gee, thanks. To be fair, a Dallas County judge later said that the Metroplex would accommodate as many people as needed. Nice attempt at a save, but we're still ticked at Shaw's comments.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ultima...es/4252567.html

So rather than someone saying something to call attention to what would have been a problem you'd much rather be lied to. Typical sheep. Baaaahhh.

But that doesn't take away from the fact that it will still hurt downtown Dallas.

Of course, I've said this already but I think your view is short sighted and wrong. Downtown Dallas is seeing two big tenants build headquarters there today (nothing for the Houston CBD, a big deal for the Dallas CBD) and I believe a big part of this is the momentum of Victory. I think you'll see tons of spillover into that area. Having a prosperous and thriving neighbor 2 blocks away is WAY more beneficial than having one 15 or 20 miles away. HUGE.

As RedScare said above, without Victory, it is very doubtful that H&B would have moved to Plano or Frisco. They would have stayed in or near downtown.

I think you're absolutely positively wrong on this. There are tons of other options. I'm frankly surprised they're not going into Addison. If I were choosing a location the nearby rail of their current location would have made the decision for me but this is Texas and it is very car-oriented so it wasn't even close to a lock for that area.

It's a rather sad statement of the condition of downtown Dallas that the choice as you put it seems to be whether to move to Uptown or Frisco/Plano (with a move out of downtown seeminly presumed). Is downtown Dallas really that bad?

It's not that Downtown Dallas is that bad, it's that there are HUGE pulls from major economic centers to the north. When the largest airport in the world was built where it was, it effectively tugged the whole region north (which was already happening but it drastically amplified it). Dallas and Fort Worth have suffered a lot and a lot of northern suburbs have thrived. There are no telecom corridors to the south, no Headquarters Drive, no Addison, no Las Colinas, no Southlake, no Alliance (yet, and the reason I think that project is way more crucial than Red gives it credit for), no UNT, etc... so businesses have no reason to be in the CBD (or very little) because they can survive (and thrive) on the huge and talented workforce to the north. Houston has nothing like this.

Jason

Starting from what point in Victory? And ending at what point in the West End? Hooters?

Hooters is in Victory AFAIK. It's been there since there was nothing there but a field if I am remembering right. I was speaking of the same starting point as above, the non-existent 1 Victory Park. I'll just walk it and see rather than rely on my memory of the time which would be affected by my mood that day. By the way 19514, a couple years ago I was doing 5 minute miles, not simply 5 minutes .4 miles, and was being passed up by people in the 35-40 class merely in Dallas so I don't think I'll be in the Olympics anytime soon.

Jason

And you're telling me that people will walk a MILE to get lunch? It appears that it will be 1/4 mile walk just to get to the other side of the freeway from One Victory Park.

Last time I walked that route, which was for lunch at On The Border, that walk felt more like 200 yards. It seemed like I got the restaurant in about 5 minutes.

Jason

When the DFW area sprawls about almost 2xs as much as Houston. and now trying to gobble up Sherman.Denson area.

DFW metro is smaller (sprawl/area-wise)than the Houston metro. Also, I don't think there is any effort to gobble up Sherman/"Denson" but there is the opposite going on, with Sherman doing the pulling in an organized (city councils etc..) effort.

Jason

Oh so now I see your actual point, you think we went to war for the oil. Maybe you should elaborate on what makes you think we did and show something that supports that other than opinion. Because that to me is no argument, because there is nothing to substantiate that claim.

WHAT???!!! I *NEVER* said that. All I said is if we did NOT go to war, today in 2006 we'd still have oil.

In fact, if you want my personal opinion, which doesn't have much to do with my issue with the original post, I don't see Iraq as driven much by oil. It's possible it is, but I don't see a strong connection.

Jason

DFW has no argument.

If by your post you're saying I have NEVER argued that Iraq was driven by oil, you'd be correct.

Well try this analogy on,

People walking down the street protesting killing animals for their fur, while wearing a Mink Coat!

Get the picture yet!

The bigger issue is doing this during the celebration of the very people that died for their right to do so.

I agree with you about your last point, that they chose a disrespectful and perhaps selfish (another debate altogether) time to protest.

However, your analogy is wrong. It's like protesting against killing animals for their fur IF there were a way to get the fur without killing them, perhaps in a less cost effective way. This is because there WAS a way to not lose the soldiers blood and still have oil, and that is to not have gone to war in the first place.

Jason

They were the ones with the signs, so like me, they feel the war is about oil..so why continue to contibute to the problem as they see it..problem being oil consumption and our need to control supplies..maybe I dont make sense in text, but those idiots in the parade were asses, but it is their right.

Well I made my point above but I agree with you that those people should have given the vets their day in peace.

Jason

So at the veterans parade, there were people with signs that said no more blood for oil...ok cool, got that, but these same people were driving cars, and wearing tennis shoes with rubber soles? Why do they keep contributing to the demand for oil? I am sure they use plastic as well as complain about the cost of fuel when it rises..I agree that may be the real reason we are over there, but also see the big picture that we rely on oil, and not willing to give up my lifestyle, so see the reason we are over there...Please dont waste bandwith with stupid comments, just explain what these peoples complaint is, and why they still use oil products?

You are insinuating that somehow them consuming oil and oil products conficts with them thinking we shouldn't trade blood for oil (their words not mine). This doesn't make any sense to me. Put yourself in their shoes. Do you not think it is a possiblility that if we hadn't gone to war he could continue to use his oil products??? Perhaps that's the chain of events he would have preferred. What is so hard to understand about that?

I'm sure there could be a rational complaint about these people but you haven't verbalized it yet.

Jason

looks though like the station is only connected to the tod and not the surrounding area. I know most people around there arent going to use the way it looks but there couldve been at least at small parking lot I guess or even a way someone on a bike wouldnt have to go off pavement to get there.

But yeah, nobody outside the development will use it so its not important

Myself and others I've talked to who are currently going to the Park Lane station quite a distance away will use this, and we're not in the development. It will be a nice stroll down there. A lot is going on right now to make that a nicer walk as well.

Jason

Dallasboi... ?? I know you're there... ;-) Any source for your numbers?

The class A space always seems to be in the 15-22% range so perhaps that's what he was talking about. I don't know myself, I'm not a vacancy expert.

Jason

Dallas and her existing and planned rail lines are impressive. I just don't understand how Dallas got funding though. How did you guys? Pass some help down here. 45 miles of light rail with 60,000 daily riders and Dallas is getting more funding. Houston 7.5 miles of light rail and 30,000+ riders and our leaders are still running around in circles about where and how rail should be placed.

Houston got more than its fair share of highway money for many years and Dallas likely got more than its share of rail money for several years... I imagine that's how it happened. So, Dallas has a lacking HOV system and Houston has a lacking rail system. In the next 5 years the Dallas HOV system will have significant upgrades and I believe the Houston rail or bart system will have similar upgrades.

Jason

I'm from Dallas and in my experience Houston is the second fastest city I've ever driven in behind LA. I notice Dallas drivers are considerably faster than Fort Worth... and Houston is almost that much faster than Dallas. I *NEVER* get pushed down the road in the left lane in Dallas but occasionally it happens in Houston (while I'm passing people myself) and it catches me totally off guard. I mostly drive in Houston on the weekends though.

Jason