Can the Boom Continue?

[LTAWACS 152]

Not good. Which building?

[UtterlyUrban 1677]

It is still too soon to know what the impacts will be of $50 oil (assuming it stays here).

[Slick Vik 456]

I've been told journalists have been "encouraged" to paint the picture rosier than it really is by the real estate and commercial real estate market, it's "in their best interests" to do so.

[UtterlyUrban 1677]

.

Edited April 10, 2015 by UtterlyUrban

[UtterlyUrban 1677]

It seems that apartment discounting in some sub-markets has started. Also, more units were delivered in 2014 than absorbed?

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/04/rent-concessions-hit-houston-apartment-market.html?page=all

[samagon 3252]

The most important quote from that article is the last one:

 

Rent concessions likely won't have a major impact on Houston's multifamily market, Epstein said. Apartment rents have skyrocketed so much over the past few years that even with the concessions, rents are still higher than what developers and property managers were expecting three or four years ago, he said.

[The Pragmatist 394]

Here's an interview with Patrick Jankowski from the Greater Houston Partnership:

 

http://www.thestreet.com/video/13118648/low-oil-prices-leads-to-job-cuts-in-houston-more-on-the-way.html

[LTAWACS 152]

What's the jist of the interview?

[UtterlyUrban 1677]

What's the jist of the interview?

1) it's bad.... Numbers are being revised toward the negative

2) it's going to get worse.... We won't know the full extent until the summer.

3) it won't be as bad as the 80's

4) it will be somewhere "in between" the 80's and the Great Recession (he may have misspoken here? Or did I hear it wrong?)

5) we did not over build office space or residential units like we did in the 80's

6) when oil hit $100 people started questioning when it would slide. In the 80's we thought the increases would last forever.

7) the banking system now has interstate banking unlike the 80's .... So, while there are likely bad loans to the old patch, they won't be concentrated in "Texas only" (my words, not his) banks. We have big banks in here now.

I think that was about the gist. Did I miss anything?

[UtterlyUrban 1677]

Separately, according to an article on Swamplot, skyhouse is 45% full and "on track" with their occupancy projections. They have, however, initiated a rent concession program to attract new renters.

[jgriff 738]

Edit: I probably said too much again.

 

The subject of my post was that some of the jobs that are going away in this bust may never come back. I put a little too much detail into it. Suffice it to say that the management of my company is saying that some energy industry jobs that will come back but they will be in China instead of Houston.

Edited May 4, 2015 by jgriff

[Houston19514 4623]

1) it's bad.... Numbers are being revised toward the negative

2) it's going to get worse.... We won't know the full extent until the summer.

3) it won't be as bad as the 80's

4) it will be somewhere "in between" the 80's and the Great Recession (he may have misspoken here? Or did I hear it wrong?)

5) we did not over build office space or residential units like we did in the 80's

6) when oil hit $100 people started questioning when it would slide. In the 80's we thought the increases would last forever.

7) the banking system now has interstate banking unlike the 80's .... So, while there are likely bad loans to the old patch, they won't be concentrated in "Texas only" (my words, not his) banks. We have big banks in here now.

I think that was about the gist. Did I miss anything?

 

He also said that while they expect the energy sector to lose more jobs, they still expect overall employment growth in Houston.

 

And, not only have we not overbuilt housing, housing is still in short supply... only a 2 1/2 month supply on the market.

 

In related news, today's Wall Street Journal has an article about Houston's Housing Market Holding Up.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Houston19514

[toxtethogrady 807]

It may be defying all conventional wisdom, but WTI oil is over $60 a barrel this morning. At this rate, half the E&P companies in town are going to regret all those layoffs they made at the beginning of the year when November rolls around.

[JJVilla 16]

Edit: I probably said too much again.

 

The subject of my post was that some of the jobs that are going away in this bust may never come back. I put a little too much detail into it. Suffice it to say that the management of my company is saying that some energy industry jobs that will come back but they will be in China instead of Houston.

 

Energy jobs going to China - this could cover a wide spectrum under "energy" but I would guess these are commodity type manufacturing focus or did I miss something? I doubt Exxon and Shell are moving upstream jobs to China.

[jgriff 738]

These are high paying engineering jobs. In the $150k to $300k range.

[UtterlyUrban 1677]

These are high paying engineering jobs. In the $150k to $300k range.

It will be interesting to see if this comes to fruition. Teams of engineers can be anywhere given the global scope of many of these energy companies. Has there already been a long term trend in the oil business to offshore engineering? If so, I can see that this "bust" might accelerate that trend.

[Luminare 6042]

It may be defying all conventional wisdom, but WTI oil is over $60 a barrel this morning. At this rate, half the E&P companies in town are going to regret all those layoffs they made at the beginning of the year when November rolls around.

 

 

This is purely the power of hindsight

 

I'm sure if we had this power before many wouldn't have had paid $100 for a boxing fight lol Meanwhile they would then make sure not to do layoffs.

 

They did whatever they thought was right for their company to survive at the time and the thing about layoffs is that if everything is going good again then you bring them back on. Could they have been a little more confident in the future...maybe but remember this was when the prevailing theory was that they sky was failing and that $35 a barrel oil was a certainty.

[jmitch94 2020]

Don't get your hopes up too soon even with prices creeping back up companies are still announcing layoffs as recent as this week. 

[Timoric 1556]

-

 

 

Edited July 8, 2019 by Timoric

[toxtethogrady 807]

They did whatever they thought was right for their company to survive at the time and the thing about layoffs is that if everything is going good again then you bring them back on.

 

Well, if they don't depart from someplace like San Francisco.

[cloud713 4038]

http://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/20150510-americas-oil-boom-sputtering-back-to-life-one-rig-at-a-time.ece

[toxtethogrady 807]

Oh, let's spread the pain around...

 

http://www.dallasnews.com/business/columnists/mitchell-schnurman/20150420-schnurman-how-low-oil-prices-are-squeezing-jobs-in-dallas.ece

 

Bill Gilmer now says Houston will create only 13,000 jobs this year.

[jgriff 738]

Job growth predictions in Houston is revised significantly downward. 

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/05/houston-job-growth-predictions-drop-drastically.html

[Timoric 1556]

-

Edited July 8, 2019 by Timoric

[toxtethogrady 807]

At least one of the apartment complexes underway on Memorial Drive had water up to the second level of the garage.

[Timoric 1556]

-

Edited July 8, 2019 by Timoric

[HoustonIsHome 1626]

Not necessarily Timoric.

The plan for the Riverwalk here is similar to San Antonio's. That is, a glorified pond.

the section through downtown San Antonio is a cement pond. The real river bypasses that part of downtown. After repeated floods the city diverted the river and the channel that was lefts was turned into an attraction.

Houston can create the same thing.

[Timoric 1556]

-

Edited July 9, 2019 by Timoric

[H-Town Man 4990]

Not necessarily Timoric.

The plan for the Riverwalk here is similar to San Antonio's. That is, a glorified pond.

the section through downtown San Antonio is a cement pond. The real river bypasses that part of downtown. After repeated floods the city diverted the river and the channel that was lefts was turned into an attraction.

Houston can create the same thing.

 

This is untrue. The riverwalk portion is the "real river," which runs in an oxbow pattern through downtown. When they built the riverwalk, they dug a canal at the narrow end of the oxbow, allowing the oxbow to be bypassed during flood events. Some of the trees along the riverwalk portion are much older than the bypass channel, as are some of the buildings such as La Mansion Del Rio (originally St. Mary's College).

 

The problem with doing a Houston riverwalk is there is no logical place to create a bypass channel. Also the bayou is larger and more volatile, the soil I think is looser, and the water is brown rather than greenish-charcoal colored. And then there are alligators.

[HoustonIsHome 1626]

What about it is untrue? You basically said what I said.

Fact: the popular part of the River Walk you call the oxbow is a cement pond that can be closed off at both ends.

Fact: the river bypasses this oxbow. Whether it used to be the natural course of the River is irrelevant, fact of the matter is the river walk is a cement pond and not a free flowing water way like buffalo bayou so my point remains, the same can be created in Houston without worrying about flooding because the money parts of the walk will be a controlled area and not a water catchment course.

This is what it looks like when they drain the pond for cleaning:

As you can see it is a concrete whole in the ground that the city fills up with water aka a cement pond like I said

Edited June 18, 2015 by HoustonIsHome

[H-Town Man 4990]

What about it is untrue? You basically said what I said.

Fact: the popular part of the River Walk you call the oxbow is a cement pond that can be closed off at both ends.

Fact: the river bypasses this oxbow. Whether it used to be the natural course of the River is irrelevant, fact of the matter is the river walk is a cement pond and not a free flowing water way like buffalo bayou so my point remains, the same can be created in Houston without worrying about flooding because the money parts of the walk will be a controlled area and not a water catchment course.

This is what it looks like when they drain the pond for cleaning:

As you can see it is a concrete whole in the ground that the city fills up with water aka a cement pond like I said

You don't take being wrong very well. It obviously makes a difference to most people who care about authenticity whether it is the original river or not. And just because there is a bypass channel doesn't make it a "pond," nor does paving the inside. It is a paved section of river with a bypass channel.

[BigFootsSocks 3179]

That first sentence is a beautiful work of passive-aggressive art. Maintaining superiority in opinion while on the offensive is admirable, but damn that's cold.

I'm impressed.

[HoustonIsHome 1626]

You don't take being wrong very well. It obviously makes a difference to most people who care about authenticity whether it is the original river or not. And just because there is a bypass channel doesn't make it a "pond," nor does paving the inside. It is a paved section of river with a bypass channel.

Sorry sir, but you are wrong. It is a pond. No longer the route of the river.it is concrete and water is added and removed. It is died waterever color they want, although they say it is economic friendly dye. Sorry dude, I lived in san antonio. I saw the pond being emptied, i saw it being cleaned, i saw it being refilled. It's a pond, and that is what it is. So tell me what would prevent Houston from building a cement pond off of Buffalo bayou?

[BigFootsSocks 3179]

Sorry sir, but you are wrong. It is a pond. No longer the route of the river.it is concrete and water is added and removed. It is died waterever color they want, although they say it is economic friendly dye. Sorry dude, I lived in san antonio. I saw the pond being emptied, i saw it being cleaned, i saw it being refilled. It's a pond, and that is what it is. So tell me what would prevent Houston from building a cement pond off of Buffalo bayou?

Buffalo Batou serves more as a glorified drainage ditch first for conveying water through our flat city compared to the slightly hilly San Antonio.

Also a lot of money

[Naviguessor 2184]

40 Foot Floodgates.

[Fortune 888]

There are hypothetical plans to create canals off of Buffalo Bayou.

http://issuu.com/buffalobayou/docs/2002masterplan

Check page 15.

[H-Town Man 4990]

Sorry sir, but you are wrong. It is a pond. No longer the route of the river.it is concrete and water is added and removed. It is died waterever color they want, although they say it is economic friendly dye. Sorry dude, I lived in san antonio. I saw the pond being emptied, i saw it being cleaned, i saw it being refilled. It's a pond, and that is what it is. So tell me what would prevent Houston from building a cement pond off of Buffalo bayou?/

 

You lived in San Antonio, but you didn't know until today that the riverwalk is the original river and the canal is artificial. All of which can be learned by taking one riverboat ride.

 

I think what you're missing is authenticity. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what they do to it, pave it, put bubble bath in it, whatever, the fact is that's the river. When Mexico laid siege to the Alamo, that's where the river was. When they built all those buildings, they built them on the river. Those buildings didn't stop being on the river just because a bypass channel was built.

 

You can dig a canal in Houston that will have no functional utility and say "this is our riverwalk," but everyone's just going to laugh, and San Antonio will laugh the hardest. You might as well build a pretty Spanish mission downtown and put some cannons around it and when people say what the hell is this, you can shrug and say, "Sure looks nice, doesn't it?"

 

[HoustonIsHome 1626]

You lived in San Antonio, but you didn't know until today that the riverwalk is the original river and the canal is artificial. All of which can be learned by taking one riverboat ride.

I think what you're missing is authenticity. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what they do to it, pave it, put bubble bath in it, whatever, the fact is that's the river. When Mexico laid siege to the Alamo, that's where the river was. When they built all those buildings, they built them on the river. Those buildings didn't stop being on the river just because a bypass channel was built.

You can dig a canal in Houston that will have no functional utility and say "this is our riverwalk," but everyone's just going to laugh, and San Antonio will laugh the hardest. You might as well build a pretty Spanish mission downtown and put some cannons around it and when people say what the hell is this, you can shrug and say, "Sure looks nice, doesn't it?"

I never said the bend was not the original river sur. You are presuming things. I said it is a pond and that is what it is. You were wrong, you thought the river walk was one continuous free flowing steam. It is not. Get over it.

Since you mentioned the missions let me educate you some more. Some of the missions in San Antonio were relocated to San Antonio from the SE Texas area. The Settlements around Houston were far older than any around SA.

[H-Town Man 4990]

I never said the bend was not the original river sur. You are presuming things. I said it is a pond and that is what it is. You were wrong, you thought the river walk was one continuous free flowing steam. It is not. Get over it.

Since you mentioned the missions let me educate you some more. Some of the missions in San Antonio were relocated to San Antonio from the SE Texas area. The Settlements around Houston were far older than any around SA.

 

It is a free flowing stream with floodgates and a bypass channel. It is a natural oxbow in the San Antonio River. What exactly have I said that you think is wrong?

 

Which settlements in Houston are you referring to? San Antonio has settlements going back to the early 1700's; what does Houston have that is "far older"?

[LarryDierker 3405]

It is a free flowing stream with floodgates and a bypass channel. It is a natural oxbow in the San Antonio River. What exactly have I said that you think is wrong?

 

Which settlements in Houston are you referring to? San Antonio has settlements going back to the early 1700's; what does Houston have that is "far older"?

 

George Herbert Walker Bush?

Dave Ward?

Tal Smith?

[HoustonIsHome 1626]

It is a free flowing stream with floodgates and a bypass channel. It is a natural oxbow in the San Antonio River. What exactly have I said that you think is wrong?

Which settlements in Houston are you referring to? San Antonio has settlements going back to the early 1700's; what does Houston have that is "far older"?

That is where you are wrong. The oxbow is NOT free flowing. That part does not Flow. The free flowing stream runs straight. The oxbow is blocked off at both ends.

[H-Town Man 4990]

That is where you are wrong. The oxbow is NOT free flowing. That part does not Flow. The free flowing stream runs straight. The oxbow is blocked off at both ends.

It is not blocked off as long as the floodgates are open, right? Only blocked if it is flooding.

[Naviguessor 2184]

The water taxis transit the locks normally. Additionally, The river has other gates up by the museum and down by King William which control the level throughout downtown section.

[mollusk 2392]

George Herbert Walker Bush?

Dave Ward?

Tal Smith?

 

/\ /\ /\ Holy Toledo, that's funny.  

 

Speaking of which, in the "far older" category, let's not forget Milo Hamilton. 

[toxtethogrady 807]

The Economy at a Glace came out for June. Takeaway, April 2015 Houston finally showed job losses, see page 5.

 

http://www.houston.org/economy/archives/glance/Glance-June15%20final.pdf

 

The Texas LMCI Showed a bounceback in job creation for May. Net result - payrolls jobs are at a record high of 2.85 million.

[toxtethogrady 807]

This is what it looks like when they drain the pond for cleaning:

 

Damn. It's like Phyllis Diller with her makeup off...

[Triton 11782]

CBRE's Ryan Epstein on the multi-family market. Interesting that it's not what I am mainly hearing... we do see board oversupply in the multi-family market but as Ryan said, we are glad that the "pipeline is turning off." Most people on HAIF won't like to hear this, but we would be better sticking with townhomes, condos... single family, I mean, as we wait and see how the Houston market absorbs this new incoming supply.

 

 

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Panel-Commercial-real-estate-largely-holding-its-6398104.php?t=67837018db&cmpid=twitter-premium

[Houston19514 4623]

CBRE's Ryan Epstein on the multi-family market. Interesting that it's not what I am mainly hearing... we do see board oversupply in the multi-family market but as Ryan said, we are glad that the "pipeline is turning off." Most people on HAIF won't like to hear this, but we would be better sticking with townhomes, condos... single family, I mean, as we wait and see how the Houston market absorbs this new incoming supply.

 

 

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Panel-Commercial-real-estate-largely-holding-its-6398104.php?t=67837018db&cmpid=twitter-premium

 

What is it that you are not mainly hearing? 

[cloud713 4038]

.

Edited July 22, 2015 by cloud713

[Triton 11782]

What is it that you are not mainly hearing? 

Internally, we've discussed oversupply in the Houston market. Ryan, on the other hand, says he doesn't see that.