swtsig Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Haha... well there was another thread somewhere on this forum a few months back where people thought the boom would last forever. That this was the new normal. Even without the fall in oil prices, this could have been seen a mile away. It's basic economics... . Based on the internal data I've seen, I think there will be a shift more towards buying rather than renting. As lending continues to improve, it just doesn't make sense to rent for $3600 a month when monthly payments for a mortgage will hover not too far from that number. Not worried about a crash but this market will not be as red hot going into 2016 (yes, 2016). this has been happening for a few months. i mentioned probably two months ago that the spigot for multifamily equity had already begun to dry up with condo seeing an uptick. and this was before the drastic decline in oil prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Montrose1100 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I would quite enjoy some rental drop. How much do you think they will go down per square foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Vik Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Some projects will get delayed and more houses will get built, probably out in the suburbs. Rents on apartments will go down. Driving will be cheaper so we can do more. Oil and gas will keep flowing. Not too bad for a correction.And layoffsHBJ has a different take on all this:http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2014/11/21/report-houston-apartment-rents-will-continue-to.htmlAccording to Transwestern, vacancies are down to 9%, and rents are way up. This might be the big reason Class A's are more vacant than B and C properties.The absorption rate is still 20,000 units a year, so that would take care of everything either under construction or proposed in two years.20,000 is less than 24,000 that are expected to open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LarryDierker Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 24000 under construction and need for 19000 next year it says. The article doesn't state the 24000 will be complete next year. A good deal of them won't be ready for a few more years, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avossos Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 24000 under construction and need for 19000 next year it says. The article doesn't state the 24000 will be complete next year. A good deal of them won't be ready for a few more years, no?Very correct. Many of the high rise apartments will take awhile (years to complete) I think we will be right on line to meet demand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timoric Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxtethogrady Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 Bill Gilmer gave his own assessment. While he says the market is "getting ahead of itself", he did say that 22,000 units are needed next year. This from the guy who used to chair the southwest Fed. http://blog.chron.com/primeproperty/2014/11/economist-says-rents-outpaced-single-family-home-price-spike-in-recent-years/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxtethogrady Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 Haha... well there was another thread somewhere on this forum a few months back where people thought the boom would last forever. That this was the new normal. Even without the fall in oil prices, this could have been seen a mile away. It's basic economics... . Based on the internal data I've seen, I think there will be a shift more towards buying rather than renting. As lending continues to improve, it just doesn't make sense to rent for $3600 a month when monthly payments for a mortgage will hover not too far from that number. Not worried about a crash but this market will not be as red hot going into 2016 (yes, 2016).They aren't going to have enough single family homes to meet the demand. Houston needs to find residences for 125,000 or 150,000 people a year. We're on a pace to build 28,000 single family and 24,000 multifamily units this year, yet the supply of houses on the market continues to shrink. And who wants to commute in from Brookshire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
august948 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 And layoffs20,000 is less than 24,000 that are expected to open. Are you hoping for a drastic downturn so you can afford to move out of your parents house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swtsig Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 And layoffs20,000 is less than 24,000 that are expected to open. it's pretty peculiar to see the hard-on you get spinning every bit of Houston news in a negative light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Vik Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Are you hoping for a drastic downturn so you can afford to move out of your parents house?I haven't lived with my parents in 12 yearsit's pretty peculiar to see the hard-on you get spinning every bit of Houston news in a negative light.It's not negative it's just predictive analysis. Please stop being a homer you are the Matt Bullard of haif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Vik Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 There's also thisHouston has one of the most overvalued housing markets in the country, according to a national real estate websitehttp://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2014/10/houston-may-be-headed-toward-a-housing-bubble.html?s=image_gallery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFootsSocks Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Lol Slick just got railed. Damn rektAlso using HBJ as a credible source isn't your best start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
august948 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I haven't lived with my parents in 12 yearsIt's not negative it's just predictive analysis. Please stop being a homer you are the Matt Bullard of haif. And you are the Harold Camping of HAIF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClutchCity Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Lol Slick just got railed. Damn rektHe does a phenomenal job of ignoring any logical counter to his severely biased opinions, which he states as "facts", though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
august948 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 There's also thisHouston has one of the most overvalued housing markets in the country, according to a national real estate websitehttp://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2014/10/houston-may-be-headed-toward-a-housing-bubble.html?s=image_gallery Houston is at the bottom of the list at +8% vs fundamentals. Austin is at +19%. I think we can wait this one out. Railed by who? It was a fair discussion until a couple of childish posts. You mean like this one? Please stop being a homer you are the Matt Bullard of haif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swtsig Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 i do find it quite humorous that i get paid to take an objectively pessismistic outlook on the houston market yet somehow come off as the "matt bullard of haif". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMF Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 And you are the Harold Camping of HAIF. I think of him more as the "Snookie" or perhaps the "Honey Boo Boo" of HAIF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triton Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I'll keep quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Vik Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 i do find it quite humorous that i get paid to take an objectively pessismistic outlook on the houston market yet somehow come off as the "matt bullard of haif".On haif you are offended by any comment made against Houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triton Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Ok guys, please calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swtsig Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 On haif you are offended by any uneducated comment made against Houston fify. coincidentally you seem to make the brunt of those comments. i've made plenty of OBJECTIVELY negative comments towards Houston. here's a little exercise for you - name one positive thing about Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Vik Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 fify. coincidentally you seem to make the brunt of those comments. i've made plenty of OBJECTIVELY negative comments towards Houston.here's a little exercise for you - name one positive thing about Houston.Good selection of food Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avossos Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky-guy Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 fify. coincidentally you seem to make the brunt of those comments. i've made plenty of OBJECTIVELY negative comments towards Houston. here's a little exercise for you - name one positive thing about Houston. You want one positive thing about Houston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triton Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 This thread needs to be merged with the Can the Boom Continue? thread in the Houston Discussion forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strickn Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Thanks to Transwestern, Delta Associates, the George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis, and the B.E.A., we can take a closer look. == Hou-Galv core industries 2013 (last completed yr) as percent of gross regional product == Energy/Tech/FIRE & Transport/Warehousing/Trade & Manufacturing: 77%Education/Health/Gov't: 11%Non-core Industries: 7%Construction: 5% == Hou-Galv core industries 2008 as percent of gross regional product == Energy/Tech/FIRE & Transport/Warehousing/Trade & Manufacturing: 50%Non-core Industries: 29%Education/Health/Gov't: 12%Construction: 9% That doesn't bark like diversification to me. Granted, the dollar lost value between the 2008 dollars that recorded $269 billion in gross regional product and the 2013 dollars that chalked up $468 billion, but not many of us look under the hood of those pretty Gross Metropolitan Product statistics. Our nominal growth rate is not going to continue, and when that becomes evident, we're not going to look like such a haven for slower, other city regions' investment capital, and the virtuous circle of optimism will unravel. I dare not bring the chickenhawks fluttering out by comparing to sibling city regions, but here are links to 2013 and to 2008 from the same data sources, for the curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloud713 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Damn Strickn, I read 3 different posts by you this morning. All incredibly pessimistic. What's with all the gloom and doom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 People with nothing better to do at 3a.m. Saturday morning than to analyze and compare economic data have very little reason to be optimistic about anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobruss Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 On a positive note WTI did go up a dollar yesterday. Now everyone go to their rooms and take a time out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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