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lockmat

Future of the Suburbs

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Lockmat saying "I never see people in their front yards, not anywhere" is not a reasonable statement. That would imply you've NEVER seen anyone cut their yard, do landscaping work in their yards, see children play in their yards? It is just not believable.

Sounds like what you believe and the truth are two different things.

C'mon man. It's called hyperbole.

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C'mon man. It's called hyperbole.

Well the resulting effect sure didn't add anything to the post you started except to give you less credibility. ;)

Edited by musicman

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Well, having stayed there for a week, the only landscaping I saw involved pulling out weeds from a yard of rock that whom the person I was staying with had. Looking around (it was june), basically the same thing was being done. Just getting weeds from native flower/cacti beds.

I was told about the occasional scorpion or snake, and I believe that because when I was staying briefly at a friend's in Mineral Wells, I was rudely stopped in my tracks by a rattle snake while walking to the bathroom late one night.

Nothing wakes you up from a drowsy walk to the potty like hearing a rattle and your mind goes "uh, that's not normal."

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Suburbs outside of the beltway are iffy to me as they are cookie cutter homes being stamped into the dirt with limited elevations and/or styles. I believe these areas will become the new high crime ghetto areas due to the cheap construction and closeness of the homes to each other.

My .02c,

Scharpe St Guy

This is a bit of a wide statement, sure there are areas like this, but this is not the enviroment where I chose to live and I live outside Highway 6. In fact this seems to describe a lot of the area between the beltway and the loop. As I saw the market when I have shopped neighborhoods in the past, if you were spending anything less than say 145,000 in the current market in the "burbs" outside the beltway for new construction, your neighborhood may be in danger of the kind of decline you were talking about. It's hard to quantify why, but this was my opinion. Of course there are exceptions but this is what I found looking for the standard of living I expected.

Edited by westguy76

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From what I have seen, we may be facing an interesting twist on the "white flight" in Houston.

I believe in about 10-15 years, Houston will be urbanized, but those with a higher income bracket that prefer the comforts and activities offered in a city.

The 'burbs (Sugar land, Pear land, Clear lake) will also be occupied by those with a higher income.

The areas in between (like say 610 and BW8) would be those of a more more modest income or "support" class of people. by "support" I mean those in the service industry or those that help maintain an infrastructure economy for those who are a bit more affluent.

the only thing I can't quite figure out is what's going to happen along the east end near the ship channel and refineries. I'm not sure if it's going to stay the way it currently is or not. That particular part of the city is still going strong and the odds of people putting homes in the area remain slim, much less those with in the upper income bracket.

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I was told about the occasional scorpion or snake, and I believe that because when I was staying briefly at a friend's in Mineral Wells, I was rudely stopped in my tracks by a rattle snake while walking to the bathroom late one night.

Nothing wakes you up from a drowsy walk to the potty like hearing a rattle and your mind goes "uh, that's not normal."

Yeah, that happens from time to time, even here in southeast Texas.

You're lucky you didn't get bit. I was in Phoenix for several days a couple years back and watched their local news. Some woman got bit by a rattler that was beside her washing machine. I've also heard of people who have gotten bit an the ass from a snake in the toilet bowl.

But then, I've always found news from the desert cities to be odd. In south central New Mexico, one time, I was watching the local news, which did a story on condom durability and found that the ones in truck stops were the best. And after that, they had a guy on who was complaining about a crime and pronounced Albuquerque like All-boo-car-key...not really fast, but with each sylable pronounced very slowly and deliberately. Weird.

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From what I have seen, we may be facing an interesting twist on the "white flight" in Houston.

I believe in about 10-15 years, Houston will be urbanized, but those with a higher income bracket that prefer the comforts and activities offered in a city.

The 'burbs (Sugar land, Pear land, Clear lake) will also be occupied by those with a higher income.

The areas in between (like say 610 and BW8) would be those of a more more modest income or "support" class of people. by "support" I mean those in the service industry or those that help maintain an infrastructure economy for those who are a bit more affluent.

the only thing I can't quite figure out is what's going to happen along the east end near the ship channel and refineries. I'm not sure if it's going to stay the way it currently is or not. That particular part of the city is still going strong and the odds of people putting homes in the area remain slim, much less those with in the upper income bracket.

I think that a lot of the areas just inside the beltway, but near the 610 Loop will do pretty well. Even a bit further into the Inner Belt area, there will be places that get better. I'd be more concerned about the stuff between the Belt and 1960. Of course, there are always plenty of exceptions. Houston isn't defined radially, after all, even if our transportation systems are.

I wouldn't count on a whole lot of high-income development around the ship channel, but it does happen from time to time. Parts of Pasadena aren't bad at all, and there is construction in Deer Park and western La Porte. The closer to Galveston Bay, the higher the value of the new construction. I think that as Seabrook gets built out, and given that Clear Lake already is, old La Porte is going to really get going. Give it ten years and watch.

HGAC goes so far as to forecast significant residential growth inside of 225 and I-10 around the ship channel. That's where I draw the line. I declare BS.

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Yeah, I was a complete moron when it came to handling the snake, I just got a broom and shoo'ed it out the door with the owners watching!

yeah, the stories from there are wierd and they have a whole different set of problems to worry about as far as lawn care and household pests.

Then again, people new to the area freak out pretty badly to the roaches and mosquitos here.

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What's complicated? Given options, people use their yards, thus revealing their preference. So why give them options that they aren't going to use if you can eliminate the options, cut costs, and undercut the competition by not selling people things that they don't need?

Even if a developer controls all of the corners or frontage of an area (which is hard enough to achieve), he still must compete with every other developer in his market area that controls every other corner and every bit of frontage. He cannot force office tenants to move into his building that has less accessibility and visibility than the one across the highway that does. He still faces a highly competitive market, and for his new urban scheme to work, he'll need land use controls or a big BIG chunk of land supported by a growing metro area as well as pockets that are deep enough to be able to wait out the long drawn-out buildout process.

Yes, this goes without saying. But the most visible and accessible places are the places where it "typically goes" (i.e. it can't be moved anywhere else without adversely affecting those characteristics). That's why it "typically goes" there.

And the new breed of developers do have deep pockets, they do have the land to control this and all they need are the proper planning tools. Also, you can not force tenants, but you can entice them, and as much as "visibility" appears important to most tenants, the error of there thinking is that visibility is everything. There is salesmanship and logic involved, not just the "typical" that is the old way of thinking and those that continue to think "typically" will not survive or be as successful as those that think outside the box.

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And the new breed of developers do have deep pockets...

And what do you base this conclusion upon? Show me data.

...they do have the land to control this...

Who is they? Where is this land?

...all they need are the proper planning tools.

Yep, that's why they hire professional architects, land planners, and consultants.

Also, you can not force tenants, but you can entice them...

This much is true...you can always grant concessions on the lease or engage in active marketing approaches. But that gets expensive and/or risky very quickly. How do you reconcile this?

...as much as "visibility" appears important to most tenants, the error of there thinking is that visibility is everything.

Visibility and access are what get the prospective tenants to your doorstep so that you have the ability to make your case. Visibility is nothing more than a passive form of advertising. Case in point: there are several apartment complexes that have been built in prominent positions adjacent to large noisy freeways even though people have to live and sleep there. My initial reaction was "well that's stupid," but I was wrong. In fact, they lease up pretty quickly and get respectable rents. The same applies to commercial properties, except that visibility and access are even more critical with office, retail, and hotels.

I've granted you that there is a niche market for this kind of thing, but it is really very difficult to tap into. Implementation on a meaningful scale has a number of prerequisites that aren't common in the Houston market, and I've already explained exactly what they are.

There is salesmanship and logic involved, not just the "typical" that is the old way of thinking and those that continue to think "typically" will not survive or be as successful as those that think outside the box.

Salesmanship is good, but that's true regardless of the design of the product. It can be engaged in by anybody willing to spend the time and money on a good broker (or to do it themselves, if able).

As for logic...I challenge you to explain the logic of your position rather than just throwing the word out there as though it is self-evident. Of course, that challenge is extended to the rest of your conclusions as well. I'll buy what you're selling, but only if you can explain the advantages.

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are you considering the burbs, for example west houston, everything outside of hwy 6? do you believe that the owners in memorial , tanglewood, briar grove park, or the energy corridor would allow such a thing to happen? if this happens or before this happens, I believe that one developer will redevelop the entire area (say energy corridor to beltway 8) into a woodlands esque type of location or even a larger royal oaks type. nothing could ever happen to these areas that would harm them.

I believe commuter and light rail will link the areas together but this is houston not new york. people enjoy neighbors, back yards, and saftey not tenants, pocket parks, and the availability for their child to be run over in midtown. houston is far too expansive to undergo a complete 180 to a completely urbanized infill.

I do see though those in far katy, sugarland, and the like to move closer down their respective corridors. but are there any good developments on 59 or 90 between the beltway and 610 for sweetwater residents to reside? katy has memorial and likely the redeveloped plans for the area.

but would 700 mil from BP and millions from conoco, exxon, citgo, and others be wasted in the corridor if everyone was going to move inside the loop in 10 years?

I think I am biased towards the corridor since I live there and dont want to see anything happen to it. but still...

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are you considering the burbs, for example west houston, everything outside of hwy 6? do you believe that the owners in memorial , tanglewood, briar grove park, or the energy corridor would allow such a thing to happen? if this happens or before this happens, I believe that one developer will redevelop the entire area (say energy corridor to beltway 8) into a woodlands esque type of location or even a larger royal oaks type. nothing could ever happen to these areas that would harm them.

I believe commuter and light rail will link the areas together but this is houston not new york. people enjoy neighbors, back yards, and saftey not tenants, pocket parks, and the availability for their child to be run over in midtown. houston is far too expansive to undergo a complete 180 to a completely urbanized infill.

I do see though those in far katy, sugarland, and the like to move closer down their respective corridors. but are there any good developments on 59 or 90 between the beltway and 610 for sweetwater residents to reside? katy has memorial and likely the redeveloped plans for the area.

but would 700 mil from BP and millions from conoco, exxon, citgo, and others be wasted in the corridor if everyone was going to move inside the loop in 10 years?

I think I am biased towards the corridor since I live there and dont want to see anything happen to it. but still...

Like I said, there are plenty of exceptions to what I've predicted. That whole slice of West Houston between I-10 and the Buffalo Bayou is among them. If the employment center keeps growing, there'll always be enough demand to keep things in check. Likewise, much of that area has real staying power in ways that areas to the north and south of there do not. Those areas that don't have staying power are pretty much screwed.

Places like The Woodlands and Royal Oaks required a single all-powerful owner. Management districts, TIRZs, and the like would be a start, but they are political entities, susceptible to legal restrictions, backhanded corruption, and frequent shortsightedness. Few are well-run IMO.

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The Cinco Ranch area is the kind of development you guys seem to be talking about. It more closely resembles the Woodlands IMO than any other area I can think of.

"Located 32 miles from downtown Houston, Cinco Ranch is the brightest star in West Houston,a leader in the Houston region in quality growth.

At Cinco Ranch, Newland Communities is constantly striving to offer home buyers the broadest array of new homes by leading builders, at prices from the $170,000s to over $1 million. Located in Katy Texas, home buyers will find Cinco Ranch full of traditional single-family homes in various price ranges, along with exclusive custom and estate homes, and low-maintenance lifestyle homes. We even have a unique lifestyle neighborhood for homebuyers 55 and over.

Our 7,400-acre master plan devotes hundreds of acres to recreation. Part of the acclaimed Katy Independent School District, Cinco Ranch is already home to eleven Katy ISD schools. But most of all, we think it's our community spirit. It is the Cinco Ranch Advantage.", from www.cincoranch.com.

I think this area including Neighborhoods like Seven Meadows, Grand Lakes, and all the Kelliwood development, will continue to support the energy corridor and the new hospitals.

I live in Cinco Ranch and commute to the westchase area a 20 minute drive. This is a pretty big business district too that is close to where I live. And can support a lot of homes. It always boggles me that people seem to infer that every one who lives in the "burbs" commutes 30 miles on the freeways into downtown or somewhere else. I would never choose to do this.

Edited by westguy76

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as for royal oaks I believe the area wont be what it is today in the near future. the neighborhood is surrounded by class b and c apartments. I dont know the projections for the crime rate since royal oaks was under minimal construction in 2000 but the land surrounding has never faired to well in that department.

I believe royal oaks will peak in the coming years and then continue to decline in price in value. it will never hit a horrible, back to the future 2 type of existence but it will likely be that residents who purchased in in 99 and 2000 will have to shell out some money to the bank. it will likely go from lower high class to upper middle class or between middle and upper middle. that is just my guess.

how many residents of the woodlands commute to inner houston for work (ie uptown or downtown)? I still see the growing trend inside the loop for my generation and for the older crowd. for the others, I likely foresee the parents either shelling out money for private and living inside or going for public and living outside.

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Fun to read back through a 13 year old thread like this and see what has aged well and what hasn't. Moving to the briar grove neighborhood so I searched HAIF for "briar grove" and this is one of the threads that popped up. Looks like the burbs have done just fine and then some. 

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58 minutes ago, WestUdweller said:

Fun to read back through a 13 year old thread like this and see what has aged well and what hasn't. Moving to the briar grove neighborhood so I searched HAIF for "briar grove" and this is one of the threads that popped up. Looks like the burbs have done just fine and then some. 

 

If you really want a fun read, go find the heights walmart thead and the bridge of death.

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On 1/22/2020 at 6:09 PM, august948 said:

 

If you really want a fun read, go find the heights walmart thead and the bridge of death.

lol.

 

the doom and gloom in that thread, even at the time was comical, now it's downright hilarious. 

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On 1/22/2020 at 6:09 PM, august948 said:

 

If you really want a fun read, go find the heights walmart thead and the bridge of death.

 

2 hours ago, samagon said:

lol.

 

the doom and gloom in that thread, even at the time was comical, now it's downright hilarious. 

 

Well, traffic on Yale does now bite... :ph34r:

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On 1/22/2020 at 6:09 PM, august948 said:

 

If you really want a fun read, go find the heights walmart thead and the bridge of death.

 

Link?

 

Would like to read myself.

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Just now, august948 said:

 

Here ya go....68 pages of walmart hate and heights privilege...plus the bridge of death 

 

http://www.houstonarchitecture.com/haif/topic/23505-wal-mart-to-invade-the-heights

 

"Invade" oh lord. I'll read this over the weekend.

 

hmm. I can now see why H-Town Man once asked if I was this "TheNiche". We really do have a very similar approach and style. Interesting.

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10 minutes ago, Luminare said:

 

"Invade" oh lord. I'll read this over the weekend.

 

hmm. I can now see why H-Town Man once asked if I was this "TheNiche". We really do have a very similar approach and style. Interesting.

 

There are probably some tangential threads out there as well if you really need to drop into an internet black hole for a while....

 

Last I remember hearing, TheNiche had moved to Asia.  Perhaps a more reliable memory was that he was in commercial real estate/development of some sort when he was living here in Houston.

 

As it happens I was in desperate need of tacos earlier today and stopped by the Taco Cabana in front of the Heights Walmart.  That whole area is doing gangbusters judging from the traffic.

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Sort of unrelated, but Taco Cabana's quality has dropped off. Last time I went there I ordered fajita tacos. I got a plate with two tortillas with a wimpy portion of super salty rubber-like cubed beef and a gloop of canned refried beans and some rice for $10. I went up to the counter to ask where my guac and lettuce was and why there weren't tomatoes in the rice. That's what I thought they served  . They told me it didn't come like that. What a disappointment. I noticed that several locations have gone out of business in the last few months. If I worked there I wouldn't be able keep doing my job, too sad and cringey. That chain will be gone in 2 years, I'm calling it now.

Edited by zaphod
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18 hours ago, zaphod said:

Sort of unrelated, but Taco Cabana's quality has dropped off. Last time I went there I ordered fajita tacos. I got a plate with two tortillas with a wimpy portion of super salty rubber-like cubed beef and a gloop of canned refried beans and some rice for $10. I went up to the counter to ask where my guac and lettuce was and why there weren't tomatoes in the rice. That's what I thought they served  . They told me it didn't come like that. What a disappointment. I noticed that several locations have gone out of business in the last few months. If I worked there I wouldn't be able keep doing my job, too sad and cringey. That chain will be gone in 2 years, I'm calling it now.

 

Houston has so many choices for tacos at any budget why bother with Taco Cabana. 

Edited by BeerNut
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15 hours ago, BeerNut said:

 

Houston has so many choices for tacos at any budget why bother with Taco Cabana. 

 

Mostly because they know how to make some d@mn good tortillas.  When we make fajitas at home we go there and buy a couple dozen.  I hope the never go out of business for that reason alone.  What they put on the tortillas is not too bad but there are some better toppings out there.  Happy hour alcohol prices aren't too bad either.

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On 2/22/2020 at 8:29 PM, zaphod said:

Sort of unrelated, but Taco Cabana's quality has dropped off. Last time I went there I ordered fajita tacos. I got a plate with two tortillas with a wimpy portion of super salty rubber-like cubed beef and a gloop of canned refried beans and some rice for $10. I went up to the counter to ask where my guac and lettuce was and why there weren't tomatoes in the rice. That's what I thought they served  . They told me it didn't come like that. What a disappointment. I noticed that several locations have gone out of business in the last few months. If I worked there I wouldn't be able keep doing my job, too sad and cringey. That chain will be gone in 2 years, I'm calling it now.

 

Last time we went to Taco Cabana, we ordered one item each for the four of us (so not a large catering order) and then proceeded to wait 90 minutes for them to make 3 tacos and a quesadilla.  It's how I discovered their system actually kicks off tickets after 90 minutes.  Almost everyone in the restaurant was waiting for an order, not eating

 

Needless to say, we haven't been back in 6 months

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On 2/24/2020 at 12:15 AM, august948 said:

 

Mostly because they know how to make some d@mn good tortillas.  When we make fajitas at home we go there and buy a couple dozen.  I hope the never go out of business for that reason alone.  What they put on the tortillas is not too bad but there are some better toppings out there.  Happy hour alcohol prices aren't too bad either.

 

yup, they have good tortillas, but I'd never consider anything else they make good.

 

I wonder if they went away would two pesos be able to come back? 

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