Texas Central Project

[Sparrow]

Did we already know the TCP/TCR has reached an agreement with Matthews Southwest to serve as the development partner of their Dallas station?

[102IAHexpress]

Thanks cspwal. I'll give that a read.

 

Someone mentioned eminent domain for airports earlier. Do we know if eminent domain has ever been used in a local private airport? Like the Sugar Land airport for example?

 

Thanks.

[BigFootsSocks]

Also take a look at Texas Senate Bill 1601 which would strip firms developing high-speed rail projects from eminent domain authority. It's already been passed in the texas transpiration committee. People will fight this. Landowners, politicians, etc. Lets not be naïve here.

Screw it I'm breaking my own rule; this bill did not get any further and if you knew literally anything about Texas politics, you would know that the current Legislation has already ended for the next TWO YEARS.

So yeah. There's that.

Edited August 3, 2015 by BigFootsSocks

[102IAHexpress]

So you are saying that because the legislature is not in session next year, our representatives/land owners/ and politicians up for election will just "forget" about it? They don't have long term opposition plan? Is that what you're saying?

 

Just for the record, if this is actually built only with private funds, then i'm all for it. But has there ever been, anywhere in the world, a HSR line that has not received government subsidies?

 

Thanks.

[BigFootsSocks]

So you are saying that because the legislature is not in session next year, our representatives/land owners/ and politicians up for election will just "forget" about it? They don't have long term opposition plan? Is that what you're saying?

Just for the record, if this is actually built only with private funds, then i'm all for it. But has there ever been, anywhere in the world, a HSR line that has not received government subsidies?

Thanks.

Your argument was that the bill would be a shot in the knee for HSR; the fact that the bill did not pass means the next time it has even remotely a chance of passing (it won't; Governor Abbott will not allow it to pass, as well as the other committees) is in two years. By that time, TCR will be full speed ahead in development and construction.

So to refute your pint, no, the bill has no chance of stopping this because it didn't in the most recent legislature. I will not answer your other questions because they have nothing to do with the initial point I addressed and are simply just easy bait questions.

Peace.

[august948]

Lets not be naive here. Educate yourself on Eminent Domain and what it entails. Oil and Gas use it. Utilities use it. Nobody ever gives a crap when they do it, but then all the sudden a railroad might use and then people have a problem.

Just be honest and say you haven't been reading the thread. I ask you look at it more thoroughly as this very question has been answered before. about 85-90% at the end of the day will be done through the private sector or through land swooping. The other 10% will be where eminent domain might be used to fill in the gaps. TCR isn't hiding this either. Robert Eckels (a former Judge btw) has stated that eminent domain would be used, but only as a last resort.

Finally while this is privately funded it still public transportation! Trains by their very nature are public transportation. Airlines are run by private companies (though subsidized by the government to some extent), but its still "public transport" because its not an individual means of transportation and instead or traveling with others.

 

So lets not just take a single buzzword(s) and then all the sudden rush to conclusions. Use your brain.

 

Robert Eckels is a former County Judge of Harris County.  Though that position has the title of "Judge", it is in fact the executive head for the County government.  It's not a judicial position.  Robert Eckels is no more a judge than his successor Ed Emmett is.

 

[cspwal]

Did we already know the TCP/TCR has reached an agreement with Matthews Southwest to serve as the development partner of their Dallas station?

 

I hadn't heard about that...source?

[cspwal]

Meanwhile, the actually government funded project is moving towards a Council vote

http://offthekuff.com/wp/?p=68654 

 

 

 

LSRD has been working with municipalities to form Transportation Infrastructure Zones (TIZ) unique to each city. The zone would establish a perimeter around each station – there are five proposed so far in San Antonio – and a percentage of property tax increases within the zone would go directly towards LSRD’s operation and maintenance costs.

 

It's like a TIRZ, but for trains.  At 16 stations, I doubt that there will be any sort of high speed connection directly from San Antonio, to Austin

[BigFootsSocks]

I think that's the Lone Star line

[Sparrow]

I hadn't heard about that...source?

 

Texas Central's website. "Dallas Station Locations".

[BigFootsSocks]

So my company had a "lunch & learn" webinar today about this project (not sure if it was through TCR or not) but according to a coworker, the land purchases between the line are much further along than we thought...

[Visitor]

What was the purpose of the webinar? Any additional details about the current state? I know the environmental study findings are due soon.

[BigFootsSocks]

Basically just an information webinar for project developments in the Houston/Harris County area.

[BigFootsSocks]

http://www.dallasnews.com/news/community-news/collin-county/headlines/20150731-sounding-off-collin-county-readers-react-to-plans-for-high-speed-train-connecting-dallas-and-houston.ece

 

Wow, that "nearly avoided a death blow" is so incredibly off it's hilarious. 

 

For the most part though, those responses that are neutral or positive are good, but the people who disapprove of it are so incredibly wrong in their assertions it's hilarious. Landowners won't get anything out of this? Well, if you don't include the enormous amount of money they get for their land, or the tax dollars that go towards their rural counties...then yeah it's a horrible idea

 

Then there are just the crazies.

[mollusk]

/\ And it's Collin County (adjacent to Dallas County to the north), which isn't on the route and which is similar to the less rural part of Montgomery County in demographics and politics.  It's amazing that they found anyone to speak well of it.

[MaxConcrete]

The Dallas Observer has a lengthy report on the project

 

http://www.dallasobserver.com/news/on-the-line-will-a-dallas-to-houston-bullet-train-revolutionize-texas-7501328

 

There's not much new "news" in the report. The report mentions the already-known price tag of $10-12 billion, and says no decision has been made about the inner loop alignment but suggests that the I-10 alignment is preferred.

"Eckels says they're hoping to run the line into the northwest side of Houston and then to move along the Interstate 10 corridor into downtown Houston. It's still unclear where the line will actually go."

The one item in the report which piqued my interest was the mention that Texas Central estimates 12,000 passengers per day.

They quoted one source who expects an average cost of $50-60 per ticket

"Baruch Feigenbaum, a Reason Foundation analyst who supports Texas Central despite his skepticism of most U.S. high-speed rail projects, expects the company to charge between $50 and $60 per ticket, but Feigenbaum's calculations are based on the company owning and developing the land around the stations. Otherwise the fares will have to be significantly higher."

 

However, $50-60 seems low to me, especially since I just checked the Southwest.com site and the one-way price is $218 for flights within a week and the lowest fare I spotted for advanced booking was $79 one way.

I think $100 is a more reasonable average revenue per passenger-trip, and a higher number (maybe $110 or $120) is potentially achievable.

HCTRA has highly rated bonds, and their annual statement reports that 2012 refunding bonds were in the range of 2-5% interest. One issue was $3.26%. As a risky proposition, I would expect the interest rate for the rail project to be closer to 5%, maybe even more.

The numbers below assume a $10 billion price tag (probably low, $12B more likely). So you can see that it is possible to cover the interest with fares, but it requires some favorable conditions and will be greatly helped if ridership exceeds 12,000 passengers/day.

3% interest rate, $50 average fare
$300 million interest payment, $219 million in annual revenue for 12K passengers per day

3% interest rate, $75 average fare
$300 million interest payment, $329 million in revenue

4% interest rate, $75 average fare
$400 million interest payment, $329 million in revenue

4% interest rate, $100 average fare
$400 million interest payment, $438 million in revenue

5% interest rate, $100 average fare
$500 million interest payment, $438 million in revenue

 

5% interest rate, $120 average fare
$500 million interest payment, $527 million in revenue

 

Of course, there will be many more expenses than just interest, including 700 to 1,500 permanent workers which should be at least $50 million per year. Interest + principle payments would also likely start out low and then rise over time, unlike most home mortgages which are a fixed price over the entire loan life. So the interest payment in early years would probably be less than the nominal interest rate.

These numbers suggest that the project is financially marginal, and it needs a low interest rate to proceed. It also needs a good revenue per passenger ($100 or more) also really needs more than 12,000 passengers per day. If it does get strong ridership, say 20,000 riders per day at around $100 per ticket, then it would be a big success.


 

Edited August 21, 2015 by MaxConcrete

[BigFootsSocks]

I do not want to even begin to try to analyze what you did a great job of writing, simply because my ignorance on finances would show all too quickly, unfortunately. That being said, from what I understand, you are assuming the tickets for one-way would be $50-60. Can we not assume that a majority (75% at least?) would take the train back within a week of their arrival at either station? What would that look like instead of just the $50-60 range?

 

And as an aside, (alliteration!) if we're to assume multiple station's at either end, we can assume that some Houstonians would take a train from Cypress to Downtown at a lower fare cost. What that could be, is anyone's guess.

[BigFootsSocks]

So the Houston Press has almost the exact same tear-jerker story as the one you posted. 

 

"but-but-but-but I'm more important than the millions of people in the two cities!"

 

http://www.houstonpress.com/news/on-the-line-will-the-houston-dallas-bullet-train-revolutionize-texas-or-divide-it-forever-7679365

[cspwal]

 

 

Some Houston officials even sent letters opposing the bullet train to the Federal Rail Administration.

 

smh

[Houston19514]

smh

 

I wouldn't put too much stock in anything the Houston Press reports.  Who are the Houston officials who supposedly sent letters to the FRA?  What did the letters say?  

[Triton]

Who are the Houston officials who supposedly sent letters to the FRA?  What did the letters say?  

 

The letters said "Sign me up for Ashley Madison." .... oh whoops, maybe these weren't the same Houston officials. 

[Sparrow]

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2015/8/21/north-texas-inches-closer-to-getting-high-speed-rail-lines/

 

One small step closer to a Fort Worth to Houston HSR line.

 

"Texas Central has proposed station locations that would facilitate further connectivity, ultimately allowing for Fort Worth/Arlington to Houston high speed rail travel if both projects move through funding and construction."

[curbur]

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2015/8/21/north-texas-inches-closer-to-getting-high-speed-rail-lines/

 

One small step closer to a Fort Worth to Houston HSR line.

 

"Texas Central has proposed station locations that would facilitate further connectivity, ultimately allowing for Fort Worth/Arlington to Houston high speed rail travel if both projects move through funding and construction."

 

Wouldn't it be more economical to build a link from Ft. Worth to Dallas, and then on to Houston? Or are they scrapping the proposed station locations south of DT Dallas?

[cspwal]

I think that's what they're doing, the trains to ft worth just wouldn't stop in dallas

[BigFootsSocks]

Trying to discuss HSR, especially this one, on /n/ is the muster I starting experience ever. God those people are so phuking stupid.

[IronTiger]

Trying to discuss HSR, especially this one, on /n/ is the muster I starting experience ever. God those people are so phuking stupid.

Ummmmmm...it's 4chan, right? What did you expect other than an exercise in futility?

[BigFootsSocks]

The smaller boards are usually a bit more tame.

[jgriff]

You can't hijack a train and run it into a building which means that you can't make it a weapon. The remote advanced control / monitoring required to operate a HSR system (like a mini-mission control) would also be able to disable the train remotely. So to answer your question: YES. There are many reasons to believe that I'm not going to have to go through the same hurdles as a plain.

 

It's kind of a misleading article. They come to a conclusion that seems to be the opposite of the title. 

 

http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2015/08/24/trains-could-soon-see-airport-level-security/

Edited August 25, 2015 by jgriff

[Luminare]

Field trip to Germany? Japan? France? Anywhere with High Speed Rail anyone? All aboard. No security checkpoints like in airports. Its that simple lol

[BigFootsSocks]

Sweeeeeet: http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2015/08/25/feds-finalize-bullet-train-s-corridor-between.html