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Houston19514

Downtown Apartment Market

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I've been posting apartment market information in the Sky House Main thread, because it originally grew out of a conversation there. In order to make them more available, I wanted to start a separate thread.  Here goes.

 

As of 2nd quarter, 2016, downtown had a 56.2% occupancy rate.  207 new units were delivered during the second quarter '16.  Net absorption was 142 units.  FWIW, downtown had, by far, the lowest occupancy of all the submarkets in the Houston metro.  The metro-wide occupancy rate was 89.7%   I think the downtown submarket has a great future, but there was little doubt there would be a glut of apartments in the short term.

 

The "Central Houston" market (downtown, Montrose/Museum/Midtown, Heights/Wash Ave., HIghland Village/Upper Kirby/West U, and Med Center/Braes Bayou) had a 78.4% occupancy rate.  1,404 new units delivered during the quarter, with 732 units net absorption.

 

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3rd Quarter 2016:

 

Downtown had a good third quarter.

Occupancy rate climbed from 56.2% to 58.4%, with 224 unit net absorption, up from 142 units absorbed in the second quarter. 338 new units were delivered in 3rd quarter.

 

The area CBRE calls "Central" Houston had net absorption of 1,170 units in 3rd quarter!  https://researchgateway.cbre.com/Layouts/GKCSearch/DownloadHelper.ashx

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As of 4th quarter, 2016, downtown had a 60.3% occupancy rate.  611 new units were delivered during the fourth quarter.  Net absorption was 216 units.  The metro-wide occupancy rate is 88.5%  

 

The "Central Houston" market (downtown, Montrose/Museum/Midtown, Heights/Wash Ave., HIghland Village/Upper Kirby/West U, and Med Center/Braes Bayou) had a 79.1% occupancy rate.  2,222 new units delivered during the quarter, with 269 units net absorption.

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As of 1st quarter, 2017, downtown residential had a 58.5% occupancy rate.  286 new units were delivered during the first quarter.  Net absorption was 279 units.  The metro-wide occupancy rate was 88.3%  Downtown seems to be maintaining a pretty decent pace of absorption.

 

The "Central Houston" market (downtown, Montrose/Museum/Midtown, Heights/Wash Ave., HIghland Village/Upper Kirby/West U, and Med Center/Braes Bayou) had a 78.3% occupancy rate.  2,120 new units delivered during the quarter, with 1,247 units net absorption.

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As of 2nd quarter, 2017, downtown residential had a 63.2% occupancy rate (up from 58.5% in the 1st quarter).  Net absorption was 267 units , while 242 new units were delivered.  Net absorption for the year to date was 546 units.  Downtown is maintaining a good steady pace of absorption.  (Assuming 1.4 people per occupied apartment, downtown is adding a little more than 125 people per month.)

 

The metro-wide occupancy rate is 88.9% 

 

The "Central Houston" market (downtown, Montrose/Museum/Midtown, Heights/Wash Ave., HIghland Village/Upper Kirby/West U, and Med Center/Braes Bayou) had an 81% occupancy rate (up from 78.3% in the first quarter.  1,563 new units delivered during the quarter, with 1,676 units net absorption.  Net absorption year to date:  2,923.  Using the same apartment residency assumption as above, Central Houston is adding about 682 people per month, just in rental residential.

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As of 3rd quarter, 2017, downtown residential had a 62.3% occupancy rate.  A net 266 units were absorbed, while 274 new units were delivered.  Net absorption for the year to date was 812 units.  Downtown is maintaining a good steady pace of absorption.  (Assuming 1.4 people per occupied apartment, downtown is adding a little more than 125 people per month.)

 

The metro-wide occupancy rate is 88.3% 

 

The "Central Houston" market (downtown, Montrose/Museum/Midtown, Heights/Wash Ave., HIghland Village/Upper Kirby/West U, and Med Center/Braes Bayou) had an 82.6% occupancy rate (up from 78.3% in the first quarter).  555  new units delivered during the quarter, with 1,318 units net absorption.  Net absorption year to date: 4,241.  Using the same apartment residency assumption as above, Central Houston is adding about 660 people per month, just in rental residential.

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As of 4th quarter, 2017, downtown residential had a 67.1% occupancy rate.  A net 281 units were absorbed (up from 266 absorbed in the 3rd Q), while 886 new units were delivered.  Net absorption for the year was 1,093 units.  Downtown is maintaining a good steady pace of absorption.  (Assuming 1.4 people per occupied apartment, downtown continues to add more than 125 people per month.)

 

The metro-wide occupancy rate is 88.6% 

 

The "Central Houston" market (downtown, Montrose/Museum/Midtown, Heights/Wash Ave., HIghland Village/Upper Kirby/West U, and Med Center/Braes Bayou) had an 85.4% occupancy rate (up from 78.3% in the first quarter 2017).  1,355 new units delivered during the quarter, with 1,788 units net absorption.  Net absorption year to date: 6,029.  Using the same apartment residency assumption as above, during the 4th quarter, Central Houston added more than 830 people per month, just in rental residential. Averaged over the year as a whole, we added more than 700 people per month in Central Houston.

Edited by Houston19514
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1st Quarter, 2018:

A net 205 units were absorbed in the CBD, while zero new units were delivered.  While it slowed a bit in the 1st Q, Downtown is still maintaining a good pace of absorption.  (Assuming 1.4 people per occupied apartment, downtown continues to add almost 100 people per month.)

 

The "Central Houston" market (downtown, Montrose/Museum/Midtown, Heights/Wash Ave., Highland Village/Upper Kirby/West U, and Med Center/Braes Bayou) delivered 770 new units during the quarter, with 626 units net absorption. 

Edited by Houston19514
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13 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

1st Quarter, 2018:

A net 205 units were absorbed in the CBD, while zero new units were delivered.  While it slowed a bit in the 1st Q, Downtown is still maintaining a good pace of absorption.  (Assuming 1.4 people per occupied apartment, downtown continues to add almost 100 people per month.)

 

The "Central Houston" market (downtown, Montrose/Museum/Midtown, Heights/Wash Ave., Highland Village/Upper Kirby/West U, and Med Center/Braes Bayou) delivered 770 new units during the quarter, with 626 units net absorption. 

 

Anyone have average rent, current occupancy, number of units currently and number of units under construction?

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43 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

1st Quarter, 2018:

A net 205 units were absorbed in the CBD, while zero new units were delivered.  While it slowed a bit in the 1st Q, Downtown is still maintaining a good pace of absorption.  (Assuming 1.4 people per occupied apartment, downtown continues to add almost 100 people per month.)

 

The "Central Houston" market (downtown, Montrose/Museum/Midtown, Heights/Wash Ave., Highland Village/Upper Kirby/West U, and Med Center/Braes Bayou) delivered 770 new units during the quarter, with 626 units net absorption. 

 

Do you have the occupancy rates?

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1 hour ago, downtownian said:

 

Anyone have average rent, current occupancy, number of units currently and number of units under construction?

 

According to CBRE, the average rent downtown is $2.03/ square foot/month.

 

They give a 1st quarter occupancy rate of 62.3% but I find CBRE's occupancy rates to be kind of squirrely. They show 205 units absorbed in the quarter, zero units added to the market in the quarter, but the occupancy rate dropping compared to 4th quarter 2017.  That is a mathematical impossibility (and I've seen the same thing in CBRE reports for other markets).

 

There are some problems with CBRE's numbers:  According to CBRE, we stand at 5,951 units downtown; 271 units currently under construction; and 1,529 units proposed. Catalyst, with 359 units, either delivered in the 1st quarter, or was under construction in the 1st quarter. CBRE's report allows for neither. (The 271 they show under construction are Camden's.)

Edited by Houston19514
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On 5/2/2018 at 3:23 PM, Houston19514 said:

 

According to CBRE, the average rent downtown is $2.03/ square foot/month.

 

They give a 1st quarter occupancy rate of 62.3% but I find CBRE's occupancy rates to be kind of squirrely. They show 205 units absorbed in the quarter, zero units added to the market in the quarter, but the occupancy rate dropping compared to 4th quarter 2017.  That is a mathematical impossibility (and I've seen the same thing in CBRE reports for other markets).

 

There are some problems with CBRE's numbers:  According to CBRE, we stand at 5,951 units downtown; 271 units currently under construction; and 1,529 units proposed. Catalyst, with 359 units, either delivered in the 1st quarter, or was under construction in the 1st quarter. CBRE's report allows for neither. (The 271 they show under construction are Camden's.)

 

Good thread, I appreciate these updates. Wonder if they went to a tighter boundary for the downtown submarket? That could explain lower occupancy and fewer units absorbed.

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On 5/2/2018 at 3:23 PM, Houston19514 said:

The 271 they show under construction are Camden's.

 

Would/should their figure include Marlowe? (Meaning does CBRE only focus on rental market or is that another flaw in the figures?)

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14 hours ago, kbates2 said:

 

Would/should their figure include Marlowe? (Meaning does CBRE only focus on rental market or is that another flaw in the figures?)

 

I would think their purpose is to focus on the rental market and that they would not include Marlowe.

 

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Anecdotally, there's dogs everywhere

 

So downtown has 8,000 people. At what point is that enough for an HEB?

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downtown Grocery will go where the current municipal courts are now... That is my bet.

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1 hour ago, Avossos said:

downtown Grocery will go where the current municipal courts are now... That is my bet.

I am all for razing 1400 Lubbock to the ground (along with the adjoining police station, and hell, the downtown aqaurium too). But, I think it's a little too off the beaten path for a grocery store. 

Edited by Vy65

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2 hours ago, Vy65 said:

I am all for razing 1400 Lubbock to the ground (along with the adjoining police station, and hell, the downtown aqaurium too). But, I think it's a little too off the beaten path for a grocery store. 

 

Some company like Midway will buy the land in 5 years, raze the entire property (not the church) and create a very urban enviroment with access to Houston Avenue, Washington Ave, Memorial Drive and Buffalo Bayou. It's current configuration is horrible, but it can be very well connected to major arteries. 

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22 hours ago, Vy65 said:

I am all for razing 1400 Lubbock to the ground (along with the adjoining police station, and hell, the downtown aqaurium too). But, I think it's a little too off the beaten path for a grocery store. 

 

I think if there's a big grocery store there (think large HEB or Kroger) than it will pull people in.

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I'd rather see a mixed use development with a grocery store on the far north end of downtown (where that chase drive thru is, for example). 

 

You raze down the municipal courts and put a massive development there. The views of downtown would be pretty great. 

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Has a new site for the municipal courts been selected yet?

I'm impatient and want a HEB near me sooner :P

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29 minutes ago, Naviguessor said:

Washington and Heights will cover this side of downtown/Sixth Ward for HEB. 

 

Not really, people live in an urban environment with the hopes of avoiding their cars.  

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Kbates. I understand and agree. Really responding to the the notion that HEB could build on at the city's site at Lubbock. Another grocer may. 

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On 5/7/2018 at 9:39 AM, cspwal said:

Anecdotally, there's dogs everywhere

 

So downtown has 8,000 people. At what point is that enough for an HEB?

 

I know nothing about grocery store economics but . . . 

 

take 8k people

 

multiply by some market share

 

multiply by some number of visits per week

 

multiply by some spending per trip

 

8,000 x 75% x 2 x $50

 

$600,000 potential revenue per week?

 

plus what from downtown office workers?

 

Doesn't seem like a lot of revenue potential at this point, even with what are probably very optimistic assumptions, but I have no idea how much a typical store brings in per week.

 

And Google helps here:

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/197905/2010-sales-per-store-of-supermarkets-in-the-us/

 

$65.9m on average for HEB, the highest in the U.S.

 

The numbers above work out to $31.2 million, and, as stated above, I bet they're highly optimistic.

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Something also worth considering above, from an economic point of view that $31.2 million would not be incremental sales for HEB because they'd get a share of the 8,000 residents as it is driving to the Washington Avenue and Montrose store.  It's made even more difficult because it's not like the downtown residential population is concentrated such that a store could be placed within comfortable walking distance of even 75% of the 8,000 people.

 

Maybe some concept like Randall's Midtown would work.  Looking at those statistics one kind of understands how Phoenicia works.

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I recently was in downtown LA and it reminded me a lot of Houston. While their resident population is significantly higher (27K i googled) than Houston's (I googled a little over 10K according to Wikipedia), they have a downtown population of 4,770/sq. mile vs. downtown Houston which has a population of 5,500/sq. mile (all on Wikipedia). Granted their downtown area is about 5 sq. miles and our is 2 sq. miles, and if we really wanted to compare apples to apples we'd have to include Midtown (but that doesn't fit my argument ha). However, i digress and will stick to actual conceptions of "downtown".

 

I stayed at LA Live and they had a Whole Foods and a Ralph's to serve their downtown population within a very short walking distance. Their Whole Foods was pretty standard (what I'd expect the new Midtown one to be like... similar in size to the Montrose WF). But the Ralphs was very focused on hot bars, prepared meals, and such... most likely for the 9-5 downtown workers. However it was a great resource to shop of normal groceries (bread, eggs, pasta, butter, produce...etc) for the downtown dweller... limited but still had plenty. 

 

As a downtown dweller, nobody is asking for a suburban style HEB or Kroger with a massive space catering to every need. I tried shopping at Phoenicia but it was too speciality and the prices for everyday items were outrageous. We can surely have the next apartment developer pull a deal with a major grocer to build something on their main floor (potentially with space for additional retail). 

 

Outside of that, we desperately need a CityTarget. The Target at Sawyer Heights is just too busy and runs out of everything fast. Target would be smart to build a CityTarget downtown so us residents can buy what we need. If not, I guess Amazon Prime Now will continue to get my money for everyday items.  

 

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If I lived downtown I would not need a supervisor anything. 

 

We are used to the suburban style Walmarts do we are used to buying 48 rolls of toilet paper a bucket of laundry soap, 4 chickens, a pig, half a cow, a Bail of peanut butter, 4 gallons of milk, a barrel of ice cream. 

 

In a more urban lifestyle more frequent visits to the store would be easier so there would be no need to buy in bulk so the stores would not need to stock a lot of the bigger items. 

 

A smaller but well stocked store is what is needed. It's a shame that mom and pop stores can no longer survive in today's markets

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Hell, a couple of 7-11s would be a start, but for whatever reason Houston isn't a convenience store city.

Edited by mattyt36
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1 hour ago, mattyt36 said:

Hell, a couple of 7-11s would be a start, but for whatever reason Houston isn't a convenience store city.

Unless it's attached to a gas station

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1 minute ago, cspwal said:

Unless it's attached to a gas station

 

Yes, either a gas station or a horrible CVS!

 

We're definitely an outlier on this.

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Now we have a horrible CVS and a mediocre CVS

moving up in the world

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On 5/8/2018 at 9:51 PM, ajgallion said:

I recently was in downtown LA and it reminded me a lot of Houston. While their resident population is significantly higher (27K i googled) than Houston's (I googled a little over 10K according to Wikipedia), they have a downtown population of 4,770/sq. mile vs. downtown Houston which has a population of 5,500/sq. mile (all on Wikipedia). Granted their downtown area is about 5 sq. miles and our is 2 sq. miles, and if we really wanted to compare apples to apples we'd have to include Midtown (but that doesn't fit my argument ha). However, i digress and will stick to actual conceptions of "downtown".

 

I stayed at LA Live and they had a Whole Foods and a Ralph's to serve their downtown population within a very short walking distance. Their Whole Foods was pretty standard (what I'd expect the new Midtown one to be like... similar in size to the Montrose WF). But the Ralphs was very focused on hot bars, prepared meals, and such... most likely for the 9-5 downtown workers. However it was a great resource to shop of normal groceries (bread, eggs, pasta, butter, produce...etc) for the downtown dweller... limited but still had plenty. 

 

As a downtown dweller, nobody is asking for a suburban style HEB or Kroger with a massive space catering to every need. I tried shopping at Phoenicia but it was too speciality and the prices for everyday items were outrageous. We can surely have the next apartment developer pull a deal with a major grocer to build something on their main floor (potentially with space for additional retail). 

 

Outside of that, we desperately need a CityTarget. The Target at Sawyer Heights is just too busy and runs out of everything fast. Target would be smart to build a CityTarget downtown so us residents can buy what we need. If not, I guess Amazon Prime Now will continue to get my money for everyday items.  

 

 

Agreed. It's why I decided not to live in downtown. I understand the tunnels take care of a lot for the 9-5 workers, but a major grocer would be a huge boon and if Phoenicia can survive, so  could others.

 

Of course for some reason HEB would rather build another one in Upper Kirby that's already within looking distance of 2 other stores (plus Central Market). *shrug*

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One reason the Sawyer Heights Target is so mobbed is that there are none to the east of it until you get to Atascocita, Pasadena, or Baybrook.  A City Target downtown ought to do just fine.

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It would seem to me that a downtown, urban, Target would have explosive sales.  I just don’t understand why one  isn’t already here.

 

 

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7 hours ago, UtterlyUrban said:

It would seem to me that a downtown, urban, Target would have explosive sales.  I just don’t understand why one  isn’t already here.

 

 

 

I'm sure if Target execs thought they could make good money in a downtown Houston location, there would be one.

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People's faith in the unerring perfection of the market is so bizarre to me. As though unmet needs are always immediately addressed, nothing is ever delayed, and mistakes are never made.

There are lots of possible reasons why there is not Target downtown. It's entirely plausible that the market wouldn't support it, but it's also possible that Target can only open so many stores at a time, and it just hasn't prioritized this market yet. Target only pretty recently began focusing on smaller format City Targets, and I think it's fair to assume that they're starting with apparent "sure thing," more obviously established markets. It's also worth keeping in mind that, even if Target would theoretically be interested in building a small format store downtown (or, I think more likely, in Midtown), they would still need a site and a developer to partner with.

 

Just saying "if it made money than Target, in its infinite wisdom, would will it to be so" is bizarrely nihilistic and unhelpful.

Edited by Texasota
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Inside the loop, things look different. Downtown, for example, has no grocery stores other than Phoenicia, an upscale gourmet food store.

Why is that?

Jaggi said it comes down to availability of land, and in some of these urban areas developers tend to make more use of land by building up.

“So it’s difficult for a one-story user to compete with the user, or the development, that’s going to be eight, nine or even 20 stories,” she said, “because they are building vertically with more rentable square-footage.”

So it might become inevitable for retailers to think in those terms, too, when it comes to urban expansion. Jaggi expects to see more grocery stores taking up part of multi-story buildings, as the urban population keeps growing.

Chains like HEB are already exploring that.

 “Next year, we’ll open up our first two-story store in Bellaire, on Bissonnet and Rice,” Perez said. “And a part of the reason that we’re going to multi-level stores is because it is increasingly difficult to find large pieces of property to build a single-story store.”

https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2017/12/06/254946/houstons-grocery-market-growing-fast-but-not-equally-across-the-region/

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I can see the need for a grocery store downtown. I don’t see a need for Target. Target is the store I would go to if I went to a big box store. I’m not going to Wal-Mart or Costco. I now only go to a store like this about half a dozen times a year. I get almost everything that’s not perishable from Amazon. I don’t care if it’s more expensive, it’s more convenient.  I’m not sure how stores like Target are going to survive much less expand. I have 1-4 packages from Amazon delivered everyday and almost never have to visit a store.

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Judging by the sea of humanity at the Sawyer Heights Target, there are still a lot of people who don't rely on Amazon for their every non perishable need.

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35 minutes ago, mollusk said:

Judging by the sea of humanity at the Sawyer Heights Target, there are still a lot of people who don't rely on Amazon for their every non perishable need.

Sawyer Heights is a bit different, it has a pretty big draw (The Heights, the upper parts of Montrose, Washington Avenue corridor, etc.) but it's also one of only three Target stores in the entire Inner Loop, and the only one that's not less than a mile from 610. Given how dense the Inner Loop is, it's not THAT packed to the gills that a second one, at least in downtown, would be justified. Then again, I mostly go in the evening, but even still...

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20 hours ago, Texasota said:

Just saying "if it made money than Target, in its infinite wisdom, would will it to be so" is bizarrely nihilistic and unhelpful.

 

Truth hurts, but it's still the truth. When Target sees that it can make as much money as it deems necessary, it will likely open a location downtown.

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What is even your point? "Target" is not a person. The actual people at the company responsible for making location decisions make those decisions based on a variety of factors, and downtown is changing pretty rapidly.  

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2nd Quarter, 2018:

A net 502 units were absorbed in the CBD, while 220 new units were delivered.  Absorption accelerated from recent quarters (1st quarter absorption was 205).  (Assuming 1.4 people per occupied apartment, downtown added almost 250 people per month during the 2nd quarter.) Occupancy rate increased to 78.5%.  At that pace of absorption, and including the 271 units that were under construction, we only have about 3 quarters' worth of inventory. Time to start building some more! 

 

The "Central Houston" market (downtown, Montrose/Museum/Midtown, Heights/Wash Ave., Highland Village/Upper Kirby/West U, and Med Center/Braes Bayou) delivered 410 new units during the quarter, with 1,097 units net absorption.

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34 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

2nd Quarter, 2018:

A net 502 units were absorbed in the CBD, while 220 new units were delivered.  Absorption accelerated from recent quarters (1st quarter absorption was 205).  (Assuming 1.4 people per occupied apartment, downtown added almost 250 people per month during the 2nd quarter.) Occupancy rate increased to 78.5%.  At that pace of absorption, and including the 271 units that were under construction, we only have about 3 quarters' worth of inventory. Time to start building some more! 

 

The "Central Houston" market (downtown, Montrose/Museum/Midtown, Heights/Wash Ave., Highland Village/Upper Kirby/West U, and Med Center/Braes Bayou) delivered 410 new units during the quarter, with 1,097 units net absorption.

 

Thanks. 502 in a quarter is crazy!

 

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It will be wonderful to see Downtown cross the 10,000 residents line at some point in the not too distant future.  I read that downtown crossed 8,000 in April.

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