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Can the Boom Continue?


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May I ask a simple question?

Would housing prices be going up at their current rate in houston -- with the port and with TMC) -- if the current energy boom did not exist?

rhe port is great. TMC is great. But do you really think that they are responsible for the current economic times?

 

The port is definitely part of it....

 

http://abc13.com/business/massive-construction-project-begins-at-port-of-houston/242421/

 

http://www.chron.com/discoverhouston/employment-economy/article/Port-of-Houston-benefits-from-energy-boom-5752469.php

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May I ask a simple question?

Would housing prices be going up at their current rate in houston -- with the port and with TMC) -- if the current energy boom did not exist?

rhe port is great. TMC is great. But do you really think that they are responsible for the current economic times?

 

Clearly this current boom - or at least this phase of the boom - is attributable to the oil patch.  However, the growth is all connected.  Growth in the oil business will mean more growth in the port, more people, more hospitals, more doctors.  And believe it or not doctors make big money, and hence pay a lot for housing.

 

What do you want?  Do you want us to run from here screaming saying the "sky is falling, the sky is falling"?!  Do you want us to say "Houston's screwed if oil drops in price to $40?"

 

Revel in the current economic climate here in Houston/Texas and be glad for it.  You're right it could come crashing down - though I would tend to think if that happens its because of a worldwide calamity or economic crash far worse than the recession of 2008.

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When you look at city infrastructure (Rail Transit, streets with curbs and sidewalks, etc), Houston is far behind the others. So when we look at the GDP of the city, why aren't the amenities in Houston on par with the other cities at the top? Where is all of this money diapering to?

 

have you ever been to LA? sure they have a subway but their over infrastructure practically mimics Houston. for some reason you seem to think that economic prosperity has a direct causation to urbanity. IMO you are just scripting your own narrative to fit your notions.

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have you ever been to LA? sure they have a subway but their over infrastructure practically mimics Houston. for some reason you seem to think that economic prosperity has a direct causation to urbanity. IMO you are just scripting your own narrative to fit your notions.

 

I have been to LA and if you have been to LA you would know that LA is VERY and I mean VERY walkable and urban when compared to Houston. Don't believe me? go to Google earth and randomly drop down the street view.

 

I don't "bash" Houston for the sake of bashing like many on here believe that I do. I simply want the people of the city to know that the way the way the city has developed around the automobile is not the way of the future. Houston may have been the city of the future 50 years ago when automobiles were thought to be the way of the future and most other cities were thought to be backwards with their transits systems and walkable neighborhoods. But today pedestrian friendly is in, and vehicle friendly is out and it Houston does not quite seem to get that. The few developers that have tried still feel the need to accommodate vehicles over pedestrians. As I said before, I don't know if its the fault of the city government or the developers themselves.

 

Mayor Parker sometimes visits cities around the world that Houston does business with and it surprises me that she doesn't see the vast difference between these lively cities and the city that she runs. To me it just seems that there is no vision for the city other than building loop toll roads to break world records. Does anyone see what Houston is missing out on besides me?

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I have been to LA and if you have been to LA you would know that LA is VERY and I mean VERY walkable and urban when compared to Houston. Don't believe me? go to Google earth and randomly drop down the street view.

I don't "bash" Houston for the sake of bashing like many on here believe that I do. I simply want the people of the city to know that the way the way the city has developed around the automobile is not the way of the future. Houston may have been the city of the future 50 years ago when automobiles were thought to be the way of the future and most other cities were thought to be backwards with their transits systems and walkable neighborhoods. But today pedestrian friendly is in, and vehicle friendly is out and it Houston does not quite seem to get that. The few developers that have tried still feel the need to accommodate vehicles over pedestrians. As I said before, I don't know if its the fault of the city government or the developers themselves.

Mayor Parker sometimes visits cities around the world that Houston does business with and it surprises me that she doesn't see the vast difference between these lively cities and the city that she runs. To me it just seems that there is no vision for the city other than building loop toll roads to break world records. Does anyone see what Houston is missing out on besides me?

Sounds like a "grass is always greener on the other side" type problem.

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Mayor Parker sometimes visits cities around the world that Houston does business with and it surprises me that she doesn't see the vast difference between these lively cities and the city that she runs. To me it just seems that there is no vision for the city other than building loop toll roads to break world records. Does anyone see what Houston is missing out on besides me?

 

Houston - like any other city - is missing plenty of things.  It is not some singular phenomenon that is only relevant to Houston.

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I have been to LA and if you have been to LA you would know that LA is VERY and I mean VERY walkable and urban when compared to Houston. Don't believe me? go to Google earth and randomly drop down the street view.

 

I don't "bash" Houston for the sake of bashing like many on here believe that I do. I simply want the people of the city to know that the way the way the city has developed around the automobile is not the way of the future. Houston may have been the city of the future 50 years ago when automobiles were thought to be the way of the future and most other cities were thought to be backwards with their transits systems and walkable neighborhoods. But today pedestrian friendly is in, and vehicle friendly is out and it Houston does not quite seem to get that. The few developers that have tried still feel the need to accommodate vehicles over pedestrians. As I said before, I don't know if its the fault of the city government or the developers themselves.

 

Mayor Parker sometimes visits cities around the world that Houston does business with and it surprises me that she doesn't see the vast difference between these lively cities and the city that she runs. To me it just seems that there is no vision for the city other than building loop toll roads to break world records. Does anyone see what Houston is missing out on besides me?

LA has the worst traffic in the US.....

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Houston - like any other city - is missing plenty of things.  It is not some singular phenomenon that is only relevant to Houston.

While the common complaint is trains, I noted a lack of a real farmer's market (much less one located downtown) as part of the "missing" things.

Also, no city is perfect--I wager that in terms of Tex-Mex and BBQ Houston has NYC soundly beat.

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LA has 12 million more people living in the region than we do. Of course the traffic is worse.

 

Can you imagine what Houston traffic would be with just 1 million more people added to the area? It'll be here in just a few short years. 

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At least Houston has three basic industries to support it. Dallas has always been a bit more boom/bust and can't claim dominance in any one industry.

DFW has not been more boom and bust, that would go to Houston. DFW has always had a diversified economy, so it is more stable. It won't boom as much as Houston does during healthy economic times, but during a bust it won't get as down either.

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DFW has always had a diversified economy, so it is more stable.

That is untrue. Dallas had a less diversified economy for most of its existence. Its not until maybe the 70s when the area started to unify and resourses and manpower started to pool that that area became more diversified.

The recent growth in major industries such as communications, technology, etc are relatively recent. Dallas grew on one factor and that was its location. Its other industries such as banking/finance, etc were all small.

Houston area, for almost all of its existence has been a major player in shipping, oil and gas, and agriculture. In addition to that it shared similar smaller industries with Dallas (banking/ finance, distribution, ect). So Houston had the edge in diversity up until the 70s when oil really stated to overshadow everything else in Houston while the combined strength of combining with FW pooled industries together abd created a more diversified north texas.

I think population stats would support that. San Antonio, Austin, Dallas and even FW at points were all larger than Houston, but starting around 1900 Houston started gaining steam, it passed all others somewhere around the 1920s And didn't slow down until the bust of the 1980s when it was passed by the recently created CSA of DFW. I think the growth in the medical and distribution sector has account for a large portion of Houston's growth in the 2000s and we are steadily keeping on with a more well rounded economy.

I think if we continue expanding our ports and create more distribution centers and develop the east side of the metro we will weather a drop in the energy sector. Houston, although it is ahead of DFW and SA in education is still lacking in the education/ biotech/ pharmaceutical department.

Houston has the bones to slap the meat on, while DFW's success will forever be tied to its location. The center of US population has been steadily pushing in the direction of DFW. Its ability to reach x number of people in y number of time accounts for the massive growth on its airport and distribution industry. Just like Chicago, just like Atlanta.

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While the common complaint is trains, I noted a lack of a real farmer's market (much less one located downtown) as part of the "missing" things.

 

Tige, go behind Canino's sometime - that's a real, live farmer's market, open daily, with all sorts of things you just don't see in standard supermarkets, and an amazing assortment of taco trucks.  It's just not real well known, or particularly visible.

 

It would be nice if it were on a rail line, though.  :ph34r:

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Tige, go behind Canino's sometime - that's a real, live farmer's market, open daily, with all sorts of things you just don't see in standard supermarkets, and an amazing assortment of taco trucks.  It's just not real well known, or particularly visible.

 

It would be nice if it were on a rail line, though.  :ph34r:

Yes, that was mentioned in the other thread. It's not the fact that there's no farmer's market at all in Houston (there is, I'd be horrified if there wasn't), just a big, multi-purpose one located downtown like many cities do have. It's all about not just what a city has, but the quality of it. If you count Galveston as part of the greater Houston area, then you could say Houston has beaches. But good beaches? Aye, that's another thing.

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I think population stats would support that. San Antonio, Austin, Dallas and even FW at points were all larger than Houston, but starting around 1900 Houston started gaining steam, it passed all others somewhere around the 1920s And didn't slow down until the bust of the 1980s when it was passed by the recently created CSA of DFW. I think the growth in the medical and distribution sector has account for a large portion of Houston's growth in the 2000s and we are steadily keeping on with a more well rounded economy.

 

 

Bad beaches or not, I would add Galveston to that list. Its population was larger than Houston until around 1900, and it was the major commercial and trading center of Texas until the 1900 hurricane wiped most of the city away.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Fracking has brought in more supply, and demand in a lot of countries remains weak, so it makes sense that prices will fall.  Also, in a falling price environment there is always the incentive for OPEC members to produce more than their quotas, pushing down prices even more.  It will be interesting to see the impact on Houston.  

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Fracking has brought in more supply, and demand in a lot of countries remains weak, so it makes sense that prices will fall.  Also, in a falling price environment there is always the incentive for OPEC members to produce more than their quotas, pushing down prices even more.  It will be interesting to see the impact on Houston.  

 

The Saudis can produce oil much cheaper than we can. At $70 a barrel they will continue to make a lot of money but activity in Texas will slow considerably. It makes sense for them to push prices down in order to keep market share and shut down Texas. This could be really bad news for us. If prices get too low this boom in Houston will come to a sudden halt. I hope I'm wrong. 

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But Houston's economy is based on more than oil these days. Maybe this will mean trouble to places like Midland, but not Houston. There's still the huge shipping/energy industry, for starters.

 

 

The shipping/energy industry in Houston is very dependent on oil prices. If they drop it will drop. 

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Didn't someone say a while back that once the enormous projects start popping up (Uptown Park re-development, a rumor of a ritz and shopping along Dallas St.), that it means the boom is already over and the recession begins?

I think it would be healthier if our roll slowed down to catch our breath.

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Another article today on what the Saudis are doing. 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/facing-oil-glut-saudis-avoid-1980s-mistakes-halt-005348902--finance.html

 

It seems to me that they are taking the right strategy to avoid a complete crash in prices. Unfortunately that strategy involves lowering prices enough to slow production and exploration in the U.S.

 

In my opinion we are headed for a slow down in Houston. I don't think this will be anywhere close to what happened in the 80s though. This should be more like what happened around the year 1998-2001. I don't see a real estate crash. I think we'll just not see as many of the projects we like to talk about on here happen. 

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the difference between 1980 and now is that the USA is producing nearly as much oil now as it was at it's peak in the early 70s (10 million barrels per day). The USA is producing more oil now than it has for the past 28 years. Until US oil production slows again, Houston's economy won't slow either (at least not as a result of energy).

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