Can the Boom Continue?

[toxtethogrady]

Word in the HBJ is 6,800 new homes got sold in Houston in Q2 (about 13% higher than last year, and much higher than the 5,200 sold in Dallas-Fort Worth). The demand for new residences isn't quitting anytime soon.

[UtterlyUrban]

Word in the HBJ is 6,800 new homes got sold in Houston in Q2 (about 13% higher than last year, and much higher than the 5,200 sold in Dallas-Fort Worth). The demand for new residences isn't quitting anytime soon.

Which is exactly what folks said in houston in 1981........

[Avossos]

In all honesty, I think we will see growth in Houston sustain at a high volume. Houston has become a market where investments and construction will be a constant factor

[BigFootsSocks]

Yeah but the boom in the 80's was based solely on the gasoline boom. Now we have a much larger Medical center, the nations largest export on the ship channel, and the need for natural gas isn't going anywhere soon now that we will soon be able to export it.

[Naviguessor]

The bust occurred because a decision made by OPEC to end the embargo. There isn't that kind of lever positioned over us now. Not going to say that there won't ever be another bust or that this boom won't level off. But just because we had one big boom before doesn't mean we will have another in the same way.

[UtterlyUrban]

A cynic would say that these 3 answers above are like the Dutch justifying a tulip bulb.

Personally, I hope all of you are correct but, I fear that you are not. Only time will tell and I really hope you are all correct.

Edited September 27, 2014 by UtterlyUrban

[BigFootsSocks]

Well no duh it's gonna end sometime, that's just classic economics, but we're still a long way from that point and whether it will be a sharp decline or gradual is the real question.

If that doesn't make sense I'm a little blazed rn

[Naviguessor]

1981 was 33 years ago. Most people on this site aren't even that old. Anyway....Don't you think we 've grown and changed a bit sence then? Like every city in the U.S. God. Can we all agree to enter a new state of reality?

[UtterlyUrban]

1981 was 33 years ago. Most people on this site aren't even that old. Anyway....Don't you think we 've grown and changed a bit sence then? Like every city in the U.S. God. Can we all agree to enter a new state of reality?

Sure we can enter a new state of reality. But is what we are experiencing now real or not?

The current local boom is being driven by one thing..... One..... Energy. Sure, folks come to houston to get great medical care at TMC and the port is also great. Both of those contribute to "local GDP" but they are not at the root of this boom. Energy is. If, as in 1983, the world energy markets (or North American energy markets.... Especially shale) sniffle, houston will get a cold. If the world markets get a cold, houston will get the flu.

There are a number of reasons I, or others, can give you that will show, that the energy boom is here to stay.... It is absolutely the new reality. I, or others, can also give you a dozen reasons to show you that the energy boom is not going to last and will end is bust.

The point that "most" folks on this board were not alive in 1980 (BTW, do you know "most" folks on this board???? "Most" means a majority. Perhaps you mean "many") is irrelevant. Booms and busts in the energy sector are historically common. The only question is when the next bust comes -- as one poster above suggests --- how bad will it be?

[HoustonIsHome]

I don't think the economy would tank as bad as in the early 80s because we are more stabilized right now. But an energy ding would echo across the economy. The might port right now is way more diversified than it was in the 80s but oil and its bi products still play a heft role in its stature.

Similarly the health industry blossoms based on a healthy population growth based on a healthy service industry growth based on a healthy industry job boom which is based on a healthy energy market.

Lawyers, engineers, scientists are all needed in great supply to feed the huge demand in manpower that the energy sector requires. All of these workers need food, housing and heath care which means a healthy energy sector creates more demand for housing and greatly supports our port and medical center.

Anyway, I don't see a mass exodus or a huge slow down poping up suddenly. I think that job loss shouldn't be too sharp and workers May be able to be reabsorbed.

Houston is becoming more diversified by the day. Biotechnology, Tech, Manufacturing and thus shipping, are all increasing.

What we need to do is take a bigger bite out of the logistics monster that comes from our very own port. Many many many jobs are shipped directly to DFW from our port. In fact DFW became the largest metro in Texas based on logistics. Healthy economies in other areas of Texas created steady growth in DFW. Over the last 100 years DFW has benefited from transporting cattle from S. TEXAS, Cotton from San Antonio and other areas, port exports and imports from Houston, produce from all over texas and Mexico, and people through its airport. We need to do more of our own handling and distribution.

[fernz]

This discussion is absurd. There's a reason they're called cycles. History has proved they always happen, and to pretend this time is different just because we're at the top of the cycle is insane.

We can debate whether it will be as sharp as previous ones or not, but the boom will stop, projects will get canceled, some buildings will sit mostly empty after completion, and some will even stop during construction. That's the nature of the beast.

[Timoric]

-

 

 

 

Edited July 8, 2019 by Timoric

[Triton]

This discussion is absurd. There's a reason they're called cycles. History has proved they always happen, and to pretend this time is different just because we're at the top of the cycle is insane.

We can debate whether it will be as sharp as previous ones or not, but the boom will stop, projects will get canceled, some buildings will sit mostly empty after completion, and some will even stop during construction. That's the nature of the beast.

Thank you.

[HoustonIsHome]

http://www.houston.org/pdf/research/quickview/economy_at_a_glance.pdf

I noticed that Houston is the biggest exporting city... I really want to see the latest GDP numbers, the ones out now are a couple of years old, I predict 550 Billion baby!

This is most recent. It is for 2013:

2013 Metropolitan Area(MSA) Gross Product, $200 Billion+

New York $1.471 Trillion (19.8 million people)

Los Angeles $826.826 Billion (13.3 million people)

Chicago $590.248 Billion (9.5 million people)

Houston $517.367 Billion (6.3 million people)

Washington DC $463.925 Billion (6.0 million people)

Dallas $447.524 Billion (6.8 million people)

San Francisco $388.272 Billion (4.5 million people)

Philadelphia $383.401 Billion (6.0 million people)

Boston $370.769 Billion (4.6 million people)

Seattle $307.769 Billion (3.8 million people)

Atlanta $307.233 Billion (5.5 million people)

Miami $281.076 Billion (5.8 million people)

Minneapolis $227.793 Billion (3.4 million people)

Detroit $224.726 Billion (4.2 million people)

Phoenix $209.523 Billion (4.4 million people)

Houston is undoubtedly the 4th largest city in the country in terms of economic heft. Even with the help of whole other cities we are still ahead. And we are by far the biggest fish in the south. Way ahead of Miami and ATL

Edited September 27, 2014 by HoustonIsHome

[citykid09]

This is most recent. It is for 2013:

2013 Metropolitan Area(MSA) Gross Product, $200 Billion+

New York $1.471 Trillion (19.8 million people)

Los Angeles $826.826 Billion (13.3 million people)

Chicago $590.248 Billion (9.5 million people)

Houston $517.367 Billion (6.3 million people)

Washington DC $463.925 Billion (6.0 million people)

Dallas $447.524 Billion (6.8 million people)

San Francisco $388.272 Billion (4.5 million people)

Philadelphia $383.401 Billion (6.0 million people)

Boston $370.769 Billion (4.6 million people)

Seattle $307.769 Billion (3.8 million people)

Atlanta $307.233 Billion (5.5 million people)

Miami $281.076 Billion (5.8 million people)

Minneapolis $227.793 Billion (3.4 million people)

Detroit $224.726 Billion (4.2 million people)

Phoenix $209.523 Billion (4.4 million people)

Houston is undoubtedly the 4th largest city in the country in terms of economic heft. Even with the help of whole other cities we are still ahead. And we are by far the biggest fish in the south. Way ahead of Miami and ATL

 

When you look at city infrastructure (Rail Transit, streets with curbs and sidewalks, etc), Houston is far behind the others. So when we look at the GDP of the city, why aren't the amenities in Houston on par with the other cities at the top? Where is all of this money diapering to?

[IronTiger]

When you look at city infrastructure (Rail Transit, streets with curbs and sidewalks, etc), Houston is far behind the others. So when we look at the GDP of the city, why aren't the amenities in Houston on par with the other cities at the top? Where is all of this money diapering to?[/quote

"Diapering"?

[Dakota79]

When you look at city infrastructure (Rail Transit, streets with curbs and sidewalks, etc), Houston is far behind the others. So when we look at the GDP of the city, why aren't the amenities in Houston on par with the other cities at the top? Where is all of this money diapering to?[/quote

"Diapering"?

DAKOTA79. It's not going to the roads. A tank is needed to navigate virtually every street. Then, they tear up every good road at the same time so there are no options even for the seasoned Houstonian.

And rail? 8 miles. Whew. That's a big help. Thanks Metro, Culberson, Delay. Etc etc etc.

Edited September 27, 2014 by Dakota79

[Luminare]

please get rail talk out of this thread please -.- smh

[toxtethogrady]

A cynic would say that these 3 answers above are like the Dutch justifying a tulip bulb.

Personally, I hope all of you are correct but, I fear that you are not. Only time will tell and I really hope you are all correct.

 

At least Houston has three basic industries to support it. Dallas has always been a bit more boom/bust and can't claim dominance in any one industry.

[IronTiger]

GDP doesn't have anything to do with a city's amenities, really. An African country could have fantastic GDP but it's going to do jack squat as far as nice things in cities go if it all gets funneled to a fantastically rich warlord.

[Luminare]

At least Houston has three basic industries to support it. Dallas has always been a bit more boom/bust and can't claim dominance in any one industry.

 

Which is why we must push for further growth in Hightech industry and especially aerospace. That's our future.

 

....and I'm continuing to this extremely large tangent in discussion -.-

 

Just build this mother f already.

[citykid09]

GDP doesn't have anything to do with a city's amenities, really. An African country could have fantastic GDP but it's going to do jack squat as far as nice things in cities go if it all gets funneled to a fantastically rich warlord.

 

Not speaking of cities in Africa, Speaking of cities in the United States. There seems to be a direct correlation between GDP and city infrastructure in other American cities. But when it comes to Houston it seems that everything must be as cheap as possible or it won't get built. Its seen in all of the recent architecture (box shaped buildings), the power-lines strung about all over the city, the rail road track cross overs in nice areas of the city, etc. I guess Houston's purpose as a city is for people to make money and move on to a nicer city that does not have all of these problems.

[IronTiger]

Not speaking of cities in Africa, Speaking of cities in the United States. There seems to be a direct correlation between GDP and city infrastructure in other American cities. But when it comes to Houston it seems that everything must be as cheap as possible or it won't get built. Its seen in all of the recent architecture (box shaped buildings), the power-lines strung about all over the city, the rail road track cross overs in nice areas of the city, etc. I guess Houston's purpose as a city is for people to make money and move on to a nicer city that does not have all of these problems.

Most of those complaints seem petty at best or exaggerated at worse. Anyway, despite the (what I feel is) a bad location, this tower doesn't look too bad.

[Subdude]

When you look at city infrastructure (Rail Transit, streets with curbs and sidewalks, etc), Houston is far behind the others. So when we look at the GDP of the city, why aren't the amenities in Houston on par with the other cities at the top? Where is all of this money diapering to?

 

I would agree that infrastructure is Houston's weak spot.  If we want to keep growing at the same pace we're going to have to invest more in infrastructure.  I've said it before, but the street quality in Houston is by far the worst I've encountered in any large city.  We're talking third-world standard here.  

 

I don't know about logistics in any detail, but it does seem crucial to taking advantage of the port and continuing growth.  This means continuing investment in the port, rail lines, roads and the airport.  

[Metro West]

Haters gonna hate.

Bitches gonna b¡tch.

 

And the opinions on this website gets less relevant as each day ends.

Edited September 29, 2014 by Metro West

[arche_757]

I think - from my own personal discussion with people related to the oil business - this boom won't continue forever (obviously); however, the odds that we have another "bust" like what was experienced in the 1980s seems highly unlikely.  If that happens then we're facing a global slowdown the likes of which will harm the economic output to the extent that we won't be singularly worried about Houston... we'll be worried about the national economy as a whole.

 

Taking a smaller recession or slow down in the energy business (similar to what happened post-Enron) we'll see other sectors continue on with business as usual.  The 1990s and early 2000s saw rapid growth in the TMC complex, expansion in Houston's international ties due to the shipping industry and growth at the Port of Houston.

 

The boom - at least in terms of commercial construction is slowing (you can tell by the dwindling number of proposals trickling down right now), but the uptick in residential, and residential-service construction is yet to really start.  Where are the new schools, hospitals, services, retail?  Aside from growth inside the Loop in big mixed-use projects and a few other locations (The Woodlands, City Center etc) this area has yet to really take off elsewhere in the Houston region.

 

And to those who keep talking about the oil business, you fail to recall the massive port complex we have just east of Downtown.  Its there.  It isn't going away, it will only grow in size, scope, scale.  Global shipping is an immense industry.  Houston is positioned very well to continue to reap the rewards of forward thinking and a huge port industrial complex that makes us a much different city from places like Dallas and Atlanta.

[Naviguessor]

Thank you, Arche.  My point exactly.

[IronTiger]

I think the bad infrastructure thing is largely overstated. Potholes are bad, but isn't it true that repairs slowed under Parker, instead of fixing it?

Above ground wiring is kind of unsightly, but it's much more subdued than other countries that this comparison comes from and is much better working order.

Finally, water and sewer lines seem to be decent, it's not like Detroit where there are literally dozens of pipe breaks everywhere.

[HoustonMidtown]

I think the bad infrastructure thing is largely overstated. Potholes are bad, but isn't it true that repairs slowed under Parker, instead of fixing it?

Above ground wiring is kind of unsightly, but it's much more subdued than other countries that this comparison comes from and is much better working order.

Finally, water and sewer lines seem to be decent, it's not like Detroit where there are literally dozens of pipe breaks everywhere.Water 

 

Water lines could use some work...

 

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/science-environment/article/Texas-losing-billions-of-gallons-to-annual-water-5086902.php

[UtterlyUrban]

May I ask a simple question?

Would housing prices be going up at their current rate in houston -- with the port and with TMC) -- if the current energy boom did not exist?

rhe port is great. TMC is great. But do you really think that they are responsible for the current economic times?

[towerjunkie]

Tin foil hats anyone? Cant we just enjoy the boom while it lasts? 

[HoustonMidtown]

May I ask a simple question?

Would housing prices be going up at their current rate in houston -- with the port and with TMC) -- if the current energy boom did not exist?

rhe port is great. TMC is great. But do you really think that they are responsible for the current economic times?

 

The port is definitely part of it....

 

http://abc13.com/business/massive-construction-project-begins-at-port-of-houston/242421/

 

http://www.chron.com/discoverhouston/employment-economy/article/Port-of-Houston-benefits-from-energy-boom-5752469.php

[jgriff]

With a bust in the oil market the port would see far less traffic. 

[arche_757]

May I ask a simple question?

Would housing prices be going up at their current rate in houston -- with the port and with TMC) -- if the current energy boom did not exist?

rhe port is great. TMC is great. But do you really think that they are responsible for the current economic times?

 

Clearly this current boom - or at least this phase of the boom - is attributable to the oil patch.  However, the growth is all connected.  Growth in the oil business will mean more growth in the port, more people, more hospitals, more doctors.  And believe it or not doctors make big money, and hence pay a lot for housing.

 

What do you want?  Do you want us to run from here screaming saying the "sky is falling, the sky is falling"?!  Do you want us to say "Houston's screwed if oil drops in price to $40?"

 

Revel in the current economic climate here in Houston/Texas and be glad for it.  You're right it could come crashing down - though I would tend to think if that happens its because of a worldwide calamity or economic crash far worse than the recession of 2008.

[swtsig]

When you look at city infrastructure (Rail Transit, streets with curbs and sidewalks, etc), Houston is far behind the others. So when we look at the GDP of the city, why aren't the amenities in Houston on par with the other cities at the top? Where is all of this money diapering to?

 

have you ever been to LA? sure they have a subway but their over infrastructure practically mimics Houston. for some reason you seem to think that economic prosperity has a direct causation to urbanity. IMO you are just scripting your own narrative to fit your notions.

[citykid09]

have you ever been to LA? sure they have a subway but their over infrastructure practically mimics Houston. for some reason you seem to think that economic prosperity has a direct causation to urbanity. IMO you are just scripting your own narrative to fit your notions.

 

I have been to LA and if you have been to LA you would know that LA is VERY and I mean VERY walkable and urban when compared to Houston. Don't believe me? go to Google earth and randomly drop down the street view.

 

I don't "bash" Houston for the sake of bashing like many on here believe that I do. I simply want the people of the city to know that the way the way the city has developed around the automobile is not the way of the future. Houston may have been the city of the future 50 years ago when automobiles were thought to be the way of the future and most other cities were thought to be backwards with their transits systems and walkable neighborhoods. But today pedestrian friendly is in, and vehicle friendly is out and it Houston does not quite seem to get that. The few developers that have tried still feel the need to accommodate vehicles over pedestrians. As I said before, I don't know if its the fault of the city government or the developers themselves.

 

Mayor Parker sometimes visits cities around the world that Houston does business with and it surprises me that she doesn't see the vast difference between these lively cities and the city that she runs. To me it just seems that there is no vision for the city other than building loop toll roads to break world records. Does anyone see what Houston is missing out on besides me?

[IronTiger]

I have been to LA and if you have been to LA you would know that LA is VERY and I mean VERY walkable and urban when compared to Houston. Don't believe me? go to Google earth and randomly drop down the street view.

I don't "bash" Houston for the sake of bashing like many on here believe that I do. I simply want the people of the city to know that the way the way the city has developed around the automobile is not the way of the future. Houston may have been the city of the future 50 years ago when automobiles were thought to be the way of the future and most other cities were thought to be backwards with their transits systems and walkable neighborhoods. But today pedestrian friendly is in, and vehicle friendly is out and it Houston does not quite seem to get that. The few developers that have tried still feel the need to accommodate vehicles over pedestrians. As I said before, I don't know if its the fault of the city government or the developers themselves.

Mayor Parker sometimes visits cities around the world that Houston does business with and it surprises me that she doesn't see the vast difference between these lively cities and the city that she runs. To me it just seems that there is no vision for the city other than building loop toll roads to break world records. Does anyone see what Houston is missing out on besides me?

Sounds like a "grass is always greener on the other side" type problem.

[arche_757]

Mayor Parker sometimes visits cities around the world that Houston does business with and it surprises me that she doesn't see the vast difference between these lively cities and the city that she runs. To me it just seems that there is no vision for the city other than building loop toll roads to break world records. Does anyone see what Houston is missing out on besides me?

 

Houston - like any other city - is missing plenty of things.  It is not some singular phenomenon that is only relevant to Houston.

[HoustonMidtown]

I have been to LA and if you have been to LA you would know that LA is VERY and I mean VERY walkable and urban when compared to Houston. Don't believe me? go to Google earth and randomly drop down the street view.

 

I don't "bash" Houston for the sake of bashing like many on here believe that I do. I simply want the people of the city to know that the way the way the city has developed around the automobile is not the way of the future. Houston may have been the city of the future 50 years ago when automobiles were thought to be the way of the future and most other cities were thought to be backwards with their transits systems and walkable neighborhoods. But today pedestrian friendly is in, and vehicle friendly is out and it Houston does not quite seem to get that. The few developers that have tried still feel the need to accommodate vehicles over pedestrians. As I said before, I don't know if its the fault of the city government or the developers themselves.

 

Mayor Parker sometimes visits cities around the world that Houston does business with and it surprises me that she doesn't see the vast difference between these lively cities and the city that she runs. To me it just seems that there is no vision for the city other than building loop toll roads to break world records. Does anyone see what Houston is missing out on besides me?

LA has the worst traffic in the US.....

[IronTiger]

Houston - like any other city - is missing plenty of things.  It is not some singular phenomenon that is only relevant to Houston.

While the common complaint is trains, I noted a lack of a real farmer's market (much less one located downtown) as part of the "missing" things.

Also, no city is perfect--I wager that in terms of Tex-Mex and BBQ Houston has NYC soundly beat.

[KinkaidAlum]

LA has 12 million more people living in the region than we do. Of course the traffic is worse.

 

Can you imagine what Houston traffic would be with just 1 million more people added to the area? It'll be here in just a few short years. 

[Trae]

At least Houston has three basic industries to support it. Dallas has always been a bit more boom/bust and can't claim dominance in any one industry.

DFW has not been more boom and bust, that would go to Houston. DFW has always had a diversified economy, so it is more stable. It won't boom as much as Houston does during healthy economic times, but during a bust it won't get as down either.

[Howard Huge]

LA has 12 million more people living in the region than we do. Of course the traffic is worse.

Can you imagine what Houston traffic would be with just 1 million more people added to the area? It'll be here in just a few short years.

I don't even want to imagine.

[HoustonIsHome]

DFW has always had a diversified economy, so it is more stable.

That is untrue. Dallas had a less diversified economy for most of its existence. Its not until maybe the 70s when the area started to unify and resourses and manpower started to pool that that area became more diversified.

The recent growth in major industries such as communications, technology, etc are relatively recent. Dallas grew on one factor and that was its location. Its other industries such as banking/finance, etc were all small.

Houston area, for almost all of its existence has been a major player in shipping, oil and gas, and agriculture. In addition to that it shared similar smaller industries with Dallas (banking/ finance, distribution, ect). So Houston had the edge in diversity up until the 70s when oil really stated to overshadow everything else in Houston while the combined strength of combining with FW pooled industries together abd created a more diversified north texas.

I think population stats would support that. San Antonio, Austin, Dallas and even FW at points were all larger than Houston, but starting around 1900 Houston started gaining steam, it passed all others somewhere around the 1920s And didn't slow down until the bust of the 1980s when it was passed by the recently created CSA of DFW. I think the growth in the medical and distribution sector has account for a large portion of Houston's growth in the 2000s and we are steadily keeping on with a more well rounded economy.

I think if we continue expanding our ports and create more distribution centers and develop the east side of the metro we will weather a drop in the energy sector. Houston, although it is ahead of DFW and SA in education is still lacking in the education/ biotech/ pharmaceutical department.

Houston has the bones to slap the meat on, while DFW's success will forever be tied to its location. The center of US population has been steadily pushing in the direction of DFW. Its ability to reach x number of people in y number of time accounts for the massive growth on its airport and distribution industry. Just like Chicago, just like Atlanta.

[mollusk]

While the common complaint is trains, I noted a lack of a real farmer's market (much less one located downtown) as part of the "missing" things.

 

Tige, go behind Canino's sometime - that's a real, live farmer's market, open daily, with all sorts of things you just don't see in standard supermarkets, and an amazing assortment of taco trucks.  It's just not real well known, or particularly visible.

 

It would be nice if it were on a rail line, though. 

[IronTiger]

Tige, go behind Canino's sometime - that's a real, live farmer's market, open daily, with all sorts of things you just don't see in standard supermarkets, and an amazing assortment of taco trucks.  It's just not real well known, or particularly visible.

 

It would be nice if it were on a rail line, though. 

Yes, that was mentioned in the other thread. It's not the fact that there's no farmer's market at all in Houston (there is, I'd be horrified if there wasn't), just a big, multi-purpose one located downtown like many cities do have. It's all about not just what a city has, but the quality of it. If you count Galveston as part of the greater Houston area, then you could say Houston has beaches. But good beaches? Aye, that's another thing.

[Guest Account Number 1]

It's all relative. Some cities would kill to have Houston's bad beaches.

[Sky-guy]

It's all relative. Some cities would kill to have Houston's bad beaches.

You mean Galveston's bad beaches.

[barracuda]

I think population stats would support that. San Antonio, Austin, Dallas and even FW at points were all larger than Houston, but starting around 1900 Houston started gaining steam, it passed all others somewhere around the 1920s And didn't slow down until the bust of the 1980s when it was passed by the recently created CSA of DFW. I think the growth in the medical and distribution sector has account for a large portion of Houston's growth in the 2000s and we are steadily keeping on with a more well rounded economy.

 

 

Bad beaches or not, I would add Galveston to that list. Its population was larger than Houston until around 1900, and it was the major commercial and trading center of Texas until the 1900 hurricane wiped most of the city away.

Edited October 2, 2014 by barracuda

[jgriff]

The Saudis are saying "Get use to lower oil prices". This is not good news for Houston.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/13/us-oil-saudi-policy-idUSKCN0I201Y20141013