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Texas May Add 30 Million More Residents By 2050


Dariusb

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I found this article interesting even though it's a yr old. It said that by 2050 the DFW metro region could have over 16 million and that metro Houston could be 14.9 million. My question is do you think this is possible or not? I've seen other projections putting the DFW metro at 11 million and metro Houston at 10 million or just below that which I think is more realistic.

 

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/26188-texas-will-need-10.5-million-new-housing-units-by-2050

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At the most-recent growth rate (2012-2013) (2.2%), the Houston metro would pass 10 Million in 2035 and would hit 14.1 MIllion in 2050. 

 

Extrapolating D-FW's growth rate (1.6%) forward, it would pass 11 Million in 2044.  DFW would not pass 10 Million until 2038 (3 years after Houston).  Houston metro would pass the population of DFW metro in 2026.  DFW's 2050 population would only be 12.25 Million.

 

Using 2010-2013 growth rates (6.13% for Houston; 5.55% for DFW), the results are as follows:

 

Houston would pass 10 Million in approximately 2037.  DFW in approximately 2036.

2050 populations would be about 13.1 Million for Houston and about 13.2 Million for DFW.

 

I'm curious what the study based its projections on.   In order to achieve the projections in the article, Houston would have to increase its growth rate to 2.35% per year.  DFW would have to increase their growth rate from its current 1.6% per year to 2.47%

Edited by Houston19514
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either way it scares the hell out of me. i was sitting in traffic today thinking about these numbers.. i too have often heard Houston is supposed to have 10 million people by 2040 or so, and i just dont see how our streets in the core can handle the additional traffic.. we need alternate modes of transit, and/or some creative reworking of vehicle routes.

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either way it scares the hell out of me. i was sitting in traffic today thinking about these numbers.. i too have often heard Houston is supposed to have 10 million people by 2040 or so, and i just dont see how our streets in the core can handle the additional traffic.. we need alternate modes of transit, and/or some creative reworking of vehicle routes.

 

I've been thinking the same thing. To use an oft-stated term on this website, there has to be some sort of "critical mass" where traffic problems just can't be left to fester without some more provocative reworking of infrastructure. Besides Dallas, I can't think of another city in the world (especially out of the megaopolises with populations over 10 million) that relies on the automobile like Houston does. Makes me wonder if we're entering uncharted territory when it comes to transportation.

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either way it scares the hell out of me. i was sitting in traffic today thinking about these numbers.. i too have often heard Houston is supposed to have 10 million people by 2040 or so, and i just dont see how our streets in the core can handle the additional traffic.. we need alternate modes of transit, and/or some creative reworking of vehicle routes.

 

Alternate modes are already under study (commuter rail) or underway (light rail and BRT).  I'm sure they will keep developing far into the future.  However, I suspect much of the new population will end up spread out in the edge cities so while the core will certainly densify, as it has been doing, it won't be like every one or even nearly every one of those new residents will be living inside the loop.  I know some may hate to hear this, but what's going to be important in the future is efficient interconnectivity of the edge cities and downtown.  That above all, is going to mean more and better roads.

 

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I've been thinking the same thing. To use an oft-stated term on this website, there has to be some sort of "critical mass" where traffic problems just can't be left to fester without some more provocative reworking of infrastructure. Besides Dallas, I can't think of another city in the world (especially out of the megaopolises with populations over 10 million) that relies on the automobile like Houston does. Makes me wonder if we're entering uncharted territory when it comes to transportation.

 

Los Angeles.  Unfortunately, it's not pretty.  I think our hope would have to be that self-driving cars really do 3x the carrying capacity of freeways, and maybe more if uber/lyft-like services can create instantaneous car pools - for example 3 people in Midtown can instantly share a single car to work on the west side in the Energy Corridor.

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Los Angeles.  Unfortunately, it's not pretty.  I think our hope would have to be that self-driving cars really do 3x the carrying capacity of freeways, and maybe more if uber/lyft-like services can create instantaneous car pools - for example 3 people in Midtown can instantly share a single car to work on the west side in the Energy Corridor.

 

That makes me wonder if uber/lyft will be early adopters of driverless cars.  Perhaps having them circle or park in selected areas awaitng ride requests.  Something like that could certainly make living car-free inside the city more convenient.

 

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That makes me wonder if uber/lyft will be early adopters of driverless cars.  Perhaps having them circle or park in selected areas awaitng ride requests.  Something like that could certainly make living car-free inside the city more convenient.

 

 

I would think, generally speaking, that as soon as it drops its passenger off, it already has another pick-up to head towards, so it would almost never be idle.  It also might have predictive algorithms that say the most likely part of town for the next pick up and just head over there, expecting to get a new pick up order by the time it arrived.  If that wasn't the case, I'd guess they'd cut deals with local parking lots for temporary holding.  

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Great news!  More people = more work for the design & construction community.  I'll assume that by 2050 we'll have a slew of new - tall buildings all over the Inner Loop.

 

Should be interesting to see the town then, I mean we'll be arguing to preserve the Inn at the Ballpark aka The Westin, or the currently "new" Embassy Suits by Discover Green.

 

By 2050 One Shell Plaza will be right around 80 years old.  The Chrysler Building in NYC will 122 as will the Gulf Building here in Houston.  Fascinating!

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At the most-recent growth rate (2012-2013) (2.2%), the Houston metro would pass 10 Million in 2035 and would hit 14.1 MIllion in 2050. 

 

Extrapolating D-FW's growth rate (1.6%) forward, it would pass 11 Million in 2044.  DFW would not pass 10 Million until 2038 (3 years after Houston).  Houston metro would pass the population of DFW metro in 2026.  DFW's 2050 population would only be 12.25 Million.

 

Using 2010-2013 growth rates (6.13% for Houston; 5.55% for DFW), the results are as follows:

 

Houston would pass 10 Million in approximately 2037.  DFW in approximately 2036.

2050 populations would be about 13.1 Million for Houston and about 13.2 Million for DFW.

 

I'm curious what the study based its projections on.   In order to achieve the projections in the article, Houston would have to increase its growth rate to 2.35% per year.  DFW would have to increase their growth rate from its current 1.6% per year to 2.47%

Would be great to pass DFW's population on the 100 year anniversary of Houston passing Dallas the most populous city in Texas.

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