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Houston falls to No. 10 on forecast growth

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Houston dropped down Forbes’ fastest-growing cities list this year, trailing Austin and Dallas.

Last year, those three Texas markets swept the top spots. This year, Austin ranks No. 1 for the fourth year in a row, and Dallas slipped only one spot. However, Houston tumbled to the No. 10 spot. Here are the top five:

  1. Austin
  2. Raleigh, N.C.
  3. Phoenix
  4. Dallas
  5. Salt Lake City

Florida and Texas each have four cities on the top 20 list, with San Antonio taking the No. 20 spot. Forbes cites Texas’ strong population growth, unemployment rate under 6 percent, business-friendly regulatory environment, lack of state income tax and highly educated labor market for its strong showing.

Forbes' analysis of the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas was based on six metrics, including estimated rates of population growth for 2013 and 2014, job growth for 2013 and gross metropolitan product growth for 2013. Houston’s estimated population growth rate was 1.82 percent.

 

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2014/02/14/is-houston-losing-its-mojo-bayou-city-falls-on.html

 

What I really don't like about this article is that it doesn't explain why there was a drop. Has the growth rate simply increased faster in those cities than Houston? Is there an actual concern here? So many unanswered questions even after reading the Forbes report as well.

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They base these on % rates. So if Austin has around 2,000,000 people in its metro area and grows by 2.5%, it comes out as a net population increase of 50,000.

If Houston has a metro population of around 6,000,000 people and grows by 1.82%, it comes out as a net population increase of 109,200. So in summary, whenever a Forbes article is talking about "fastest" growing metros and is using percentage rates as a measure, "fast" means growth relative to size as opposed to growth overall.

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^  This is just another bogus list whose purpose is to sell magazines/drive traffic to their website.  Note that to create this list of "fastest-growing cities", they "rated" cities on six metrics: 

 

1. estimated rate of population growth - 2013

2. estimated rate of population growth - 2014

3. year-over-year job growth for 2013

4. rate of gross metro product growth for 2013

5. federal unemployment data

6. median salaries for local college-educated workers.

 

So we end up with a nonsensical mish-mash of population growth, economic growth and other random economic data.  And to make it worse, they don't show the numbers.  Forbes used to be a worthwhile publication.  Not so much any more.

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Yeah, while I do take note when these articles are mentioned, I really don't take them seriously because the statistics they use to make their banner pronouncements are almost always vague and the real underlying meaning is not consistent from year to year.  I.e., they spin the headlines annually such that I have no faith in the so-called "changes" in ranking from year to year.

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so, my take on it is that, they sow such misinformation amongst the working-class stiffs (like me) and woe be unto the 1-percenters who allocate their investments based on similar fictional interpretations.

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Wrong. Percentages measure relatively. Not absolutes. That is the best way to measure growth here.

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I remember all the talk about Atlanta, Phoenix, Las Vegas and DFW growing at lighting speed early last decade. I remember talk about DFW increasing the gap between then and us. I remember talk of Atl passing us up in population.

The census results came out and it turned out that Houston:

1. Outgrew all 4 of those metropolitan areas to become the fastest growing

2. Decreased DFWs edge in population

3. Increased our edge in population over ATL

These estimates are way too prone to error. I think people follow the jobs and if our job growth continues for another two or three years we will indeed be at the top again.

I think that the port expansion will carry us on even if energy related jobs taper off.

Basing growth off of the past is kinda silly as growth is never linear.

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I'm tempted to say this article is nothing but some kind of marketing fluff.

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I thought this was telling and good news for Houston

 

A recent Campus Philly/Philadelphia Magazine survey asked 1,235 Millennials, ages 18-35, what would cause them to leave the city. Job opportunity or absence thereof was at the top of the list (47.4%).

 

 

https://www.centercityphila.org/docs/CCR14_housing.pdf

 

That's a huge percentage. Just shows while Houston should continue to improve on the quality of life things, producing jobs is the most important thing.

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Plus since they always go by percentage growth, we have a harder time breaking into the very top. And speaking of stats, since the "Dallas Metroplex" includes Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Etc. we should include Galveston, Conroe, and Beaumont in ours.

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Plus since they always go by percentage growth, we have a harder time breaking into the very top. And speaking of stats, since the "Dallas Metroplex" includes Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Etc. we should include Galveston, Conroe, and Beaumont in ours.

Galveston and Conroe are considered as part of the Houston metro area. Kind of a stretch to include Beaumont though.

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