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Guest danax
Two points:

Second, I would imagine that $400 a square foot condos constitute a pretty slim market.  How can anyone buy such a place with a realistic view of earning substantial appreciation upon resale?  Or...more importantly...how can people buy these places thinking there will even be a market for them upon resale???

Check similar projects in other large cities around the country, these are cheap. This is prime land that "they ain't makin no more" so appreciation shouldn't be a big deal over time unless the economy cycles down quite a bit.

30 stories is huge! With Orion, the 7 story racket club proposed across the street, the one questionable one proposed at Alabama & Dunlavy and probably more that I don't know about, it looks like a high/mid rise residential with upscale retail district is being born.

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finally that damned page parkes building will be gone...ive been in it many a times and its just as bland on the inside.  i hadnt heard of this until now so that is somewhat of a surprise...but i hope the renderings come out soon

Well the rendering has been around for quite some time.

The newest one is here http://www.houstonarchitecture.info/haif/i...?showtopic=2244

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http://www.model-max.com/agencies/pageparkes_building.jpg

heres some pic i found on google of it...the interior is very "concrete" literally...its like they started to renovate but then just stopped...i guess thats appealing to some but its just too cold and boring for my taste. kirby condos should be a nice addition to the area...based on the current rendering

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Check similar projects in other large cities around the country, these are cheap. This is prime land that "they ain't makin no more" so appreciation shouldn't be a big deal over time unless the economy cycles down quite a bit.

Even if this project is cheap relative to other projects around the country (a premise I don't totally agree with), that hardly means this project is a good value or investment. The market for high end condos is a limited one in all but a very few U.S. markets---Miami, NYC, Vegas, possibly Atlanta, and so on. Clearly, Houston isn't like any of these cities.

In any event, I'm waiting for the housing bubble to burst....maybe once that happens prices will return to reasonable levels.

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The housing bubble (if it exists) shows no sign of bursting. Typically a housing bubble will pop if inflation goes unchecked or the economy tumbles. The economy has been on an upswing since 9-11 and inflation has been controled by Greenspan. I believe some markets may get hit because of exhorbitant prices, but the houston market (even the luxury condo and townhome market) has not risen as much as several other markets.

My fear is the people who gotten those ridiculus interest only loans and don't know what they are in for. Unless you are going to resale for much higher before the real payment hits you, you'll get screwed. The fear is that people who don't forclose may completely curb there spending to pay for the house. Forclosures and reduced spending are bad for our economy.

There is no glut of houses in the Houston Market. Developers are quick to addapt since their inventories are quite low.

I think these highrises we able to sustain themselves in Houston. Remember, they are building these things left and right like in Miami and soon to be Las Vegas.

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Larry Kudlow Article

Here's another article saying the opposite. I know he's a conservative economist. I find articles that go both direction all the time. And see the TV commentators on financial shows go both way also. And they all have there facts to back it up.

Guess we won't know unless it really happens.

Predicting these things are not always easy. You see them building, but you don't know when they'll pop if they do. Remembe the stock market in the 90s. Leading up to the burst, know one new it would happen. The people who diversified were ok, the tech heavy people were hit.

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I posted a link on this several weeks ago. It was a ranking of housing price increases for the top 50 markets, as well as which cities were financing the most with interest only loans.

San Diego led in interest only loans at around 60% of all new mortgages. Numerous Cali cities were in the top 50. Houston was near the bottom at around 7% of all new mortgages. Additionally, Houston's housing price increase was near dead last, at around 5% last year. This may not sound good for those trying to flip their houses (which does not help a neighborhood whatsoever), but is great for those who plan to stick around and don't want property taxes to skyrocket.

Houston is in little danger of a housing collapse caused by either no interest loans, or white-hot housing markets. It is merely healthy.

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KJB434:

So which one is it?

First you say "The housing bubble (if it exists) shows no sign of bursting."

Then you write:

Predicting these things are not always easy.  You see them building, but you don't know when they'll pop if they do.  Remembe the stock market in the 90s.  Leading up to the burst, know one new it would happen.  The people who diversified were ok, the tech heavy people were hit.

Sounds like you are trying to be on both sides of the, ahem, curve here...

And, if I may ask, exactly how does one diversify in regard to their personal home? Have two homes in two different locales?

Regardless, even if Houston's market isn't as hot or overvalued as that in other cities, when the housing market begins to falter (here and/or elsewhere), our market will feel the effect from other markets' collapse, and ultimately, prices overall in all markets will begin to fall. After all, no market exists in geographic isolation...

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Guest danax

Some saw the stock market collapse coming. Many talked about the bubble just like now. The "smart money" saw the classic signs, overpriced stocks and mostly, the bottom of the barrel "investors" buying. When baggers in grocery stores and prison guards start to discuss their portfolios, that's a sure sign that the last buyers have been sucked into the market, meaning, there will soon be no one left to buy and then the top is formed and the only way to go is down.

I'm no expert and the housing market is different than the stock markets but we have some similarities. A lot of the new buyers are first-timers with bad credit. That seems to be where a lot of the mortgages are coming from now. The loan programs have gone in the direction of attracting these people. Interest only and 40 year loans are becoming more and more common. So, you've got people with no solid track record of financial responsibility getting into houses with no equity and little chance of building any. Also, most of the bad credit buyers get ARM programs, usually 2/28 or 3/27, meaning, in 2 or 3 years if 1) rates go up and 2) prices go down or even stand still, these folks won't be able to refinance and will have to either ride the ARM roller coaster with payments going up every 6 months or just bail out and foreclose if they can't handle the increase.

I'm not predicting a doomsday scene but the indicators are there. If it happens, we should be ok compared to CA (bad).

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Seems right on to me. With 30% of mortgages nationwide interest only or short-term arms, there are a lot of peope in homes they can't afford.

I'm not sure this will affect the high-rise market, however, as this seems to be a pretty nascent market, at least in Houston. I don't think anyone can say how a RE bubble would affect these investors.

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  • 4 weeks later...

They have added a bit to their web site. It sounds more and more like the Azure in Dallas everyday...

Unrivaled design proffers an unparalleled lifestyle at 2727 Kirby. There is no need for upgrades as each exclusive residence and private-entry estate presents the finest features and finishes available; each is a masterpiece of design, elegance and luxury. Features such as large, private terraces, soaring ceilings, imported stone flooring and European cabinetry are standard. At 2727, you are embraced, swathed and surrounded in superlative style and unmatched service. Your home is the archetype of elegance and excellence in Houston.

Exclusive Residences and Private-Access Estates

Interiors

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I just looked at the site and the night rendering with the fireworks and downtown in the background looks really good.

Does anyone know how many have been presold?

I would bet zero. I filled out the contact info a few weeks ago and have yet to hear anything. I don't think they even have a sales office yet.

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I would bet zero.  I filled out the contact info a few weeks ago and have yet to hear anything.  I don't think they even have a sales office yet.

Hmm that is kind of surprising considering it has been proposed for over a year I believe. Maybe they haven't started yet considering they changed the design and I believe made it taller (I think it was originally 24 stories, now around 30).

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How can they offer gas cooktops in the kitchen?

Every condo I've looked at has electric cooktops and when I ask way, I'm always told that gas cooktops aren't allowed in multistory developments under the code requirements.

I think you've been lied to. I'm pretty sure I've seen some gas cooktops in highrise buildings in Houston. The Mercer advertises gas cooktops in their units.

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You can definitely have gas cook tops in a high rise development. However, it increases the insurance costs and most developers only care about the bottom line.

I am fairly certain that the Orion will have gas cooktops. They certainly are running gas lines to fuel the summer kitchens.

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The site for the 2727 Kirby Condo tower has been updated with floor plans. Of course they are going to make you register to see them.

The pool for the building is planned to be above the level of the trees in the area. This would give you astonisthing views of Downtown and the TMC.

2727 Kirby

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  • 2 weeks later...
How can they offer gas cooktops in the kitchen?

Every condo I've looked at has electric cooktops and when I ask way, I'm always told that gas cooktops aren't allowed in multistory developments under the code requirements.

What makes this project different is the developer. This guy is a solid guy, life-long Houstonian and wealthy enough to actually pull it off. Our community needs more like this guy rather than carpet-baggers trying to siphon off cash and move on.

It does look and sound like Azure. I toured their sales office (Azure's) recently and WOW did they spend some cash on that place. Good news for Texas, the bar is being raised and everyone will have to follow suit to keep up!

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Not really. This one does not have a big W stamped on its forehead :P In basic form, with the weird 'crown" thingy, perhaps. Overall, no.

Plus, this one uses much more steel. To tell you the truth, I'm not too impressed with the design of the W at all.

Victory.jpg

kirby-condo.jpg

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Not really.  This one does not have a big W stamped on its forehead :P  In basic form, with the weird 'crown" thingy, perhaps.  Overall, no.

Plus, this one uses much more steel.  To tell you the truth, I'm not too impressed with the design of the W at all.

Victory.jpg

kirby-condo.jpg

The rendering that you posted of the W Dallas is an old rendering W Dallas will have 31 floors and also has a 15 floor tower attached to the side of it as well to mimic the main tower. The design was somewhat modified to make it bigger. ;)

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  • 1 month later...
I would prefer that they renovate the low-rise modernist building that already occupies this tract and raze the old hard rock for amenities.

That said, it is certainly one of the nicer designs of the current high-rise building boom. Still begs the question: Who the heck is buying all of these $$$ condos?

agreed. i am really irritated that this building is going to be demolished. i've always liked it.

was going to start a new topic but alas, it's mentioned here back in may, so i'll save the rant.

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  • 1 month later...

I know Atlas' proposed project has been discussed in previous threads, but attending the grand opening party for 2727 Kirby mandates that I bring it up again.

First, Kudos to his team. They have assembled a first class sales center. Top shelf on everything.

Here's where the air goes out of the balloon: They are expecting, yet needing, to get $400-$500 per square foot to turn a profit.

Do I hear the ghosts of Orion or Redstone rolling over in their collective graves???

Edited by The New Juniper
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Did they tell you that? Are you basing that on their list prices?

What are their prices? I can't find any on their website.

While there certainly have been condos sold in that price range (400-500 per square foot) and above, I would think it would be quite a challenge to sell out an entire building averaging in that price range.

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  • The title was changed to 2727 Kirby

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