I-45 Rebuild (North Houston Highway Improvement Project)

[samagon]

12 hours ago, ADCS said:

Jeff Speck. Didn't he say he was never coming back to Houston?

 

if you can't refute the points he makes, you have to attack the person, I guess?

[ADCS]

10 hours ago, samagon said:

 

if you can't refute the points he makes, you have to attack the person, I guess?

 

It's perfectly valid to attack his credibility as someone using this issue to grind a particular political axe, rather than someone closely tied to and invested in the community and the people who the project will impact.

[Ross]

10 hours ago, samagon said:

 

if you can't refute the points he makes, you have to attack the person, I guess?

The points he makes are stupidly simplistic. He's a man on a mission to reshape Houston, a city he apparently hates, to fit a mold that will never work here. The outer suburbs are going to grow, there's little to be done about that, since the people who buy homes there can't find what they want at the price they are willing to pay, in the central area. Speck implies that if you make the highway suck enough, people will move closer to Downtown. Just where does he think the million plus people who moved to the area recently would live? How many people would be displaced to build Inner Loop housing acceptable to new arrivals?

[crock]

20 minutes ago, Ross said:

The points he makes are stupidly simplistic. He's a man on a mission to reshape Houston, a city he apparently hates, to fit a mold that will never work here. The outer suburbs are going to grow, there's little to be done about that, since the people who buy homes there can't find what they want at the price they are willing to pay, in the central area. Speck implies that if you make the highway suck enough, people will move closer to Downtown. Just where does he think the million plus people who moved to the area recently would live? How many people would be displaced to build Inner Loop housing acceptable to new arrivals?

 

they're stupidly simplistic because they've literally been proven true time and time again across the globe. 

[Ross]

2 hours ago, crock said:

 

they're stupidly simplistic because they've literally been proven true time and time again across the globe. 

Possibly for cities that have similar attributes. Not for Houston. Houston is very different from the so called great cities Speck mentioned. Speck provides no idea on how to make his "dreams" happen. He says Houston needs better transit, but doesn't say what he means by better. He doesn't mention that Houston has multiple downtown equivalents, that make transit harder to implement. There's nothing on how disruptive construction of any sort of rail would be, with similar land taking as the freeway expansion if it's done right. Nothing on where, and how, new residents would live. 

[mollusk]

Induced demand is a thing, and it affects more than just the part of a given highway that was expanded.  Everyone points to how the Katy is now even more sclerotic outside the loop than it was before; what gets overlooked is that portions inside the loop that were previously generally free flowing except for at the height of rush hour are now a hot mess for most of the day.

 

Sure, one lane of highway takes up about the same amount of space as one track - but it has nowhere near the carrying capacity, nor anywhere near the bang for the buck in energy consumption. 

 

For the minimum of $7 billion that the I45 expansion is projected to cost, you could build more than 50 miles of light rail (using the Green/Purple lines as a benchmark); and 30+ miles of commuter heavy rail (using BART's San Jose extension as the benchmark). 

[Texasota]

Good transit actually does work well with multiple downtowns, because good transit works well when it's frequent in both directions. The larger problem is that Houston's population is so spread out. That said, if you look just at "urban" Houston, or Houston inside the Loop + Uptown, you actually have a city that's directly comparable in size *and population density* to places like Baltimore, Portland, the Twin Cities, etc. 

[Ross]

The updated Katy carries a huge amount of traffic compared to the old road. I've seen all sorts of claims about induced demand, but no evidence that the new residents in the Katy area wouldn't be there regardless of the freeway. After all, where else are you going to put several hundred thousand new residents if not in the vast open areas on the West side of Houston.Without the Katy Freeway update, congestion would be even worse. I also haven't seen a shred of evidence that all of those new residents would be willing to take the train to their destinations. The general comment I get when I ask about trains is that "they are for other people, and to make my drive easier".

 

"Urban" Houston is nothing like Baltimore, Portland, etc. Where would you run rail in "urban Houston" without also destroying the ability of people to get around the areas near where they live?

 

I am not totally opposed to more transit, including rail, but I've seen nothing that gives a warm fuzzy feeling that it would actually work here. I know there are lots of folks who have no problem with transit making it hard on the people who live between them and their destination, but that has to be considered. In other words, the folks who live in Afton Oaks have to be considered when you want to build rail along Richmond, since it would make getting in and out of their subdivision very difficult.

[crock]

1 hour ago, Ross said:

"Urban" Houston is nothing like Baltimore, Portland, etc. Where would you run rail in "urban Houston" without also destroying the ability of people to get around the areas near where they live?

 

have you been to Baltimore? their rail/lightrail set up is very similar to Houstons.  Both Baltimore and Houston were built out with streetcar suburbs.  In what way is Houston "nothing like" Baltimore? 

Also, who cares about Katy? If people want to keep making unsustainable and slightly racist "But our school district" decisions, why should the urban core keep having to make the sacrifices? 

It's cute you're talking about "getting out of our subdivision would be difficult" out as if the reason the Afton Oaks people didn't kill the richmond line was pure and blatant racism.  
 

Edited September 8, 2019 by crock

[Texasota]

What exactly do you mean by "destroying the ability of people to get around the areas near where they live"? That's certainly what freeways do, and heavy rail absolutely can as well unless it's effectively mitigated, but how does light rail do that? Or BRT? or subways (of any kind)? Or elevated rail running along existing freeway corridors?

  

 

You're making a lot of broad statements without really defining what you mean. You say ""Urban" Houston is nothing like Baltimore, Portland, etc", but I just described exactly how they are similar - size and population density. Population density is a pretty commonly referenced measure when it comes to transit efficacy - what exactly makes inner loop Houston different? Particularly since I referenced very different cities in three very different regions of the country?

[Texasota]

For quick reference (and just to inject some actual numbers in here):

 

The Planning dept. tweeted out the change in number of households and people per household from 2000 to 2017 inside the loop. 

 

Doing some quick math, that puts the population inside the loop in 2017 at 524,960. Not including West University, Bellaire, or Southside. Inner Loop Houston is (roughly) 97 square miles, so that makes for a population density of 5,412/sq. mile. 

 

 

For comparison (pulled from Wikipedia for the sake of not spending forever on this post);

 

Pittsburgh (2018): 58.34 sq. miles; 301,048 people; 5,160 people/ sq. mile

Baltimore (2018): 92 sq. miles; 602,495 people; 6,549 people/ sq. mile

Portland (2018): 133 sq. miles; 583,776 people; 4,389 people/sq. mile

Twin Cities (2018): ~110 sq. miles; 733,098 people; ; 6,665 people per sq. mile

 

These are pretty rough numbers (some include water and some don't for one thing) but I think they're illuminating. 

 

[Ross]

 

2 hours ago, crock said:

 

have you been to Baltimore? their rail/lightrail set up is very similar to Houstons.  Both Baltimore and Houston were built out with streetcar suburbs.  In what way is Houston "nothing like" Baltimore? 

Also, who cares about Katy? If people want to keep making unsustainable and slightly racist "But our school district" decisions, why should the urban core keep having to make the sacrifices? 

It's cute you're talking about "getting out of our subdivision would be difficult" out as if the reason the Afton Oaks people didn't kill the richmond line was pure and blatant racism.  
 

 

The last time I was in Baltimore was 1976. I have no real desire or need to go there. People have to live somewhere, and all of you folks keep thinking it's not in Katy. Where would you have them live? Are you going to take large quantities of Inner Loop land by eminent domain and build social housing high rises? That's what I mean, no one proposes any alternatives in any sort of practical detail. Do you have actual evidence that Afton Oaks residents were motivated by racism? Or is it some sort of meme you dreamed up?

 

Very few of the people who live in Katy would be willing to buy a house where I live in the Greater Heights, because they aren't willing to pay $400k for a 2BR 1 bath house when they have a couple of kids and need more room. It's not all about the school district, it's more about lifestyle, separate rooms for all of the kids, a yard where kids can play, at a price that's affordable. My parents bought in Katy in the early 80's because they wanted a new house, and it was not a bad commute to where my Dad worked off of San Felipe. That's a very common desire today as well.

 

1 hour ago, Texasota said:

What exactly do you mean by "destroying the ability of people to get around the areas near where they live"? That's certainly what freeways do, and heavy rail absolutely can as well unless it's effectively mitigated, but how does light rail do that? Or BRT? or subways (of any kind)? Or elevated rail running along existing freeway corridors?

  

 

You're making a lot of broad statements without really defining what you mean. You say ""Urban" Houston is nothing like Baltimore, Portland, etc", but I just described exactly how they are similar - size and population density. Population density is a pretty commonly referenced measure when it comes to transit efficacy - what exactly makes inner loop Houston different? Particularly since I referenced very different cities in three very different regions of the country?

Baltimore, Portland, etc are different geographically. The fact that Inner Loop Houston has the same density, population, and other characteristics is irrelevant because Houston is surrounded by miles of empty, flat land, and those other places aren't. They are hemmed in by waterways, mountains, and other natural features.

 

Most of the proposals for transit over the past few years have been for light rail running on existing streets. Which makes sense, because there's no place else for it to run. All of those rail lines would make travel more difficult if the rail doesn't go to your destination. The current light rail lines show that in painful detail. We can get from the greater Heights to where my in laws live without too much interference from the North extension to the Red Line, but getting back home requires a 20 block detour from the old route because the rail blocks all of the turns we used to take. And the times I've seen trains go by over there, they are empty.

[mollusk]

Having a rail line on the other side of the Southwest Freeway from the middle of Greenway Plaza west (a design accommodation that was made ages ago) won't affect access to Afton Oaks in any realistic way, shape, or form. 

 

Judging by how full the park and ride buses are here, as is the commuter rail elsewhere, it's likely that if a rail alternative were there people in Katy, The Woodlands, etc., etc. would use it.

[Texasota]

I find the idea that the Red Line gets in the way of travel to be, if nothing else, totally at odds with my own experience. I don't know which specific routes you take to which specific neighborhoods, but I've never had to go 20 blocks out of my way because of the light rail. Maybe 2. If there is a 20 block stretch somewhere up on the north side with a 20 block detour, then that's just a bad design - it's not inherent to light rail running in the street.

[Texasota]

I'm also not sure how geography is relevant, but the Twin Cities, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh are not "hemmed in." The Twin Cities in particular have no topological features obstructing outward growth. Now, they are surrounded by other cities unlikely to take kindly to being annexed, but that's not the same thing.

 

But regardless - where would people go? Inside the Loop! Outside the Loop! The city is simultaneously densifying and growing outward; it's just a matter of incentivizing development further in over greenfield development.

[samagon]

23 hours ago, ADCS said:

 

It's perfectly valid to attack his credibility as someone using this issue to grind a particular political axe, rather than someone closely tied to and invested in the community and the people who the project will impact.

 

alright, well, I agree 100% with his views, I am closely tied to and invested in the community (indeed, I am a member of the community). so are you going to attack my credibility? In reality, you are just going to divert again, because you can't argue against the claims he's making they're all true. 

 

19 hours ago, Ross said:

Possibly for cities that have similar attributes. Not for Houston. Houston is very different from the so called great cities Speck mentioned. Speck provides no idea on how to make his "dreams" happen. He says Houston needs better transit, but doesn't say what he means by better. He doesn't mention that Houston has multiple downtown equivalents, that make transit harder to implement. There's nothing on how disruptive construction of any sort of rail would be, with similar land taking as the freeway expansion if it's done right. Nothing on where, and how, new residents would live. 

 

every city is different. the needs of the humans living in every city is the same. we all need transportation, and the more options that a person has the higher their quality of life will be.

 

15 hours ago, Ross said:

The updated Katy carries a huge amount of traffic compared to the old road. I've seen all sorts of claims about induced demand, but no evidence that the new residents in the Katy area wouldn't be there regardless of the freeway. After all, where else are you going to put several hundred thousand new residents if not in the vast open areas on the West side of Houston.Without the Katy Freeway update, congestion would be even worse. I also haven't seen a shred of evidence that all of those new residents would be willing to take the train to their destinations. The general comment I get when I ask about trains is that "they are for other people, and to make my drive easier".

 

"Urban" Houston is nothing like Baltimore, Portland, etc. Where would you run rail in "urban Houston" without also destroying the ability of people to get around the areas near where they live?

 

I am not totally opposed to more transit, including rail, but I've seen nothing that gives a warm fuzzy feeling that it would actually work here. I know there are lots of folks who have no problem with transit making it hard on the people who live between them and their destination, but that has to be considered. In other words, the folks who live in Afton Oaks have to be considered when you want to build rail along Richmond, since it would make getting in and out of their subdivision very difficult.

 

Ross, you are hiding from reality if you are unable to see that in every instance of Houston freeway expansion that whatever community is at the fringe of the city at that point get a huge population increase only AFTER the freeway is created, or made larger.

 

Katy has always been expanding and increasing their neighborhoods, but since the freeway was made wider, it has been positively exploding. Go up on 290 today and you'll see earth being moved farther out than you'd expect, huge subdivisions being built and land being infilled. coincidence that 290 just recently finished? In your mind, I'm sure.

[crock]

12 hours ago, Ross said:

 

 

The last time I was in Baltimore was 1976. I have no real desire or need to go there. People have to live somewhere, and all of you folks keep thinking it's not in Katy. Where would you have them live?

 

you say this as if Baltimore is supposed to care about Columbia's transit, or that Portland is supposed to care about Salem.   That is the problem with Houston, suburban people think they should have a say in the city itself, thats not true of other places. 

[samagon]

and here's a survey to complete, if you haven't already:

https://survey123.arcgis.com/share/3725a3932c544974990a9a2e1d6cef7e

[Texasota]

And that's actually a big problem in Baltimore - the light rail was designed to serve people commuting in from Towson, not people living in the city. It actually bypasses closer in neighborhoods. Our light rail lines are actually substantially better in that respect.

[gmac]

17 hours ago, crock said:

 

Also, who cares about Katy? If people want to keep making unsustainable and slightly racist "But our school district" decisions, why should the urban core keep having to make the sacrifices? 

 

 

Excellent job displaying your complete ignorance. Bravo, bravo.

 

Might want to visit Katy and see how diverse it is, bubs. Nahhhh, easier for you just to sling BS.

[Houston19514]

Speck's "analysis" is sloppy, at best.  For example, the 55% increase in congestion that he cites as having occurred on the Katy Freeway was not from before widening to after widening. That claim is flatly false.  The cited increase was between 2011 and 2014 (on a particular segment at a particular time of day).  That hardly proves or even suggests that the widening was a boondoggle. It only shows what happens when a metro area adds more than 100,000 people every year.  (The most amazing thing is, he provided the link to the data and either did not understand it or intentionally misrepresented it.)

 

Another example, Houston has been doing some congestion pricing for years (I think before Dallas ever thought of doing it), first on the Katy Freeway, then on all of the HOV lanes, and a good portion of this project is for the purpose of providing lanes for mass transit/car pools/congestion pricing.

 

Also, he tells us the freeway will promptly be as congested as before (or more), but in the next breath tells us it will be more dangerous, in spite of design improvements, because cars will be going so much faster.  Which is it, Jeff?  It can't be both.

Edited September 9, 2019 by Houston19514

[Texasota]

I actually agree that Speck's analysis is a bit... rushed, if nothing else, but I think your last point misses his. 

 

Congestion can absolutely get worse while crashed also become more dangerous - just at different times of day. A road designed to hold hundreds of thousands of cars will naturally become a speedway whenever it's not packed, and even with the worst congestion in the country there will still be times of day when the road is clear. Like 3am, for example, when it will be half full of drunk drivers.

[X.R.]

Now that @Houston19514 mentioned congestion pricing, I am sorta sad that so much of 288 is going to involve a toll. If we're being honest, the 288 expansion was needed (it was a parking lot going from the Land of Pears to...anywhere in the city using 288). It is truly congestion traffic, as opposed to shitty freeway design. Its kind of shitty to those people since house prices aren't really crazy in new Pearland (can still get a house for 200k or so, but only with a decent downpayment) so I dunno if paying 3 dollars every day (going and coming) is going to make those people very happy. Plus you got sunnyside and orem and stella link over there, and those lower income peeps use 288 too. Living in the land of pears/sunnyside and workin in Med Center/downtown is going to be a good more expensive.

 

I say all that just to mention that we're about to have a massive highway improvement project finish up by end of the year (and dont forget the beltway 8 expansion in that area too). There is a loooot of land just south of 610 and north of the belt in that area, so we can see if all that finally gets infilled or not with this massive expansion down south. Potentially a perfect test case.

[crock]

5 hours ago, gmac said:

 

Excellent job displaying your complete ignorance. Bravo, bravo.

 

Might want to visit Katy and see how diverse it is, bubs. Nahhhh, easier for you just to sling BS.

 

saying Katy is diverse is fine and all, but you're the one displaying your complete ignorance if you think white flight is "BS" or somehow not racist. 

Edited September 9, 2019 by crock

[Houston19514]

2 hours ago, Texasota said:

I actually agree that Speck's analysis is a bit... rushed, if nothing else, but I think your last point misses his. 

 

Congestion can absolutely get worse while crashed also become more dangerous - just at different times of day. A road designed to hold hundreds of thousands of cars will naturally become a speedway whenever it's not packed, and even with the worst congestion in the country there will still be times of day when the road is clear. Like 3am, for example, when it will be half full of drunk drivers.

 

But that is true today as well.  There are times of the day now when the road is clear.  No, he is specifically claiming that adding capacity to the freeway will make it more dangerous because drivers will be going faster on average all the time.  (and note that he just bases it on the statistic that, at some point, higher speeds lead to higher death rates; he doesn't even attempt to show that such speeds will be routinely achieved after this project and not before, nor does he show us any information that traffic flowing at higher speeds in a case such as this inherently causes more crashes.  He's the "expert" on this matter.  Does he not have the crash numbers pre- and post-Katy freeway expansion?  My guess is, he does, but they don't prove his point.

 

His adoption of the "Katy Freeway is the largest freeway in the world" lie and the "Katy Freeway Expansion Only Made Things Worse" lie destroys his credibility.

 

Add to that, the fact that he seems to have little knowledge about this project or about Houston in general.  As I mentioned earlier, a huge portion of the capacity expansion provided by this project is for mass transit/HOV/congestion pricing.  He seems to be completely unaware of this fact.  Also, this project will completely remove a stretch of freeway and also place large segments of freeway below grade to dramatically reduce the amount of disconnection. He seems unaware of that as well.(We hear the glories of Rochester New York because they removed a small, little-used spur, but no acknowledgment of the amount of re-connection this project provides.)

 

There's more.  He says that Independence Heights was "completely omitted from the Historical Resources Survey".  That seems to be an overstatement.  .http://www.ih45northandmore.com/docs10/190315A_Draft_HRSR_Update_Watermark.pdf

 

 

[mollusk]

I'm perfectly happy to shoot that particular messenger.  Still, when the West Loop was rebuilt they kept the same capacity and it didn't kill us. 

[gmac]

1 hour ago, crock said:

 

saying Katy is diverse is fine and all, but you're the one displaying your complete ignorance if you think white flight is "BS" or somehow not racist. 

 

You're wrong, just admit it and move on. You claim that it is still happening due to racism. It's not. Most people with families buy where they can afford a nice home, and that is certainly not inside the loop or downtown.

[Houston19514]

35 minutes ago, mollusk said:

I'm perfectly happy to shoot that particular messenger.  Still, when the West Loop was rebuilt they kept the same capacity and it didn't kill us. 

 

That's not exactly true. While they didn't add lanes, they did add capacity, through better design.  Also note that we are even now inserting additional capacity into the West Loop by adding the lanes for Metro Rapid BRT.

[samagon]

21 hours ago, X.R. said:

Now that @Houston19514 mentioned congestion pricing, I am sorta sad that so much of 288 is going to involve a toll. If we're being honest, the 288 expansion was needed (it was a parking lot going from the Land of Pears to...anywhere in the city using 288). It is truly congestion traffic, as opposed to shitty freeway design. Its kind of shitty to those people since house prices aren't really crazy in new Pearland (can still get a house for 200k or so, but only with a decent downpayment) so I dunno if paying 3 dollars every day (going and coming) is going to make those people very happy. Plus you got sunnyside and orem and stella link over there, and those lower income peeps use 288 too. Living in the land of pears/sunnyside and workin in Med Center/downtown is going to be a good more expensive.

 

I say all that just to mention that we're about to have a massive highway improvement project finish up by end of the year (and dont forget the beltway 8 expansion in that area too). There is a loooot of land just south of 610 and north of the belt in that area, so we can see if all that finally gets infilled or not with this massive expansion down south. Potentially a perfect test case.

 

variable tolls on specific lanes of traffic is not what I'd call congestion pricing, but it's a start.

 

when the lanes are moving really fast I'd call them the "f*** you I'm better than you lanes" and when they are moving as slow as the main lanes, I'd call them the "idiot tax lanes". the only problem is that you never know when it's going to be which of the two, so maybe we can call them "gambling is legal in Texas lanes".

 

and please, if you must, it is the "and of pearls" not "land of pears".

 

isn't a lot of the land between 610 and bw8 not really suitable for human consumption?

Edited September 10, 2019 by samagon

[Houston19514]

More lies from Mr Speck:

 

He tells us that "Houston has more freeway miles per capita than every large city except Kansas City and St. Louis". I'm sure he's referring to the Federal Highway Administration statistics, which indeed had Houston at No. 3, back in 2007!

 

Using current numbers (would it be too much to ask the self-appointed expert to use current numbers?), among urbanized areas with more than 1 Million population, Houston's freeway lane miles per capita ranks Number 4 . . . IN TEXAS (there are only 4 such urbanized areas in Texas).  Houston ranks Number 19 among the 41 US urbanized areas with more than 1 Million population.  https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/hm72.cfm

 

Edited September 10, 2019 by Houston19514