Jump to content

How big will it get?


Recommended Posts

So, just how big will HTown get? I know the Gulf and the LA border stop it on those directions, but what about the southwest, west, northwest, northeast and north? Houston has continued to grow since it's 1836 inception, and probably will continue to grow for the next 100 yrs. Does anyone have a thought about the probable boundaries that Houston will reach? I have read the statistical data, but I thought it would be fun to hear from real people concerning not only the population growth but also the topographical borders. Any thoughts?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 128
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Houston will continue to get bigger, no doubt. The city will annex more land throughout the century, but I would say that Houston will top out at maybe 800 sq mile or less. (My Opinion) The city of Houston is bigger area-wise than New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles. The reason I point out these cities is because these are the most dense and populated ones than Houston. (Formerly Ahead of Us) So by the time Houston becomes heavly dense and populated, we would have become the true biggest city in the United States.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

It's nice that you learned to put the compass to good use whlle some of us were idly etching the desk with it -- but while Detroit is an absorbing topic, is it stll representative of America's Most Intractable Urban Problem?:

 

http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2013/08/06-suburban-poverty-berube-kneebone-williams

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'll get both density and sprawl. Whether the sprawl is at some point included in the city limits of Houston is up for debate, but the city will naturally become more dense. At some point the city will realize it can't just go on annexing more land, and if they want to increase tax revenues, they will have to facilitate density.

 

But then, maybe they can and will keep annexing land. Conroe, or Sealy being a part of Houston seems fairly far fetched though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Houston will grow by leaps and bounds outward. It's been slow, but the city in the beltway (and even some places out) have been infilling nicely. Before the economy tanked, I truely thought the inner loop was going to be only Townhomes, and not these huge apartment buildings.

 

As for the suburbs, and exurbs, they will continue to blossom and grow outwards as well, eventually (in 2-3 decades), it will be one continues suburban wasteland from huntsville to Galveston, and Sealy to half way to Beaumont. With the Grand Parkway, it will speed this process along.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think a more interesting question is what will happen to the areas like Acres Homes as Houston gets more density. If you look at the aerials, those areas have low density, an dwould seem ripe for redevelopment, However, I understand there are significant land title issues on many of the properties, which makes redevelopment difficult.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was not spelling too wll yesterday.

As a child I innocently perceived the beltway to be the very edge of Houston, because I went no farther on my bicycle than to collect the dewberries that came in on the heavily-disturbed site of the future tollway. Of course development had already overleapt it. Still, geometry lesson aside, the Grand Parkway is more distant than I would have guessed the next loop to be. Houston must have skipped a round of loop-building.

I assume sprawl's image problem will be an artifact of the last century, not something planners need concern themselves with now, with silly talk of density.

But if the image problem does persist, I think it will be because of the interstates. They really are so dispiriting, and not just to aesthetes. I would love for planners to come down from their tower and focus on ways to make sprawl "pretty." Okay, less obnoxious.

In hated Austin, the 130 toll road bypass no one's much using incorporated some features to limit roadside crap. I think there are designated commercial plazas or something.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In hated Austin, the 130 toll road bypass no one's much using incorporated some features to limit roadside crap. I think there are designated commercial plazas or something.

 

To invert the aphorism, perhaps the feature is a bug.

 

Our build whatever wherever approach lets property value be realized quickly, I'd imagine designated plazas come with restrictions, not the least of which being situated next to an unused highway.

 

I always had the impression that around here, roads were built/expanded when public outcry pushed for it, and then the particulars of routing and access points were determined based upon which real estate devolper had the most pull with the planners. Roadside crap was baked in from the get-go.

 

I've lived here my whole life though, so macro scale visual aesthetics are something of a foreign concept.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Houston will continue to get bigger, no doubt. The city will annex more land throughout the century, but I would say that Houston will top out at maybe 800 sq mile or less. (My Opinion) The city of Houston is bigger area-wise than New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles. The reason I point out these cities is because these are the most dense and populated ones than Houston. (Formerly Ahead of Us) So by the time Houston becomes heavly dense and populated, we would have become the true biggest city in the United States.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My thoughts exactly. We are already gobbling up land like no tomorrow, and then imagine a world where all this land is now filled with a density equal to NYC or Shanghai or Tokyo. I am not saying I am wishing for this, I am just conjecturing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was not spelling too wll yesterday.

As a child I innocently perceived the beltway to be the very edge of Houston, because I went no farther on my bicycle than to collect the dewberries that came in on the heavily-disturbed site of the future tollway. Of course development had already overleapt it. Still, geometry lesson aside, the Grand Parkway is more distant than I would have guessed the next loop to be. Houston must have skipped a round of loop-building.

I assume sprawl's image problem will be an artifact of the last century, not something planners need concern themselves with now, with silly talk of density.

But if the image problem does persist, I think it will be because of the interstates. They really are so dispiriting, and not just to aesthetes. I would love for planners to come down from their tower and focus on ways to make sprawl "pretty." Okay, less obnoxious.

In hated Austin, the 130 toll road bypass no one's much using incorporated some features to limit roadside crap. I think there are designated commercial plazas or something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My thoughts exactly. We are already gobbling up land like no tomorrow, and then imagine a world where all this land is now filled with a density equal to NYC or Shanghai or Tokyo. I am not saying I am wishing for this, I am just conjecturing.

 

It is going to take a long time to have as much density as NYC but on the bright side NYC is 468 sq miles which reduces the amount of sq miles we will need to catch up to them. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe (although not a complete loop) the next semi-circle after Beltway 8 is Highway 6/FM 1960.

 

 

I like that map.

 

To invert the aphorism, perhaps the feature is a bug.

 

Our build whatever wherever approach lets property value be realized quickly, I'd imagine designated plazas come with restrictions, not the least of which being situated next to an unused highway.

 

I always had the impression that around here, roads were built/expanded when public outcry pushed for it, and then the particulars of routing and access points were determined based upon which real estate devolper had the most pull with the planners. Roadside crap was baked in from the get-go.

Vr

I've lived here my whole life though, so macro scale visual aesthetics are something of a foreign concept.

 

Maybe it was the group Scenic Texas that won some restrictions? A first, as far as I know. 

I think SH130 was, actually, immaculately conceived of by TxDOT, in order to exercise its new funding mechanism.

"It's a good way to get to Luling." 

From where?

"Georgetown."

There is not much traffic on 130 yet. Small aircraft in trouble have made emergency landings on it without incident.

After it was in progress, the idea took hold that it would get the trucks off I-35 through Austin, but the truck drivers have not yet shown a willingness to go well out of their way and pay 20 to thirty dollars for the privilege. Recently it was decided to offer trucks the passenger car rate for one year to drum up business.

Some have suggested turning the toll road into the free interstate, and vice-versa, but it is leased for fifty years to the Spanish company that built it, which asks: "Can you love a road?"

http://mysh130.com/segments-5-6/project-benefits/

 

Macro-scale aesthetics were a completely foreign concept to me as well. I'm told I would like New England, but my preference is firmly set: I associate beauty with an absence of manmade things (except, like Dave Brower, I find telephone poles and train tracks copacetic).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe (although not a complete loop) the next semi-circle after Beltway 8 is Highway 6/FM 1960.

houstonmap.gif

Yes, I agree Hwy 6 was to be the next loop, but, business owners nixed it. I know this because my sister owned a few Baskin Robbins along this tract and she and a lot of other business owners fought hard to not have a "super highway" replace the 6 lane Hwy. Consequently, we get Grand Parkway 99,...which leads me to wonder if that is a carte blanc to go crazy with HTown suburban development.....let the unimpeded development begin!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So when it comes to 5 plus storey developments being proposed or under current construction in and around the HTown metro area, is it safe to call it a boom? A mini or infill boom? I know I am skewed in my perception because my daily route includes I10 west to Sam Houston tollway to 59 south to Sugarland and my monthly routine takes me to The Woodlands and Atascocita. But it seems development is really heating up in Houston. I knew great things were coming for us based on articles I read in TX Monthly, Forbes and believe it or not ! The New Yorker. I just thought it was going to be later than sooner. Your thoughts? Or is it that we have several projects going now and then will see nothing for two years after all the current construction is completed?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I initially thought all of these projects were a little much until I recently helped my wife's cousin find an apartment (new job is bringing him to Houston). I called around and learned that everywhere is full and leases are sky-high. I used to live in an apt in the loop and rent several years ago is nothing to where it is now. I was quoted $1900/month for a 600 sq ft apt over near Allen Parkway. Pretty much anywhere considered decent was at least a minimum of $1300 for a tiny one bedroom. Apparently there are thousands of people like him (young, single, lots of disposable income) coming to Houston because that's where the jobs are. In fact, he'll be out of country every-other-month for the job... but those employers have setup shop in town and are hiring like crazy.

 

Other professions like healthare are also booming. I live near the Med Center and I keep seeing new families move in every day where at least someone is a doctor. Just look at all of the construction going on in the Med Center and that will give you some idea as to the expansions taking place.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trust me, it's mind-boggling.  My apartment complex is being torn down next month, and I'm stressing out trying to find a place.  I really wanted to stay in Montrose because I like the area and flexibility of not having to use my car all the time, but I'm not sure I can do it. Everyone moving to Houston is snapping up apartments like pigeons on a tin of bread crumbs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trust me, it's mind-boggling.  My apartment complex is being torn down next month, and I'm stressing out trying to find a place.  I really wanted to stay in Montrose because I like the area and flexibility of not having to use my car all the time, but I'm not sure I can do it. Everyone moving to Houston is snapping up apartments like pigeons on a tin of bread crumbs. 

You're always welcome to come back to the east end!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh man, now you've jinxed it for us.  Did you have to say it?

 

Once things get tagged with the b-word, be it Boom or Bubble, there's only one b-word outcome: Bust. 

 

I remember this discussion taking place back in '07 or '08 on the forum, if it was finally time to use the "B-word" due to all of the proposals and construction that was taking place.

 

Yeah.

 

My approach is simply this: Just sit back and relax. Take in all of the proposals and don't get your heart attached to any of them or their renderings as proposed. There are differences in terms of the market from this cycle compared to the last, but still, fair warning that nothing lasts forever.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While all the job creation and growth has caught up with the demand that we had over the last couple years, I wouldn't call it a boom. We are growing but slowly and cautiously. Had the projects proposed circa Jan.08 been built full scale now, i'd say yeah, mini boom. Baby Boom. lol Remember we had a couple of crazy and wild plans floating around. An 80 Story supertall in Uptown, along with an 800ft. twisting Ritz Carlton. Once we start getting these crazy ego plans, I'd call it a boom.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks to all. Much to consider. And yeah, a 98 storey in DT, an 80 storey in UT and a 60 storey in MT; that would be considered a boom akin to the early 80s. I do like the infill though.

Have you all checked out the pop projections for zones 1 through 4? 2020 is going to be very interesting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks to all. Much to consider. And yeah, a 98 storey in DT, an 80 storey in UT and a 60 storey in MT; that would be considered a boom akin to the early 80s. I do like the infill though.

Have you all checked out the pop projections for zones 1 through 4? 2020 is going to be very interesting.

Provide me with a link please.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm assuming that you're talking about the growth of the Houston metro area, not necessarily the city limits.  Looking 25 years out, I'd guess at the following assuming that there's no major economic changes.   This assumes the Houston population gets to the much discussed 10 million number in that timeframe.

 

West - the Energy Corridor , Memorial City, and Westchase continue to develop into a major urban center of the city, similar to the way that Anaheim has developed in Los Angeles.  Increased density all the way out to Grand Parkway with suburban development continuing out to Sealy which is basically the edge of a commute zone to the energy corridor.

 

Northwest - Office park, light industrial development along the Grand Parkway with a high probability of a major Generation Park like development along either the 249 or 290 corridor around the Grand Parkway.  Suburban development out to about Hempstead. 

 

North - The Woodlands area continues to develop into a major urban center and the distinction between Conroe and The Woodlands continues to disappear.  Suburban growth continues out past Conroe, but Huntsville is still outside of the Houston Metro.

 

Northeast - development in New Caney and the growth of the Generation Park area drives suburban development out to Cleveland.  Lots of talk about growth on the 105 corridor between Conroe and Cleveland.

 

East - some modest development, but no major growth outside of current areas as the majority of the development occurs to the West. 

 

South - lots of infill, but no major changes to the boundaries of the urban area.

 

Southwest - Sugarland continues to develop into an urban area, but does not develop into a major job center and does not drive suburban development beyond the general Rosenberg area.

 

Center - population inside the loop doubles with the expected increases in density and gentrification.  Areas with urban density continue to develop out toward the beltway as low - mid range families are increasingly driven outside the loop.  SW Houston continues to be the densest area in the city with a high number of mid-rise low income apartment developments.

 

 

Discuss

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm assuming that you're talking about the growth of the Houston metro area, not necessarily the city limits.  Looking 25 years out, I'd guess at the following assuming that there's no major economic changes.   This assumes the Houston population gets to the much discussed 10 million number in that timeframe.

 

West - the Energy Corridor , Memorial City, and Westchase continue to develop into a major urban center of the city, similar to the way that Anaheim has developed in Los Angeles.  Increased density all the way out to Grand Parkway with suburban development continuing out to Sealy which is basically the edge of a commute zone to the energy corridor.

 

Northwest - Office park, light industrial development along the Grand Parkway with a high probability of a major Generation Park like development along either the 249 or 290 corridor around the Grand Parkway.  Suburban development out to about Hempstead. 

 

North - The Woodlands area continues to develop into a major urban center and the distinction between Conroe and The Woodlands continues to disappear.  Suburban growth continues out past Conroe, but Huntsville is still outside of the Houston Metro.

 

Northeast - development in New Caney and the growth of the Generation Park area drives suburban development out to Cleveland.  Lots of talk about growth on the 105 corridor between Conroe and Cleveland.

 

East - some modest development, but no major growth outside of current areas as the majority of the development occurs to the West. 

 

South - lots of infill, but no major changes to the boundaries of the urban area.

 

Southwest - Sugarland continues to develop into an urban area, but does not develop into a major job center and does not drive suburban development beyond the general Rosenberg area.

 

Center - population inside the loop doubles with the expected increases in density and gentrification.  Areas with urban density continue to develop out toward the beltway as low - mid range families are increasingly driven outside the loop.  SW Houston continues to be the densest area in the city with a high number of mid-rise low income apartment developments.

 

 

Discuss

 

All of this sounds pretty much right to me.  The urban area doesn't have to expand that much to get us from 6m to 10m.  But what about southeast/Clear Lake?  NASA has been a declining force, but waterfront is waterfront...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


All of the HAIF
None of the ads!
HAIF+
Just
$5!


×
×
  • Create New...