Texas Central Project

[SMF]

 

Yes, its going to be called "The Ebola Train"

 

Classy.

[BigFootsSocks]

Yes, its going to be called "The Ebola Train"

[BigFootsSocks]

Do folks really beleive that this rail route will be built this time around?

What makes this time different than any prior time in the last 30 years? I have seen proposal after proposal. Is this something real? How can you tell?

Yes. As what has been stated recently before many times, Southwest, which was the original major roadblock to the HSR from te 89's, is neutral on this project.

There is also significant support from the largest and best HSR company in the world, Japan Central Railway. We have significant former government officials running the show, and it's already been confirmed that one of Japan's biggest banks is providing a large chunk of the cost.

This being a private juncture versus a federal one like in California will do well to propel forward the project.

[UtterlyUrban]

Yes. As what has been stated recently before many times, Southwest, which was the original major roadblock to the HSR from te 89's, is neutral on this project.

There is also significant support from the largest and best HSR company in the world, Japan Central Railway. We have significant former government officials running the show, and it's already been confirmed that one of Japan's biggest banks is providing a large chunk of the cost.

This being a private juncture versus a federal one like in California will do well to propel forward the project.

I certainly hope that you are right. I would love to have HSR spanning the state - and the nation - one day. I am a huge supporter.

But, if history is any guide, I don't believe this will be built. There will be bluster, and talk, and jawboning, and promises of big money backers, and, and, and. Then, years will go by. Then a decade. And in end, nothing.

Gosh, I hope you prove me wrong. I really hope that is will be built. We shall see.

[BigFootsSocks]

What makes you think it won't besides the past attempts? I understand what you mean, but I feel like this project has some serious weight behind it. JR Central is Japan's largest (and oldest) rail company and is currently working on their nations first maglev system. This isn't some flashy startup, these guys know their shit.

I have faith in this. As long as it takes to get to Dallas by car and air thanks to TSA, a 90 minute ride for the 10,000+ that travel between the two cities each work would seem like a very welcome addition.

I know this doesn't mean much but it's also got the support of DFW and Houston mayors as well as Governor Perry. And because of this HSR project, many other federal investigations have launched to connect Dallas to Ft Worth, San Antonio to Dallas thru Austin, and many others.

[IronTiger]

There was a thread on TexAgs about the new probability that it wouldn't go through CS because they don't think it will reach the numbers they want. Before you cry "well, I could have told you that", someone did number crunching and this is what he turned out:

The N700 Bullet train on which the TX system is based has a capacity between 546 (8 car configuration) and 1,323 (16 car configuration) passengers. With 34 trips each way each day there is enough capacity to move between 17,816 to 44,982 passengers PER DAY. Over the course of a year (accounting for half the number of runs on Sat & Sun) we can estimate capacity to move between 5 and 14 MILLION people riding the train each year? That seems like quite a lot of demand just between two cities. Am I alone here?

Capacity (8 cars)

524 passengers/trip

x34 round trips/day

=17,816 passengers/day

x 6 days / week*

=106,896 passengers/week

x52 weeks/year

=5,558,592 passengers/year

Capacity (16 cars)

1,323 passengers/trip

x34 round trips/day

=44,982 passengers/day

x 6 days / week*

=269,892 passengers/week

x52 weeks/year

=14,034,384 passengers/year

* 6 days a week used to account for reduced runs on Sat & Sun

Obviously, it's not going to be 100% capacity, but does 45,000 passengers a day sound at all realistic?

[BigFootsSocks]

How many people fly between the two cities each day/week?

[IronTiger]

How many people fly between the two cities each day/week?

One source I got that 130k people flew from Dallas to Houston in 2009. Assuming that the number is equal to that for Houston is equal, then that's 260k passengers a year, which if we take out Sundays, that would be about 830 people round trip per day. I don't know what fares are, but it's likely not going to be very cheap. Either the HSR needs 50 TIMES more passengers to reach capacity or its content at being at 2% capacity at a consistent basis. And that's assuming everyone on planes takes the rail, but also assuming that no one else will ride it, so it will likely never go past 5%. That looks awful on paper, of course, because it is.

Edited October 15, 2014 by IronTiger

[BigFootsSocks]

Shouldn't we assume that faster travel between the cities would INCREASE the amount of people moving as well? I'm sure they're aware of this and are banking on that exact fact.

[Sparrow]

One source I got that 130k people flew from Dallas to Houston in 2009. Assuming that the number is equal to that for Houston is equal, then that's 260k passengers a year, which if we take out Sundays, that would be about 830 people round trip per day. I don't know what fares are, but it's likely not going to be very cheap. Either the HSR needs 50 TIMES more passengers to reach capacity or its content at being at 2% capacity at a consistent basis. And that's assuming everyone on planes takes the rail, but also assuming that no one else will ride it, so it will likely never go past 5%. That looks awful on paper, of course, because it is.

 

#1: Check your info again. Your own source shows 131k people flew from DFW to HOU in 2009. What about DAL--HOU, DAL--IAH, and DFW--IAH? Fact check please. Garbage in, garbage out.

 

#2: Let's for just a brief moment assume that someone did a bit of data analysis when studying between which city pair in the US to build their technology, and came up with a slightly better number than 2-5% ridership, especially when contemplating spending upwards of $10B.

[citykid09]

If the price is low enough and the speed high enough, I could see a lot of people taking this for day trips. A few stop in Bryan a day I could also see working. Imagine being able to move to the Bryan/CS area and still be able to keep your job in Downtown or South Houston. There is already a sizable amount of people that commute to and from Houston to BCS each day already. You could even work in Dallas and live in BCS or Houston or so many other combinations. And you would not have to look at the 90 minute commute from Houston to Dallas as waisted time because you could get work done while sitting there. The possabilities are exciting!

 

Does anyone know how long the trip from Houston to BCS would take? I know they said that BCS won't get a stop now (hopefully this changes), but just wondering.

Edited October 15, 2014 by citykid09

[BigFootsSocks]

#1: Check your info again. Your own source shows 131k people flew from DFW to HOU in 2009. What about DAL--HOU, DAL--IAH, and DFW--IAH? Fact check please. Garbage in, garbage out.

#2: Let's for just a brief moment assume that someone did a bit of data analysis when studying between which city pair in the US to build their technology, and came up with a slightly better number than 2-5% ridership, especially when contemplating spending upwards of $10B.

Oh wow so that's only counting flights from one city. We're missing the other flights AND car/bus trips too.

[UtterlyUrban]

What makes you think it won't besides the past attempts?

Past attempts aside.....

This project faces huge issues:

1) billions and billions and billions of bucks need to be raised and funded. That is nowhere near a sure thing regardless of the current players.

2) environmental impact studies could drag on and on and on and possibly kill the project with delays (which could include court cases, etc)

3) uncertain economics

4) new federal gov regulations need to be promulgated.

5) more..... More.... More.....

Oh, and a five year consteuction schedule?

There are all sorts issues. I truly hope that this project overcomes them all but, I am not sanguine as to the prospect.

Look at the Keystone pipeline (yes, it crosses state boarders so it is a bit different)..... KNOWN economics have allowed big bucks to be able to likely fund it but environmental studies and politics has (so far) stalled it.

God, I hope we can build this though!

Edited October 15, 2014 by UtterlyUrban

[Sparrow]

^which still allows the rumored CStat station to be true.

 

I'd lean more towards between Huntsville and Bryan-College Station if venturing a guess at a possible Aggie area station.

 

Anyone realize the Japanese meaning of the name of the town about half way along 30 where the rail line crosses? It's rather symbolic if you think culturally about it. Pure speculation, but it'd only be fitting to have a clean, new station built here with the birth of a new city around it.

Edited October 15, 2014 by Sparrow

[lithiumaneurysm]

Past attempts aside.....

This project faces huge issues:

1) billions and billions and billions of bucks need to be raised and funded. That is nowhere near a sure thing regardless of the current players.

2) environmental impact studies could drag on and on and on and possibly kill the project with delays (which could include court cases, etc)

3) uncertain economics

4) new federal gov regulations need to be promulgated.

5) more..... More.... More.....

Oh, and a five year consteuction schedule?

There are all sorts issues. I truly hope that this project overcomes them all but, I am not sanguine as to the prospect.

Look at the Keystone pipeline (yes, it crosses state boarders so it is a bit different)..... KNOWN economics have allowed big bucks to be able to likely fund it but environmental studies and politics has (so far) stalled it.

God, I hope we can build this though!

 

I doubt politics will that much of a role -- certainly not to the extent that has delayed Keystone XL for so many years. That was the perfect symbolic issue to divide Democrats and Republicans. In contrast, I really don't see what serious political divides could form over this project. Republicans like it because it stands in contrast to California's expensive government-funded initiative and it's a symbol of Texas's economic strength; Democrats like it because it's high-speed rail. I think this project has a lot more going for it than people give it credit for. While the funding details aren't clear, many factors are lining up and there's a surprising amount of political interest from both sides of the aisle.

[kbates2]

I still think that adding the extra time for a College Station stop takes away from the additional riders making more trips between Dallas and Houston.  We need to connect the big urban centers in Texas - Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio.  We don't need to slow down the routes with stops in towns.

[Triton]

Yes, its going to be called "The Ebola Train"

 

The Ebola Express.

[BigFootsSocks]

I still think that adding the extra time for a College Station stop takes away from the additional riders making more trips between Dallas and Houston. We need to connect the big urban centers in Texas - Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio. We don't need to slow down the routes with stops in towns.

IMO this is gonna be their initial phase and one day connect the small cities in between like Europe

[IronTiger]

Oh wow so that's only counting flights from one city. We're missing the other flights AND car/bus trips too.

Yes, it is hard to get data from that. But people in a car or bus aren't likely going to be riding the train, because I have a feeling that it's going to be on a price comparable to an airplane--no way are you going to get a pass for $5, $10, or even $20.

[BigFootsSocks]

Why wouldn't people take it instead of driving? That doesn't make sense. A majority of the travel is for work so instead of taking a couple days during the week to go up & back and missing work, now all you have to do is catch the train in the morning and be home for supper.

How is there data for flights leaving one city but not the other? Counting trips is something TXDOT has done for years so idk if there's no way to find that out either

[DNAguy]

I think ppl are talking past each other here. I don't think that someone who lives in katy and drives downtown for work is going to replace that commute with a high speed train. I mean its too expensive. Bryan-CS isn't a huge draw as far as a community (sorry) that ppl would be willing to pay 40-100 bucks a day to live there & commute to Houston. Yes there might be some ppl who do this, but its probably not worth even counting.

What I do think this would do is make a 'business commuter' and draw College Station closer into Houston's economic orbit. The train lets a MD Anderson researcher ALSO do research at A&M. Medical center to CS in less than an hour without a car is now possible. An executive MBA during evenings is now a possibility for those willing to pay the premium for a main campus one vs a houston 'branch'.

[IronTiger]

Why wouldn't people take it instead of driving?

Probably the same people who'd rather take a car instead of riding the light rail/mass transit. Remember, wherever the HSR stop actually is, there needs to be parking, which will inevitably drive up the cost even further. If you lived along the Interstate 45 corridor, why would you go out of your way to stop at the Uptown station (which from the sounds of it is where they want to put it) when you could just keep driving and not have to pay any additional tickets?

That's why airplane riders are the primary demographic here--they're already willing to go a bit of the way and pay for a plane ticket and parking for a bump in getting there faster.

Edited October 17, 2014 by IronTiger

[Sparrow]

Probably the same people who'd rather take a car instead of riding the light rail/mass transit. Remember, wherever the HSR stop actually is, there needs to be parking, which will inevitably drive up the cost even further. If you lived along the Interstate 45 corridor, why would you go out of your way to stop at the Uptown station (which from the sounds of it is where they want to put it) when you could just keep driving and not have to pay any additional tickets?

That's why airplane riders are the primary demographic here--they're already willing to go a bit of the way and pay for a plane ticket and parking for a bump in getting there faster.

 

You are right in that airplane ridership is the HSR primary customer--direct competition. One would think the HSR folks hope to gain near 100% of that market.

 

But also consider that some folks who drive will be willing to pay a little more to get there faster without doing the work themselves. Some folks riding the bus between the two cities will pay a little more to get from here to there. Perhaps the pivotal question will be how much will a ticket cost. SWA has one way for about $85 if you buy in advance. What does "competitive with airfare" exactly mean? Driving will cost (per car, not per person) give or take $18-$36 for just gas with current prices depending upon your mpg. Will HSR come in somewhere in the middle, or does "competitive" really mean "about the same".

 

Also consider some people who would have had zero intent of going to Dallas may now consider the trip because the HSR will provide an easy, relatively cheap option. Induced demand if you will. C'mon, let's be honest here, is there one person on HAIF that won't venture a leisure trip or two up to our neighbor to the north once/if this is built? Houstonians and those in the Metroplex will be curious to see this new-to-us technology. Frankly Dallas and Houston may have a bump in tourism from across the country to see the new high speed rail. Perhaps we'll even see increased tourism from Japan because of their familiarity with the system.

 

As far as parking goes, let's hope transit via cab, light rail, bus, as well as rental car are all options. You are right that otherwise the station parking garage will need to be massive.

[Slick Vik]

You are right in that airplane ridership is the HSR primary customer--direct competition. One would think the HSR folks hope to gain near 100% of that market.

But also consider that some folks who drive will be willing to pay a little more to get there faster without doing the work themselves. Some folks riding the bus between the two cities will pay a little more to get from here to there. Perhaps the pivotal question will be how much will a ticket cost. SWA has one way for about $85 if you buy in advance. What does "competitive with airfare" exactly mean? Driving will cost (per car, not per person) give or take $18-$36 for just gas with current prices depending upon your mpg. Will HSR come in somewhere in the middle, or does "competitive" really mean "about the same".

Also consider some people who would have had zero intent of going to Dallas may now consider the trip because the HSR will provide an easy, relatively cheap option. Induced demand if you will. C'mon, let's be honest here, is there one person on HAIF that won't venture a leisure trip or two up to our neighbor to the north once/if this is built? Houstonians and those in the Metroplex will be curious to see this new-to-us technology. Frankly Dallas and Houston may have a bump in tourism from across the country to see the new high speed rail. Perhaps we'll even see increased tourism from Japan because of their familiarity with the system.

As far as parking goes, let's hope transit via cab, light rail, bus, as well as rental car are all options. You are right that otherwise the station parking garage will need to be massive.

People from japan have a lot of other countries they could go to see high speed rail as well.

[Sparrow]

People from japan have a lot of other countries they could go to see high speed rail as well.

 

They wouldn't be coming to see the rail system, they would come because they are familiar with the exact same system in their own country.

[Sparrow]

TCR initially had 9 alignments for the Dallas to Houston route they were screening and have reduced that down to two feasible alternatives that are highest ranked.

[BigFootsSocks]

Probably the same people who'd rather take a car instead of riding the light rail/mass transit. Remember, wherever the HSR stop actually is, there needs to be parking, which will inevitably drive up the cost even further. If you lived along the Interstate 45 corridor, why would you go out of your way to stop at the Uptown station (which from the sounds of it is where they want to put it) when you could just keep driving and not have to pay any additional tickets?

That's why airplane riders are the primary demographic here--they're already willing to go a bit of the way and pay for a plane ticket and parking for a bump in getting there faster.

So how is what you're saying any different than the people that fly? And what DNAGuy said, yeah people will have to drive to it but they're drivingg anyway regardless of whether they drive or fly.

Of course there will be a fee for parking but if these are going to be mostly day trips it shouldn't be more than airport parking.

If people in the Woodlands are going to Dallas then sure they can drive but that's 4 hours of driving plus a full tank. So there and back would be 8+ hrs and about $150 worth of gas, which is definitely longer and more than what a plane ticket is to Dallas. Since the tickets are going to be "priced competitively with airlines" the HSR tickets will be around that area too.

If they're willing to pay a premium for the airline why wouldn't they pay the same if not less for a quicker overall trip? With flying you have to be there at least 2 hours early. I'm sure there will be some similar safety check in system with HSR but not as bad as flying

[Sky-guy]

According to this article, over 50,000 people drive between Houston and Dallas each day and the amount of time to drive from Houston to Dallas (or vise versa) is expected to increase to 7 hours by 2035.

http://transportationblog.dallasnews.com/2014/10/possible-routes-for-dallas-to-houston-high-speed-train-released.html/

[MaxConcrete]

TCR initially had 9 alignments for the Dallas to Houston route they were screening and have reduced that down to two feasible alternatives that are highest ranked.

 

Yes, the web site finally has some actual information and the map of the two feasible alternatives is interesting.

 

https://dallashoustonhsr.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/tcr-board-two-alternatives.jpg

 

I really like the utility alignment option. I was not aware of that high voltage corridor, but it is nearly perfectly straight from Hockley all the way to near Jewett, about 80 miles. The utility alignment is consistent with my earlier posts that the high speed rail route was going to be impossible or difficult along existing roads or rails. The BNSF is noticeably curvier but still remains a finalist. It is possible that the final route will use parts of both corridors.

 

Both corridors are too far away from Bryan/College Station, about 24 (utility) or 29 (BNSF) miles, to be useful to that area. I just can't see the logic of putting a station out in the middle of nowhere halfway between B/CS and Huntsville.

 

And I'm still thinking that the US 290 route out of Houston can be done in conjunction with construction of the mothballed Hempstead toll road, and there could be an arrangement to use the corridor for commuter service.

[BigFootsSocks]

Not everyday, "50,000" more than once a week. Which means if only half of those 50k travel twice a week that's still 75,000 trips. That's pretty damn close for the full capacity number posted above. Once it kicks off there will surely be growth as people realize how much quicker it is to travel.