Can the Boom Continue?

[Montrose1100]

The port told me nothing. This is from a story in the Chronicle business section either today or

yesterday. You are right though about Chemicals, but apparently not enough to make up the difference of

oil, steel and retail goods and because the dollar is so strong there not exporting as many goods as

normal. I don't like this any more than everyone else but sometimes you have to pay attention to all of

the signs and right now the signs say slow down.

This won't be quite as bad as the eighties because we don't also have a savings and loan crisis going on

at the same time, but it still has a huge effect on our local economy and anyone want to say it doesn't

well they live in a Poly-anna world. Unfortunately oil drives most everything in Houston.

I am aware bob I was just being snarky since I deal with chemicals.

[swtsig]

Money NEVER dries up here. Oil used to be 75% of the Houston economy, today it's 37% as Houston has greatly diversified and has extraordinary staying power...economic resilience. It's finally hit critical mass as a city and economy, so whatever oil does doesn't matter as much anymore, while it's other powerhouse economic sectors still thrive. The same stats are about the same for New York's biggest economic sector: financial (which is also down like oil). Do you think investors/developers are leaving New York because financial is down? Exactly, and they aren't leaving Houston either. To think otherwise is what we call 'stinking thinking.' That's how Houston haters and negative nellies think. And OMG don't believe everything you read in the pitiful Chron: there are Houston haters who've infiltrated there and in other media that love hyping oil bad news to try to sway opinion and psyche people out as if it's 1980's Houston all over again: NOT! Things have slowed in financial and oil, but the show must and will go on. Cranes continue to go up and fly all across Houston and New York (many people are EXTREMELY JEALOUS of this and want to try to bring Houston down: not gonna happen, sorry haters...wherever you are). This is not 1980's Houston...this is a new dynamic resilient Houston economy that's here to stay. Get used to it. So take that negative nellie loser mentality crap somewhere else. Houston, like New York, is not having it.

Why is stating the truth taken as being "negative"? Most of what bobruss said is spot on - the market here is not all rainbows and unicorns. Most of the money has in fact left town and almost all the cranes you see up or going up are for projects that were approved in a substantially better market. Oil still dominates our economy, maybe not to the extent as before but it still drives this economy. And no one is "jealous" of all of our cranes besides architecture forum fan boys.

Perhaps you shouldn't be so threatened by an economic downturn... It happens to all cities and all economies of all sizes. Relish in the fact that after this downturn the houston market will rebound as it always does. Maybe not next year or even 2017 but soon.

[BigFootsSocks]

Why is stating the truth taken as being "negative"? Most of what bobruss said is spot on - the market here is not all rainbows and unicorns. Most of the money has in fact left town and almost all the cranes you see up or going up are for projects that were approved in a substantially better market. Oil still dominates our economy, maybe not to the extent as before but it still drives this economy. And no one is "jealous" of all of our cranes besides architecture forum fan boys.

Perhaps you shouldn't be so threatened by an economic downturn... It happens to all cities and all economies of all sizes. Relish in the fact that after this downturn the houston market will rebound as it always does. Maybe not next year or even 2017 but soon.

A la la la la la I can't hear you! Depressions and recessions and stagnating economies are all apart of the liburuhl agenda!

[BigFootsSocks]

The economy is not exactly great (rainbows and unicorns) anywhere in America right now. But in Houston, it's better than most places, and not the gloom and doom that Houston haters try to assess. Oil is down temporarily, like financial in New York. But otherwise, Houston is doing just fine.

Let me paraphrase for everyone;

 

"So for right now, in this very moment, you are right. But in the future, when the economy is doing better, and when oil is doing better, I will be right. So I'm right. Anyone who disagrees is a h8r"

[mollusk]

"So for right now, in this very moment, you are right. But in the future, when the economy is doing better, and when oil is doing better, I will be right. So I'm right. Anyone who disagrees is a h8r"

 

that sounds like something out of Vonnegut. 

[enriquewx91]

As a Houstonian that has recently moved to the Detroit Metro area, it could be a lot worse trust me! 

I never thought I would see as bad of a city and economic problems as Detroit currently is, what was I thinking moving here.

I'll be back home for good soon enough!

[Timoric]

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[enriquewx91]

My entire immediate family moved to Detroit too. You can do well if you have a Union job at an auto plant and don't get laid off. In the support industries, I had two relatives get laid off and they have never recovered. Went from 6 figure to hustling in one case and from high 5 figure to Home Depot in the other. My favorite memory of Detroit was fishing on the pier in sight of the Ambassador Bridge with my grandmother and I always remember warning me about the undertow. If you fall in you go under and you don't come back up. She had a thick rope tied to my waste at all times fishing there.

 

When I go back now I eat at that old Mexican restaurant in Downtown Detroit, Mexican Village? And eat plenty of diner food and White Castles around Wyandotte.

 

Sounds rough as I am pretty sure I have seen all over this city. I am in the aviation industry so no unions where I am. The Ambassador Bridge is really nice as well as the food here, cant complain about that.

What does really impress me about here is the architecture of the buildings all around the city. Most buildings I have visited like the Michigan Central Station are just stunning. Sad that they are abandoned and slowly deteriorating like most buildings in Detroit.

[toxtethogrady]

Oil is down temporarily, like financial in New York. But otherwise, Houston is doing just fine.

 

In March, there will be a nationwide revision of the national employment numbers, and then we'll know for certain. What is interesting is that the Dallas-Fort Worth economy is also slowing a bit (103,000 new jobs YOY versus 125,000 YOY earlier this year. Meanwhile San Francisco/San Jose has created 125,000, Los Angeles is seeing 120,000 new jobs, and New York is showing 160,000 new jobs. They need a lot of construction workers to build those thousand-foot condos in Midtown Manhattan. 

[Triton]

I'm sorry, I've been trying to keep my mouth shut for several days now but there is just too much misinformation to move on. HTXUSA, not sure whether you are a troll or whether you believe what you're saying but let's correct all the "facts" you got wrong with an actual report that came out today....

 

This city has hit critical mass

 

Man.. I see someone claim this once every quarter or so on this forum. We will likely see periodic residential projects on the count of natural population growth and the success of markets unrelated to oil. HOWEVER, cities do not hit a critical mass that fling it into constant growth. This is simple cyclical economics. Cities have upswings and downswings. Houston does have sub-markets that outperform others such as the growth we see in downtown; however, almost everyone on this forum knows we are currently in a downward trend.

 

Do you think investors/developers are leaving New York because financial is down? Exactly, and they aren't leaving Houston either.

 

Absolutely, positively false. Yes, in fact, investors did leave NYC after the financial collapse. Silverstein Properties has had quite a difficult time raising the money it needed to rebuild the World Trade Center... look how many years that's taken. Many proposed projects that were planned for 2008 in NYC are just starting to take off now such as Tower Verre.... because investors left and are back. Money flows around... which takes us to Houston....

 

Investment into Houston has plummeted at a shocking level. Houston has dropped to the 50th spot in investment in a report from ULI (Spot 30 overall). The only thing keeping us afloat is home building.

 

The economy is not exactly great (rainbows and unicorns) anywhere in America right now. But in Houston, it's better than most places, and not the gloom and doom that Houston haters try to assess. Oil is down temporarily, like financial in New York. But otherwise, Houston is doing just fine.

 

Nope. The US economy is doing quite well actually, especially compared to the rest of the world, although corporate profits have been a little stagnant lately. The US economy grew at a revised rate of 3.9% in Q2. Quite impressive for a developed country. The thing that's been hurting average Americans is wage growth, which actually contracted a small percentage last month.  The US real estate market is actually doing quite well and has been growing pretty steadily. Here's construction activity in the US as of September 1st:

 

 

For Houston, we used to be at the top of real estate market lists, usually number one or two. Now? We're at spot 30 in real estate prospects. 

 

 

Seriously, I can't like swtsig's comment enough. He hit the nail on the head. No one wants to be negative on this forum... we aren't Houston haters at all. I love this city and it keeps getting better. But at the same time, we have to be realistic here and face facts. Once we acknowledge there's a problem, then we can fix it. My opinion, we need to make oil less and less of a player in this city and begin moving into future tech (medical/software/biotech/aerospace/aeronautics), but again that's just my opinion.

 

[swtsig]

Since this thread has already derailed and TC is no longer active w this project I might as well put this here:

http://www.houston.org/pdf/research/quickview/Economy_at_a_Glance.pdf

Pretty much echoes Triton's comments above. The economy is not great, it's gonna get worse and the numbers bear that out.

[Moore713]

That why the space port and TMC new campus should be a high priority

[LarryDierker]

Maybe if you guys weren't up all night posting on HAIF the economy would be doing better. tired workers are inefficient workers.

[BigFootsSocks]

Damnit, I hate it when my takes are too hot to enjoy. Gotta let this one cool down

[invisibletrees]

My eyes

[Triton]

Nevermind

[Timoric]

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[Montrose1100]

The reason Houston had 30B in new Construction on Houston.org Economy at a Glance was the petro chemical stuff. Hopefully that is a bright spot in this storm as well. I think anything that improves the Port is another essential upgrade with important benefits with the Panama Canal widening. Make it so they can navigate and park bigger ships in Houston. That is one area Dallas can't touch. They are landlocked, we are 50 miles from the Ocean.

I don't think we have to do anything for the wider ships. They should be able to berth at our two container berths at Barbour's Cut & Bayport. Freeport has one as well.

[enriquewx91]

THERE ARE GREAT FORCES/HOUSTON HATERS AT WORK (INSIDE TEXAS AND OUTSIDE) THAT ARE WORKING HARD TO BRING HOUSTON DOWN. THE WHOLE OIL SLUMP IS A TEMPORARY MAN-MADE MESS DESIGNED TO STOP HOUSTON'S UPWARD TRAJECTORY, AMONG OTHER THINGS. THE HOUSTON HATERS (WHO NOW HAVE POWERFUL COHORTS IN THE MEDIA THAT PRINT OPINIONATED/FABRICATED BULLSH!T BAD NEWS STORIES...HOUSTON #1 TODAY, #50 THE NEXT DAY, LOL), ARE PISSED THAT HOUSTON'S RESILIENT DIVERSIED ECONOMY (LIKE NEW YORK'S), HAS SAVED IT AND KEEPS IT AFLOAT, IN SPITE OF WHATEVER OIL DOES. THEY ARE SHOCKED AND PERPLEXED THAT, AFTER ALL THEIR EFFORTS, HOUSTON IS STILL EXPANDING. LARRYDIEKER IS RIGHT, THE GLOOM AND DOOMERS SHOULD STOP READING AND POSTING CRAP ABOUT HOUSTON FROM ITS ENEMIES. PEOPLE HAVE ENEMIES, GREAT CITIES DO TOO. THE NEGAVITY BEING AIMED AT HOUSTON IS ONLY IT'S DEFEATED (ALBEIT POWERFUL) ENEMIES B****ING, CRYING AND BELLY-ACHING ABOUT THE INEVITABLE: HOUSTON'S CONTINUED SUCCESS. GOT IT?! Houston Collapsing?! LOL...DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE!

[bobruss]

I don't think we have to do anything for the wider ships. They should be able to berth at our two container berths at Barbour's Cut & Bayport. Freeport has one as well.

Its not the width of the container ships that will be calling on the Port of Houston but the depth. This new class of container ships has a much deeper draft because of the weight of the cargoes they can carry so they are deepening the channel, is what I read. But then that was probably some subversive Dallas writer and enemy of Houston.

There is no national envy or jealousy for Houston. Right now they are just tickled to be spending half of what they were for

gas in the rest of the country.

You need to realize that we live in a city of cycles and right now were slowing down and catching our

breath, which is a good thing. Now we can digest what we 've just produced and let that sink in before

our next upward cycle. We just had two years of unbelievable growth and have been able to create a new downtown with people who will actually live work and play downtown. Something I wasn't sure I would see in my lifetime. So just relax none is trig to bring Houston down here, were just being realistic.

[The Ozone Files]

I don't know if we should spin this off into another thread about the Port of Houston, but this story was posted today by the FuelFix blog:

 

Pair of Houston companies partner up to build new Ship Channel terminal

 

 

The 988-acre, TDWP Terminals property along Jacintoport Boulevard will ultimately support more rail delivery for liquid hydrocarbons, in addition to storage, blending and export operations, according to the announcement. The location offers access to inbound and outbound pipelines, as well as to barges and Gulf Coast refining centers.

 

[Triton]

Haha... at this point the thread should be split off into the Port of Houston, Can the boom continue?, and MURICA!!!! 

[Urbannizer]

Comments revised/removed, don't cross the line from discussing something to attacking one another. That will not be allowed here. 

[kdog08]

That why the space port and TMC new campus should be a high priority

 

Absolutely, but a higher priority should be higher education with an emphasis on UH but also HCC and UHD. I'd like it go to a bond vote to build 3000-5000 units of student housing (good deal of 3-4 bedroom units) along the rail near the major educational centers like UH/TSU along SE line, HCC/Rice/UHD in south Midtown, and the TMC educational institutions at the Smith lands Main St stop. Either a private group or the individual educational institutions manage it with a cap on rent tied to inflation. I think it will not only relieve the institutions of a good deal of the financial burden of student housing, but it will also create a better environment that will make Houston more desirable. 

 

Rice certainly has the land and the coin to increase in size while still maintaining it's high level of academics. 

[swtsig]

i feel like slick vic posting this:

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2015/10/13/statoil-begins-houston-job-cuts.html

 

 

[Urbannizer]

Condo buildings to continue to thrive in Houston:

 

http://www.papercitymag.com/interiors/palaces-in-the-sky-inside-houstons-high-rise-revolution-and-its-city-changing-consequences/

 

"This is only the beginning. There will be true luxury high-rises rising in every open and feasibly convertible spot from Shepherd to the bayou before long. It will dramatically change Houston’s skyline,” Bland tells PaperCity.

[curbur]

Condo buildings to continue to thrive in Houston:

 

http://www.papercitymag.com/interiors/palaces-in-the-sky-inside-houstons-high-rise-revolution-and-its-city-changing-consequences/

 

Do they mean the bayou as it passes around the east side of town? Otherwise, I'm pretty sure Shepherd and the bayou are perpendicular.

[KinkaidAlum]

i feel like slick vic posting this:

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2015/10/13/statoil-begins-houston-job-cuts.html

 

This has been known for a few months. Hence, the closing of the SAS Privatair route later this month.

[DrLan34]

http://www.houston.org/pdf/research/quickview/Economy_at_a_Glance.pdf

 

The September employment report (due out October 16) may provide some clue as to how the year will finish. Houston typically adds 6,000 to 18,000 jobs in the month, 10,000 being the 20-year average. Job growth comes from several sources, with the return of educators to the classroom accounting for the bulk of the gains. If the Texas Workforce Commission reports at least minimal job growth for Houston in September, the year should end on a positive note. Since ’95, the region has created an average of 29,000 jobs in the fourth quarter. If Houston fails to add any jobs in September, hiring in Q4 might not be enough to offset the job losses so far this year.

 

The Partnership recently revised its employment outlook to better reflect current economic conditions. The forecast now calls for the region to add 20,000 to 30,000 jobs in ’15. That compares to 104,700 created in ’14 and 89,900 created the year prior.

[Timoric]

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