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39 minutes ago, JJxvi said:

What's with this weird idea that this site area would have developed while KBR was there if it was going to be able to develop?  This area WAS developed.  85% of the 150 acres of area were industrial facilities related to KBR.  There is a huge difference in desirability of developing big commercial, office, residential development right next to a vast 150 acre industrial facility vs new development on a recently cleared 150 acre piece of land.  Also the idea that there hasn't been redevelopment in the area already happening is false.  New townhouses have been appearing north of the site for a couple decades and in addition to the KBR site there is another cleared 35 acre industrial site which was purchased by Frank Liu and I imagine he's intending redevelop it...

 

I think the contention is that the surrounding area didn't develop with KBR, therefore, the surrounding area wouldn't develop with Amazon.

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On ‎10‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 3:39 PM, samagon said:

 

Have you ever tried to get a loan from a bank for a restaurant?

 

You go in with your business plan that includes a demographic study that in addition to some suburban housing has 5,000 geographically relevant potential customers and a bank will tell you "we will not give you the $300,000 loan to build out your restaurant concept across the street from this business site".

 

You go in with your business plan that includes a demographic study that in addition to some suburban housing has 50,000 geographically relevant potential customers and a bank will ask "are you sure you only want $300,000 loan to build out your restaurant concept across the street from this business site".

 

That loud thunk you just heard was a Midway exec punching the table after he read this post and realized he would never get financing for East River.

 

 

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7 hours ago, HOUTEX said:

 

Having lived in Dallas most of my life there’s a big time cultural difference in just the way the people act. Doesn’t show up on paper, but there’s a tangible difference. 

 

Don’t get me wrong, the Dallas burbs are a great place to raise kids and it’s a good fit for a Toyota or State Farm, etc. but as a corporate “fit” for the type of company Amazon is, and their employees are, Houston easily wins. This city actually has soul. Dallas is sterile. 

 

Houston does not do a good job presenting itself though, which Dallas excels at. 

 

Even though I have friends there, I've described Dallas a a plastic city full of plastic people for decades. I deliberately chose not to pursue jobs in Dallas over the years, becuase I didn't want to live there.

 

4 hours ago, JJxvi said:

What's with this weird idea that this site area would have developed while KBR was there if it was going to be able to develop?  This area WAS developed.  85% of the 150 acres of area were industrial facilities related to KBR.  There is a huge difference in desirability of developing big commercial, office, residential development right next to a vast 150 acre industrial facility vs new development on a recently cleared 150 acre piece of land.  Also the idea that there hasn't been redevelopment in the area already happening is false.  New townhouses have been appearing north of the site for a couple decades and in addition to the KBR site there is another cleared 35 acre industrial site which was purchased by Frank Liu and I imagine he's intending redevelop it...

 

the KBR site didn't fit KBR's future business plans, especially after the fabrication yard on Greens Bayou was shut down and construction activities were moved mostly overseas to contract yards. Why have a large facility hanging around, sometimes way underused, when you can make as much money managing the overall project and use fab yards owned by someone else?

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Some comments on the points of discussion:

Houston vs. DFW: DFW's big advantage is a much larger information technology and software development job base, which is one of Amazon's top priorities. I work as a software developer, and every time I compare DFW to Houston, I find the DFW has about four times as many job postings in software development. I just checked again and came up with about the same results. I don't know what technology stack Amazon uses, but anyone who knows can do the same exercise of Houston vs. DFW.

Dice search for .Net Developer: Dallas 1403,  Houston 381 (3.7 ratio). Dice search for MVC (a type of programming skill): Dallas 212, Houston 61 (ratio 3.5). Dice search for Java developer: Dallas 1509, Houston 398 (ratio 3.8)

 

DFW has vastly more potential sites for Amazon, whereas Houston appears to have only the KBR/East River site and maybe 800 Bell. Of course, there could be other sites in Houston which have not been publicized. But DFW appears to have many viable options downtown, in the mid-burbs and outer suburbs.

 

Neither DFW nor Houston is going to score high on the image or "coolness" factor as compared to some competitors. The DFW virtues of orderliness, high quality standards, uniformity and better planning appeal to many companies, especially companies with family-oriented workforces (e.g. Toyota, Liberty Mutual, State Farm). But DFW's virtues do result in a mostly sterile environment (as some have noted), which could be a negative for them in terms of Amazon.

 

In terms of incentives, I'm expecting Houston to be lower than DFW, and there will be cities with much richer incentives than DFW, such as the well-publicized $7 billion for Newark. Assuming Amazon picks one winner (not multiple winners for different business units), every city except one is going to lose, which means that even cities with good proposals and rich incentives are going to lose. And I'm expecting Houston's proposal to be in the middle of the pack in terms of competitiveness and probably below average in incentives.

 

About KBR site: Has everyone who promotes or defends this site actually given it a close inspection on the ground, and not just looked at Google maps views? I did a complete inspection including the roads in the interior of the site, and I was totally unimpressed. The east end of site is surrounded by warehouses and industrial properties. These are not quaint old red brick warehouses, but modern unattractive steel structures. The north side is mostly modern housing, not suitable for redevelopment. The neighborhood along Hirsch between the site and the East Freeway is an older, lower-income neighborhood. You get a good view of the bayou from the Hirsch and Jensen bridges, and the bayou waterside is unattractive in my opinion (it is nothing like the bayou west of downtown). Finally, the site is not convenient to the core of downtown, and also not convenient to EaDo since there are only two access points (the two bridges), and the bridges are fairly long. Even if the site were available for free to Amazon, I think it would be a nonstarter. But of course it is not free.

 

About Amazon's priorities: Amazon's wish list is seeking a fantasy land which does not exist anywhere. So they'll need to make some choices about their priorities. I don't think anyone  outside of Amazon's top executives (and maybe only Bezos) knows what is going to drive the decision. So all assumptions about what Amazon really wants is speculative, including widely held views that they want to be in a "cool" city, that they want a transit-oriented city, or that they have a fixed idea of a Seattle-like quality of life. The actual requirement emphasizes the site, incentives and workforce.

 

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58 minutes ago, MaxConcrete said:

About KBR site: Has everyone who promotes or defends this site actually given it a close inspection on the ground, and not just looked at Google maps views? I did a complete inspection including the roads in the interior of the site, and I was totally unimpressed. The east end of site is surrounded by warehouses and industrial properties. These are not quaint old red brick warehouses, but modern unattractive steel structures. The north side is mostly modern housing, not suitable for redevelopment. The neighborhood along Hirsch between the site and the East Freeway is an older, lower-income neighborhood. You get a good view of the bayou from the Hirsch and Jensen bridges, and the bayou waterside is unattractive in my opinion (it is nothing like the bayou west of downtown). Finally, the site is not convenient to the core of downtown, and also not convenient to EaDo since there are only two access points (the two bridges), and the bridges are fairly long. Even if the site were available for free to Amazon, I think it would be a nonstarter. But of course it is not free.

 

 

You're being too kind. The site is a dump. 

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6 hours ago, JJxvi said:

What's with this weird idea that this site area would have developed while KBR was there if it was going to be able to develop?  This area WAS developed.  85% of the 150 acres of area were industrial facilities related to KBR.  There is a huge difference in desirability of developing big commercial, office, residential development right next to a vast 150 acre industrial facility vs new development on a recently cleared 150 acre piece of land.  Also the idea that there hasn't been redevelopment in the area already happening is false.  New townhouses have been appearing north of the site for a couple decades and in addition to the KBR site there is another cleared 35 acre industrial site which was purchased by Frank Liu and I imagine he's intending redevelop it...

Correct. I don't know what KBR or its predecessor companies used the industrial part for but given how well-integrated it was (the railroads to the south were connected via a long-gone bridge, probably dismantled after logistics of street-running on Commerce Street, and integrating with the railroads to the west as well).

 

Some of the first new townhomes (Plaza Del Sol) appeared on Clinton and Sydnor as early as 2002 (just south of Kennedy Place, public housing). Since they were completed in 2004, the townhomes in that part of the Fifth Ward have hextupled. Restaurants will probably follow anyway, and that part of Houston will probably completely change.

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12 hours ago, H-Town Man said:

 

That loud thunk you just heard was a Midway exec punching the table after he read this post and realized he would never get financing for East River.

 

Wait. No, actually it was another Astro falling flat on his ass after swinging and missing another Yankee pitch. Carry on.

 

 

Yeah... the requirements for getting financing for a restaurant (amenity) is a lot different than the requirements for getting financing for the mixed use development Midway wants.... yeah

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13 hours ago, MaxConcrete said:

Some comments on the points of discussion:

Houston vs. DFW: DFW's big advantage is a much larger information technology and software development job base, which is one of Amazon's top priorities. I work as a software developer, and every time I compare DFW to Houston, I find the DFW has about four times as many job postings in software development. I just checked again and came up with about the same results. I don't know what technology stack Amazon uses, but anyone who knows can do the same exercise of Houston vs. DFW.

Dice search for .Net Developer: Dallas 1403,  Houston 381 (3.7 ratio). Dice search for MVC (a type of programming skill): Dallas 212, Houston 61 (ratio 3.5). Dice search for Java developer: Dallas 1509, Houston 398 (ratio 3.8)

 

DFW has vastly more potential sites for Amazon, whereas Houston appears to have only the KBR/East River site and maybe 800 Bell. Of course, there could be other sites in Houston which have not been publicized. But DFW appears to have many viable options downtown, in the mid-burbs and outer suburbs.

 

Neither DFW nor Houston is going to score high on the image or "coolness" factor as compared to some competitors. The DFW virtues of orderliness, high quality standards, uniformity and better planning appeal to many companies, especially companies with family-oriented workforces (e.g. Toyota, Liberty Mutual, State Farm). But DFW's virtues do result in a mostly sterile environment (as some have noted), which could be a negative for them in terms of Amazon.

 

In terms of incentives, I'm expecting Houston to be lower than DFW, and there will be cities with much richer incentives than DFW, such as the well-publicized $7 billion for Newark. Assuming Amazon picks one winner (not multiple winners for different business units), every city except one is going to lose, which means that even cities with good proposals and rich incentives are going to lose. And I'm expecting Houston's proposal to be in the middle of the pack in terms of competitiveness and probably below average in incentives.

 

About KBR site: Has everyone who promotes or defends this site actually given it a close inspection on the ground, and not just looked at Google maps views? I did a complete inspection including the roads in the interior of the site, and I was totally unimpressed. The east end of site is surrounded by warehouses and industrial properties. These are not quaint old red brick warehouses, but modern unattractive steel structures. The north side is mostly modern housing, not suitable for redevelopment. The neighborhood along Hirsch between the site and the East Freeway is an older, lower-income neighborhood. You get a good view of the bayou from the Hirsch and Jensen bridges, and the bayou waterside is unattractive in my opinion (it is nothing like the bayou west of downtown). Finally, the site is not convenient to the core of downtown, and also not convenient to EaDo since there are only two access points (the two bridges), and the bridges are fairly long. Even if the site were available for free to Amazon, I think it would be a nonstarter. But of course it is not free.

 

About Amazon's priorities: Amazon's wish list is seeking a fantasy land which does not exist anywhere. So they'll need to make some choices about their priorities. I don't think anyone  outside of Amazon's top executives (and maybe only Bezos) knows what is going to drive the decision. So all assumptions about what Amazon really wants is speculative, including widely held views that they want to be in a "cool" city, that they want a transit-oriented city, or that they have a fixed idea of a Seattle-like quality of life. The actual requirement emphasizes the site, incentives and workforce.

Man, talk about a reality check ...

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14 hours ago, MaxConcrete said:

Some comments on the points of discussion:

Houston vs. DFW: DFW's big advantage is a much larger information technology and software development job base, which is one of Amazon's top priorities. I work as a software developer, and every time I compare DFW to Houston, I find the DFW has about four times as many job postings in software development. I just checked again and came up with about the same results. I don't know what technology stack Amazon uses, but anyone who knows can do the same exercise of Houston vs. DFW.

Dice search for .Net Developer: Dallas 1403,  Houston 381 (3.7 ratio). Dice search for MVC (a type of programming skill): Dallas 212, Houston 61 (ratio 3.5). Dice search for Java developer: Dallas 1509, Houston 398 (ratio 3.8)

 

 

Amazon is interested in available workforce, or more precisely, a city/site to which a desirable workforce is willing to move. To my knowledge, Houston has never had a problem attracting people to move here for good jobs.  Except to the extent it stands in as a proxy for available workforce, I doubt they care much at all about how many other jobs there are for their desired workforce.  It could even be a negative.

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13 hours ago, MaxConcrete said:

Some comments on the points of discussion:

 

DFW has vastly more potential sites for Amazon, whereas Houston appears to have only the KBR/East River site and maybe 800 Bell. Of course, there could be other sites in Houston which have not been publicized. But DFW appears to have many viable options downtown, in the mid-burbs and outer suburbs.

 

 

One excellent site is better than 20 mediocre sites.  It's not as if this is a lottery where more entries increases your chances of winning.  I am unaware of a single site being proposed in DFW that meets the base requirement of having 500,000 square feet available on site in 2019.

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Dallas' tech "brain gain" is second only to San Francisco, for every tech degree generated in the area there are over twice as many tech jobs being created at the same time, the region added 40,310 tech jobs over last 5 years while adding 17,750 tech degrees, a "brain gain" of 22,560, Dallas is adding tech degrees faster than any other region in the nation, growing 61% between 2011 to 2015, in jobs Dallas is 5th largest tech labor pool in the nation with a total tech labor force of 161,150; tech clients and tech graduates are both choosing to stay in Dallas, 08-01-17:
 
 
Additionally, CNN Tech mentions about Dallas in their short list of the 8 leading cities for HQ2:

"Dallas/Fort Worth earned a spot on the real estate group CBRE's rankings of the geographic locations with the most tech talent this year. While many cities are suffering a brain drain -- when locally educated workers move elsewhere -- Dallas was bested only by San Francisco in terms of attracting tech talent. Its cost of living is also significantly lower than other tech hotspots, such as San Francisco and New York."
 
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19 hours ago, MaxConcrete said:

Some comments on the points of discussion:

 

About KBR site: Has everyone who promotes or defends this site actually given it a close inspection on the ground, and not just looked at Google maps views? I did a complete inspection including the roads in the interior of the site, and I was totally unimpressed. The east end of site is surrounded by warehouses and industrial properties. These are not quaint old red brick warehouses, but modern unattractive steel structures. The north side is mostly modern housing, not suitable for redevelopment. The neighborhood along Hirsch between the site and the East Freeway is an older, lower-income neighborhood. You get a good view of the bayou from the Hirsch and Jensen bridges, and the bayou waterside is unattractive in my opinion (it is nothing like the bayou west of downtown). Finally, the site is not convenient to the core of downtown, and also not convenient to EaDo since there are only two access points (the two bridges), and the bridges are fairly long. Even if the site were available for free to Amazon, I think it would be a nonstarter. But of course it is not free.

 

 

Yes, some of us have seen the site.  We'll have to agree to disagree as to whether it is an irredeemable dump as you seem to think (With respect, Midway Corp knows a lot more about real estate redevelopment than either of us and they seem to think it is quite redeemable and have backed up those thoughts with millions of dollars; I'll go with their opinion).

 

But let's assume arguendo, that the site is a dump.  Given Amazon's history in Seattle, it is hard to see how that would make the site a nonstarter.  In fact, it may be a plus. With a  tiny bit of imagination, it is easy to see Amazon being interested in a large site with sufficient existing office space in a central city location on the cusp of redevelopment.

 

As to the "unattractive" steel warehouses, developers with imagination can do exciting things with so-called unattractive buildings.  Ever seen the Sawyer Yards development?   If not, they are also pretty easy to remove, allowing for redevelopment of the land.

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1 minute ago, Houston19514 said:

 

Yes, some of us have seen the site.  We'll have to agree to disagree as to whether it is an irredeemable dump as you seem to think (With respect, Midway Corp knows a lot more about real estate redevelopment than either of us and they seem to think it is quite redeemable).

 

But let's assume arguendo, that the site is a dump.  Given Amazon's history in Seattle, it is hard to see how that would make the site a nonstarter.  In fact, it may be a plus.

 

I like the part where he says the east end of it is "surrounded by warehouses." Then when you watch the video Houtex linked, you see like a few metal warehouses. I really would like to know what the received wisdom in Houston would have thought of the neighborhood they took over in Seattle, before they remade it.

 

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13 hours ago, MaxConcrete said:

Some comments on the points of discussion:

Houston vs. DFW: DFW's big advantage is a much larger information technology and software development job base, which is one of Amazon's top priorities. I work as a software developer, and every time I compare DFW to Houston, I find the DFW has about four times as many job postings in software development. I just checked again and came up with about the same results. I don't know what technology stack Amazon uses, but anyone who knows can do the same exercise of Houston vs. DFW.

Dice search for .Net Developer: Dallas 1403,  Houston 381 (3.7 ratio). Dice search for MVC (a type of programming skill): Dallas 212, Houston 61 (ratio 3.5). Dice search for Java developer: Dallas 1509, Houston 398 (ratio 3.8)

 

 

The numbers are the most interesting part of your post, and do appear to give Dallas an edge in talent pool, which we already knew, but good to see it quantified. I would be interested in seeing the same comparisons between Houston and Austin, or perhaps three-way, Houston, Austin, and Dallas.

 

I wonder what went into Compaq's decision to move to Houston when they broke away from TI. Whether there was some advantage in getting away from the Dallas environment, where you could still draw talent from around the state but not have TI, Raytheon, etc. right next door. It was 1982, a time when Houston was much more of an oil city than it is now, and was hitting a real estate bust. Maybe the cheap land was attractive?

 

Today it is still HP's largest facility in the U.S., and works well as a back-office to their headquarters in Silicon Valley. Of course the world has passed HP by, but 15 years ago when they were on top of things, this was a dual setup that made sense.

 

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7 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

 

Wow.  That was easily the best Houston promo video I've ever seen (nicely and subtly directed at Amazon)

 

Thanks for posting.

 

 

"And with more than 560,000 square feet of available office space... it provides a location to develop and thrive from Day 1."

 

It was totally directed at Amazon.

 

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19 hours ago, MaxConcrete said:

Some comments on the points of discussion:

Houston vs. DFW: DFW's big advantage is a much larger information technology and software development job base, which is one of Amazon's top priorities. I work as a software developer, and every time I compare DFW to Houston, I find the DFW has about four times as many job postings in software development. I just checked again and came up with about the same results. I don't know what technology stack Amazon uses, but anyone who knows can do the same exercise of Houston vs. DFW.

Dice search for .Net Developer: Dallas 1403,  Houston 381 (3.7 ratio). Dice search for MVC (a type of programming skill): Dallas 212, Houston 61 (ratio 3.5). Dice search for Java developer: Dallas 1509, Houston 398 (ratio 3.8)

 

I can't argue that DFW has a larger SW/IT job base, but Dice searches won't tell the whole story regarding talent pool. I work with tons of SW developers in specialized roles (NASA) that can do each skill you searched for, but not one of their jobs have that in their title or description. All of our Flight SW for ISS is written in C, we have tons of FPGA developers, most ground tools involve Java all developed in-house by NASA/USA/Boeing/Lockheed/Jacobs/etc. I'm sure the same holds for many larger energy and healthcare services as well.

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1 hour ago, skwatra said:

 

I can't argue that DFW has a larger SW/IT job base, but Dice searches won't tell the whole story regarding talent pool. I work with tons of SW developers in specialized roles (NASA) that can do each skill you searched for, but not of their jobs have that in their title or description. All of our Flight SW for ISS is written in C, we have tons of FPGA developers, most ground tools involve Java all developed in-house by NASA/USA/Boeing/Lockheed/Jacobs/etc. I'm sure the same holds for many larger energy and healthcare services as well.

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

 

The city is promoting General Park?  Generation Park has submitted a proposal and they are certainly promoting themselves. How is the city promoting them?

 

From Generation Park's website

I may be wrong, but I read an article earlier today that listed all the proposals by Texas cities, and under Houston, Generation Park  was the only one that appeared. 

 

I may have may misinterpreted it. 

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9 hours ago, H-Town Man said:

 

The numbers are the most interesting part of your post, and do appear to give Dallas an edge in talent pool, which we already knew, but good to see it quantified. I would be interested in seeing the same comparisons between Houston and Austin, or perhaps three-way, Houston, Austin, and Dallas.

 

I wonder what went into Compaq's decision to move to Houston when they broke away from TI. Whether there was some advantage in getting away from the Dallas environment, where you could still draw talent from around the state but not have TI, Raytheon, etc. right next door. It was 1982, a time when Houston was much more of an oil city than it is now, and was hitting a real estate bust. Maybe the cheap land was attractive?

 

Today it is still HP's largest facility in the U.S., and works well as a back-office to their headquarters in Silicon Valley. Of course the world has passed HP by, but 15 years ago when they were on top of things, this was a dual setup that made sense.

 

TI had a major presence in the Houston area at the time, with big plants in Stafford and out 290, so it's entirely possible the Compaq founders were here already.

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22 hours ago, H-Town Man said:

 

"And with more than 560,000 square feet of available office space... it provides a location to develop and thrive from Day 1."

 

It was totally directed at Amazon.

 

 

Another thing I find interesting besides the fact that there is just about exactly the square footage of already built office building at this site as amazon is asking for to start with is the fact that they also want the potential for 8 million square feet total in the future...which is basically the exact number that Midway announced as the potential size of the development there a year ago.

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Amazon has made it a point to innovate. What if for their employees living downtown they offer a taxi service from the docks at Allen's Landing to the KBR site. Talk about alternative transportation! On top of that, guess where that drops you off at?? Along the rail line! An employee could live anywhere along the light rail and just get off on the last stop in DT and then board the water taxi service! 

 

I know this is a pipe dream. But where there is a will there is a way!

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How much of a chance do you all Generation Park has?  Area did not flood, it is  near the airport, along the beltway, and near some fine housing. Cultural amenities are a bit thin.   For whatever it's worth, which isn't much,  I prefer gmac's suggestion or building it in the south east corner of the downtown

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