Being skeptical on 3% drop in COH homicide rate

[Houston19514]

2 hours ago, Ross said:

The latest City budget has the number of patrol officers at around 3500. Some of those 5,229 officers are assigned to traffic, investigations, and other non-patrol functions. Basing the numbers on total employees is misleading, since some cities have their 911 operators in the police department, or have parking enforcement in the police department, etc.

I suspect the other cities’ police departments numbers also include non-patrol functions.  FWIW, no one suggested a comparison based on total employees.

[trymahjong]

Perhaps the time has come forHouston to do a huge hiring of officers actually assigned to patrol duty. A number of police Per citizen somewhere between LA numbers Chicago numbers. Houston could “ bite the bullet” and find the money.

 

[mattyt36]

14 minutes ago, trymahjong said:

Perhaps the time has come forHouston to do a huge hiring of officers actually assigned to patrol duty. A number of police Per citizen somewhere between LA numbers Chicago numbers. Houston could “ bite the bullet” and find the money.

 

Are LA and Chicago crime rates more to your liking than Houston's?

[Ross]

1 hour ago, trymahjong said:

Perhaps the time has come forHouston to do a huge hiring of officers actually assigned to patrol duty. A number of police Per citizen somewhere between LA numbers Chicago numbers. Houston could “ bite the bullet” and find the money.

 

There is no money to find unless the revenue cap on property taxes is lifted. The HPD budget is almost a billion dollars. The budget for police and fire combined is more than property tax collections. Here's the General Fund Summary for the new fiscal year that starts on July 1 https://www.houstontx.gov/budget/23budprop/II_GFS.pdf

[editor]

15 hours ago, Ross said:

 Basing the numbers on total employees is misleading, since some cities have their 911 operators in the police department, or have parking enforcement in the police department, etc.

The numbers were based on officers, not total employees.  You can see the breakdown for each city by following the FBI link I posted.

[editor]

1 hour ago, mattyt36 said:

Are LA and Chicago crime rates more to your liking than Houston's?

A quick look up on city-data shows the following crime rates:

• Houston: 522.8
• Los Angeles: 337.2
• Chicago: 433.2

So, yes, I suspect he does find LA and Chicago crime rates more to his liking.

Or were you trying to imply that there's less crime in Houston than Los Angeles and Chicago?

Sources:

• https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Houston-Texas.html
• https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Los-Angeles-California.html
• https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Chicago-Illinois.html

[mattyt36]

34 minutes ago, editor said:

A quick look up on city-data shows the following crime rates:

• Houston: 522.8
• Los Angeles: 337.2
• Chicago: 433.2

So, yes, I suspect he does find LA and Chicago crime rates more to his liking.

Or were you trying to imply that there's less crime in Houston than Los Angeles and Chicago?

Sources:

• https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Houston-Texas.html
• https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Los-Angeles-California.html
• https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Chicago-Illinois.html

Well a fine starting point for a conversation (and we’re 20+ posts in) would be what crimes are we exactly focusing on solving and where exactly, and what the exact “theory of the case” is for higher numbers of patrol officers in reducing these crimes (whatever and wherever they are). It seems that this whole thread started based on murder statistics. 
 

Not to mention your statistics beg an explanation there. I assume those are rates per some amount of population. But what exactly is in the numerator? Is it 523 “crimes” per 100K people? What kind of crimes?

It’s also always a good idea not to presume what people are thinking in an effort to win any sort of “gotcha” points and let him answer that very direct question for himself, dontcha think?

 

Edited June 15, 2022 by mattyt36

[trymahjong]

2 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

2 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

Are LA and Chicago crime rates more to your liking than Houston's?

 

 

 

more to my liking?
Now, I’m puzzled. I may have been unclear before. HPD has stood on a platform of “smallest police force of largest city”

no matter what happens in reporting crime to the community meetings I attend for past 18 years- this is what HPD falls back on. I sit there and soak up all the HPD speak, month after month. It’s Houston’s crime rate that I’m interested in- that I copy down and send to my neighbors, that I post alerts about—— would a bigger police force help lower Houston crime? HPD has been lecturing me - that indeed it WOULD.

So— I decided to take a stand  in this thread and say— okay HPD— hire more beat type cops,, lots of them, maybe more than LA but less than Chicago. Let’s see what happens.

 

1 hour ago, Ross said:

There is no money to find unless the revenue cap on property taxes is lifted. The HPD budget is almost a billion dollars. The budget for police and fire combined is more than property tax collections. Here's the General Fund Summary for the new fiscal year that starts on July 1 https://www.houstontx.gov/budget/23budprop

 

IMO—- monies seem to be found - if Mayor Turner desires it.

[mattyt36]

4 hours ago, trymahjong said:

Now, I’m puzzled. I may have been unclear before. HPD has stood on a platform of “smallest police force of largest city”

Yet, statistics have been shared to show that may not be the case.

4 hours ago, trymahjong said:

no matter what happens in reporting crime to the community meetings I attend for past 18 years- this is what HPD falls back on. I sit there and soak up all the HPD speak, month after month.

Why not marinate on that for a moment?  

4 hours ago, trymahjong said:

So— I decided to take a stand  in this thread and say— okay HPD— hire more beat type cops,, lots of them, maybe more than LA but less than Chicago. Let’s see what happens.

Sounds like a great way to make policy--solely based on the comments of an interest group (which they are) and gut reactions.  I mean, I still have no idea what crime we're talking about, just seems to be numbers from an ongoing 18-year-long meeting presented by cops who think the only answer is more cops.  So, from my perspective as far as this thread goes, my understanding of the crime situation in Houston surely hasn't been enhanced . . . again, from my perspective, you don't even seem to have a good handle on it yourself.  For the same reason (and I'm sorry to be blunt), based on what you've posted thus far, forgive me to be skeptical if I question whether you have anything more than a superficial understanding of police headcount and crime statistics (or municipal budgets in the State of Texas), nonetheless the specifics of LA or Chicago and how the increased headcount has led to less crime--I mean it's totally contrary to the stereotype of Chicago, Republicans straight out use "Chicago" as a synonym for "crime."  As presented, it's finger to the wind, let's just try adding more cops . . . WHY NOT? 

4 hours ago, trymahjong said:

IMO—- monies seem to be found - if Mayor Turner desires it.

Let me guess, the cops told you that, too?

Edited June 15, 2022 by mattyt36

[trymahjong]

My goodness

 

Do I have a handle on the subject of crime? My thread started because I watch the crime statistics slide show every months and take home the booklet that shows crime events Street by street. So I am somewhat familiar with “crime” that directly affects me, my family and my part of town. “Police head count and crime statistics “  I’m in a room with dozens of cop of all ranks twice a month. The conversations are always about “police head counts and crime statistics. This isn’t a rarified atmosphere of collegiate researchers, but I am talking to patrol officers. These officers, bounce their opinions off other officers and “civilians “ as a participant you get a sense of what a shared opinion might be. I think that shared opinion is more cops are needed on the streets.

My post was a challenge to the Mayor for issuing a statement that conflicted with what HPD had been telling me. “What HPD has been telling me” IS where I get my information. BTW, my neighbors get their crime info from HPD also. It is a character building experience to be waylaid for admitting you trust the monthly crime information you get from police.

 

about “ getting the money to hire a kazillion new police officers.” ……..really it seems to me that if hiring lots of police were important- really important to Mayor Turner- the money would be found.

Edited June 16, 2022 by trymahjong

[mattyt36]

1 hour ago, trymahjong said:

My goodness

 

Do I have a handle on the subject of crime? My thread started because I watch the crime statistics slide show every months and take home the booklet that shows crime events Street by street. So I am somewhat familiar with “crime” that directly affects me, my family and my part of town. “Police head count and crime statistics “  I’m in a room with dozens of cop of all racks twice a month. The conversations are always about “police head counts and crime statistics. This isn’t a rarified atmosphere of collegiate researchers, but I am talking to patrol officers. These officers, bounce their opinions off other officers and “civilians “ as a participant you get a sense of what a shared opinion might be. I think that shared opinion is more copy are needed on the streets.

My post was a challenge to the Mayor for issuing a statement that conflicted with what HPD had been telling me. “What HPD has been telling me” IS where I get my information. BTW, my neighbors get their crime info from HPD also. It is a character building experience to be waylaid for admitting you trust the monthly crime information you get from police.

 

about “ getting the money to hire a kazillion new police officers.” ……..really it seems to me that if hiring lots of police were important- really important to Mayor Turner- the money would be found.

Understood, and the above summary is appreciated.  I guess, at the end of the day, it's best described as a "vent" or "just throwing this idea out there."

I'm on here because I've learned a lot, there are some really awesome people on this forum who share their particular expertise.  You've been going to these meetings for almost 20 years.  We could all gain from what you have heard and your perspective as to why things have changed (~20 years in the same neighborhood in Houston going to the same meetings, man that's rarefied air!) and how you think things could be better.

Seriously, could you share that?  We don't all go to these meetings.  Or at least I don't.

Similarly, are you interested in any perspective as to how the City of Houston budget works?  Now that you have been presented evidence to the contrary, does it change your perception of the information that you've been presented? 

Edited June 16, 2022 by mattyt36

[trymahjong]

Okay maybe I’m venting………venting at what though? 
 

hmmmm probably venting that Mayor Turner had the opportunity to have a positive effect on crime with that 44 million- but chose a route not promoted by his own police chief.

I was thinking about  concept of “expertise.
 

Attending all those PIP meeting didn’t make me an expert; anymore than being a parent for 43 years, would make me an expert on parenting. It’s more that being closely involved in something, during good and bad times, you cobbled together insight. You gain a respect for the insight that you have acquired.  Because TBT, living with an autistic child triumphs what ever expert opinion is floating around……attending years of HPD monthly meetings and listening to many patrol officers over the years (IMO) gives me an insight into things an” expert in the field” who has never attended nor conversed with HPD, won’t have. I agree my “ insight” is narrowly focused. And because I don’t claim to be an expert but rather a ….um…journeyman observer, who offers insights- it’s easy to get shamed. But it is what it is in public discourse. You want to share what you’ve learned; so you have to be willing to absorb the reactions you receive.

About learning how municipal budget operate. I guess over the years, attending more than a few city council meetings, having a few COH council people showing up at a few of the same events and being part of the same political party as a few elected officials- yes I think I have the rudiments of how the budget operates in real life. However, that doesn’t stop me from being snarky in my observations that, a strong Mayor somehow ( no I don’t know how) does a fiscal abracadabra and suddenly funds seem to become available.

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by trymahjong

[trymahjong]

I guess I get another chance to voice my skepticism at July 5 meeting- 1602 State Street- 7 pm

but

the topic is 3-1-1

The new version seems a mess and makes it difficult to post problems that are observed on street => non working traffic lights or stop signs that have been run over or graffiti etc, the replacement system is $&#@!
So I might get sidetracked

……it’s so hard to stay focused, when there are so many things to rant about……..sigh

[trymahjong]

Guess Covid is everywhere=> really everywhere.....the central1&2 division

(mainly montrose & Heights area)

shut down its meeting b/c covid last week

and now the citywide pip is shutting its meeting scheduled for tonite.

[dbigtex56]

On 6/29/2022 at 3:47 PM, trymahjong said:

I guess I get another chance to voice my skepticism at July 5 meeting- 1602 State Street- 7 pm

but

the topic is 3-1-1

The new version seems a mess and makes it difficult to post problems that are observed on street => non working traffic lights or stop signs that have been run over or graffiti etc, the replacement system is $&#@!
So I might get sidetracked

……it’s so hard to stay focused, when there are so many things to rant about……..sigh

I've made reports to 3-1-1 on a variety of issues, and their agents have been polite, efficient, and knowledgeable. Problems are resolved quickly; .
I hope whoever's responsible for suggesting these changes keeps their mitts off a system that's working just fine.
 

[editor]

On 7/12/2022 at 2:33 PM, trymahjong said:

Guess Covid is everywhere=> really everywhere.....the central1&2 division

(mainly montrose & Heights area)

shut down its meeting b/c covid last week

and now the citywide pip is shutting its meeting scheduled for tonite.

I saw a report this week that Houston's positivity rate is between 29 and 32%, based on wastewater testing.

[trymahjong]

From the COH newsletter

Police Chief Finner: Violent and Overall Crime Decreasing in Houston| 08-31-2022

 

In a positive crime summary report to Houston City Councilmembers today (Aug. 31), Houston Police Chief Troy Finner shared that violent crime in the City of Houston is down by 10% and overall crime is down 5% compared to the same time period one year ago.

A video of the chief's report to City Council can be found here.

The city’s murder rate, which showed an increase of more than 70% earlier this year, is now down 1% compared to this time last year. Unofficially, the city has recorded 300 murders in the first eight months of this year compared to 304 in the first eight months of 2021. 

A second major violent crime category of robbery is also down 7%. “It’s important that we get the numbers and facts right when we look at crime in our city so leaders around our city can have the right information,” said Chief Finner. 

Following the presentation, Chief Finner added, “We want our citizens to know that the men and women of HPD, our civilian staff, as well as our community, are all collectively fighting crime and making a positive difference.”

The Chief went on to thank Mayor Sylvester Turner and Houston City Council for their support. Chief Finner specifically highlighted the Mayor’s “One Safe Houston” program, which includes the overtime funding of 125 additional officers per day.

The full presentation by Chief Finner and HPD Assistant Chief Milton Martin to the City Council can be viewed on the above YouTube video.

The Chief’s PowerPoint presentation, including year-to-date crime numbers in each City Council District, is available at http://adobe.ly/3pZwGvW

 

 

 

 

[editor]

22 hours ago, trymahjong said:

compared to the same time period one year ago

You had me up to that point.

The pandemic has given politicians the ability to cherry-pick the years they compare with, since there were great swings in all kinds of statistics.

I'd like to know what it is compared with 2019, and compared with an average of the last decade.  Comparing anything to 2020 or 2021 is going to have little meaning, IMO.

[trymahjong]

I guess what stood out to me- 

“ One safe Houston” program of millions of dollars allowed 125 additional per day overtime officers to achieve 4 less murders year to date August  31, 2021—-August 31, 2022

[editor]

39 minutes ago, trymahjong said:

I guess what stood out to me- 

“ One safe Houston” program of millions of dollars allowed 125 additional per day overtime officers to achieve 4 less murders year to date August  31, 2021—-August 31, 2022

I'm not going to do the math and then try to decide how many lives should be saved at what dollar value per life.

[trymahjong]

I saw this on KHOU at 6

 

https://crime-stoppers.org/crime-stoppers-first-ever-state-of-public-safety-event-featured-powerful-statements-impassioned-pleas-for-action-and-the-roll-out-of-the-new-houston-crime-index/

[mattyt36]

This is why am always skeptical of this crime rhetoric, which always rears its head in election season. 

I really wish people like Ed Young would face consequences for being so overtly political (there are of course plenty of other and worse examples across the country). Time to yank tax-exempt status and come clean that this was all part of a deliberate political operation.

 

[mkultra25]

"What Second Baptist Pastor Ed Young said in a sermon last weekend may not be true"

 

[august948]

5 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

This is why am always skeptical of this crime rhetoric, which always rears its head in election season. 

I really wish people like Ed Young would face consequences for being so overtly political (there are of course plenty of other and worse examples across the country). Time to yank tax-exempt status and come clean that this was all part of a deliberate political operation.

 

You're right to be particularly skeptical of election season rhetoric. 

As for rescinding tax-exempt status there are specific rules for what does or does not trigger that.  I think we'd have to examine the actual speech Ed Young gave.  Right now all I've seen is what someone says that someone says that he said.

[mattyt36]

2 hours ago, august948 said:

You're right to be particularly skeptical of election season rhetoric. 

As for rescinding tax-exempt status there are specific rules for what does or does not trigger that.  I think we'd have to examine the actual speech Ed Young gave.  Right now all I've seen is what someone says that someone says that he said.

Oh boy, Augie, I didn’t know it was THAT bad. I know people saying things and hundreds of other people hearing it directly and then it being confirmed independently has increasingly confused a certain political demographic for a long time for matters of convenience (admittedly now at a logarithmic scale since 2016). For whatever reason, said demographic is completely incapable of contemplating that things as written, which make complete sense on their face by simple powers of observation, are or even can be accurate. Are you holding that it is likely that Ed Young didn’t even make the comments alleged in the Chronicle and it is all an innocent misunderstanding? Has Ed Young clarified, or perhaps apologized in good faith for any potential misunderstanding to “advance the dialogue”? Just say “SO WHAT? I don’t care.”

Instead of arguing over the circumstances, let’s start with first principles. IF the article is more-or-less accurate, why not tell us your position on the tax-exempt status? Cuz, pardon me for being presumptuous, survey says your answer is probably doesn’t matter, regardless (or, probably more likely “every tax-exempt organization is corrupt, so why does it matter?”), so why waste your time on arguing simple technicalities?

Best to focus on the substance of the issue than going out of the way to employ gaslighting techniques, i.e., “Did anyone hear him say literally those things, and, if he did, did anyone ask him if he was joking? And if he wasn’t joking, did anyone ask him if he literally believed it? Because if he believed it, no matter how ridiculous it was, it’s OK.” (Same sort of logic with claiming FBI planting documents, and then saying documents were declassified, then saying the documents were in private cartons, etc, and people still thinking everything is A-OK … half the country has seem to have lost its mind trying to make excuses for the absolute obvious. OJ Simpson and Claus Von Bulow would want you on their juries … everything is all just a coincidence and so many people have it out for me, so it can’t possibly be true! It’s certainly no coincidence Trump has Dershowitz in common between those two.)

Such is how propaganda works (if you even believe it to begin with, that is). But I suspect you know this. (At least the part of you that has not completely surrendered to cynicism does.)

Edited September 4, 2022 by mattyt36

[august948]

3 hours ago, mattyt36 said:

Oh boy, Augie, I didn’t know it was THAT bad. I know people saying things and hundreds of other people hearing it directly and then it being confirmed independently has increasingly confused a certain political demographic for a long time for matters of convenience (admittedly now at a logarithmic scale since 2016). For whatever reason, said demographic is completely incapable of contemplating that things as written, which make complete sense on their face by simple powers of observation, are or even can be accurate. Are you holding that it is likely that Ed Young didn’t even make the comments alleged in the Chronicle and it is all an innocent misunderstanding? Has Ed Young clarified, or perhaps apologized in good faith for any potential misunderstanding to “advance the dialogue”? Just say “SO WHAT? I don’t care.”

Instead of arguing over the circumstances, let’s start with first principles. IF the article is more-or-less accurate, why not tell us your position on the tax-exempt status? Cuz, pardon me for being presumptuous, survey says your answer is probably doesn’t matter, regardless (or, probably more likely “every tax-exempt organization is corrupt, so why does it matter?”), so why waste your time on arguing simple technicalities?

Best to focus on the substance of the issue than going out of the way to employ gaslighting techniques, i.e., “Did anyone hear him say literally those things, and, if he did, did anyone ask him if he was joking? And if he wasn’t joking, did anyone ask him if he literally believed it? Because if he believed it, no matter how ridiculous it was, it’s OK.” (Same sort of logic with claiming FBI planting documents, and then saying documents were declassified, then saying the documents were in private cartons, etc, and people still thinking everything is A-OK … half the country has seem to have lost its mind trying to make excuses for the absolute obvious. OJ Simpson and Claus Von Bulow would want you on their juries … everything is all just a coincidence and so many people have it out for me, so it can’t possibly be true! It’s certainly no coincidence Trump has Dershowitz in common between those two.)

Such is how propaganda works (if you even believe it to begin with, that is). But I suspect you know this. (At least the part of you that has not completely surrendered to cynicism does.)

Ok...

What I see above is that Young said Houston may be the most dangerous city in the country right now.  Shall we go get a rope?

A quick reading of the IRS rules reveals that you have to engage in extensive political activity as a representative of the church in question.  If you make it clear that this is your personal opinion, then that doesn't count (per the IRS).  That makes sense since, for now, we still have a right to free speech. 

So, on to his actual sermon, did he couch this as his personal opinion?  Did he directly blame Turner, Hidalgo, or Biden for the crime situation?  Did he implore his congregation to vote Republican in November?  We wouldn't know since we've only heard a paraphrase from a source of a source.

I've personally heard church pastors and other church leaders inveigh against real or perceived moral issues of the day from the pulpit.  That is not something new or limited to just well off, Republican leaning churches.  Without further context, it sounds like he was literally preaching to the choir.

[editor]

On 9/3/2022 at 10:34 PM, august948 said:

As for rescinding tax-exempt status there are specific rules for what does or does not trigger that. 

Is there an actual trigger, or is it like the FCC and no action is taken until someone files a complaint?

[august948]

7 hours ago, editor said:

Is there an actual trigger, or is it like the FCC and no action is taken until someone files a complaint?

I don't think it's an automatic thing.  I'm sure the IRS has to do an investigation, prompted either internally or externally.

[trymahjong]

From District C newsletter

 

Friends and neighbors,

Keeping District C families and neighborhoods safe from whatever may come our way is a top priority, and the City of Houston continues to address public safety comprehensively. This week at Council, HPD shared an important update dispelling misinformation about safety in our city. Violent crime is down 10% citywide compared to this time last year, and that decrease is even greater in our own district (12%). The rise of violent crime following the pandemic is not unique to Houston, but Hurricane Harvey and other disasters led to unprecedent challenges for communities that other cities around the country have not faced.

[mattyt36]

On 9/4/2022 at 4:55 AM, august948 said:

Ok...

What I see above is that Young said Houston may be the most dangerous city in the country right now.  Shall we go get a rope?

A quick reading of the IRS rules reveals that you have to engage in extensive political activity as a representative of the church in question.  If you make it clear that this is your personal opinion, then that doesn't count (per the IRS).  That makes sense since, for now, we still have a right to free speech. 

So, on to his actual sermon, did he couch this as his personal opinion?  Did he directly blame Turner, Hidalgo, or Biden for the crime situation?  Did he implore his congregation to vote Republican in November?  We wouldn't know since we've only heard a paraphrase from a source of a source.

I've personally heard church pastors and other church leaders inveigh against real or perceived moral issues of the day from the pulpit.  That is not something new or limited to just well off, Republican leaning churches.  Without further context, it sounds like he was literally preaching to the choir.

Augie, I don't think you're dense or of the dim variety, so I must question myself, how can that be "the take" of someone who I may disagree with politically, but think is sensible.  It's either you think this is all some sort of game, in which "nothing really matters" or you actually earnestly believe what you wrote.

To, as you say, "paraphrase":

Second Baptist pastor Ed Young calls for Democrats to be voted out during sermon (chron.com)

During Dr. Ed Young's sermon to Second Baptist Church in Houston Sunday, the prominent preacher called on congregants to vote out elected officials who he considers at fault for the city's crime. The pastor argued that "delayed justice," including bail bonds, is to blame for the rising rates and is what occurs when "you put left-wing progressives in office."

"If Houston and Harris County is to survive, we had better throw those bums out of office." said Young, who's served as lead pastor at Second Baptist Church since 1978. "They are not doing their job that we have called them to."

That seems, er, pretty black and white. Either it happened mostly as it was described or it didn't.  Maybe it was an innocent "slip of the tongue," so to speak.

If it didn't happen as described, Ed Young has had a week to correct the record.

He hasn't.

Ergo it more than likely happened mostly as it was described.

So, I ask again--very simple question--assuming the above happened (without even asking if you believe it), on a simple question of the rule of law as it exists (again, whether you agree with it or not is immaterial) . . . this is, as we say, "a question of principle" . . . do you think that guy should maintain the privileged tax-exempt status?  Just say yes, absolutely, this guy has it right and I don't care.  In fact, it'd be much better if the US had more religious leadership, the foundational tenet of religious freedom in the Constitution be damned.  It's much easier than going on about how "we don't have the facts . . . we only know what we have read" (Surely you never thought you would be one to say such a thing, or do I have you completely wrong?) and "actually, a quick read of the IRS code says . . . "  (If there's one thing I give the Republicans credit for, it's endurance, as I would find such pretzel logic beyond exhausting.)

Edited September 5, 2022 by mattyt36