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Have we been preparing since last Summer?


DJ V Lawrence

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http://www.houstonchronicle.com/disp/story...an/3735583.html

We all know what the federal, state and local governments, FEMA, and all these volunteers have been doing AFTER Katrina hit. Everyone's getting their lives together, and the levees are being updated now that Katrina passed. It proved how important it is for each individual and our officials to have plans already set in place, and to invest tax payer dollars on preparedness.

I brought this forum up now because I remember right here on HAIF right prior to Rita coming ashore, some of us were worried that the storm was going to be another Cat 5, and there were crazy predictions as to how high the storm surge was going to be. Galveston had a possibility of being completely submerged. We also have to remember that with T.S. Allison, it gave Houston over $1 Billion dollars worth of damage.

Houston itself has improved it's flood control, but I heard of most of that happening directly after Allison, and I haven't heard any sense of urgency recently from HAIF members or from Houston's media about needing to prepare for the next big storm since last year past. We can't let our guards down. Another Katrina will come, and it's only a matter of years...maybe even a few months.

I think we need to remind ourselves and our leaders that NOW is the time to be urgent about the next storm; not when the storm's only 3-4 days away. I'd like to know what Galveston in particular has done to try to deter immense damage from the perfect storm. Has there been ANY discussions about raising the island or building more Seawall, or is the plan to just let Galveston wash away. And if THAT'S the plan, why are we still hearing about new developments there like high-rises and Schlitterbaum?

And what has Houston City Council been doing since last Summer in terms of being more prepared than last Summer, because I haven't heard anything from where I am, and maybe since you all are in Houston, you know more than I do. Please respond. Thanks.

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Regarding Galveston, I do not believe there is anything they can do to protect themselves from a Cat 5 storm.

Raising the island just isnt realistic and wouldnt protect the island from a Cat 5 anyways. More seawall could be built, but again, it wouldnt do anything in the case of a Cat 5.

The same goes for Houston. Alison created havoc because it stalled overtop of us. I am not saying that couldnt happen again, but the point is, you cannot protect yourself from every possible scenario. Had Alison passed over us in a timely manner, no major damage would have occurred.

So I guess the answer to your question, is not much. I do know that TXDOT was tasked with having a plan for contra-flow lanes for I-10, 59, 45 and even 290. Where they are at on that plan I do not know. I also know that the mystery gas tankers will be available should we have to evacuate again.

All things considered, I think Houstonians did a great job of evacuating. Sure it was painfully slow. But 24 hours before the storm hit, the evacations were done. An impressive feat considering how many millions of people left.

I think thats where our concentration should lie... putting together a better evacuation plan. Trying to build a "wall" around the city is impossible and will never work.

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I believe the city has been working on evacuation plans, since that was the biggest issue here last time. We lost more citizens to traffic than the hurricane. That's sad. I don't know the details of the plans but improving the contra-flow switch speed is a priority.

Run from the water, hide from the wind. Also: Carpool.

Here's one chron article:

Houston Hurricane Prep

There was also too much focus from the media and politicians to ONLY take the freeways. I had a bad day in traffic (cell phone died, dog chewed through leash, rear-ended...). When you consider side streets, there are a million ways out of Houston. Case in Point: It took me 18 hours to get from Clear lake to the Woodlands via I45. I know a co-worker who left later in the day, took side streets and made it to Conroe in 6 hours. I listened to 740 all day long and no one mentioned that. Of course, it was a poor decision on my part to not get off the freeway. I should have known better. But the city created essentially tunnels without any entrances/exits which made it seem that it was the only way.

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And what has Houston City Council been doing since last Summer in terms of being more prepared than last Summer, because I haven't heard anything from where I am, and maybe since you all are in Houston, you know more than I do. Please respond. Thanks.

They've been giving out bonuses so their employees can better prepare!

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I believe the city has been working on evacuation plans, since that was the biggest issue here last time. We lost more citizens to traffic than the hurricane. That's sad. I don't know the details of the plans but improving the contra-flow switch speed is a priority.

Run from the water, hide from the wind. Also: Carpool.

Here's one chron article:

Houston Hurricane Prep

There was also too much focus from the media and politicians to ONLY take the freeways. I had a bad day in traffic (cell phone died, dog chewed through leash, rear-ended...). When you consider side streets, there are a million ways out of Houston. Case in Point: It took me 18 hours to get from Clear lake to the Woodlands via I45. I know a co-worker who left later in the day, took side streets and made it to Conroe in 6 hours. I listened to 740 all day long and no one mentioned that. Of course, it was a poor decision on my part to not get off the freeway. I should have known better. But the city created essentially tunnels without any entrances/exits which made it seem that it was the only way.

Four questions:

Has Houston's flooding decreased in the past few years, or is it just as consistant? (I'm thinking about when that one highway turned into a bayou about 10 years ago. It was on an April afternoon, too.)

Has the state of Texas actually talked specifics about being sure our oil supplies will be good along the evacuation routes other than "we will be more prepared next time", because I haven't heard what that plan is.

Why is Galveston such a development boom for a place so vunerable? Good insurance policies? And is most of Galveston's residences insured?

(Exibit A: http://www.houstonarchitecture.info/haif/i...wtopic=5518&hl= )

There was talk after Rita that one thing the State may need to do is add more lanes to some freeways (currently two lanes) going out of Harris County. Was that pursued, or are the routes already assured quick to leave when the next big one hits?

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Why is Galveston such a development boom for a place so vunerable? Good insurance policies? And is most of Galveston's residences insured?

(Exibit A: http://www.houstonarchitecture.info/haif/i...wtopic=5518&hl= )

There was talk after Rita that one thing the State may need to do is add more lanes to some freeways (currently two lanes) going out of Harris County. Was that pursued, or are the routes already assured quick to leave when the next big one hits?

My understanding from various people in the insurance business is that attempting to insure coastal properties at low elevations is essentially impossible, as high as the premiums are. If you're in an area covered by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), you're a little better off, but are still in a pretty precarious spot. I'm not sure if the NFIP applies to Galveston's west end, and when the big one (or even the moderate one) hits, it is going to be ugly.

As for the interstates as evacuation routes, bear in mind that they were originally built under the guise of civil defense so that people could evacuate cities prior to aircraft dropping nuclear bombs. But cities were less populous then, and the rationale is obsolete. The only reason freeways have gotten wider inside metropolitan areas is to accomodate commuters. These things are not evacuation-friendly anymore. It would be wonderful if we could expand I-45 and I-10 to three continuous lanes connecting the 'Asphalt Triangle' in Texas, if only for the benefit of travelers and freight trucks, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Also don't bet on carpooling. For a lot of people, vehicles represent a big chunk of their earnings. They aren't just going to be left at home if it can be helped...and its hard to blame people for that, either.

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Coastal property can be insured as long as the first occupied floor of the residence is above flood level. In Galveston, I believe that level is 16 or 17 feet above sea level. It also has to be built to high wind standards. Anything that doesn't meet these standards is nearly impossible to insure.

I agree that it is hard to blame those who want to protect their vehicles by driving them inland. It is also hard to listen to them complain about evacuation gridlock, when they, and others like them, caused it by doubling the number of vehicles on the road. Realistically, there is little that planners can do to prevent it. They can only incorporate the knowledge that residents will take both cars into their evauation planning.

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My understanding from various people in the insurance business is that attempting to insure coastal properties at low elevations is essentially impossible, as high as the premiums are. If you're in an area covered by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), you're a little better off, but are still in a pretty precarious spot. I'm not sure if the NFIP applies to Galveston's west end, and when the big one (or even the moderate one) hits, it is going to be ugly.

Shouldn't New Orleans be an example as to how much a hurricane can cost the public especially when the majority of residence there don't have the proper insurance? How would Galveston cost to rebuild if a Cat 4 or 5 hit? (And you KNOW we would expect ourselves to rebuild the island). And who would have to pay for it? Is there a plan in place for those payments, come to think of it? As much as Houstonians would want to help, we'd probably be spending another billion dollars and mad labor rebuild our homes, so we wouldn't be as available for immediate help like we were for N.O.

As for the interstates as evacuation routes, bear in mind that they were originally built under the guise of civil defense so that people could evacuate cities prior to aircraft dropping nuclear bombs. But cities were less populous then, and the rationale is obsolete. The only reason freeways have gotten wider inside metropolitan areas is to accomodate commuters. These things are not evacuation-friendly anymore. It would be wonderful if we could expand I-45 and I-10 to three continuous lanes connecting the 'Asphalt Triangle' in Texas, if only for the benefit of travelers and freight trucks, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Also don't bet on carpooling. For a lot of people, vehicles represent a big chunk of their earnings. They aren't just going to be left at home if it can be helped...and its hard to blame people for that, either.

I want to hear more talk about scario situations. For example, I wanna hear plans on how tow trucks will reach a gas-less car on the freeway when it stops traffic on an evacuation route.

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As much as Houstonians would want to help, we'd probably be spending another billion dollars and mad labor rebuild our homes, so we wouldn't be as available for immediate help like we were for N.O.

I want to hear more talk about scario situations. For example, I wanna hear plans on how tow trucks will reach a gas-less car on the freeway when it stops traffic on an evacuation route.

Here's my hypothetical scenario for a major (4/5) hurricane strike on the Houston area:

Galveston is in very bad shape. The west end is desolate, sliced into a series of islands seperated by channels that will heal only as the tides reshape the shoreline. FM 3005 has been reduced to a few asphalt boulders, but mostly pebbles. If there is anyone left on the West End, it will likely be a few days before help arrives. The East End is somewhat better off. Flood damage is bad on just about every first and second story of most every structure. The water managed to top the seawall, but only by a few feet. Still, every retail store has been flooded and there isn't anything left worth looting, so crime really doesn't become a problem. One big problem: several barges were lashed together and to a pier at a private terminal to try and ride out the storm. They broke loose and slammed into the causeway, causing a catastrophic collapse. The rail bridge has also been damaged. It can be repaired, but will take a few days before anyone is permitted to cross in vehicles. For now, those on the island are stranded there; the only good news is that Galvestonians understood the danger, and the vast majority got out before the storm.

Texas City did not fare so well. Several tank farms were severely damaged, releasing toxic chemicals into the flood waters. Oil is bad, but this stuff was worse. Despite having an excellent earthen levy system, the storm surge was high enough to enter the city from around the ends of the levies. People were less prone to evacuate, and the city and many of its residents are now bathed in a chemical soup. Galveston Bay's ecosystem will be damaged for years to come.

From Tiki Island along the coast to Morgan's Point, and then back into Deer Park, Friendswood, and even towards Alvin, homes have become caked with mud and snakes. Many roofs are gone. Some neighborhoods, such as San Leon as one notable example, don't even exist anymore. Except for many broken windows, the Inner Loop area and points north and west fared well. Downtown is off limits while glass shards are cleared from the streets. It will reopen within days, although power may be off for weeks.

On the whole, the Houston area takes it pretty well. We've got a lot of housing stock that had previously been unoccupied that fills up. The average household size increases by a quarter of a person overnight, as many relatives and friends from across town cluster together temporarily. Some people and companies relocate to Dallas or San Antonio, never to return, but most just relocate in the massive chunks of vacant office or flex/office warehouse space over the course of several months. For the white collar worker, life returns to normalcy within a couple months. Blue collar labor sees an economic boom. Housing repairs/reconstruction commences en masse, as Federal disaster relief and insurance flows into the Bayou City.

That is pretty much that. The Houston area will absorb most of its own losses, but will perservere and overcome the challenge. We'll probably also drain many nearby metropolitan areas of their illegal immigrants for the span of about a year, so their cost of living may rise a little, too.

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Good job on the scenario. Scary, but it makes sense. The storm that destroyed Galveston in 1900 made it to downtown Houston, but obviously there was a lot less to damage back then.

In fact, if I may twist your words a little, it MADE downtown Houston. One can easily argue that without the storm of 1900 (and assuming no other emminent hurricanes like the one in 1915), Galveston would have continued to develop as the financial and white-collar Central Business District for the region. Houston may have had its ship channel, but Fort Worth had its stockyards and it ultimately was second to Dallas. Galveston could have been the equivalent of downtown Dallas.

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Related article from the Chronicle, taking a climate change approach for Houston.

The tide also rises in Houston

Our area should lead in combating global warming

By AIMEE PRECOURT

THE levees failed. That wasn't supposed to happen. Hurricane Katrina's breaching of the structures didn't just bring a rush of water into the Big EasyNew Orleans, but also a flood of people to Houston. As if this wasn't enough to get our attention, Mother Nature considered sending us a storm of our own as Hurricane Rita followed a path headed straight for our coast. Its late shift east left us lucky, to say the least.

Is the fate of New Orleans some thing we may also have to face simply because of our coastal location and nature's tendency? Or can we do something else, beyond providing structural modifications, to combat storms and protect ourselves from possible damage?

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Related article from the Chronicle, taking a climate change approach for Houston.

Link to full article

Am I the only one that spotted convoluted logic in this article? I could break this thing down, but its so lengthy and touches on so many related (and unrelated) topics, it's just not worth my time...unless of course its not as transparent an article as I think...

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