LTAWACS 148 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Not good. Which building? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
UtterlyUrban 1675 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 It is still too soon to know what the impacts will be of $50 oil (assuming it stays here). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Slick Vik 456 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 I've been told journalists have been "encouraged" to paint the picture rosier than it really is by the real estate and commercial real estate market, it's "in their best interests" to do so. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
UtterlyUrban 1675 Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 (edited) . Edited April 10, 2015 by UtterlyUrban Quote Link to post Share on other sites
UtterlyUrban 1675 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 It seems that apartment discounting in some sub-markets has started. Also, more units were delivered in 2014 than absorbed?http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/04/rent-concessions-hit-houston-apartment-market.html?page=all Quote Link to post Share on other sites
samagon 3250 Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 The most important quote from that article is the last one:Â Rent concessions likely won't have a major impact on Houston's multifamily market, Epstein said. Apartment rents have skyrocketed so much over the past few years that even with the concessions, rents are still higher than what developers and property managers were expecting three or four years ago, he said. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
The Pragmatist 394 Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Here's an interview with Patrick Jankowski from the Greater Houston Partnership:Â http://www.thestreet.com/video/13118648/low-oil-prices-leads-to-job-cuts-in-houston-more-on-the-way.html 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
LTAWACS 148 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 What's the jist of the interview? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
UtterlyUrban 1675 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 What's the jist of the interview?1) it's bad.... Numbers are being revised toward the negative2) it's going to get worse.... We won't know the full extent until the summer.3) it won't be as bad as the 80's4) it will be somewhere "in between" the 80's and the Great Recession (he may have misspoken here? Or did I hear it wrong?)5) we did not over build office space or residential units like we did in the 80's6) when oil hit $100 people started questioning when it would slide. In the 80's we thought the increases would last forever.7) the banking system now has interstate banking unlike the 80's .... So, while there are likely bad loans to the old patch, they won't be concentrated in "Texas only" (my words, not his) banks. We have big banks in here now.I think that was about the gist. Did I miss anything? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
UtterlyUrban 1675 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Separately, according to an article on Swamplot, skyhouse is 45% full and "on track" with their occupancy projections. They have, however, initiated a rent concession program to attract new renters. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jgriff 738 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 (edited) Edit: I probably said too much again. The subject of my post was that some of the jobs that are going away in this bust may never come back. I put a little too much detail into it. Suffice it to say that the management of my company is saying that some energy industry jobs that will come back but they will be in China instead of Houston. Edited May 4, 2015 by jgriff Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Houston19514 4611 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 (edited) 1) it's bad.... Numbers are being revised toward the negative2) it's going to get worse.... We won't know the full extent until the summer.3) it won't be as bad as the 80's4) it will be somewhere "in between" the 80's and the Great Recession (he may have misspoken here? Or did I hear it wrong?)5) we did not over build office space or residential units like we did in the 80's6) when oil hit $100 people started questioning when it would slide. In the 80's we thought the increases would last forever.7) the banking system now has interstate banking unlike the 80's .... So, while there are likely bad loans to the old patch, they won't be concentrated in "Texas only" (my words, not his) banks. We have big banks in here now.I think that was about the gist. Did I miss anything? He also said that while they expect the energy sector to lose more jobs, they still expect overall employment growth in Houston. And, not only have we not overbuilt housing, housing is still in short supply... only a 2 1/2 month supply on the market. In related news, today's Wall Street Journal has an article about Houston's Housing Market Holding Up. Edited May 4, 2015 by Houston19514 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
toxtethogrady 807 Posted May 5, 2015 Author Share Posted May 5, 2015 It may be defying all conventional wisdom, but WTI oil is over $60 a barrel this morning. At this rate, half the E&P companies in town are going to regret all those layoffs they made at the beginning of the year when November rolls around. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JJVilla 16 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Edit: I probably said too much again. The subject of my post was that some of the jobs that are going away in this bust may never come back. I put a little too much detail into it. Suffice it to say that the management of my company is saying that some energy industry jobs that will come back but they will be in China instead of Houston. Energy jobs going to China - this could cover a wide spectrum under "energy" but I would guess these are commodity type manufacturing focus or did I miss something? I doubt Exxon and Shell are moving upstream jobs to China. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jgriff 738 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 These are high paying engineering jobs. In the $150k to $300k range. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
UtterlyUrban 1675 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 These are high paying engineering jobs. In the $150k to $300k range.It will be interesting to see if this comes to fruition. Teams of engineers can be anywhere given the global scope of many of these energy companies. Has there already been a long term trend in the oil business to offshore engineering? If so, I can see that this "bust" might accelerate that trend. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Luminare 6039 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 It may be defying all conventional wisdom, but WTI oil is over $60 a barrel this morning. At this rate, half the E&P companies in town are going to regret all those layoffs they made at the beginning of the year when November rolls around.  This is purely the power of hindsight  I'm sure if we had this power before many wouldn't have had paid $100 for a boxing fight lol Meanwhile they would then make sure not to do layoffs. They did whatever they thought was right for their company to survive at the time and the thing about layoffs is that if everything is going good again then you bring them back on. Could they have been a little more confident in the future...maybe but remember this was when the prevailing theory was that they sky was failing and that $35 a barrel oil was a certainty. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jmitch94 2020 Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Don't get your hopes up too soon even with prices creeping back up companies are still announcing layoffs as recent as this week. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Timoric 1556 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 (edited) - Â Â Edited July 8, 2019 by Timoric Quote Link to post Share on other sites
toxtethogrady 807 Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 They did whatever they thought was right for their company to survive at the time and the thing about layoffs is that if everything is going good again then you bring them back on. Well, if they don't depart from someplace like San Francisco. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
cloud713 4037 Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 http://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/20150510-americas-oil-boom-sputtering-back-to-life-one-rig-at-a-time.ece Quote Link to post Share on other sites
toxtethogrady 807 Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Oh, let's spread the pain around... http://www.dallasnews.com/business/columnists/mitchell-schnurman/20150420-schnurman-how-low-oil-prices-are-squeezing-jobs-in-dallas.ece Bill Gilmer now says Houston will create only 13,000 jobs this year. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jgriff 738 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Job growth predictions in Houston is revised significantly downward.  http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2015/05/houston-job-growth-predictions-drop-drastically.html Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Timoric 1556 Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 (edited) - Edited July 8, 2019 by Timoric Quote Link to post Share on other sites
toxtethogrady 807 Posted May 29, 2015 Author Share Posted May 29, 2015 At least one of the apartment complexes underway on Memorial Drive had water up to the second level of the garage. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Timoric 1556 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 (edited) - Edited July 8, 2019 by Timoric 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
HoustonIsHome 1625 Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Not necessarily Timoric. The plan for the Riverwalk here is similar to San Antonio's. That is, a glorified pond.the section through downtown San Antonio is a cement pond. The real river bypasses that part of downtown. After repeated floods the city diverted the river and the channel that was lefts was turned into an attraction. Houston can create the same thing. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Timoric 1556 Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 (edited) - Edited July 9, 2019 by Timoric 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
H-Town Man 4983 Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Not necessarily Timoric.The plan for the Riverwalk here is similar to San Antonio's. That is, a glorified pond.the section through downtown San Antonio is a cement pond. The real river bypasses that part of downtown. After repeated floods the city diverted the river and the channel that was lefts was turned into an attraction.Houston can create the same thing. This is untrue. The riverwalk portion is the "real river," which runs in an oxbow pattern through downtown. When they built the riverwalk, they dug a canal at the narrow end of the oxbow, allowing the oxbow to be bypassed during flood events. Some of the trees along the riverwalk portion are much older than the bypass channel, as are some of the buildings such as La Mansion Del Rio (originally St. Mary's College). The problem with doing a Houston riverwalk is there is no logical place to create a bypass channel. Also the bayou is larger and more volatile, the soil I think is looser, and the water is brown rather than greenish-charcoal colored. And then there are alligators. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
HoustonIsHome 1625 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 (edited) What about it is untrue? You basically said what I said.Fact: the popular part of the River Walk you call the oxbow is a cement pond that can be closed off at both ends.Fact: the river bypasses this oxbow. Whether it used to be the natural course of the River is irrelevant, fact of the matter is the river walk is a cement pond and not a free flowing water way like buffalo bayou so my point remains, the same can be created in Houston without worrying about flooding because the money parts of the walk will be a controlled area and not a water catchment course.This is what it looks like when they drain the pond for cleaning:As you can see it is a concrete whole in the ground that the city fills up with water aka a cement pond like I said Edited June 18, 2015 by HoustonIsHome 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
H-Town Man 4983 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 What about it is untrue? You basically said what I said.Fact: the popular part of the River Walk you call the oxbow is a cement pond that can be closed off at both ends.Fact: the river bypasses this oxbow. Whether it used to be the natural course of the River is irrelevant, fact of the matter is the river walk is a cement pond and not a free flowing water way like buffalo bayou so my point remains, the same can be created in Houston without worrying about flooding because the money parts of the walk will be a controlled area and not a water catchment course.This is what it looks like when they drain the pond for cleaning:As you can see it is a concrete whole in the ground that the city fills up with water aka a cement pond like I saidYou don't take being wrong very well. It obviously makes a difference to most people who care about authenticity whether it is the original river or not. And just because there is a bypass channel doesn't make it a "pond," nor does paving the inside. It is a paved section of river with a bypass channel. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BigFootsSocks 3177 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 That first sentence is a beautiful work of passive-aggressive art. Maintaining superiority in opinion while on the offensive is admirable, but damn that's cold.I'm impressed. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
HoustonIsHome 1625 Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 You don't take being wrong very well. It obviously makes a difference to most people who care about authenticity whether it is the original river or not. And just because there is a bypass channel doesn't make it a "pond," nor does paving the inside. It is a paved section of river with a bypass channel.Sorry sir, but you are wrong. It is a pond. No longer the route of the river.it is concrete and water is added and removed. It is died waterever color they want, although they say it is economic friendly dye. Sorry dude, I lived in san antonio. I saw the pond being emptied, i saw it being cleaned, i saw it being refilled. It's a pond, and that is what it is. So tell me what would prevent Houston from building a cement pond off of Buffalo bayou? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BigFootsSocks 3177 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Sorry sir, but you are wrong. It is a pond. No longer the route of the river.it is concrete and water is added and removed. It is died waterever color they want, although they say it is economic friendly dye. Sorry dude, I lived in san antonio. I saw the pond being emptied, i saw it being cleaned, i saw it being refilled. It's a pond, and that is what it is. So tell me what would prevent Houston from building a cement pond off of Buffalo bayou?Buffalo Batou serves more as a glorified drainage ditch first for conveying water through our flat city compared to the slightly hilly San Antonio. Also a lot of money Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Naviguessor 2184 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 40 Foot Floodgates. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Fortune 888 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 There are hypothetical plans to create canals off of Buffalo Bayou. http://issuu.com/buffalobayou/docs/2002masterplanCheck page 15. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
H-Town Man 4983 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Sorry sir, but you are wrong. It is a pond. No longer the route of the river.it is concrete and water is added and removed. It is died waterever color they want, although they say it is economic friendly dye. Sorry dude, I lived in san antonio. I saw the pond being emptied, i saw it being cleaned, i saw it being refilled. It's a pond, and that is what it is. So tell me what would prevent Houston from building a cement pond off of Buffalo bayou?/ You lived in San Antonio, but you didn't know until today that the riverwalk is the original river and the canal is artificial. All of which can be learned by taking one riverboat ride. I think what you're missing is authenticity. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what they do to it, pave it, put bubble bath in it, whatever, the fact is that's the river. When Mexico laid siege to the Alamo, that's where the river was. When they built all those buildings, they built them on the river. Those buildings didn't stop being on the river just because a bypass channel was built. You can dig a canal in Houston that will have no functional utility and say "this is our riverwalk," but everyone's just going to laugh, and San Antonio will laugh the hardest. You might as well build a pretty Spanish mission downtown and put some cannons around it and when people say what the hell is this, you can shrug and say, "Sure looks nice, doesn't it?" Quote Link to post Share on other sites
HoustonIsHome 1625 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 You lived in San Antonio, but you didn't know until today that the riverwalk is the original river and the canal is artificial. All of which can be learned by taking one riverboat ride.I think what you're missing is authenticity. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what they do to it, pave it, put bubble bath in it, whatever, the fact is that's the river. When Mexico laid siege to the Alamo, that's where the river was. When they built all those buildings, they built them on the river. Those buildings didn't stop being on the river just because a bypass channel was built.You can dig a canal in Houston that will have no functional utility and say "this is our riverwalk," but everyone's just going to laugh, and San Antonio will laugh the hardest. You might as well build a pretty Spanish mission downtown and put some cannons around it and when people say what the hell is this, you can shrug and say, "Sure looks nice, doesn't it?"I never said the bend was not the original river sur. You are presuming things. I said it is a pond and that is what it is. You were wrong, you thought the river walk was one continuous free flowing steam. It is not. Get over it. Since you mentioned the missions let me educate you some more. Some of the missions in San Antonio were relocated to San Antonio from the SE Texas area. The Settlements around Houston were far older than any around SA. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
H-Town Man 4983 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I never said the bend was not the original river sur. You are presuming things. I said it is a pond and that is what it is. You were wrong, you thought the river walk was one continuous free flowing steam. It is not. Get over it.Since you mentioned the missions let me educate you some more. Some of the missions in San Antonio were relocated to San Antonio from the SE Texas area. The Settlements around Houston were far older than any around SA. It is a free flowing stream with floodgates and a bypass channel. It is a natural oxbow in the San Antonio River. What exactly have I said that you think is wrong? Which settlements in Houston are you referring to? San Antonio has settlements going back to the early 1700's; what does Houston have that is "far older"? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
LarryDierker 3405 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 It is a free flowing stream with floodgates and a bypass channel. It is a natural oxbow in the San Antonio River. What exactly have I said that you think is wrong? Which settlements in Houston are you referring to? San Antonio has settlements going back to the early 1700's; what does Houston have that is "far older"? George Herbert Walker Bush?Dave Ward?Tal Smith? 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
HoustonIsHome 1625 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 It is a free flowing stream with floodgates and a bypass channel. It is a natural oxbow in the San Antonio River. What exactly have I said that you think is wrong?Which settlements in Houston are you referring to? San Antonio has settlements going back to the early 1700's; what does Houston have that is "far older"?That is where you are wrong. The oxbow is NOT free flowing. That part does not Flow. The free flowing stream runs straight. The oxbow is blocked off at both ends. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
H-Town Man 4983 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 That is where you are wrong. The oxbow is NOT free flowing. That part does not Flow. The free flowing stream runs straight. The oxbow is blocked off at both ends.It is not blocked off as long as the floodgates are open, right? Only blocked if it is flooding. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Naviguessor 2184 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The water taxis transit the locks normally. Additionally, The river has other gates up by the museum and down by King William which control the level throughout downtown section. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mollusk 2391 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 George Herbert Walker Bush?Dave Ward?Tal Smith? /\ /\ /\ Holy Toledo, that's funny.   Speaking of which, in the "far older" category, let's not forget Milo Hamilton. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
toxtethogrady 807 Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 The Economy at a Glace came out for June. Takeaway, April 2015 Houston finally showed job losses, see page 5. http://www.houston.org/economy/archives/glance/Glance-June15%20final.pdf The Texas LMCI Showed a bounceback in job creation for May. Net result - payrolls jobs are at a record high of 2.85 million. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
toxtethogrady 807 Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 This is what it looks like when they drain the pond for cleaning:Â Damn. It's like Phyllis Diller with her makeup off... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Triton 11778 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 CBRE's Ryan Epstein on the multi-family market. Interesting that it's not what I am mainly hearing... we do see board oversupply in the multi-family market but as Ryan said, we are glad that the "pipeline is turning off." Most people on HAIF won't like to hear this, but we would be better sticking with townhomes, condos... single family, I mean, as we wait and see how the Houston market absorbs this new incoming supply.  http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Panel-Commercial-real-estate-largely-holding-its-6398104.php?t=67837018db&cmpid=twitter-premium Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Houston19514 4611 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 CBRE's Ryan Epstein on the multi-family market. Interesting that it's not what I am mainly hearing... we do see board oversupply in the multi-family market but as Ryan said, we are glad that the "pipeline is turning off." Most people on HAIF won't like to hear this, but we would be better sticking with townhomes, condos... single family, I mean, as we wait and see how the Houston market absorbs this new incoming supply.  http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Panel-Commercial-real-estate-largely-holding-its-6398104.php?t=67837018db&cmpid=twitter-premium What is it that you are not mainly hearing? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
cloud713 4037 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 (edited) . Edited July 22, 2015 by cloud713 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Triton 11778 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 What is it that you are not mainly hearing? Internally, we've discussed oversupply in the Houston market. Ryan, on the other hand, says he doesn't see that. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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