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The Pragmatist

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Posts posted by The Pragmatist

  1. With so many of you on the "Progressive" side of the spectrum, I suppose my opinions on LBJ, the collective interpretation of LBJ's legacy, and the sentiment expressed by intencity77 would be much-maligned here. That said, while I'm certainly no fan of Johnson, I don't see how a privately-funded statue, particularly of a president, is something out of the ordinary.

  2. 2 hours ago, Triton said:

     

    You actually surprised me. Usually you're the one that posts the facts or at least reasonable statements here on this forum. It has to be fair that mass transit has at least helped alleviate congestion by reducing the amount of extra cars being on the highways, right? Travelling around the country and taking mass transit where I go, I just can't imagine how much more hectic the Bay Area would be without their subway system, the DC metro without MetroRail or even the extra taxis there would be going from Denver International to downtown Denver. In each case when we are going to each respective city during the morning commute, I've seen hundreds of workers hoping aboard to go to work downtown. I mean, say the year is 2050... is the alternative to have 30 lane highways inside of 610 that carry people, out to say the next Katyville... somewhere out in Columbus, Texas? Seriously, who knows how sprawling the city will be in 2050... can mass transit seriously not be a factor in this city when we see how to actually execute it well in so many different cities just within our own nation?

     

    I don't necessarily think that's true. I think there's a maximum level of traffic and commute time that the average commuter is willing to tolerate. The congestion will generally reach that point, and there will be a break-even point where any inflows of traffic would be balanced by diminutions due to avoidance of the congestion. I think that, once roadways reach capacity, the inbound destinations would have lessened growth without added capacity, with outlying areas tending to take that growth. Mass transit just allows for added capacity to move people into the central destination. As opposed to, let's say 700,000 people going into Manhattan on a given work day with only the option of automobiles, we get 1.5 million (just making up numbers here merely for illustrative purposes) people going into Manhattan. The average commute gets to that upper bound and then the inbound commuting population levels off. The commute time issue applies to mass transit as well. The average person isn't going to wait for an hour in line to get onto overcrowded trains. They'll just find something closer to where they live or relocate to somewhere where their desired commute can be achieved. If you don't provide the additional options for inbound commuting, suburban job growth will occur to respond to the demand for lower commute times. 

     

    Shortened version: I think the line that mass transit alleviates congestion isn't actually true. Mass transit just allows for added capacity to permit additional growth of certain areas.

    • Like 1
  3. 1 hour ago, H-Town Man said:

     

    I looked it up, gasoline is about 46% of U.S. petroleum demand, although production is a little different than demand, since we are still a net importer. Still, assuming that it's about half of production, I would imagine gas is a somewhat lower portion of revenue, since the remainder of petroleum goes to lubricating oils and other chemicals which are more expensive than gasoline. Then again, oil prices are all determined based on margins (our huge recession is the result of only a slight oversupply percentage-wise), so a loss of even 10% of demand would render oil almost worthless for many years.

     

    Oil vs. natural gas is harder to compare since they are measured in different units, and it's liquid vs. gas. Your estimate of 1/4 vs. 1/2 suggests that oil and natural gas productions are relatively comparable. In terms of volume, natural gas is higher by several orders of magnitude. But in terms of revenue, at current prices, the U.S. produces about $450 million in oil a year and about $80 million in natural gas a year (assuming I did all the conversions correctly). Of course, the oil and gas industry makes a lot of its money on refining, transport, and overseas exploration and production, so these figures are a very rough guide.

     

    At current price points, it's more like $150 billion of oil per year and $77 billion of natural gas from US production. Granted, that was me doing quick calculations from EIA figures, so I could be wrong.

  4. 2 hours ago, mfastx said:

     

    Chicago's urban area might not be growing as fast as Houston's, but it is not losing population.  It was at 8.5 mil in 2010 and is at about 9.2 mil in 2017.  Houston's is about 5 mil.  Official city limit populations are arbitrary and therefore meaningless if that's what you're going by.  

     

    I'm not here to argue about the transit systems. I just wanted to correct your assertion that Chicagoland isn't seeing a population decline.

     

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-chicago-census-population-loss-met-20170322-story.html

     

    Quote

    The Chicago metropolitan area as a whole lost 19,570 residents in 2016, registering the greatest loss of any metropolitan area in the country. It's the area's second consecutive year of population loss: In 2015, the region saw its first decline since at least 1990, losing 11,324 people.

    By most estimates, the Chicago area's population will continue to decline in the coming years. Over the past year, the Tribune surveyed dozens of former residents who've packed up in recent years and they cited a variety of reasons: high taxes, the state budget stalemate, crime, the unemployment rate and weather. Census data released Thursday suggests the root of the problem is in the city of Chicago and Cook County: The county in 2016 had the largest loss of any county nationwide, losing 21,324 residents.

    Experts say the pattern goes beyond just the Chicago region. For the third consecutive year, Illinois lost more residents than any other state in 2016, losing 37,508 people, according to U.S. census data released in December.

     

  5. 17 minutes ago, Montrose1100 said:

     

    It makes absolute sense to have these type of eateries in the convention area. Tourist hot spots cater to the stereotypical tourist. Why pay twice as much for an Olive Garden meal in Times Square or waste your time in a Ripley's? I cannot answer that, but people like it, and good for them. If there's going to be a place for that, might as well be Downtown, and might as well be by the GRB.

     

    If someone wants "better" options or where us locals will go, they will turn to the internet and find it. Unless they know someone whom lives here.

     

    But for the love of all that is holy stop chanting for an Observation Tower.

    What about a restaurant-filled observation tower shaped like the Oilers logo with a driving range all on top of the convention center? (Oh...and the observation tower has a skywalk from a new Ritz-Carlton on the site of a newly-razed Embassy Suites)

    • Like 9
  6. I met a mechanical engineer while shopping at Dillard's a few weeks ago. According to him, he was recently laid off by HP. He seemed a bit despondent about the fact that he had to resort to working retail sales in the men's department, but he had to obtain an instant source of income due to the fact that his daughter was about to head to medical school and his son was an engineering undergrad at Texas Tech. He said he was hoping to get positive news back from Schlumberger regarding employment. Technically he was employed, but it was a definite case of underemployment. You'd certainly need context for determining each case though.

  7. There are two ways to reduce congestion in the HOV/HOT lanes: 1) raise HOT prices and 2) increase the passenger count required for HOV access. I don't see how you don't understand the rationale behind this, Vinny. The 290 HOV lanes are open from 5AM - 11AM inbound and 2PM - 8PM outbound. The only 3+ passenger time is 6:30AM to 8:00AM. The reason for this increase is that there were too many vehicles in the lane. It was underutilized as an HOV-exclusive lane, and it is over-utilized following a peak hour, HOV/low-cost HOT setup. So from 6:30 to 8:00 it is HOV only (3+)/no HOT, and just prior to that, it is $7 for the HOT lane with a $5 rate just after that window. However, HOV (2+) usage is still permitted at other times. These are lane-management methods, Vinny. And the 6:30-8:00 window is given to preserve timeliness of service for the bus service that the lanes were designed for.

    • Like 1
  8. 16 minutes ago, IronTiger said:

    Oh yeah, I remember that. IIRC it was Thanksgiving (or Thanksgiving Eve) November 2012. I was at my uncle's house in Waco for Thanksgiving, and after reading about it we all kind of nodded and agreed that it was a good thing there that my uncle didn't live in Baton Rouge anymore, where we would've had to take I-10.

     

    Knowing what a simple fender bender can do to traffic, I can only imagine the nightmare of traffic that it caused. Hey, but being in traffic is better than being involved in the pile up itself, I guess. :rolleyes:

  9. 48 minutes ago, Triton said:

    Looks like my department is going to be going there tomorrow during lunch. Is it clearly marked which floors are the sky lobby? Or is there a certain level I need to press?

    At Chase, floor 60. Williams Tower used to be 51. At Wells Fargo, it was 57/58. I think all of them are transfer points between upper and lower floors, so it is pretty obvious which floor you're looking for.

    • Like 1
  10. Heh. Maybe they should just use the Hermann Park golf course for an amusement park. It's about 125 acres in a centralized location with great access to transit. ;) Slightly more on topic, the good news for redevelopment of this lot is that Clinton Drive may be repaved to where it doesn't feel like a 4x4 Wrangler is a necessity.

    • Like 3
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