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MidCenturyMoldy

Saudi Arabia Oil Turn & The COVID-19 Coronavirus

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On 3/14/2020 at 3:11 PM, Ross said:

Went to Sprouts on Yale today. Frozen veggies were gone, as were pasta and pasta sauce. Milk was available, as were eggs. No bread to speak of, They had paper products, but I am not paying "green" prices for that stuff. I'll either wait until things settle a bit, or drive out to the middle of nowhere.

HEB on W Alabama was picked clean. Managed some chicken, bread, cold cuts, toothpaste (seriously the last one), Orange Gatorade, random weird soups (cream of poblano), 4 ramens, frozen pizza, fruits & veggies, it was dismal. 

 

I heard the Whole Foods on Kirby is stocked.

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Randall's in midtown is the busiest I've ever seen it - so the typical number of customers in an HEB on a slow day

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Posted (edited)

Don't tell anyone, but Phoenicia downtown was well stocked and even had toilet paper on sunday. It could have changed over the last two days, so buyer beware.

 

Not my typical grocery haunt because I think the word Phoenicia is Mediterranean for expensive, but it was very nice to grab and go without having to fight people.

Edited by jermh
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Posted (edited)

most oil is in the mid 20s for price.

 

Halliburton just announced furloughs, which is better than just laying off, they are furloughed for 60 days. 

 

shit's about to get real, Houston is not going to be alone in this though.

Edited by samagon
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So, China dumps steel on the US market and Trump starts a trade war with big tariffs.  Saudis do the same with oil (yes, I know it is traded on an international market, but effect is the same) and no one bats an eyelash.  Is the benefit of cheap energy to US business great enough that the government just looks the other way and makes the O&G sector take one for the team?  Or is our alliance with SA as a counterweight to Iran more important than the domestic O&G sector?  

 

I can see how the 2015 glut was something that the energy sector could be expected to ride out as the economy was otherwise doing well.  But the Saudis' move potentially could set off a systemic crisis in financial markets with a waive of bond defaults coming out of the O&G sector and spreading to the rest of the corporate bond market.  Or does the government just let the Saudis have their fun, bailout the O&G sector and try to recoup the money in arms sales to the Saudis?

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On 3/10/2020 at 12:23 PM, arche_757 said:

All of this is pure speculation by everyone.

 

How many of the 75,000+ who were let go in ‘15-‘17 have been rehires in the oil industry?  A continued downturn will hurt, but it won’t be the end of the city.  Of course the depth and size of the global recession we are seeing signs of will ultimately determine how bad things get all over.  Interestingly this is all occurring in an Presidential election year here in the States.

 

the TMC and tech incubator projects aren’t going away, and they have funding regardless of what oil does.  If anything this virus may spur investors into medics/bio-medical more than tech or other industry?

 

...that said, I guess we will all see.  For once I’m going to try and be optimistic since s&?* could get REAL bad if Covid-19 mutates into a higher mortality rate virus, or another flu strain comes about next fall!  Ironically it was just a tad over a century ago when Spanish Influenza wrecked havoc, of course there aren’t many parallels to that since we don’t have a global war and famine caused by blockades.  Imagine how bad this would all be if MERS was running amok!!!  30% mortality rate.

 

The saving grace for humanity is that when a disease kills people quickly it doesn't spread very far or fast.  The reason covid19 is now a pandemic is that many people don't get visibly sick or only mildly sick and then quickly recover.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, s3mh said:

So, China dumps steel on the US market and Trump starts a trade war with big tariffs.  Saudis do the same with oil (yes, I know it is traded on an international market, but effect is the same) and no one bats an eyelash.  Is the benefit of cheap energy to US business great enough that the government just looks the other way and makes the O&G sector take one for the team?  Or is our alliance with SA as a counterweight to Iran more important than the domestic O&G sector?  

 

I can see how the 2015 glut was something that the energy sector could be expected to ride out as the economy was otherwise doing well.  But the Saudis' move potentially could set off a systemic crisis in financial markets with a waive of bond defaults coming out of the O&G sector and spreading to the rest of the corporate bond market.  Or does the government just let the Saudis have their fun, bailout the O&G sector and try to recoup the money in arms sales to the Saudis?

 

Trump sees oil prices as something that hurts the common man when they are high, and he has typically issued warnings to Saudi Arabia and O&G companies when oil crept above $60. This is part of his populist appeal. In terms of bailouts, I think any bailout or other government assistance to oil companies is politically toxic since they have such a bad guy image, especially with climate change. They have always relished their independence and free market spirit and this is just one of those times when that sword cuts the other way.

 

Edited by H-Town Man
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13 minutes ago, august948 said:

 

The saving grace for humanity is that when a disease kills people quickly it doesn't spread very far or fast.  The reason covid19 is now a pandemic is that many people don't get visibly sick or only mildly sick and then quickly recover.

 

Yeah its not really the virus itself that makes it a concern. Its the fact that we don't have an immunity to it, and if you have it you are contagious for a longer period of time, or if you only exhibit mild symptoms you are still contagious and can infect others for a longer period of time without knowing it.

 

23 minutes ago, s3mh said:

So, China dumps steel on the US market and Trump starts a trade war with big tariffs.  Saudis do the same with oil (yes, I know it is traded on an international market, but effect is the same) and no one bats an eyelash.  Is the benefit of cheap energy to US business great enough that the government just looks the other way and makes the O&G sector take one for the team?  Or is our alliance with SA as a counterweight to Iran more important than the domestic O&G sector?  

 

I can see how the 2015 glut was something that the energy sector could be expected to ride out as the economy was otherwise doing well.  But the Saudis' move potentially could set off a systemic crisis in financial markets with a waive of bond defaults coming out of the O&G sector and spreading to the rest of the corporate bond market.  Or does the government just let the Saudis have their fun, bailout the O&G sector and try to recoup the money in arms sales to the Saudis?

 

What makes China different than Saudi Arabia is that China poses a greater geopolitical threat than the Saudi's. While it sucks that the Saudi's are doing this and at this time, looking through the lens of realpolitik one understands that this is literally all the Saudi's have which prevents their country from going down the drain. While the Saudi's are responsible for a lot of stupid stuff, and we probably shouldn't be entangled with them as we are, again realpolitik, they are the one power in that region that keeps it from becoming a bloodbath of chaos. A lot of nations around the world would rather have a stable and consistent Saudi rule rather than the instable rule of others like Egypt or Iraq and Iran. Not to mention nobody likes Turkey who could easily sweep in take all that territory without a Saudi threat. Keeping the Saudi's going is the only way to keep the Mid East as is so it doesn't become an even worse place. China on the other hand if left uncheck as hit has been for decades now becomes a real geopolitical threat not only to its region, but to US interests. China pretends to act like a 3rd world nation in the trade market when its actually not that at all. It flooding the market in this way is very clear manipulation of the market which they don't have to do as they are powerful enough to not rely on one industry alone.

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3 hours ago, Luminare said:

 

... instable rule of others like Egypt or Iraq and Iran...

 

or even worse, like Libya.

 

if it weren't for the corona virus, we'd be staring at an escalating Libya conflict.

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this is as good a thread as any I guess to not only post oil updates, but covid-19 updates.

 

if you hear a rumor about the port of Houston closing, this is a gross overstatement:

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/port-of-houston-closes-2-terminals-after-worker-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/285-8daf3e82-91ba-4189-a3da-5490628e3870

 

just 2 terminals and from the way it reads, it's only going to be a short period of time.

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, samagon said:

this is as good a thread as any I guess to not only post oil updates, but covid-19 updates.

 

if you hear a rumor about the port of Houston closing, this is a gross overstatement:

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/port-of-houston-closes-2-terminals-after-worker-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/285-8daf3e82-91ba-4189-a3da-5490628e3870

 

just 2 terminals and from the way it reads, it's only going to be a short period of time.

 

With Trumps new wartime like powers enacted yesterday, this would be a great opportunity to petition the Pres direct medical industry spending to the city. The primary goal should be to start producing what is sensible at home instead of getting it all from China which isn't just the presidents priority, but is now dawning on everyone as a national priority. Our city is actually uniquely placed to really benefit from a renewed industry focus. We have a lot of warehouse space which could be converted to producing medical equipment, and medicine. We have a lot of cheap land to build new facilities. We have one of the biggest ports in the US which could then trade surplus medical equipment and supplies to our allies, and our central location within the nation would make us an ideal location sense it wouldn't take long to distribute resources to other parts of the nation in a good amount of time. Houston has a lot of new and fresh opportunities in front of it to really gain from this experience to help us better safeguard from the collapse of the Oil Industry and at the same time become a real engine for the nation at large.

Edited by Luminare

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I think there's going to be a lot of rethinking about getting everything exclusively from one country overseas - I could see a lot of bigger companies start spreading out their supply chains

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8 minutes ago, cspwal said:

I think there's going to be a lot of rethinking about getting everything exclusively from one country overseas - I could see a lot of bigger companies start spreading out their supply chains

 

I think @samagon makes an interesting case for talking about oil and covid in this thread. What a weird intersection for the follies of our nation over the past 20-40 years or even longer. I've started to say that; If our senseless and stupid foreign wars in the past were the death for Neo-conservatism, then this Pandemic, and failed policies which helped accelerate its spread will signal the death of Neo-Liberalism.

 

While I haven't liked the overreactions to all this, the silver lining is for the first time in a very long time the nation has a common goal and a common enemy, and this pandemic has reasserted why the nation-state is something to protect, and to maintain. Now looking back at how we let our companies put everything in China really creates of picture of how we were all sold-out. Not like its totally their fault, a lot of people stood to make a lot of money from doing that, but this whole situation clearly shows that its not only morally wrong, also a strategic failure to ask the 3rd World, and our Enemy's to be our factories just so I can get a slightly more affordable pair of sneakers. It would be one thing if it was our allies and we all worked together exchanging companies and work forces, but we literally are giving up our sovereignty to a nation that doesn't care about any of those things, and would be perfectly fine taking it away from us.

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3 hours ago, Luminare said:

 

With Trumps new wartime like powers enacted yesterday, this would be a great opportunity to petition the Pres direct medical industry spending to the city. The primary goal should be to start producing what is sensible at home instead of getting it all from China which isn't just the presidents priority, but is now dawning on everyone as a national priority. Our city is actually uniquely placed to really benefit from a renewed industry focus. We have a lot of warehouse space which could be converted to producing medical equipment, and medicine. We have a lot of cheap land to build new facilities. We have one of the biggest ports in the US which could then trade surplus medical equipment and supplies to our allies, and our central location within the nation would make us an ideal location sense it wouldn't take long to distribute resources to other parts of the nation in a good amount of time. Houston has a lot of new and fresh opportunities in front of it to really gain from this experience to help us better safeguard from the collapse of the Oil Industry and at the same time become a real engine for the nation at large.

 

I'm thinking also we need a toilet paper plant or two somewhere nearby...

 

BTW...IKEA is closed for anything other than pickup of online orders.  You have to wait in line outside to pick your order up.

 

 

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Oil is in the low $20s, and very likely headed to $14 at some point in the near future. This move,  along with the stock market/economic recession has been in the charts since well before Covid19 was ever a thing. It just makes a convenient driver to push a move that’s been set up over the edge of a cliff. Longest bull run in history. The fed has been printing money so fast it’ll make your head spin.. they’re printing another $10 TRILLION through the end of the month. 50% of our current national debt. All of this has led to serious over inflation of pretty much every financial asset in the world, and we were due for a reset. The fed cutting interest rates so early on certainly won’t help anything now that they can’t use that to curtail the economic recession when we continue to fall. Sure if we get lucky we’ll get a bounce this summer and people will claim all is well, but we’ll be far from being out of the woods just because the virus is (hopefully) behind us, and you can thank economic policy for that.

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On 3/13/2020 at 11:24 AM, Luminare said:

 

Agree. Hand sanitizer has utility because you don't need water, and its easy to apply. I just want 3. One for my car, one for at my work station, and one for when I walk through my door at home. Soap is good for when you have water.

 

Has anyone seen this at the stores yet?

 

https://www.fox26houston.com/news/houston-distillery-creates-bottles-of-hand-sanitizer

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Social distancing line at Central Market. There is a line out in the parking lot with a police officer keeping order.  This is to keep social distancing inside the store. Love CM’s professionalism. Never seen anything like this.  Unreal

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2 hours ago, Highrise Tower said:

Social distancing line at Central Market. There is a line out in the parking lot with a police officer keeping order.  This is to keep social distancing inside the store. Love CM’s professionalism. Never seen anything like this.  Unreal

 

Not just at CM, they are doing that at other H-E-B stores as well. The Heights store has distance markers both in the checkout lanes as well as in the parking garage where the line to get in forms during peak hours. I haven't had to wait in the access line yet, but even during non-pandemic times I tend to go closer to closing time, when there aren't nearly as many people shopping. 

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1 hour ago, mkultra25 said:

 

Not just at CM, they are doing that at other H-E-B stores as well. The Heights store has distance markers both in the checkout lanes as well as in the parking garage where the line to get in forms during peak hours. I haven't had to wait in the access line yet, but even during non-pandemic times I tend to go closer to closing time, when there aren't nearly as many people shopping. 

 

Target is doing the marker thing as well but I've found that unnecessary so far.  With higher prices than HEB people avoid the Super Targets for food shopping anyway so there's never a line or crowd.

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Even though I prefer shopping at my Montrose HEB I tried the Kroger on West Gray on early Sunday morning and they had the distance markers on the floor at the checkouts

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1 hour ago, hindesky said:

Even though I prefer shopping at my Montrose HEB I tried the Kroger on West Gray on early Sunday morning and they had the distance markers on the floor at the checkouts

 

How were the crowds?  That's been my main thing during this.  I'll pay a bit more to shop where there's few people around.  Come to think of it, I guess that's my normal preference since I usually do my shopping late at night to avoid lines.  Been avoiding the normal grocery stores during this thing, though.

 

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1 minute ago, august948 said:

 

How were the crowds?  That's been my main thing during this.  I'll pay a bit more to shop where there's few people around.  Come to think of it, I guess that's my normal preference since I usually do my shopping late at night to avoid lines.  Been avoiding the normal grocery stores during this thing, though.

 

I went there around 7:30 am and the crowds were tiny. I rode my bike all round the inner west loop area today and found that the Whole Foods and Krogers were very manageable sized crowds like on a normal day. I've been avoiding my HEB since I saw a line on a Sunday a couple Sundays ago.

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So I saw this yesterday and thought it was interesting...

 

https://www.foxnews.com/media/doctor-david-price-coronavirus

 

This doctor is working in a NYC hospital treating covid19 cases and says the virus is primarily being transmitted by direct contact.  His advice is to religiously clean your hands and refrain from touching your face.

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21 minutes ago, august948 said:

So I saw this yesterday and thought it was interesting...

 

https://www.foxnews.com/media/doctor-david-price-coronavirus

 

This doctor is working in a NYC hospital treating covid19 cases and says the virus is primarily being transmitted by direct contact.  His advice is to religiously clean your hands and refrain from touching your face.

I've been washing my hands like I've never done before. I also have created my own soapless hand sanitizers since they can't be found in the stores. Had many bottles of 99% alcohol and bought some Aloe and spritzing bottles from Amazon, just add a little essential oils to add a little scent to it.

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40 minutes ago, West Timer said:

All the stores had plenty of hand soap back when Obama was president. Eggs too. Just sayin'. 

 

 

 

That's about as relevant as Joe Biden.  Just saying...

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, august948 said:

 

That's about as relevant as Joe Biden.  Just saying...

You might be right. Hand soap and eggs are becoming increasingly more relevant by the hour. Just like Biden, they are now a hot commodity and going up in value (at least in the swing states where it counts). https://www.mediaite.com/news/fox-news-poll-shows-joe-biden-crushing-trump-by-25-points-in-swing-counties/

 

I know, I know, polls are only relevant if trump is leading in them, right? 🙄 But congrats on Trump's t.v. ratings. I'm glad he brings that topic up so often on his daily coronavirus/political revenge briefings. I'm sure it makes Americans feel a lot better and a lot safer and so confident about their jobs, mortgages, 401k's and parent's lives to know that Trump's t.v. ratings are so good these days.

 

If the stores being without hand soap and eggs and the hospitals being without mask and ventilators and Houston's energy industry having no future for the foreseeable future is what you people call "Great Again", I'll gladly settle for making America NORMAL again, like back when 'irrelevant' Biden was VP.

 

Edited by West Timer
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The thread seems to have veered away from the original topic so moved to the Off Topic area.

 

As a reminder, please keep political discussions out of the primary topic areas.  We have a space for those, so use it.

 

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I remain hopeful that the world will return back to normalcy, eventually. Seeing commercials about "no contact" is so unnerving. I get businesses will capitalize on this I just didn't expect it so quickly.

 

Gas going under a $1 per gallon is something I would have never thought I'd see again.

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Downstream projects that are currently under construction are considering long delays and staff reductions now. We could be seeing massive layoffs in about 3 weeks. This is about to start getting very, very bad. I never thought I would see multi billion dollar construction projects that are underway grind to a halt.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/29/2020 at 7:57 PM, august948 said:

So I saw this yesterday and thought it was interesting...

 

https://www.foxnews.com/media/doctor-david-price-coronavirus

 

This doctor is working in a NYC hospital treating covid19 cases and says the virus is primarily being transmitted by direct contact.  His advice is to religiously clean your hands and refrain from touching your face.

 

yes.

 

don't bother getting disposable gloves. go to your local garden center (or if you have some garden gloves, get them out), buy some gardening gloves.

 

wear them any time you leave your home, or your car.

 

I feel very silly walking through Kroger with gardening gloves on, and I feel equally silly when I am pumping gas with gardening gloves on, but it sure is a good reminder to not touch my face with them on. before I get in my car I toss them in the trunk of the car and hop in and drive away. 

 

after they've baked in your trunk for a day, anything that would have survived is going to be dead, so you can feel safe putting them on tomorrow. while gardening gloves are porous it's highly unlikely that the virus will bore through the gloves to get on your skin. I say gardening gloves because they are super easy to put on and take off without having to touch things that might have come in contact with the virus with your bare hands.

 

don't use this as a substitute for good hygiene, aka, wash your hands when you get home.

 

anyway, take it for whatever, and be safe out there, and if you see a weirdo wearing gardening gloves in the grocery store, wave at me.

Edited by samagon
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43 minutes ago, samagon said:

 

yes.

 

don't bother getting disposable gloves. go to your local garden center (or if you have some garden gloves, get them out), buy some gardening gloves.

 

wear them any time you leave your home, or your car.

 

I feel very silly walking through Kroger with gardening gloves on, and I feel equally silly when I am pumping gas with gardening gloves on, but it sure is a good reminder to not touch my face with them on. before I get in my car I toss them in the trunk of the car and hop in and drive away. 

 

after they've baked in your trunk for a day, anything that would have survived is going to be dead, so you can feel safe putting them on tomorrow. while gardening gloves are porous it's highly unlikely that the virus will bore through the gloves to get on your skin. I say gardening gloves because they are super easy to put on and take off without having to touch things that might have come in contact with the virus with your bare hands.

 

don't use this as a substitute for good hygiene, aka, wash your hands when you get home.

 

anyway, take it for whatever, and be safe out there, and if you see a weirdo wearing gardening gloves in the grocery store, wave at me.

 

Not a bad idea.  I've started carrying a small bottle of hand sanitizer in my pocket.  It's become part of my edc recently.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, jgriff said:

Downstream projects that are currently under construction are considering long delays and staff reductions now. We could be seeing massive layoffs in about 3 weeks. This is about to start getting very, very bad. I never thought I would see multi billion dollar construction projects that are underway grind to a halt.

 

More people are coming to grips with new realities and

Are now realizing that we are just

Going to have to adapt and 

Adjust to having much, much less in the future.

We Houstons never knew how good we had it

All along. But now we

Should really think

About preparing for life without a lot of things we used to 

Help ourselves to without having to consider the consequences.

Our decisions and future

Actions now could hurt us by

Xmas if we keep making excuses for believing excuses.

Edited by West Timer
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44 minutes ago, West Timer said:

 

More people

Are just

Going to have to 

Adjust to having much, much less in the future.

We

All

Should really think

About

How

Our

Actions now could hurt us by

Xmas

 

Trying for poet laureate again?

 

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58 minutes ago, West Timer said:

 

More people are coming to grips with new realities and

Are now realizing that we are just

Going to have to adapt and 

Adjust to having much, much less in the future.

We Houstons never knew how good we had it

All along. But now we

Should really think

About preparing for life without a lot of things we used to 

Help ourselves to without having to consider the consequences.

Our decisions and future

Actions now could hurt us by

Xmas if we keep making excuses for believing excuses.


There comes a point when the solution is worse than the problem. I’m starting to think 2% of the population dying might be a sacrifice we should make. After another month of this we might be very close to social unrest caused by economic issues, not medical ones.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, jgriff said:


There comes a point when the solution is worse than the problem. I’m starting to think 2% of the population dying might be a sacrifice we should make. After another month of this we might be very close to social unrest caused by economic issues, not medical ones.

 

I think the leaders of Jonestown were saying something like that just before they forced little kids to swallow poison Koolaid.  The fact that so many people are entertaining the idea of sacrificing OTHERS so that they can live without "social unrest" makes me think that we may be already seeing the collapse of civilized society (that's MAGA for ya).

 

Do whatever you want. When you are finally face to face with death, I'm sure it will be a great comfort for you to know that I can still go to the Galleria. But if you think that anyone else should sacrifice themselves for YOUR cause, please feel free to SMD. Just because MAGA failed doesn't mean the rest of us have to die. Have a nice day. 🙂

Edited by West Timer

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3 hours ago, West Timer said:

It's a talent. Don't be jealous. 😎

 

Let not your heart be troubled on that score.

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11 hours ago, august948 said:

 

Let not your heart be troubled on that score.

😎 Whatev bro. Just stay heathy and try not to hoard too much "hoax" soap.✌️

 

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, jgriff said:


There comes a point when the solution is worse than the problem. I’m starting to think 2% of the population dying might be a sacrifice we should make. After another month of this we might be very close to social unrest caused by economic issues, not medical ones.

 

I sincerely doubt this will happen. 

 

2 reasons,

 

there are some very promising reports of therapeutic remedies. France has cleared the use of the malaria drug for use after 78 of 80 people treated with it got better in 5 days, as opposed to the typical 14 or longer days.  https://www.dailywire.com/news/france-officially-sanctions-drug-after-78-of-80-patients-recover-from-covid-19-within-five-days

 

the other is that you look at countries like Japan, HK and SIngapore that should be just as devastated as the rest of us, but clearly they are on a much more linear infection rate compared to the almost E^N infection rate everywhere else sees. the difference is that their society already wears masks pretty much all the time.

 

04264f650cc8a836a1c4fb009e0caea1.jpg

 

there are some reports I've read today that say that 50% of the people infected will never show any symptoms, but will be able to transmit the virus (I've read so much on this up to this point I can't remember where I read that, or where the article was). the point is, wear masks to reduce the risk to the rest of society if you are an unknowing carrier.

 

sure there are other factors in mitigating the spread in those countries, but if someone said to you, you can go about your lives as normal IF you wear a mask, otherwise, you stay at home. it's the responsible thing to do right now. I'm sure a lot of people would be happy to oblige, especially if there were some drugs that could be administered that reduced the severity/longevity of this.

 

check the graph on this page, and select Texas. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

they project that we have 5 weeks in Texas before we hit the maximum cases using our current protocols.

 

considering we are realistically staring at another 5 weeks of lockdown style approach (and we're only through 2 weeks up to now), if either/both of these things happened, and we could get back to our typical (with modifications) routine, that would be awesome.

 

but yeah, it is going to take a lot of bank forgiveness/leniency to every level of loan, and a lot of landlord forgiveness/leniency to every level of lease agreement, and hundreds of other things to keep this from spiraling out of control in a bad way. I seem to believe that society will come together to do what's right to keep society intact.

 

at the end of the day, I'm scared for friends that owe rent, I'm scared for my wife who might lose her job, I'm scared for my parents who are in the extremely vulnerable group, I'm scared for myself. I grieve for my friends that have already lost friends and family to this virus. 

 

this is a shitshow that will absolutely effect every single one of us in a way that we probably don't want to even imagine right now. 

 

as a society though, we have to stay positive, and work towards the best. help those you can help, and at the least, do your part to prevent the spread of this deadly virus.

Edited by samagon

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17 hours ago, jgriff said:

There comes a point when the solution is worse than the problem. I’m starting to think 2% of the population dying might be a sacrifice we should make. After another month of this we might be very close to social unrest caused by economic issues, not medical ones.

 

The population of the US is roughly 325,000,000. 2% of that is 6,500,000.

 

I am neither a straight-ticket voter nor a Sandernista, but the fact that this and similar viewpoints appear to have gained traction on social media platforms over the past few days as something to be seriously considered leads me to believe that, if anything, we are long overdue for "social unrest caused by economic issues".

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The point isn't to sacrifice x% of people merely to avoid economic harm. The point is that, at a certain point, economic harm is also bad for society's health and could in fact cause more deaths than the x% being "sacrificed".

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1 hour ago, mkultra25 said:

 

The population of the US is roughly 325,000,000. 2% of that is 6,500,000.

 

I am neither a straight-ticket voter nor a Sandernista, but the fact that this and similar viewpoints appear to have gained traction on social media platforms over the past few days as something to be seriously considered leads me to believe that, if anything, we are long overdue for "social unrest caused by economic issues".

 

yeah, I don't think anyone that says these things actually think through what would actually happen in that scenario. the speed with which this virus can infect a population is nothing short of astonishing.

 

when you look at numbers from such a sanitary distance it's hard to put contextualize the reality of what you are suggesting.

 

put those numbers in Houston metro area, if the population of the greater Houston area is 6 million. 120,000 people would die this year in Houston alone.

 

if there are 50 people that work at your office, 1 of them is going to die. and it's probably not going to be the young aggressive sales guy no one likes, it will be the super nice lady who is about a year from retirement that does random admin tasks.

 

the reality is that it hits older people harder. I think the stats are that if you are over 70 there is a 1 in 7 chance of not surviving? those odds are for shit, maybe the people who want to just let this thing run its course can figure out a way to have this virus target their parents rather than mine?

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7 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

The point isn't to sacrifice x% of people merely to avoid economic harm. The point is that, at a certain point, economic harm is also bad for society's health and could in fact cause more deaths than the x% being "sacrificed".

 

this I can see, but I absolutely believe that there will not need to be a choice between civil unrest (and the resultant deaths), or back to business as usual (and the resultant deaths).

 

I am pretty sure that as we continue through this month the sobering reality of how many people will be affected by this virus will help calm anyone leaning towards civil unrest.

 

and there will continue to be medical discoveries of medications found to keep people out of hospitals and keep them from dying (which will allow us to all go back to work without 1 out of 50 people dying).

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, samagon said:

 

this I can see, but I absolutely believe that there will not need to be a choice between civil unrest (and the resultant deaths), or back to business as usual (and the resultant deaths).

 

I am pretty sure that as we continue through this month the sobering reality of how many people will be affected by this virus will help calm anyone leaning towards civil unrest.

 

and there will continue to be medical discoveries of medications found to keep people out of hospitals and keep them from dying (which will allow us to all go back to work without 1 out of 50 people dying).

 

Just to be clear, the harms to health that can be expected to arise from an economic shutdown (or massive slowdown) are not due to civil unrest. It's about the million little things that would not longer be economically viable...  money no longer available to invest in medical care, medical research, better building standards (there's a reason wealthier societies generally suffer fewer casualties from earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.), better food production and distribution . . . Not to mention the fact that, without jobs (and income), it's kinda hard for people to buy food, shelter, medicine, and healthcare.

 

Indeed, we hope there will continue to be medical discoveries, but without an economy to support that research and production...

Edited by Houston19514

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18 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

 

Just to be clear, the harms to health that can be expected to arise from an economic shutdown (or massive slowdown) are not due to civil unrest. It's about the million little things that would not longer be economically viable...  money no longer available to invest in medical care, medical research, better building standards (there's a reason wealthier societies generally suffer fewer casualties from earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.), better food production and distribution . . .

 

Indeed, we hope there will continue to be medical discoveries, but without an economy to support that research and production...

 

I don't see that as even a remotely possible outcome.

 

This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. 

 

that is a quote from Franklin Roosevelt's inauguration speech in 1933. While Trump (and any of his challengers) is no where near as capable as he was, the message is still true. we've got car companies gearing up to make ventilators. we've got DIYers 3d printing PPE, this nation is banding together to survive, through the worst of this (and it is still yet to come), we will see the best of humanity come to the top.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, samagon said:

 

I don't see that as even a remotely possible outcome.

 

This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. 

 

that is a quote from Franklin Roosevelt's inauguration speech in 1933. While Trump (and any of his challengers) is no where near as capable as he was, the message is still true. we've got car companies gearing up to make ventilators. we've got DIYers 3d printing PPE, this nation is banding together to survive, through the worst of this (and it is still yet to come), we will see the best of humanity come to the top.

 

A massive economic slowdown is not a remotely possible outcome????   It's already happening.  At the margins (which is where everything happens), there are already millions of people whose future health outlooks are diminished as a result of the shutdowns, and millions more to come.  As a society, we will in fact be less prosperous and therefore have reduced health outlooks.  I don't pretend to know where the crossover point is, but it's a discussion that should be had, openly and honestly, without hyperbolic claims that to have the discussion means you want to sacrifice 2% of our population or all old people.

Edited by Houston19514

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