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On 8/17/2021 at 12:32 PM, Houston19514 said:

More fun facts from the 2020 Census:

The population in the Houston CBD stood at 7423 (not including group housing, which for downtown is primarily jails).

The population inside the Loop is right at 500,000.

Wow, I was kinda wondering when inner loop would hit 500k people. What areas are primarily driving the growth, or is it just sorta spread out over the whole area? 
 

IIRC wasn’t the previous highest-ever inner loop population just under 500k in the 1960s? That is awesome that people are moving to the “core” area and revitalizing it more. 
 

I read that the inner loop population in 2010 was 443,949 people. So in 10 years, it added just over 50k people to what’s already a pretty built-out area.

Sorta related but I’m super curious to see numbers for the Uptown/Galleria area.

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55 minutes ago, BEES?! said:

Wow, I was kinda wondering when inner loop would hit 500k people. What areas are primarily driving the growth, or is it just sorta spread out over the whole area? 
 

IIRC wasn’t the previous highest-ever inner loop population just under 500k in the 1960s? That is awesome that people are moving to the “core” area and revitalizing it more. 
 

I read that the inner loop population in 2010 was 443,949 people. So in 10 years, it added just over 50k people to what’s already a pretty built-out area.

Sorta related but I’m super curious to see numbers for the Uptown/Galleria area.

Paging @Houston19514 I'm trying to find your loop stats but failing, so what was the increase from 2010 til now? And thats incredible @BEES?!if this is nearing the most people who ever lived in the loop!

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15 hours ago, X.R. said:

Paging @Houston19514 I'm trying to find your loop stats but failing, so what was the increase from 2010 til now? And thats incredible @BEES?!if this is nearing the most people who ever lived in the loop!

I haven't found the 2010 numbers by census tract, so can't do the comparison.  I feel like I have a spread sheet stored in my computer somewhere, but haven't been able to track it down.  The 2020 numbers I put together from a Census Tract map.

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 non-Hispanic white population of the Houston metro area from 1990 to 2010 (from Kinder Institute report and US Census populations). 

1990:  57.9% = 1,911,822

2000:  482% = 2,013,125

2010:  39.7% = 2,350,405

 

I finally found 2020 census demographic breakdowns:

2020:  33.7% --  2,399,963 

 

A little more detail.  As I mentioned upthread, Harris County's non-Hispanic white population has been declining for some time.  But the non-Hispanic white population of most of the suburban counties continues to grow:

Harris:  down 3%

Fort Bend:  up 15.6%

Montgomery:  up 14.4%

Galveston:  up 10.8%

Brazoria:  down 2.9%

Liberty:  down 4.4%

Chambers:  up 20.6%

Austin:  down 0.9%

Waller:  up 21.7%

Edited by Houston19514
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On 8/19/2021 at 5:37 PM, X.R. said:

Paging @Houston19514 I'm trying to find your loop stats but failing, so what was the increase from 2010 til now? And thats incredible @BEES?!if this is nearing the most people who ever lived in the loop!

I found the 2010 numbers.

2010 population inside the Loop:  454,102

2020:  504,489

11.1% growth.

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37 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

I found the 2010 numbers.

2010 population inside the Loop:  454,102

2020:  504,489

11.1% growth.

That is really good. 50k people is a ton!

I'm used to downloading ACS data, but I don't see similar files on population by census tract on census.gov. Where did you get the tract data? I'd love to do a visualization in ArcMAP

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12 minutes ago, wilcal said:

That is really good. 50k people is a ton!

I'm used to downloading ACS data, but I don't see similar files on population by census tract on census.gov. Where did you get the tract data? I'd love to do a visualization in ArcMAP

https://data.dispatch.com/census/total-population/total-population-change/census-tract-2125-harris-county-texas/140-48201212500/

 

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3 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

That will save me the effort lol.

NE corner of Midtown is really interesting

6QY9u0w.png

 

Number of housing units went from 913 to 1532, but total population dropped from 2499 to 2484. Huh?

So the average occupied unit in 2010 had 2.91 people but the average unit in 2020 had 1.91?

That seems unlikely to me!

zVHMExE.png

 

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15 hours ago, wilcal said:

That will save me the effort lol.

NE corner of Midtown is really interesting

6QY9u0w.png

 

Number of housing units went from 913 to 1532, but total population dropped from 2499 to 2484. Huh?

So the average occupied unit in 2010 had 2.91 people but the average unit in 2020 had 1.91?

That seems unlikely to me!

zVHMExE.png

 

Check the group quarters numbers?  I don’t see the 2010 group quarters population.  196 in group homes in 2020.   Maybe there were more group quarters residents in 2010?

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5 hours ago, wilcal said:

That will save me the effort lol.

NE corner of Midtown is really interesting

6QY9u0w.png

 

Number of housing units went from 913 to 1532, but total population dropped from 2499 to 2484. Huh?

So the average occupied unit in 2010 had 2.91 people but the average unit in 2020 had 1.91?

That seems unlikely to me!

zVHMExE.png

 

That sounds like families moving out and singles or couples moving in.  What does the residential real estate look like in that block 2010 vs 2020?

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14 hours ago, august948 said:

That sounds like families moving out and singles or couples moving in.  What does the residential real estate look like in that block 2010 vs 2020?

New units certainly skew apartments over townhomes, but I don't think very much of the existing housing stock was replaced. Mostly infill.

3 hours ago, Houston19514 said:

It seems unlikely there were that many more families in that neighborhood in 2010 than 2020.

Maybe a few moving out, but not that many. Number of occupied housing units went up by 51% (860 to 1,300) yet pop went down by 15. It would be like if the same number of residents spread out into those 50% extra units plus losing 15 people. 

There is some ACS data for age/household size/etc but I'm feeling too lazy to look it up.

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18 hours ago, wilcal said:

New units certainly skew apartments over townhomes, but I don't think very much of the existing housing stock was replaced. Mostly infill.

Maybe a few moving out, but not that many. Number of occupied housing units went up by 51% (860 to 1,300) yet pop went down by 15. It would be like if the same number of residents spread out into those 50% extra units plus losing 15 people. 

There is some ACS data for age/household size/etc but I'm feeling too lazy to look it up.

Yeah, I think there must have been some additional group quarters housing in 2010 that has since moved elsewhere or reduced their residency.

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23 hours ago, Houston19514 said:

It seems unlikely there were that many more families in that neighborhood in 2010 than 2020.

You might be surprised. We lived in that area from the end 1998 through mid-2004. Once our kid turned 2, we started looking elsewhere for a house with a bigger yard and fewer street people. I think that is the normal course of events.

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52 minutes ago, Ross said:

You might be surprised. We lived in that area from the end 1998 through mid-2004. Once our kid turned 2, we started looking elsewhere for a house with a bigger yard and fewer street people. I think that is the normal course of events.

Yes, but wouldn't the normal course of events likely lead to a similar quantity of young families/newlyweds moving in as those with toddlers move out? There does not seem to have been any reduction in family housing stock since 2010 that would have caused there to be significantly fewer families in this neighborhood now than in 2010.

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1 hour ago, Houston19514 said:

Yes, but wouldn't the normal course of events likely lead to a similar quantity of young families/newlyweds moving in as those with toddlers move out? There does not seem to have been any reduction in family housing stock since 2010 that would have caused there to be significantly fewer families in this neighborhood now than in 2010.

There may also be a timing issue with the census, given it occurs every 10 years. Depending on when the kids are born, they won't get picked up in the census. It might be useful to do an analysis based on ages.

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I found a little useful information, but not yet a definitive answer to the Census Tract 3125.01 quandary.

Apparently 3125.01 and 3125.02 were created from what in the 2010 census was 3125.  Comparing the 2010 numbers for 3125 with the aggregate 2020 numbers for .01 and .02:

2010:  Total Population: 4,235.  Total Housing Units:  1,818.  Occupied Housing Units:  1,622.  Population in Group Quarters:  1,367.  Population in Households:  2,868

2020:  Total Population: 4,868.  Total Housing Units:  2,587.  Occupied Housing Units:  2,152.  Population in Group Quarters:  1,066.  Population in Households:  3,802

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45 minutes ago, Houston19514 said:

I found a little useful information, but not yet a definitive answer to the Census Tract 3125.01 quandary.

Apparently 3125.01 and 3125.02 were created from what in the 2010 census was 3125.  Comparing the 2010 numbers for 3125 with the aggregate 2020 numbers for .01 and .02:

2010:  Total Population: 4,235.  Total Housing Units:  1,818.  Occupied Housing Units:  1,622.  Population in Group Quarters:  1,367.  Population in Households:  2,868

2020:  Total Population: 4,868.  Total Housing Units:  2,587.  Occupied Housing Units:  2,152.  Population in Group Quarters:  1,066.  Population in Households:  3,802

That rings much more true to me.

2010 household size of 2.61 to 2020 household size of 2.26 and a pop increase of 15% but with an housing unit increase of 42%.

Pretty common for household size to drop like this in urban cores from this census evidently. 

 

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On 8/21/2021 at 12:37 PM, Houston19514 said:

 non-Hispanic white population of the Houston metro area from 1990 to 2010 (from Kinder Institute report and US Census populations). 

1990:  57.9% = 1,911,822

2000:  482% = 2,013,125

2010:  39.7% = 2,350,405

 

I finally found 2020 census demographic breakdowns:

2020:  33.7% --  2,399,963 

 

A little more detail.  As I mentioned upthread, Harris County's non-Hispanic white population has been declining for some time.  But the non-Hispanic white population of most of the suburban counties continues to grow:

Harris:  down 3%

Fort Bend:  up 15.6%

Montgomery:  up 14.4%

Galveston:  up 10.8%

Brazoria:  down 2.9%

Liberty:  down 4.4%

Chambers:  up 20.6%

Austin:  down 0.9%

Waller:  up 21.7%

That looks like stagnation to me. Metro area post-2010 experiences its biggest employment boom since the early 80's and white population barely increases. I would predict that this decade, without another boom, it will decrease (maybe substantially), especially now that most local political leadership has switched to Democrat.  

I'm curious whether the definition of the metro area changed at all between 1990 and 2010. Were Waller and Austin counties part of it in 1990?

 

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3 hours ago, H-Town Man said:

That looks like stagnation to me. Metro area post-2010 experiences its biggest employment boom since the early 80's and white population barely increases. I would predict that this decade, without another boom, it will decrease (maybe substantially), especially now that most local political leadership has switched to Democrat.  

I'm curious whether the definition of the metro area changed at all between 1990 and 2010. Were Waller and Austin counties part of it in 1990?

 

Come On What GIF by MOODMAN

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15 hours ago, BeerNut said:

Come On What GIF by MOODMAN

Is it really not clear? White people are majority Republican. When they see the politics of elected leaders change, they are more likely to think it's "not their city/county anymore" and leave. This is how it has played out in other places. 

I do think that a relevant factor that the statistics don't show is the mixed-race component of the population, especially people who are maybe half-white, half-Hispanic. This suggests that, even as the white population dwindles to 30% and below, they are not as likely to shift from slow-speed white flight to fast white-flight (as happened in St. Louis, etc.) because they do not feel as outnumbered. Although they only constitute 33% currently, it probably feels more like 40-50% because of the number of people whose appearance and culture are quite similar.

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7 minutes ago, H-Town Man said:

Is it really not clear? White people are majority Republican. When they see the politics of elected leaders change, they are more likely to think it's "not their city/county anymore" and leave. This is how it has played out in other places. 

I do think that a relevant factor that the statistics don't show is the mixed-race component of the population, especially people who are maybe half-white, half-Hispanic. This suggests that, even as the white population dwindles to 30% and below, they are not as likely to shift from slow-speed white flight to fast white-flight (as happened in St. Louis, etc.) because they do not feel as outnumbered. Although they only constitute 33% currently, it probably feels more like 40-50% because of the number of people whose appearance and culture are quite similar.

This is not grounded in any facts. We also haven't had a republican mayor since 1981. If anything, people are upset white people are moving into their inner loop neighborhoods (i.e. gentrification).

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16 minutes ago, Montrose1100 said:

This is not grounded in any facts. We also haven't had a republican mayor since 1981. If anything, people are upset white people are moving into their inner loop neighborhoods (i.e. gentrification).

Is the mayor the only local leader? Most white people in the Houston metro live outside the city limits; their local leaders are the county commissioners and congressional representatives. I think that seeing county leadership change from Republican to Democrat and getting into things like opposing major transportation projects because they displace minority homes is something that gives white suburbanites the feeling, "This is not my county anymore." There are still some Republican congressional representatives like Crenshaw, but some notable districts like the 7th Congressional have switched over. These positions played a huge role over the years in championing the "suburban paradigm" of being pro-highway, anti-rail, anti- "big government," etc. (Think of John Culberson's role in the Katy Freeway expansion and opposition to rail.)

I get the feeling some of you think I'm saying things that I'm not saying, viz. that any of this is good or bad. The only possible bad I see in this for Houston is if there is a loss in investment to the area, as has happened historically in other "white flight" places. White people tend to control a disproportionate share of investment dollars. But I don't see this happening at this point for some of the reasons mentioned.

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1 hour ago, H-Town Man said:

Is the mayor the only local leader? Most white people in the Houston metro live outside the city limits; their local leaders are the county commissioners and congressional representatives. I think that seeing county leadership change from Republican to Democrat and getting into things like opposing major transportation projects because they displace minority homes is something that gives white suburbanites the feeling, "This is not my county anymore." There are still some Republican congressional representatives like Crenshaw, but some notable districts like the 7th Congressional have switched over. These positions played a huge role over the years in championing the "suburban paradigm" of being pro-highway, anti-rail, anti- "big government," etc. (Think of John Culberson's role in the Katy Freeway expansion and opposition to rail.)

I get the feeling some of you think I'm saying things that I'm not saying, viz. that any of this is good or bad. The only possible bad I see in this for Houston is if there is a loss in investment to the area, as has happened historically in other "white flight" places. White people tend to control a disproportionate share of investment dollars. But I don't see this happening at this point for some of the reasons mentioned.

I get what you're saying, just think you're painting a broad stroke. Don't think what you're saying is bad or good, just wrong ;). We're not St Louis, and we're not Detroit, and our economic engine is still humming.

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16 minutes ago, Montrose1100 said:

I get what you're saying, just think you're painting a broad stroke. Don't think what you're saying is bad or good, just wrong ;). We're not St Louis, and we're not Detroit, and our economic engine is still humming.

Yes... and I've been pointing out why I think our situation is different than St. Louis and Detroit, and why what happened to them probably won't happen to us.

 

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